Welcome to the all-star break. Almost. We’ve technically still got three nights to go, but the schedule for the rest of the week is very light, with only six games over the next three nights before we all head to Toronto. With all due respect to marquee matchups like Sens/Preds, Blue Jackets/Blues and Sharks/Ducks, it feels like we can start shifting our attention to the break.
As you know by now, the NHL has shifted things around this year. Will it work? That’s to be determined, but here’s five things I’m looking forward to when I head down to Toronto to take it all in.
We’ve got 11 games on tap tonight, including six of the seven Canadian teams in action. With the races tightening and the trade deadline looming, it’s getting tense out there. So let’s try to keep things calm by starting with two teams that are pretty much already in the playoffs…
HNIC Game of the Night: Maple Leafs at Penguins
It’s officially time to be afraid of the Penguins again.
After two straight Stanley Cups, they were kind enough to give us a bit of a break early in the season. The Pens stumbled out of the gate, including an embarrassing 10-1 loss to the Blackhawks during the season’s first week, and never seemed quite right through the first few months. As late as the first week of January, they’d lost more games than they’d won. They were dipping in and out of a wild-card spot, and GM Jim Rutherford was reportedly ready to make major changes to try to save the season.
But while it didn’t seem like it at the time, a 4-0 win over the Islanders on Jan. 5 now looks like a turning point. They followed that by beating a red-hot Bruins team in overtime, then added wins over the Red Wings and Rangers. They’ve stayed hot ever since — they haven’t lost two straight since the end of December. In all, the Penguins are rolling to the tune of a 13-3-1 record during the stretch, blowing by the wild-card traffic jam and putting them within range of the Capitals for the Metro title.
And they’ve looked scary doing it, scoring five or more goals seven times and winning eight games by three goals or more. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are back to their old selves after slow starts, and Phil Kessel continues to rack up the points.
Maybe most frightening of all, they’re still not at their best. Matt Murray has been much better lately, but has still been inconsistent. If he were to heat up, the Penguins might start to look unbeatable. Then again, Murray tends to do his best work in the playoffs, and that’s where he and his team are headed. At this rate, they’ll be back among the favourites once they get there.
The Maple Leafs are headed to the post-season too, although their status as legitimate contenders is still in question. It’s been a weird season for Toronto, who’ve spent much of the year all but locked into the third spot in the Atlantic. The Leafs are trying to make that interesting, taking a run at the Lightning and Bruins in an effort to at least land home-ice advantage in the first round, although that’s still a longshot. But with nine wins in their last ten and two lines filling the net, they’re at least looking more like the team that was briefly considered a Stanley Cup favourite back in October. That stretch has included wins over a couple of legitimate Cup contenders in the Predators and Lightning. Tonight, they get a shot at another one.
It all adds up to a good test for both teams, and a decent measuring stick of where we’re at in an Eastern Conference that suddenly seems wide open. We’ll hold off on any conference final preview hyperbole for now, since the Lightning, Bruins and Capitals will all have something to say about that. But if both of these teams keep rolling the way they have, we make no promises about where the hype machine may be at when they face off again three weeks from now.
If you’re the sort of fan who enjoys a good trade rumour, these days it’s all about the blue line.
That’s not all that unusual – in today’s NHL, it always feels like just about everyone needs help on defence. But for a change, we’re not just talking about depth pieces or short-term rentals. Instead, it’s some of the biggest names in the sport who are rumoured to potentially be available. In Ottawa, there’s been talk that Erik Karlsson could move at some point before he hits free agency in 2019. Arizona is facing a similar dilemma with Oliver Ekman-Larsson. And the slumping Penguins are now reported to at least be considering a move involving Kris Letang.
That’s not to say that any of those trades will happen, of course. But it’s rare to even see names of this magnitude show up in discussions at all. After all, as we’re so often told, nobody trades elite defencemen in their prime in this league.
Or do they? It turns out, trades involving top defencemen have been more common than you might think.
So today, let’s crack open the history books for a look at some of the times in NHL history that an elite defenceman was traded in his prime. We’re looking for guys who were established stars, which we’ll define as already having at least one post-season all-star pick or multiple top-five Norris finishes in their career. We also want players who were still relatively young, which we’ll say means they were 32 or younger. That rules out guys who were traded later in their career, like Brian Leetch and Ray Bourque, as well as some who blossomed into top-tier stars after they were traded, like Ryan McDonagh and Brent Burns. But it still leaves us with a surprisingly long list of candidates.
Here are 10 times in the last 30 years than an elite defenceman was traded in his prime, and what those deals might teach us about what to expect from today’s rumoured moves.
Paul Coffey
The trade: We have plenty of trades to choose from with Coffey, who was traded seven times. We’ll go with his first, the 1987 deal that saw the Oilers send him along with Dave Hunter and Wayne Van Dorp to Pittsburgh for Craig Simpson, Dave Hannan, Moe Mantha and prospect Chris Joseph.
The reason: Coffey was a two-time Norris winner at the age of 26 and had been a key part of three Edmonton championships, but by the start of the 1987-88 season he was holding out in a contract dispute. The Oilers made him wait until November as they worked to get a top asset back; they found one in Simpson, a 21-year-old who’d been the first-overall pick two years earlier.
The result: This trade allowed Simpson to become the first player to ever score 50 goals in a season split between two teams. But over time, Coffey had the greater impact, including three 90-point seasons, and he helped the Penguins win their first Stanley Cup.
The lesson: Sometimes, your hand is forced and you just have to bite the bullet and do the best you can. Under the circumstances, the Oilers did OK on this deal.
Rob Blake
The trade: In February 2001, the Kings sent Blake and Steve Reinprecht to Colorado for Adam Deadmarsh, Aaron Miller, a player to be named later and two first-round picks.
The reason: Blake was a pending UFA and wanted big money, so Kings ownership decided to move him even though the team was contending for a playoff spot.
The result: The deal worked out great for the Avs, who won the Cup that year and then re-signed Blake for five more seasons. The Kings didn’t get much from the deal – Deadmarsh had his career cut short by injuries and the picks turned into Dave Steckel and Brian Boyle – but did get Blake back for a few years at the end of his career.
The lesson: When a Norris-calibre player becomes available, sometimes going all-in pays off. The Avalanche had already traded for Bourque the year before, so they were firmly in all-or-nothing mode. They ended up with “all”, and have a banner to show for it. Remember that when contenders start to hem and haw about the asking price for Karlsson or Ekman-Larsson being too high.
Retired numbers can be a funny thing. Some are slam dunks, with guys like Teemu Selanne and Martin Brodeur seeing their numbers go up to the rafters almost immediately. Other times, a closer call like Adam Graves or Bob Plager will wait years before a team decides that they're worthy of the honor. Some teams like to wait, others like to move quickly. And every once in a while, a team will even retire 17 numbers in one shot.
And then there are the cases where a player who seems to have a strong case to be honored ends up going years without getting the call, to the point where it starts to look like it may not come at all. So today, let's look at five players who've been out of the league for a while now, but have yet to see their numbers retired by the team they made their names with.
Kevin Lowe, Oilers
For most franchises, winning five Stanley Cups would be more than enough to get a player's number into the rafters. But the Oilers aren't just any team, and when you dominate most of a decade like they did in the 1980s, you might have higher standards.
Still, even without his five Edmonton Cup rings (plus one more with the Rangers), Lowe has a solid case. He was a pretty darn good player; while he never won a Norris, he did play in seven All-Star Games. And he's the franchise's all-time leader in games played, and ranks behind only Paul Coffey in points by a defenseman. On the other hand, he's not in the Hockey Hall of Fame yet, and every member of that Oilers dynasty to have their number retired is in the Hall.
Lowe is still a member of the Oilers' organization, having been the team's GM for years and serving as president now, and that could complicate things; nobody wants to see a ceremony that feels like a team executive is honoring themselves. But there seems to be a growing sense that Lowe deserves his moment. Remember, no Oiler wore Lowe's No. 4 until first overall pick Taylor Hall arrived in 2010 (which was controversial at the time).
Paul Kariya, Ducks
We could go back and forth on the qualifications of some of the players on this list. But Kariya isn't in that category. He's quite possibly the greatest player in Ducks history, and was the face of the franchise for its first decade or so. With his recent (and overdue) selection to Hall of Fame, he should be a sure thing.
But in this case, there's more to the decision than stats and individual honors. Kariya's time in Anaheim ended abruptly, with the star winger bolting in free agency after leading the team to the 2003 Cup final. That led to some bad feelings on both sides, and Kariya has had a rocky relationship with the league in general since his early retirement due to concussions.
These days, it sounds like the Ducks are ready to make peace, but Kariya remains (in the words of close friend Teemu Selanne) "very bitter about hockey". Maybe his HHOF induction presents an opportunity to mend some fences, and Kariya and the Ducks can eventually get back on good enough terms that the star is willing to participate in a number retirement ceremony. Until that day comes, his No. 9 will be conspicuous by its absence in Anaheim.
In the Friday Grab Bag:
- Connor McDavid is going to sign for a ton of money tomorrow. Should he have taken less to help his team win?
- The NHL's free agent negotiation window is weird
- An obscure player that was born the day Canada turned 100
- The week's three comedy stars
- And we go back ten years in the YouTube section to revisit the day that NHL free agency went bad
In the Friday Grab Bag:
- The Oilers come up with a brilliant new way to screw over their fans, and I love it
- NHL teams sure love hiring former star players for critical front office jobs
- An obscure player who waited 14 years for his shot at the big leagues
- The week's three comedy stars, including some Phil Kessel payback
- And please rise and remove your caps for the singing of the playoff national anthem
It really did seem like it was going to be the San Jose Sharks‘ year.
Just a few weeks ago, they were resting up after dispatching the favoured Los Angeles Kings in a surprisingly swift five games. When the Nashville Predators knocked off the Anaheim Ducks in seven, that set San Jose up with an unexpected home ice advantage, and they used it to jump out to a 2-0 series lead. After years of playoff disappointment, it looked like everything was falling into place for the Sharks to finally exceed expectations, and maybe even win the franchise’s first Stanley Cup.
Things change quickly in the post-season. After failing to close out the series in Nashville on Monday, the Sharks now face a Game 7 tonight — one that most didn’t think they’d need against the wildcard Predators.
The Sharks still head into tonight as the favourite; they’ve got home ice, and have won all three games played at the SAP Center in the series. They’re the better team on paper. And a win would send them to a Conference Final matchup against the St. Louis Blues that they’d have a good chance to win.
But a loss… a loss, and we’re right back to where we always seems to be with this team. So today, let’s take a look back over the Sharks’ history of playoff disappointment.
1991 – 1999: THE EARLY YEARS
The team: We’ll lump the first eight years of franchise history into one entry, since they really didn’t have anything to do with the Sharks’ current reputation. After two years of record-breaking expansion futility, the Sharks broke through with their first decent season in 1993-94, making the playoffs and then shocking the Detroit Red Wings in the opening round.
They’d win another round in 1995, this time against the Calgary Flames in a Game 7 OT, before suffering through two more miserable years followed by two years of first round exits.
The disappointment: Any playoff loss hurts, but it would be hard to call any of these post-season performances a disappointment. The Sharks were never favoured, and in fact were never even a .500 team. And looking back, only their second round matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1994, in which they were one Johan Garpenlov crossbar away from advancing, feels like a series that got away.
Heartbreak rating: 2/10. Sure, the first few years of incompetence were rough. But those upsets against the Red Wings and Flames were fun, and the rest of it pretty much played out according to script.
—
2000
The team: The Sharks crack the .500 mark for the first time in franchise history. That’s enough to sneak them into the playoffs as an eight seed, where they draw the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Blues. Nobody gives them much of a chance, but they jump out to a 3-1 series lead before pulling off a Game 7 upset that’s punctuated with Owen Nolan’s long-distance dagger.
The disappointment: Coming off the high of that win, the Sharks sputter out of the gate against the Dallas Stars in Round 2. They’re shut out in each of the first two games and lose the series in five.
Heartbreak rating: 1/10. Maybe it didn’t end up being a Cinderella run, but that Blues upset was one of the highlights of franchise history.
—
2001
The team: The Sharks record a franchise-best 95 points, and finish second in the Pacific. This version of the team was led by Nolan and a 21-year-old Patrick Marleau, supported by a cast of “Wait, that guy played for the Sharks?” veterans like Gary Suter, Mike Ricci and Vincent Damphousse. Teemu Selanne arrives late in the season, and Evgeni Nabokov earns the Calder Trophy for his work in goal.
The disappointment: In a Round 1 rematch with the Blues, the Sharks drop a six-game series that could have gone either way. The turning point comes in Game 5, in which the Sharks take a 2-1 lead into the third but end up dropping a 3-2 decision on overtime on Bryce Salvador’s winner.
Heartbreak rating: 3/10. Expectations are slowly but surely increasing, and simply making an appearance in the post-season no longer feels like mission accomplished. Still, if you have to lose to someone, it was kind of nice to see it be the Blues. Those guys are stuck with a reputation for never winning anything in the playoffs.
—
2002
The team: The Sharks record 99 points to lead their division for the first time. It’s a veteran group – Adam Graves even makes an appearance – and it leans heavily on its goaltending duo of Nabokov and rookie Miikka Kiprusoff. They make it out of the First Round, beating the then-Phoenix Coyotes in six games and setting up a Second Round meeting with the Colorado Avalanche.
The disappointment: The Sharks lead the series three separate times, but can’t close. They hold a 3-2 series lead heading into Game 6 at home, but lose in overtime on a Peter Forsberg goal in a game marked by a third period earthquake. Then they drop a 1-0 decision in the seventh game, with Selanne missing an open net early on that could have changed the course of the game.
Heartbreak rating: 5/10. The loss to the Avalanche may not have been an upset, but the way it played out left a mark.
—
2003
The team: After what seemed like a breakout season, the Sharks unravel in 2002-03 and miss the playoffs. They fire coach Darryl Sutter in December, and GM Dean Lombardi follows a few months later. Spoiler alert: Those two guys show up again later.
The disappointment: The Sharks don’t even come close to the post-season, finishing 19 points back. They do wind up with two first round picks in the ridiculously stacked 2003 draft, but can only turn them into Milan Michalek and Steve Bernier. The two players taken right after the Sharks’ picks: Ryan Suter and Zach Parise.
Heartbreak rating: 2/10. Disappointment? Definitely. Frustration? Sure. But this can’t really qualify as heartbreak.
—
2004
The team: The Sharks roar back into the playoff picture with a 104-point season. They’re not exactly stacked – Nils Ekman is their second leading scorer – but they’re well-balanced and tough to score on. They beat the Blues and the Avalanche in the opening two rounds to advance to the Conference Final for the first time in franchise history. (That Avs series gets a little dicey – the Sharks take a 3-0 series lead, then lose back-to-back overtime games before winning game six – but otherwise it’s a fairly smooth ride.)
The disappointment: They end up facing the Flames, who are led by a couple of familiar faces: Sutter behind the bench and Kiprusoff in goal. The Sharks are the favorites, and a trip to the Cup final seems in sight. But they drop the first two games of the series at home, and end up losing in six.
Heartbreak rating: 4/10. On the one hand, the franchise is headed in the right direction again. On the other, they let a golden chance at a Final appearance slip through their fingers. They probably can’t wait to get back out there. Sure hope the league doesn’t cancel the next season.
After J.R. said "See you at the 2013 induction!",
Scott held his "Is he serious?" face for 45 minutes.
Today's the day when the Hockey Hall of Fame will introduce us to the Class of 2013.
The Hall's 18-member committee will hold its annual meeting today in Toronto, where they'll be tasked with weighing the pros and cons of the various players, coaches and builders who are eligible for induction. After a series of confidential votes, the committee will announced their selections.
Here's a look at some of the top candidates for induction in the Class of 2013.
Chris Chelios - Is expected to be enshrined alongside Bobby Orr and Doug Harvey and Eddie Shore and other legendary defensemen who grew up idolizing him.
Scott Niedermayer - Is a slam dunk for induction, and will hopefully attend the ceremony if he can take time out of his busy schedule of wandering around Ottawa screaming "I told you so!" at sobbing fans in Daniel Alfredsson jerseys.
Rob Blake - Was a Norris Trophy winner and a Stanley Cup champion and an Olympic gold medalist and a six-time NHL all-star, and also appears briefly in The Love Guru so that's going to have to be a "no".
Brendan Shanahan - Didn't make the cut last year, and can't even begin to tell you how frustrating it is to be a victim of a ridiculous decision from some arbitrary process that nobody even fully understands and isn't even accountable to… um, why is everyone staring at him right now?
With free agency season upon us, all eyes are focused on this year's crop of UFAs. Who'll get the best deal? Who'll bolt for the KHL? Which teams will improve, and which will be left on the sidelines?
We'll know soon enough. But in the meantime, let's remind ourselves of how unpredictable free agency can be by looking back at some notable signings from recent years.
Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Vancouver, 2009 - After signing a last-minute extension with the Canucks, the twins' plans to celebrate with a slice of that big cake that showed up on their doorstep that morning are ruined at 12:01 when Brian Burke awkwardly pops out of it.
Colton Orr, Toronto, 2009 - Orr becomes one of the highest paid enforcers in league history, thanks to a deal with Toronto that pays him a quarter for every time he punches Matt Carkner in the face.
Marion Gaborik, New York, 2009 - The Rangers sign the oft-injured star to a $37.5M deal. While other teams were willing to match the money, the Rangers were the only team to meet Gaborik's demands of a "no playoff-clinching shooutout" clause.
Brian Campbell & Cristobal Huet, Chicago, 2008 - The Blackhawks sign the pair to long-term contracts that most observers feel are significantly overpriced. While many fans fear the contracts will cripple the Hawks, the front office assures fans that the team will be able to stay under the salary cap thanks to careful roster management, judicious use of buyouts, or at least some other team eventually hiring Rick Dudley.
Thomas Vanek, Edmonton, 2007 - After an 84-point season, Vanek signs a $50M offer sheet with the Oilers which the Sabres are forced to match. After realizing how close he came to spending the rest of his career in Edmonton, a shaken Vanek vows to never risk attracting the Oilers' attention again by spending the next several seasons disguised as a second-liner.
Gary Roberts, Toronto, 2000 - Roberts agrees to terms with the Leafs, choosing their contract of just under $3M a season over the Senators' offer of "Oh god, sir, please don't hurt us, take whatever you want and just leave us alone".
Chris Drury and Scott Gomez, New York, 2007 - Upon learning that critics are calling the signings the worst free agent contracts that are even theoretically possible, Glen Sather mutters "we'll see about that" and circles Wade Redden's name with a yellow highlighter.
Sean Avery, Dallas, 2008 - Upon signing Avery, Stars general manager Brett Hull tells him "Hey, I know you're better known as a Ranger, but we don't mind picking up other teams' sloppy seconds. Ha ha! Um, why are you writing that down?"
Peter Forsberg, Philadelphia, 2005 - Coming out of the NHL lockout, Forsberg shuns the Avalanche to sign with the Flyers. "I really wanted to make the right decision," Forsberg tells reporters, "because I know that the experience of being an unrestricted free agent is one I'll only ever get to have once, maybe twice, per year, for the rest of my career."
Jason Blake, Toronto, 2007 - The Leafs agree to terms with Blake early in the day, although the actual contract signing is delayed several hours due to technical problems after it's discovered that John Ferguson Jr. had earlier tried to fax himself a grilled cheese sandwich.
On Monday, I made my fourth appearance on the world-renowned Hockeenight podcast. My most recent appearance, alongside PPP, was well-received. While we'd hoped to appear together again, this time I ended up going solo due to an unfortunate incident involving PPP being superkicked through a plate glass window.
Topics covered included:
Vesa Toskala: merely bad, or historically bad?
The absolute worst case scenario for the Leafs/Ducks trade (spoiler: there isn't one)
Why the Dion Phaneuf deal is far riskier, but still a good trade
The Cam Barker trade, and whether the Hawks will need to make more cap moves
Olympic men's hockey discussion and predictions
The opening ceremonies in Vancouver, and what may have really caused that torch malfunction
Somebody may or may not have made a horribly inappropriate Olympics joke
The entire podcast getting sidetracked after I receive an unexpected e-mail from Bif Naked
Listen to the whole thing here:
Can't get enough moustache jokes? You can find the rest of my appearances here.
So it's come to this. On the same weekend that my entire house is without internet access except for an ipod that can steal my neighbor's wireless, Brian Burke decides to roll a grenade into the Leafs' locker room. So here I am, blogging from a Starbucks. I'm that guy. You have my permission to punch me in the throat.
We have a lot to talk about. Let's get the easy one out of the way first.
The Anaheim Deal
Great deal. Fantastic deal. A perfect deal. Forget about whether this trade works for the Ducks or not. From the Leafs perspective, it's a masterpiece.
The Leafs improved their weakest position and their cap situation in one deal. Yes, they take on an extra $2M next year. But this team won't be good enough to compete until at least 2011-12, and having a 39-year-old Jason Blake and his $4M off the cap that year is a huge win.
What's the absolute worst-case scenario here? If Giguere is every bit as bad as Toskala, the Leafs are stuck with him for one full year. If he's borderline average, the Leafs will have a cup-winning goalie to dangle at next year's deadline.
But if he can get back to being even a bonafide NHL starter, Burke has worked a miracle.
The Calgary deal
This one is trickier. Dion Phaneuf has had a downright bad year, and it's not hard to imagine him imploding in the Toronto pressure-cooker. He has a long-term deal with a big cap hit, so there's significant risk here.
But here's the flipside: Phaneuf is also a former Calder and Norris contender who's still years away from his prime, and the Leafs gave up shockingly little to get him. Two players who had no future in Toronto past this year, one solid forward who won't be all that hard to replace, and a very good young defenceman. That's it. Oh, and the Leafs picked up a decent prospect in the deal.
Losing Ian White hurts, no doubt. It's not even impossible to imagine that he could be the best player in the deal a few years from now. But that's unlikely, and you have to give up something to get something.
Bottom line: The Leafs are looking to the future, and in terms of longterm impact they basically just traded Ian White for Dion Phaneuf. It's far from a sure thing, but that's just about the ultimate buy low/sell high deal, isn't it?
This feels familiar
It's impossible to look at these two deals without feeling like we're back in the early 90s all over again.
JS Giguere is only slightly older than Grant Fuhr was when the Leafs acquired him in 1991. Both had won Cups. Both had lost their hold on their starting jobs. Both needed a change of scenery. At the time, Cliff Fletcher dismissed concerns about Fuhr's age by pointing out that top goaltenders often play well into their late-30s.
Oh, did we mention that the Leafs gave up a young Vincent Damphousse and more in that deal? Today, the Leafs got Giguere for two guys they would have given away for nothing without blinking an eye.
And then there's the whole "Make a multi-player deal with the Calgary Flames for a potential star who wants out". There's even a mustached defenceman playing a prominent role.
That seemed to work out OK last time.
So what's the impact on the rest of the year?
Short answer: who cares? This season is already over.
Longer answer: Everyone is asking how the Leafs will score now. But they weren't scoring before, at least enough to win. This deal clears out a bunch of older players and makes room for some of the kids to finally show what they can do.
Giguere should help Gustavsson develop. He'll also hurt Gustavsson bargaining position as an RFA, which may save the Leafs a few bucks. Both are good things.
And finally, hopefully the charade of not trading Tomas Kaberle comes to an end. If anyone still believed Burke's ridiculous "I don't ask guys to waive NTCs" stance before today, dealing for Giguere should put that to rest.
If the Leafs can get a decent return for Kaberle, the future may actually look bright. Imagine that.
The bottom line
It took a year and a half, but the Brian Burke era is finally here. It's off to a good start. For the first time in a long time, we can say that today is a good day to be a Leaf fan.
Finally, I've had a bunch of people asking about whether these deals do anything to change my one-month sabbatical from watching the Leafs. Apparently they missed the fine print on that post.
The Florida Panthers' playoff chances: an interpretive dance
Keith Ballard is the talk of the hockey world today, thanks to his bizarre slash to the head that left teammate Tomas Vokoun bleeding on a stretcher.
But while Ballard is certainly an extreme case, he's not the first NHL player to accidentally cause an injury to a teammate. In fact, over the past few years the league has seen several regrettable incidents. Here's a look at some that had the biggest impact.
The player: Jonas Gustavsson The injury: Heart arrhythmia due to repetitive trauma to the middle of his chest What happened: Cumulative effect from a full month of facing Jason Blake in practice every day.
The player: Joe Thornton The injury: Damaged windpipe due to choking What happened: Unaware of strict internal rules regarding team meals, new teammate Dany Heatley mentions the word "playoffs".
The player: Andrei Markov The injury: Sprained MCL What happened: Repetitive strain of constantly having to drop to one knee to hold a conversation with the Habs' various offseason acquisitions.
The player: Brad Boyes The injury: Severe hoof damage across his back What happened: Wandered in between Keith Tkachuk and the post-game buffet.
The player: Alexei Ponikarovsky The injury: Lower back pain, swollen ankles, and gestational diabetes What happened: Accidentally made eye contact with Luke Schenn.
The player: Entire Vancouver Canucks defence The injury: Second and third degree sunburns to the back of the neck. What happened: Were forced to play an entire game in front of Andrew Raycroft.
The player: Rick DiPietro The injury: Multiple fractures, torn ligaments, internal organ failure What happened: Teammate Brendan Witt turned on a rotating fan in the dressing room, causing a light breeze.
The player: Marian Hossa The injury: Lacerations to both wrists What happened: New teammate Patrick Kane introduced himself by saying "Wow, you played for Pittsburgh and Detroit? Can I see your Cup rings?"
The player: Marc Staal The injury: Impaired vision What happened: Learning the details of Wade Redden's free agent contract caused eyes to cartoonishly pop out of head, detaching both retinas.
The player: Daniel Carcillo The injury: Concussion What happened: During a heated debate on the validity of the inferential thesis, Carcillo argues for Gibson's "ecological approach" to the conception of perception, leading Riley Cote (a known advocate of Fodor and Pylyshyn's stance that affordances presuppose direct perception and therefore can not be used to explain it) to hit him over the head with a folding chair.
The player: Chris Neil The injury: Two broken ankles What happened: Instinctively leapt out of eighth floor hotel window after Chris Phillips mentioned that the bellhop kind of looked like Colton Orr.
The player: Chris Drury The injury: Existential crisis What happened: Realization that Sean Avery continues to pull incredibly hot women forced him to question the very existence of a just and merciful god.
The player: Mike Fisher The injury: Broken jaw and fractued orbital bone What happened: Tried to keep a straight face when Daniel Alfredsson delivered his "Go ahead and write it, I guarantee we'll win the Cup" quote.
And while this news may come as a shock to some, sources tell me it's actually been in the making for some time. In fact, Carlton's employee file lists ten problems that contributed to his termination.
Thanks to my spies at the ACC, here's a full list of the reasons behind Carlton's dismissal.
Timing made sense, since comprehensive no-movement clause given to him by John Ferguson Jr. finally expired.
Signature "look" of a dark blue Maple Leafs jersey and no pants was widely acknowledged to have been stolen from Larry Tanenbaum.
Lingering bitterness over that time he killed and ate Vesa Toskala's glove hand.
Was never quite the same after his long-standing franchise raw fish eating record was shattered by Kyle Wellwood.
Saturday night's game didn't quite go they way hockey fans were expecting. With Alexander Ovechkin and the Caps in town to play the last-place Leafs, a blowout seemed inevitable. When it was announced that struggling Vesa Toskala would start for Toronto, even the most die-hard Leaf fans was expecting the Caps to hit double digits.
It didn't happen. Instead, Ovechkin managed a goal but was largely shutdown by the Leafs during an upset 2-1 win for the home side.
Adding to the mystery was Ovechkin's bizarre post-game excuse: that he "couldn't breathe" due to the "atmosphere" inside the ACC. Yes, he really did say that.
Well, it gets even stranger. Because as it turns out, the ACC's suffocating atmosphere was only one of several excuses Ovechkin offered for failing to light up the Leafs as expected. Apparently the local papers didn't print them all due to lack of space, but I've reproduced the full list below.
Had specifically requested his special "too hot to handle" sticks for the game; instead, sticks were only slightly above normal temperature.
Entire Caps team was thrown off when, despite the tendencies they had noted during hours of film study, Vesa Toskala occasionally moved.
Paid too much attention to the fans in the ACCs' lower bowl, leading him to assume the pre-game moment of silence was still going on three hours later.
Was initially intimidated upon learning that the Leafs had spent $24M on their defence; had mistakenly assumed it might include some good players.
Found it hard to concentrate after suddenly getting that "Ovechkin-Laichs-Semin" joke.
Didn't want to single-handedly humiliate Ron Wilson and Brian Burke with completely unstoppable and dominating performance; saving that for Olympics.
Would have scored more, but Jonas Gustavsson kept making sprawling glove saves from the bench.
During pre-game chat, Jason Blake assured him that first-line wingers could float through games in Toronto with absolutely no consequences.
Hasn't quite adjusted to the NHL's brand new "Alexander Ovechkin can't just go around slewfooting everyone" rule.
Had heard a rumor that if the game went to a shootout, entire Leafs roster would embarrass themselves with a ridiculously demeaning attempt at rally caps.
Um, pretty much the same reason Lebron James doesn't dunk on the wheelchair basketball guys.
Maybe I'll pass to Blake. Oh man, I crack myself up.
Phil Kessel made his debut for the Leafs tonight. You may have heard about it, since there were apparently one or two media stories about the whole thing.
The best line of the night came via twitter from @Archimedies, who observed that "Phil Kessel plays like an NHL10 Be A Pro". And he does. Specifically, he plays like me playing Be A Pro. I kept waiting for Kessel to stay on the ice for an entire period, score twice into an empty net and then start a fight with three seconds left to pad his PIM totals.
The Leafs' game plan for Kessel is apparently to play every second shift, generally ignore his linemates, and shoot at every opportunity from every angle.
And here's the thing: I don't think that's a bad plan.
Because even after just a few shifts, it was obvious that Phil Kessel is easily the best player on this team. His game sense is excellent. His release is lightning fast. He has that unteachable ability to drift into exactly the right spot at exactly the right moment.
No, he didn't score tonight. But if he plays like this every night, he'll get his 35 goals easily, and maybe a lot more.
And for those of us still aboard the Leafs bandwagon (or, as it will be known from this point on, the "Kessel Vessel"), that makes tonight a mixed blessing. Because the good news is that Phil Kessel is far better than any other forward the Leafs have to offer.
The bad news is that... well... Phil Kessel is far better than any other forward the Leafs have to offer.
Watching a talent like Kessel go to work, it's hard not to notice the skill gap between him and so-called frontline talent like Mikhail Grabovski or Matt Stajan. The contrast was unmistakable on virtually every shift. It was enough to make me want to take the pen I was using to write "Mrs. Down Goes Gustavsson" in little hearts on my three-ring binder and jam it into my eye.
In short, it's the difference between a true first line talent, and a guy who happens to play on the first line because, well, somebody has to. Kessel is the former. Everyone else on the roster is the latter.
And we knew this already, or course. But we could pretend. Not any more. Not with Kessel buzzing around, reminding us of what a good player actually looks like.
So yes, Phil Kessel seems like the real deal, an elite talent. But he brings the grand total of Leaf forwards in that category to one. And tonight was a reminder that the rest of the bunch aren't even close.
And that's why this team, even with a healthy Phil Kessel, still isn't good enough to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning at home.
It could be worse. [Checks standings.] Wait, I was wrong.
OK, so maybe October didn't go quite as well as it could have.
But that's fine, because now it's November (when it matters). And while some might point out that the Leafs have already fallen so far behind a playoff pace that the rest of the season if essentially futile, I remain optimistic. Because the Leafs still have Ron Wilson, and Ron Wilson has a plan.
How do I know? Because I've seen it. DGB spies found it in his office in a folder labeled "super top secret" and they were kind enough to send me a copy. And because I know that loyal Leaf fans could use some reassurance that everything is under control, I'm reprinting it here.
Here's Ron Wilson's 15-point plan for getting the Leafs back on track:
Have goaltending coaches work extensively with Vesa Toskala on positioning. Specifically, how to position his ass on the end of the bench for the remainder of the season.
Reconsider season-long policy of having the team's penalty kill strategy organized by the NHLPA executive committee.
Keep reminding Brian Burke that coaching a team full of overmatched losers who suffer crushing defeat in every game they play will actually end up being invaluable experience once the Olympics start.
From now on, before every game each member of the starting lineup must eat a hair from Ian White's moustache.
Look through pockets of pants we were wearing on July 1, see if we can find the receipt for Mike Komisarek.
Get everyone's mind off of current slump by taking entire team to see the big-budget Hollywood blockbuster "2012", which is presumably the true story of the Leafs' next decent draft pick.
I don't know, maybe ask Luke Schenn to not suck so much this year?
Continue to send guys like Stalberg, Bozak and Tlusty to the minors if they don't perform, sending a clear and unmistakable message that roster spots on this team must be earned (assuming you're a rookie, and not a veteran third-liner, in which case don't worry about it.)
Practices will no longer include an intensive drill called "How to take a lazy, momentum-killing holding penalty at the worst possible time".
Continue with brilliant scheme of winning one game in October, two in November, four in December and so on. By the time foolish opposition realizes our plan, we'll have clinched a playoff spot thanks to 64-win April.
Send Jason Blake home from practice with suggestion that he get some well-deserved rest. Then, when he's napping, quietly move his bed into the 401 collector lane.
Have players spend time in soundproof hyperbaric chambers to better prepare them for the atmosphere during home games at the ACC.
New practice drill: pointing at Tomas Kaberle and yelling "Everyone be like him!"
Make sure Phil Kessel understands that despite mounting pressure due to fan and media expectations, it's actually completely fine if he doesn't score a goal on a particular shift as long as he remembers to come back and score two on the next one.
There's been some confusion over my recent post about NHL predictions that I'd like to clarify. While I argued that the endless predictions by so-called experts were generally pointless and almost always laughably wrong, I wasn't trying to imply that hockey predictions are never accurate.
In fact, some experts really do seem able to predict the future with an almost creepy degree of accuracy. It's rare, yes, but it does happen.
Here are three examples, chosen completely at random.
Source:Behind the scenes: the Leafs deadline day war room (March 2009) Prediction: "A confused Pavel Kubina phones to ask why the guy in charge putting together the Atlanta Thrashers 2009 media guide just showed up to take his picture." Reality: Four months later, Pavel Kubina is traded to the Atlanta Thrashers.
Source:10 Random Leafs predictions (October 2008) Prediction: "...this year, Blake looks sharp. Whether he's come to grips with his medical issues or just decided to refocus after a tough year he's looked good in the pre-season. Here's betting that he puts together a decent year -- let's say 25 goals." Reality: Jason Blake puts together a decent year, and scores 25 goals.
Source:Five games in... (October 2008) Prediction: "Dominic Moore is playing so well that I'm going to give him a new nickname: Dominic 'Second Round Pick at the 2009 Deadline' Moore." Reality: Six months later, Moore is traded for a second round pick at the 2009 deadline.
So as you can see, it's not impossible to make amazingly accurate predictions. It's just that you need to be really, really smart. And witty. And also handsome.
(Editor's note: This is one of those annoying serious posts, but if you stick with it I promise to slip in a "Kyle Wellwood is fat" joke somewhere. If not, I'll be back with some fun stuff later in the week.)
The new season is almost here, and that means it's time for one of hockey's annual traditions -- terrible, terrible predictions.
One example: Inspired by a recent brilliant post on Puck Daddy, the folks over at Mile High Hockey spent some time digging through ESPN's hockey archives, and found out that, predictably, ESPN is awful at making predictions.
None of their small army of so-called experts successfully picked the Penguins as Cup winners, and most ended up picking champs who didn't even end up winning a single round.
The experts: Not just wrong, but lazy too This isn't a surprise. Hockey predictions are always awful. Ask a typical hockey expert to predict the coming season and chances are they'll take last year's standings, move a few teams up or down one spot, and call that "analysis".
And they'll be wrong. Not just a little bit wrong, but terribly, hilariously, "not even in the ballpark" wrong.
This time last year, everyone agreed that the Habs would win the Stanley Cup. The Stars and Avs would contend in the West, the Blues would challenge for last place overall, and the Bruins would struggle to make the playoffs.
Everybody agreed on this. Everybody was wrong. And this happens every single year.
It would be tempting to point at this as evidence that so-called hockey experts are really just frauds who know as much (or less) as you or I. But there's actually more to it than that. Hockey experts aren't frauds. They're just human.
Human are terrible at making predictions Find any prediction from any time on any subject -- sports, politics, economics -- and it's likely that it turned out to wrong.
A year before the US election, most experts were arguing over whether Hillary Clinton would beat Rudy Guliani. Find any resource that does financial analysis and you'll find plenty of experts who swore the economy could never tank, right up until the economy tanked. Find any prediction ever made about what the world would be like in the future, then look outside your window and count how many flying cars you see.
We love to make predictions about the future. And when we do, we're almost always wrong. What's going on?
There's just some basic math at play here that's hard to overcome. Take any system with even the slightest bit of complexity, start predicting the possible states, and you pretty quickly find that you're dealing with some pretty large numbers -- large enough that predicting anything with much accuracy becomes near impossible.
Now nobody looks at a set of sports predictions and expects the expert to be exactly right. But there are so many unknowns and moving parts that even being vaguely, sort-of, quasi-right ends up being incredibly unlikely.
So it's not that we're bad at predicting complex things because we're dumb. We're bad at it because, mathematically, it's almost impossible. But we don't seem to know that. Plenty of psychological experiments have shown that when you ask people to make predictions, and then ask them to rate their confidence in their predictions, they always miss by a mile.
Put another way: we're not just bad at making predictions, we're bad at predicting how bad our predictions will be. No matter how many times we're wrong, we always think we're going to be right next time. And we never are.
Excuse me sure, I think your bias is showing Here's the good news: We're terrible at predicting, but we're great at rationalizing.
There's a well known psychological phenomenon called the hindsight bias. Basically, even though we're terrible at predicting what will happen, we're great at fooling ourselves after the fact. We have a built-in ability to pretend that things were predictable all along.
Of course the Habs crashed and burned last year -- look at all the holes in their lineup! Of course the Bruins challenged for first overall -- look at all that young talent! Of course the Stars missed the playoffs -- everyone knew Avery would destroy that dressing room!
Those same experts who couldn't predict the future are more than willing to accurately predict that past.
And it gets worse.
Black swans In probability, the "black swan" theory was presented by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name. (The book, by the way, is highly recommended if you're really interested in mathematical probability, economics, and authors going on and on about how wonderful they are until you want to hunt them down and slap them.)
Taleb's "black swans" are events that have enormous impact, were unpredictable, and are considered incredibly rare. Examples include 9/11, the rise of the internet, and various stock market meltdowns. Nobody sees them coming, even though everyone agrees that, in hindsight, we should have (there's that bias again).
While not on the same level of importance as world wars and global catastrophes, the sports world is filled with black swans. Kurt Warner. Len Bias. Tom Brady. Mark Prior. All were black swans of the sports world, good and bad.
Hockey has plenty of examples. An undrafted and unwanted Martin St. Louis winning an MVP, Art Ross and Stanley Cup? Black swan. The Red Wings drafting future hall-of-famers in the final rounds of back-to-back drafts? Black swan. Leeman for Gilmour? Black swan. Kyle Wellwood doing a situp? Big time black swan.
What will this year's black swans be? Maybe Jonas Gustavsson wins the Vezina. Maybe Luke Schenn regresses and gets sent to the minors. Maybe Jason Blake works in a pass or two.
Nobody knows. But those black swans are out there, for more than a few teams. They're going to change everything, and they'll throw all the expert analysis right out the window.
So what does all this have to do with anything? Nobody's arguing that it's impossible to predict anything about the sports world, or that the results we'll see will be determined solely by random chance. Some players and teams are better than others, and they'll probably have better results. That's common sense. Sometimes, things really do work out the way you'd expect.
But there will be surprises. There will be injuries, and blockbuster trades, and guys who come out of nowhere to become stars, and hot shot prospects that turn out to be duds. Virtually every team will have a few black swans of its own that will throw all the conventional wisdom out the window.
All of us -- experts, bloggers, the guy next to you in the bar -- are going to be wrong. By a mile. This season is going to end up looking nothing like what any of us predict.
And when it's all over, we're going to look back and pretend we knew it all along. After all, we're only human.
So here's the bottom line: Ignore the predictions. Sit back and enjoy the ride. And if every expert in the world is predicting that your team will come in dead last this year, don't worry.
Our friends at PPP had a nice writeup about Luke's Troops, a program in which Leafs' rookie Luke Schenn donates a pair of seats for each game to a member of the Canadian Armed Forces returning home from service.
While this program is certainly admirable, it got me wondering about what other types of charitable donations and community service the Leafs are up to. So after making a few phone calls, I've compiled this list of programs that current and recent members of the Maple Leafs organization are involved in.
Burkie's Boys A local orphanage receives a donation of a nickel every time Leafs GM Brian Burke makes a media appearance. Note: shortly after the trade deadline, the orphanage relocated to a small Caribbean island they'd purchased.
Howard Helps Out Leafs beat reporter Howard Berger donates his time to the local sick kids hospital. This program has been dormant for several months, since Berger did all his giving in November when it actually mattered.
Fergie's Friends Selected charities are given the opportunity to approach former Leafs GM John Ferguson with a request for what they feel would be a fair donation. Ferguson then immediately responds by offering them triple that amount, every year, for all of eternity.
It Could Be Worse Victims of serious car crashes, workplace accidents and other life-altering injuries are shown videos of Wendel Clark fighting guys like Dave Mackey, Slava Fetisov and Bob Brooke, and come away realizing that things could be a lot worse.
The Martin Gerber Second Chance Program Out-of-work derelicts who have been deemed unemployable due to a lack of marketable skills are given an opportunity to work again. Note: Gerber himself is not actually involved in this charity; it's named after him because he was the program's first recipient.
Kyle's Kupboard This popular program by former Leaf Kyle Wellwood encouraged fans to drop potato chips and candy bars into a large box near Wellwood's locker. While nobody's sure exactly which food bank received the donations, they obviously worked fast because by the next day there was never anything left but empty wrappers and crumbs.
The Mats Sundin "Entire Journey" Program This program was established by Mats Sundin when he first arrived in Toronto fifteen years ago. As of today, no final decision has been made on the campaign's format, goals and participants.
Pogge's Posse Young fans who would otherwise have only a slim hope of ever being part of a Maple Leafs game at the ACC are invited to spend some time commiserating with Marlie's goalie Justin Pogge, who informs them that he can definitely relate.
Gabbing with Grabby Mikhail Grabovski speaks at local high schools, reminding socially challenged kids that it's still possible to be marginally successful in your chosen career even though you're generally creepy and weird and everybody you meet feels a strong urge to punch you.
Blake's Buddies Jason Blake speaks to cancer patients about his own battle with the disease, giving practical advice such as "Make sure you sign your $20M contract before the final tests come back," and "Look on the bright side, at least this will give everyone something to talk about instead of your albinoism".
The NHL's Revenue Sharing Program Don't spend it all in one place, Phoenix.
Habitat for Kubanity Leafs defenceman Pavel Kubina performs advocacy work on behalf of Toronto's many homeless squatters, due to his deep personal empathy for people who absolutely refuse to leave a hopeless situation even though it's obvious that nobody wants them there anymore.
Rolling the Dice With Dominic Buffalo Sabres forward Dominic Moore returns to Toronto periodically to lecture on the dangers of gambling, delivering a moving speech called "How trying to get a little more money can unexpectedly result in you winding up stuck in a terrible hellhole that reeks of misery and hopelessness".
Mike Van Ryn Inspirational Hospital Visits In an attempt to raise spirits and bring a sense of hope to a difficult situation, local children go to the hospital to visit Mike Van Ryn.
With the deadline just a week away, Burke is faced with the task of convincing his fellow GMs to trade for various Leaf players. Needless to say, this won't exactly be easy.
Like any good salesman, Burke needs to go into battle with a game plan. So I've put together a list of talking points that he could use to try to sell other GMs on his wares. They're his to use, free of charge. Consider it a peace offering.
According to Google, this is a picture of Lee Stempniak. No Leaf fan can confirm this.
The player: Lee Stempniak The sales pitch: Not one of those late-season pickups who will come in and disrupt precious dressing room chemistry by being noticeable in any way.
The player: Jason Blake The sales pitch: While many have cited the length of his contract as a cause for concern, the actual salary cap implications are hard to predict since the CBA will have expired and been renegotiated three times before his deal finally ends.
The player: Curtis Joseph The sales pitch: Will immediately begin bolstering the confidence of your offensive players during practice shooting drills.
The player: Tomas Kaberle The sales pitch: Is so good that some teams have been willing to deal a 23-year-old future 50-goal scorer and a first round pick for him, if you can possibly believe such a thing. Ha ha. Ha. Oh god I hate my life.
The player: Andre Deveaux The sales pitch: A trade to another team would increase the young enforcer's value by making it possible for him to some day fight Ryan Hollweg, the only player in the entire NHL he is capable of beating
This is a cool photo, except that a defenceman was winding up at the point when it was taken
The player: Vesa Toskala The sales pitch: Recent history has shown that every goalie who leaves the Leafs automatically becomes ten times better on their new team. Which, in Toskala's case, would make him a very solid backup down the stretch in the event that your regular backup gets injured.
The player: Nik Antropov The sales pitch: Inevitable upcoming stint on injured reserve will clear up valuable late season cap space.
The player: Mikhail Grabovski The sales pitch: Has been described as "fearless", party due to his habit of making risky plays in the open ice but mostly due to his willingness to talk crap about Belarusian mob underlings.
The player: Dominic Moore The sales pitch: Future free agent can always be resigned before the off-season, which would be a great idea since career fourth-liners who have unexpected career seasons during a contract year almost always go on to maintain that level of success.
The player: Matt Stajan The sales pitch: Has shown impressive focus; despite playing almost his entire career on embarrassingly awful teams has never complained, become dejected, or acted like he even vaguely cared.
Miscellaneous ex-Avalanche defenceman
The player: Jeff Finger The sales pitch: Career sixth-defenceman occasionally plays so well that seasoned hockey executives have been known to mistake him for the infinitely better Kurt Sauer.
The player: Alexei Ponikarovsky The sales pitch: Averaged 20 goals a season from 2005-08, so he'd be reasonably productive as long as your roster is so utterly devoid of talent that you're forced to play him on the first line next to a future hall of famer.
The player: Alex Steen The sales pitch: Talented young player has shown impressive defensive acumen, occasional offensive flair, and emerging leadership skills. Is also technically now a member of the St. Louis Blues, so we can let him go for a late round draft pick.
The player: Luke Schenn The sales pitch: Is excellent at defending odd-man rushes. Which will come in handy, since the asking price is your entire roster and a first round pick.
Puck Soup is a podcast featuring me and Ryan Lambert. We release one free episode each week during the season, plus mailbags and other bonus episodes for Patreon subscribers.
"Biscuits" was the Vice Sports hockey podcast, hosted by DGB and Dave Lozo. It ran for two seasons; the final episode was in July, 2018. You can find the archives below:
Saturday night's game didn't quite go they way hockey fans were expecting. With Alexander Ovechkin and the Caps in town to play the last-place Leafs, a blowout seemed inevitable. When it was announced that struggling Vesa Toskala would start for Toronto, even the most die-hard Leaf fans was expecting the Caps to hit double digits.
