Five players I can't figure out

I'm still confused.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the NHL's five most confusing teams, at least from my perspective. These were the teams that I just couldn't figure out. Were they good? Bad? Somewhere in the middle? I'd spent the season trying to work it out, and come up empty.

As it turned out, I wasn't alone. More than a few readers confessed to being confused by those teams too, not to mention several others. It was like having a support group. A support group of confused hockey fans, all watching the games unfold with their heads tilted like a puppy seeing a toilet flush for the first time.

Well, today I'm going to call another meeting of the confused hockey fan network. But this time, we're not looking at teams. No, today we're going to dive into some specific players that have me perplexed. In most of these cases, I thought I had a handle on things. But now I'm not so sure.

Maybe you can help me out. Or maybe you're just as confused as I am. Either way, I think it will be good for my soul to admit that I just can't figure these guys out.

Brian Elliott

What I thought I knew: After an up-and-down start to this NHL career, Elliott had settled in to a predictable pattern with the Blues. He'd play well. He'd post strong numbers, sometimes even league-leading ones. And then, just when push came to shove, the Blues would lose faith in him and hand the starter's job to someone else. Maybe it was the backup. Maybe it was a pricey trade acquisition. Maybe it was even a semi-retired legend, in a move we'd all agree to just pretend never happened. But time and time again, the Blues had no faith in Elliott.

And I was convinced that they were wrong. This was the classic case of a team over-thinking things, or maybe letting dressing room politics or a faith in intangibles override basic logic. The numbers didn't lie: Elliott was one of the best goalies in the league. And when the Flames nabbed him at a discount in the offseason, I was sure that they'd found their starter.

Where I'm at now: Sitting around wondering what happened. Which is also where Elliott finds himself most games these days.

Chad Johnson has been a great story, and you can't blame the Flames for riding the hot hand. Elliott got off to a bad start, and when you're a young team that hasn't earned a ton of self-confidence quite yet, you can't let yourself fall too far out of the race. The Flames are being smart here.

But… Elliott is still good, right? Every goalie has the occasional slump, so we can't panic over 13 games. Then again, Elliott's never really done much outside of Ken Hitchcock's goalie factory, and the Blues still didn't believe in him. Did they know something that the rest of us, including the Flames, somehow missed? 

>> Read the full post at The Hockey News

Is this the worst it's ever been? Part four

Randy Carlyle attempts to remember
what a smile feels like

Almost six years ago, the Maple Leafs were in a bad place. They'd missed the playoffs for a team record three straight years. The Muskoka Five situation had just unfolded. They'd fired John Ferguson Jr., but failed in their efforts to lure Brian Burke out of Anaheim. And fans were starting to wonder: Is this the worst it's ever been?

So I decided to find out. In what would go on to become one of the most popular set of posts from this blog's first year, I went back to 1983 and reviewed a quarter century of Maple Leafs misery, assigning a "How bad was it?" score to each season.

• Part one: the reign of Harold Ballard
  
• Part two: the Fletcher and Quinn years
  
• Part three: The JFJ era

The conclusion: Yes, it really was the worst that it had ever been. With a final score of 95/100, the just-completed 2007-08 season took the crown as the worst in recent Leafs history.

But that was a long time ago. In the years since, I've often heard from fans wanting to know when I'd update the series with entries from the Burke/Nonis era. I always figured I'd know when the time was right. Today, with news of Randy Carlyle's contract extension, I think that time has arrived.

And so, six seasons later, it's time for the sequel. Welcome to part four, as we try to answer the question: Is this the worst it's ever been?

2008-09

The good: The Leafs fail to hire a GM during the summer like they said they would, and head into the season with Cliff Fletcher still in charge. But it turns out to be all part of a master plan, as Brian Burke mysteriously becomes available a month into the season and is hired after all. He gives an entertaining press conference that introduces the word "truculence" to the sports world, and eventually has his own guys in place, like Ron Wilson and Dave Nonis. He also outbids Ottawa for college free agent Tyler Bozak, who projects as a possible third-liner someday.

The bad: Before Burke arrives, Fletcher makes a series of odd moves, like trading up to draft Luke Schenn, signing Jeff Finger and trading away Alex Steen. He also fails to get anything for Mats Sundin's negotiating rights, and gives the Habs a second round pick for some punk kid named Mikhail Grabovski.

The team struggles through another non-playoff year, finishing last in the Northeast while leading the NHL in goals allowed. Jason Blake is the team's leading scorer. The goaltending, led by Vesa Toskala and Curtis Joseph, is terrible. Burke should probably get to work on fixing that.

Sundin eventually signs with the Canucks, then comes back to Toronto and beats the Leafs with a shootout-winning goal. It's pretty much the highlight of the season.

How bad was it? 75/100. The team is terrible, but at least Burke seems to have a plan. For the first time in years, there's a palpable feeling of hope.

2009-10

The good: The Leafs draft Nazem Kadri, leading to one of the great draft floor moments of all time. In September, Burke trades three draft picks to the Bruins for Phil Kessel. Despite missing the first month, Kessel scores 30 goals andeveryone agrees that the deal will be a good one for the Leafs as long as the draft pick doesn't end up being unexpectedly high, like tenth.

Later in the season, Burke acquired Dion Phaneuf in exchange for a handful of spare parts, and also manages to somehow offload both Toskala and Jason Blake's contract.

The bad: Burke signs a ton of free agents, pretty much all of whom are expensive busts. The team loses its first eight games and is basically eliminated from the playoffs by Halloween. Toskala and rookie Jonas Gustavsson provide the team with almost historically bad goaltending, and as the season wears on, it becomes apparent that the Leafs could finish dead last and hand the Bruins the #1 overall pick. They avoid that, narrowly, but finish 29th instead.

How bad was it? 90/100. Just an awful year. Among the many, many awful elements of this season was the nagging feeling that Burke wasn't as smart as we'd all hoped he was, and the next few years was just going to be more of the same. But the Phaneuf trade inspired just enough confidence to keep this year out of "worst ever" contention.

Read the rest of this post...

An introduction to on-ice percentages

One of the things I like to do in this space, in between reminiscing about the Norris Division and breaking down hockey player lip sync videos frame by frame, is occasionally dip a toe into the advanced stats waters. So far this season, we’ve already introduced most of the basic concepts, walked through how they can be used to project success or failure for a given team, and looked at the surprising importance of zone entries.

Today, let’s take a crack at on-ice percentages. It’s a concept that presents a slight variation on some common stats you’re already used to, and it doesn’t involve any especially onerous math, but it can end up being crucially important to understanding a player’s more traditional stats. And that turns out to be especially true when those stats start telling us something we weren’t expecting.

Let’s start with on-ice shooting percentage.

♦♦♦

What is on-ice shooting percentage?

You’re already familiar with a player’s regular shooting percentage, which is a basic stat that most fans understand well. Shooting percentage is simply the percentage of shots on net taken by a player that result in a goal. A player who takes 300 shots and scores 30 goals is shooting 10 percent. That would be better than the league average, which over the last several seasons is right about 9 percent.

On-ice shooting percentage is essentially the same concept, but with an important twist: It counts all shots taken at the opponent’s net when a player is on the ice, including those by his teammates. It’s a measure of how successful a team is at converting its shots with a certain player on the ice, whether or not the player is the one doing the shooting. Like any stat, on-ice shooting percentage can be applied to all game situations or broken down further by specifying even strength, close situations, etc.

It’s a fairly new stat, since it relies on data we’ve only had available to us for a few years. Unlike regular shooting percentage, on-ice shooting percentage isn’t typically mentioned on TV broadcasts or in newspaper stat packages. But it’s become relatively easy to find online, and you can now pull on-ice shooting percentages for every player on sites like ExtraSkater.com (where it appears on every player page as “Sh%” under the dashboard’s “5 on 5 on-ice” header).

Why should we care?

It should go without saying that on-ice shooting percentage will have an enormous impact on a player’s more traditional stats. If a high rate of his own shots go in, he’ll score more goals. If a high rate of those taken by his teammates go in, he should expect more assists.

And unsurprisingly, that’s exactly what we see. Many of this year’s top scorers, including guys like Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Getzlaf, Sidney Crosby, and John Tavares, also rank in the top 20 for overall on-ice shooting percentage among players with at least 52 games played.

That’s nice, but not necessarily all that useful — after all, we don’t need advanced stats to tell us those players are having good years. The real value here, like with most advanced stats, would lie in helping us make educated guesses about the future, and which players are most likely to sustain their level of performance.

On-ice shooting percentage could do that, but first we need to know whether it’s primarily driven by skill or luck. If it’s a skill, we’d expect players with high percentages to keep racking up points. If it’s mostly luck, we’d expect them to be top candidates to fall back to earth.

So which is it? Let’s find out.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

New MLSE chief Tim Leiweke's plan to bring the Stanley Cup to Toronto

The first result for a Google Image search
of "Things we will never see again"

The new head of Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment has given his first interview since taking the job, and the results were… interesting.

In a wide-ranging interview, Tim Leiweke unveiled his vision for the Maple Leafs. He's promising to change the organization's culture and build a winning atmosphere. He even plans to take down photos of the franchises championship teams from the 1960s. And he's so confident that his plan will work that he says he's already planned the championship parade.

That last bit has already become a punch line, but it's worth pointing out that the former president and CEO of the company that owns the LA Kings knows a thing or two about Cup parades. So maybe he's on to something.

I wanted to know more, so I put in a call to my MLSE spies. They were able to get me more details on what kind of changes Leiweke has in store. Here are some of the ways the new Leafs' boss plans to change the culture and finally bring the Stanley Cup to Toronto.

Old way: Players were instructed to go out there and try to lose.
New way: Players will now be told to go out there and try to win.

Old way: The team was the butt of a constant string of undeserved "plan the parade" jokes from opposing fans.
New way: End that practice once and for all by ensuring that, effective immediately, all future "plan the parade" jokes will be completely justified.

Old way: The franchise was guilty of living in the past and coasting on long-ago triumphs.
New way: The franchise will focus on the present, unless not doing that would sell more merchandise in which case hey did you hear David Clarkson is the new Wendel Clark?

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Free agency preview

Honestly, I don't even have a joke here.

While the opening of free agency has historically been one of the most important days on the NHL calendar, it's diminished somewhat in recent years. As teams got accustomed to life in a salary cap world, fewer and fewer marquee players have made it to unrestricted free agency and the day has started to lose some of its lustre.

But that trend may not hold this year, thanks to a salary cap that will drop for the first time in history. With cap space harder to come by, some teams have had to make the tough decisions to let players explore free agency. Mix in a handful of victims of compliance buyouts, and the list of available players suddenly doesn't seem so bad.

Here's a look at some of the top players who'll be available to the highest bidder on Friday.

Vincent Lecavalier - Is a player that every NHL owner would love to have chance to meet with in person, in most cases because they'd like to borrow money from him.

Tyler Bozak - Will probably proofread his contract offers very carefully to make sure he avoids any careless mistakes, like looking at a number three and for some reason fooling yourself into thinking it's somehow a number one.

Ilya Bryzgalov - Has spent the last week holed up in his home office loudly yelling about how many years could be available and how high the numbers might go, which is weird because he doesn't have a phone in there and hasn't been told he's a free agent and also his "office" is a castle he made out of lego.

Nathan Horton - Teams are said to be concerned about reports that his recurring dislocated shoulder is such a complete and irredeemable mess that Tyler Seguin recently moved into it.

Read the rest of this post...

Grantland: Ten names to watch as we approach the trade deadline

We’re still two weeks away from the NHL’s April 3 trade deadline, but there’s a good chance action could pick up over the next few days. Recent history has shown a trend toward a quieter deadline day, with most of the bigger deals going down in advance. And because of this season’s modified post-lockout schedule, this week’s annual GM meetings are taking place before the deadline instead of after.

So now seems like a good time to get an early jump on the speculation with a look at 10 of the players who are showing up in trade chatter. Not all of them will be traded (let’s face it, there’s a decent chance none of the top players will), and we all may have moved on to 10 different guys by next week, but right now, these are some of the bigger names driving the rumor mill.

>> Read the full post at Grantland

Ron Wilson's 15-point plan for fixing the Maple Leafs

It could be worse.
[Checks standings.]
Wait, I was wrong.

OK, so maybe October didn't go quite as well as it could have.

But that's fine, because now it's November (when it matters). And while some might point out that the Leafs have already fallen so far behind a playoff pace that the rest of the season if essentially futile, I remain optimistic. Because the Leafs still have Ron Wilson, and Ron Wilson has a plan.

How do I know? Because I've seen it. DGB spies found it in his office in a folder labeled "super top secret" and they were kind enough to send me a copy. And because I know that loyal Leaf fans could use some reassurance that everything is under control, I'm reprinting it here.

Here's Ron Wilson's 15-point plan for getting the Leafs back on track:

• Have goaltending coaches work extensively with Vesa Toskala on positioning. Specifically, how to position his ass on the end of the bench for the remainder of the season.
  
  
• Reconsider season-long policy of having the team's penalty kill strategy organized by the NHLPA executive committee.
  
  
• Keep reminding Brian Burke that coaching a team full of overmatched losers who suffer crushing defeat in every game they play will actually end up being invaluable experience once the Olympics start.
  
  
• From now on, before every game each member of the starting lineup must eat a hair from Ian White's moustache.
  
  
• Look through pockets of pants we were wearing on July 1, see if we can find the receipt for Mike Komisarek.
  
  
• Get everyone's mind off of current slump by taking entire team to see the big-budget Hollywood blockbuster "2012", which is presumably the true story of the Leafs' next decent draft pick.
  
  
• I don't know, maybe ask Luke Schenn to not suck so much this year?
  
  
• Continue to send guys like Stalberg, Bozak and Tlusty to the minors if they don't perform, sending a clear and unmistakable message that roster spots on this team must be earned (assuming you're a rookie, and not a veteran third-liner, in which case don't worry about it.)
  
  
• Practices will no longer include an intensive drill called "How to take a lazy, momentum-killing holding penalty at the worst possible time".
  
  
• Continue with brilliant scheme of winning one game in October, two in November, four in December and so on. By the time foolish opposition realizes our plan, we'll have clinched a playoff spot thanks to 64-win April.
  
  
• Send Jason Blake home from practice with suggestion that he get some well-deserved rest. Then, when he's napping, quietly move his bed into the 401 collector lane.
  
  
• Have players spend time in soundproof hyperbaric chambers to better prepare them for the atmosphere during home games at the ACC.
  
  
• New practice drill: pointing at Tomas Kaberle and yelling "Everyone be like him!"
  
  
• Make sure Phil Kessel understands that despite mounting pressure due to fan and media expectations, it's actually completely fine if he doesn't score a goal on a particular shift as long as he remembers to come back and score two on the next one.
  
  
• Work on resume.
  

Ottawa or Toronto? Let's help Tyler Bozak decide

Future HOFer
and/or money-grubbing bum

One of the biggest stories in the NHL these days is the status of star college center Tyler Bozak. The highly sought-after free agent has been courted by as many as 20 teams, and has apparently narrowed his options down to a short list. According to TSN, the two top teams on Bozak's list are the Maple Leafs and the Senators.

Bozak is a playmaking center who was passed over in the 2007 draft because of concerns over his size -- he was only 155 lbs at the time, but an emphasis on conditioning has allowed him to fill out to 180 lbs. And while gaining 25 lbs in just two years is impressive, it's worth noting that it still falls well short of the record set by Kyle Wellwood during a single morning at Denny's during the 2008 off-season.

Bozak's decision had been expected on Wednesday, but as of Thursday night he was apparently still considering his options. While no reason has been given for the delay, Bozak's apparent inability to make a simple decision about which team he wants to play for has many Leaf fans calling him captain material. But I can sympathize with the kid.

As someone who grew up in Toronto and now lives in Ottawa, I know how difficult it can be to choose between the two cities. So as a favor to Bozak in these final hours, I'd like to help nudge him along with my unbiased views on some of the pros and cons of either destination.

Coaching
Toronto Maple Leafs - Would have the opportunity to play first few years as a pro under well-respected head coach Ron Wilson.

Ottawa Senators - Would have the opportunity to play first few years as a pro under anywhere from four to six well-respected head coaches.

Opportunity
Ottawa Senators - Based on current organizational depth, would enter training camp with realistic chance of securing job as second line center.

Toronto Maple Leafs - Based on current organizational depth, would enter training camp with realistic chance of securing job as starting goaltender.

Local atmosphere
Toronto Maple Leafs - Would need to be careful to stay focused on hockey, avoiding distractions poised by city's exciting night life, excellent dining, vibrant ethnic communities, world famous theater and cultural attractions, not to mention the presence of the MLB, NBA and NFL.

Ottawa Senators - Would need to be careful to stay focused on hockey, avoiding distractions poised by Local Heroes wing night, the Blockbuster down the street, the experimental farm, and that other Blockbuster a little further down the street.

Fan loyalty
Toronto Maple Leafs - Opportunity to play in front of 19,000+ die-hard Leaf fans every night.

Ottawa Senators - Same.

Travel
Toronto Maple Leafs - Central location means it only takes a few hours to make plane trip from downtown Toronto to cities of division rivals.

Ottawa Senators - Central location means it only takes a few hours to make bus trip from downtown Ottawa to the ScotiaBank Place.

Fan knowledge
Ottawa Senators - Staying focused on the game can occasionally be difficult due to unsophisticated fans mindlessly screaming in your ear all night long.

Toronto Maple Leafs - Fans appreciate the importance of focusing on the task at hand, and will leave you alone with your thoughts by vacating the ten rows behind the bench during the first half of every period.

Hero worship
Toronto Maple Leafs - While it would be exciting and flattering at first, the constant praise, autograph requests and almost sickening level of devotion could eventually wear thin and lead you to dread contact with fans.

Ottawa Senators - While it would be exciting and flattering at first, the constant praise, autograph requests, and almost sickening level of devotion could eventually wear thin and lead you to dread contact with local media.

General Manager
Toronto Maple Leafs - Brian Burke, who is credited with building a Stanley Cup champion in Anaheim.

Ottawa Senators - Bryan Murray, who actually did build a Stanley Cup champion in Anaheim.

Ownership
Toronto Maple Leafs - Team is owned primarily by a pension fund, meaning ownership is often perceived as being focused on profit and not especially accountable to the city or fans.

Ottawa Senators - Team is owned by Eugene Melnyk, a wealthy businessman who is passionately committed to the city and its fans and will tell you this whenever he is interviewed via satellite from the home in the Barbados where he spends 51 1/2 weeks of the year.

History
Ottawa Senators - As a relatively recent expansion team, the franchise has a limited history from which to draw.

Toronto Maple Leafs - The team has a long and rich history, and the friendly local media will be more than willing to constantly remind you of fascinating facts such as what year the team last won a Stanley Cup, and how long it's been since the team last won a Stanley Cup

Women
Toronto Maple Leafs - Players can count on having plenty of opportunity to court the beautiful local women.

Ottawa Senators - Players can count on having plenty of opportunity to court the beautiful local women, unless both of them happen to be sick that weekend.

Update: He chose wisely.