Mailbag: Could you save half the shots in an NHL game? Plus a Lindros what-if, a Scrabble challenge and more

I forgot to do a January mailbag. Does that mean you’ll get two in February? It does not. Look, if the Habs can take an entire month off then I can too.

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and style.

My question is one that has been furiously debated amongst my friends for years. If an average beer league hockey player (skater, not a goalie) were to suit up as a goalie in an NHL game, what would be a reasonable estimate of that person’s save percentage?

The only caveats to the hypothetical would be that the other players on the ice wouldn’t be “aware” of the person’s lack of goaltending skill, and the person wouldn’t get pulled from the net despite the clear underperformance in goal (they could finish the entire game). Most of us believe that our save percentage would be infinitesimally small, however we do have one friend that ardently posts his own over/under at 50%.

As the internet’s foremost authority on hockey hypotheticals, help us settle this debate once and for all. Has history shown that a 0.500 save percentage is doable for a run-of-the-mill men’s leaguer? Has goalie equipment gotten big enough for even the average skater to step in the way of a majority of NHL shots? Have players gotten so skilled at defensive play they’d be able to reasonably offset this obvious detriment in net? Would attempting to stop an Alex Ovechkin one-timer send the average person to the hospital? Appreciate your input. – Bryan C.

I read this submission, stared at it for a while, and then had to email Bryan back with a follow-up question: Do the other players on the ice not realize the goalie is just a regular guy at first, or can they somehow not figure it out through the entire game? Bryan clarified that it’s the latter – nobody else changes anything about their game, meaning your team can’t go all-out on defense and the other team isn’t bombing shots from the red line. It’s a normal NHL game in every way except for you, an average beer leaguer who’s never played net until right now.

My verdict: Bryan’s friend who thinks he could finish a game over .500 is out of his mind.

I mean, come on. Yes, you’d make some saves, just by virtue of the puck hitting you. (And that’s all it would be; you would absolutely not be able to move in time to do anything to an NHL player’s slapshot.) But if you’re going to play a full game and face, let’s say, 30 shots, there’s virtually zero chance you’re lucky enough to have half of them go into your chest.

Remember: David Ayres, who had a few decades of experience as a goaltender and will live in history forever as the gold standard for miracle “regular guy” performances, only had an .800 save percentage in that game. You think somebody who doesn’t even know which leg the pads go on is going to get anywhere close to that? Madness.

The only caveat I’ll allow for is that Bryan doesn’t say anything about injuries, and there’s an excellent chance that any NHL shot you faced would destroy you. If your first play is an Ovechkin one-timer that turns your collarbone into powder and you leave on a stretcher having made one save on one shot, I guess that would count. But that’s your only hope.

Is it too soon to say Kakko and Lafreniere are busts? Because I’m starting to worry. What does history say about players their age with their expectations/hype? – Skinny Peet

Oh good, I’m sure all the Rangers fans who complain I don’t talk about their team enough will be thrilled now.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Team Canada's WJC entry has no Maple Leaf prospects. That's probably for the best.

The world junior championship will officially get underway on Monday, and Team Canada has been playing exhibition games all week as they look to rebound from a disappointing showing last year.

If you’re a Maple Leafs fan with an eye on the future, there’s not all that much to get excited about at this year’s tournament. Nikita Korostelev will be there for Team Russia, as will Jeremy Bracco for Team USA. But with eligible players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner already lightning it up in the NHL, there won’t be much of the Leafs’ future on display. And there won’t be any Leaf prospects at all on Team Canada.

Honestly, that might be a good thing. While Team Canada has had its ups and downs over the years at the WJC, it’s rarely had anything in the way of good news for Leaf fans. In a good year, the team wouldn’t carry any Toronto prospects at all. In a bad year, they’d find a creative way to punch Leaf fans in the gut.

Today, let’s relive some of that trauma with a look back at the various ways that Team Canada has made Leaf fans sad.

***

1991

We’ll start our history lesson back in the 90s, since before then it was relatively rare to find Leafs property at the world juniors. That’s because back then, most Leaf prospects were rushed into the NHL lineup right away, which is why players like Wendel Clark and Luke Richardson only made appearances before they were Maple Leaf property. We did get an early peak at names like Russ Courtnall and Gary Leeman in the early 80s, but not many Canadians were paying attention then.

They were by 1991, though, and for most of the nation that year’s tournament stands as a classic. It came down to a final-game gold medal showdown with the Soviets, one that Canada won on a late goal by the immortal John Slaney. It marked the first time in Canadian history that they’d won back-to-back gold medal.

But if you were a Leafs fan, the tournament was… well, let’s say bittersweet. For one, this was the year that Eric Lindros truly arrived as the most dominant prospect in the world, living up to his status as the presumed top pick in the 1991 draft. That should have been good news for the Leafs, given that they were terrible. But they’d already traded that pick in a disastrous trade that would leave them scrambling to claw their way out of last place overall. They eventually would, just barely, and ended up missing out on another Canadian star from this tournament in Scott Niedermayer.

The Leafs did have a prospect of their own on Team Canada. That would be Scott Thornton, taken third overall in the infamous 1989 draft that saw Toronto load up on Belleville Bulls. He was on loan from the big club after scoring just one goal in 23 games; it would be the only goal he’d ever score for the Leafs, as he was part of the Grant Fuhr trade package a few months later.

Meanwhile, the Leafs came away impressed by another Canadian prospect, one who tied with Lindros for the team lead in goals. That was Mike Craig, who’d they pluck away from the Stars a few years later in a terrible RFA signing.

There was one bright side to the tournament, although you’d have to look hard to find it at the time. While Trevor Kidd got six of the seven starts in goal, a Leafs prospect did manage to earn the back-up job and get into a single game. That was a kid named Felix Potvin, who ended up being pretty important in a few years.

>> Read the full post at TheAthletic

Welcome to Loser City

The Stanley Cup is every player's ultimate goal. And since the only way to win it is by first earning a spot in the NHL playoffs, the post-season naturally becomes ever player's first and only priority.

Or at least, that's what they tell us. It turns out the players have a little secret: missing the playoffs isn't so bad.

Oh sure, it's going to be frustrating if you're a fiery competitor like Jarome Iginla. Luckily, Jarome has some new teammates this year, and they've let him in on how it really is:

If you don't visit Bloge Salming every day, Daniel Carcillo wins.

NBC's strange new NHL promo

I know it's become trendy to complain about NBC's hockey coverage. And I know it has to be a hard job putting those broadcasts together for a national audience that may or may not even be interested in the sport.

But is it me, or does their latest advertising campaign seem a little... odd?

(Remember, when you don't subscribe to Bloge Salming videos, you're telling the world that you're on Team Leno.)

Brian Burke drops the hammer

So it's come to this. On the same weekend that my entire house is without internet access except for an ipod that can steal my neighbor's wireless, Brian Burke decides to roll a grenade into the Leafs' locker room. So here I am, blogging from a Starbucks. I'm that guy. You have my permission to punch me in the throat.

We have a lot to talk about. Let's get the easy one out of the way first.

The Anaheim Deal

Great deal. Fantastic deal. A perfect deal. Forget about whether this trade works for the Ducks or not. From the Leafs perspective, it's a masterpiece.

The Leafs improved their weakest position and their cap situation in one deal. Yes, they take on an extra $2M next year. But this team won't be good enough to compete until at least 2011-12, and having a 39-year-old Jason Blake and his $4M off the cap that year is a huge win.

What's the absolute worst-case scenario here? If Giguere is every bit as bad as Toskala, the Leafs are stuck with him for one full year. If he's borderline average, the Leafs will have a cup-winning goalie to dangle at next year's deadline.

But if he can get back to being even a bonafide NHL starter, Burke has worked a miracle.

The Calgary deal

This one is trickier. Dion Phaneuf has had a downright bad year, and it's not hard to imagine him imploding in the Toronto pressure-cooker. He has a long-term deal with a big cap hit, so there's significant risk here.

But here's the flipside: Phaneuf is also a former Calder and Norris contender who's still years away from his prime, and the Leafs gave up shockingly little to get him. Two players who had no future in Toronto past this year, one solid forward who won't be all that hard to replace, and a very good young defenceman. That's it. Oh, and the Leafs picked up a decent prospect in the deal.

Losing Ian White hurts, no doubt. It's not even impossible to imagine that he could be the best player in the deal a few years from now. But that's unlikely, and you have to give up something to get something.

Bottom line: The Leafs are looking to the future, and in terms of longterm impact they basically just traded Ian White for Dion Phaneuf. It's far from a sure thing, but that's just about the ultimate buy low/sell high deal, isn't it?

This feels familiar

It's impossible to look at these two deals without feeling like we're back in the early 90s all over again.

JS Giguere is only slightly older than Grant Fuhr was when the Leafs acquired him in 1991. Both had won Cups. Both had lost their hold on their starting jobs. Both needed a change of scenery. At the time, Cliff Fletcher dismissed concerns about Fuhr's age by pointing out that top goaltenders often play well into their late-30s.

Oh, did we mention that the Leafs gave up a young Vincent Damphousse and more in that deal? Today, the Leafs got Giguere for two guys they would have given away for nothing without blinking an eye.

And then there's the whole "Make a multi-player deal with the Calgary Flames for a potential star who wants out". There's even a mustached defenceman playing a prominent role.

That seemed to work out OK last time.

So what's the impact on the rest of the year?

Short answer: who cares? This season is already over.

Longer answer: Everyone is asking how the Leafs will score now. But they weren't scoring before, at least enough to win. This deal clears out a bunch of older players and makes room for some of the kids to finally show what they can do.

Giguere should help Gustavsson develop. He'll also hurt Gustavsson bargaining position as an RFA, which may save the Leafs a few bucks. Both are good things.

And finally, hopefully the charade of not trading Tomas Kaberle comes to an end. If anyone still believed Burke's ridiculous "I don't ask guys to waive NTCs" stance before today, dealing for Giguere should put that to rest.

If the Leafs can get a decent return for Kaberle, the future may actually look bright. Imagine that.

The bottom line

It took a year and a half, but the Brian Burke era is finally here. It's off to a good start. For the first time in a long time, we can say that today is a good day to be a Leaf fan.

Finally, I've had a bunch of people asking about whether these deals do anything to change my one-month sabbatical from watching the Leafs. Apparently they missed the fine print on that post.

Time to pull the trigger, Cliff

The Leafs have a terrible problem right now that most team wish they had.

They have too many NHL defencemen. And somebody needs to do something about it.

It's becoming more apparent every day that Luke Schenn isn't going anywhere. With Schenn, Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina guaranteed a lineup spot every night, that leaves six players fighting for three spots.

If newly heatlhy Jeff Finger is also considered an everyday player (and his contract would hint that he is), that leaves five guys fighting for just two spots: Stralman, Frogren, Van Ryn, Colaiacovo and White.

All five guys have upside. All five can play in the NHL. And none will have a chance to get in any sort of groove if they're shuffling in and out of the lineup every night.

The glut of defencemen also means that Jiri Tlusty had to be sent down. That may have a good move anyway, since Tlusty hasn't done much of anything so far this season. But demoting a prospect is not something a rebuilding team like the Leafs should ever be forced into doing.

Another negative side effect of carrying nine defencemen: it leaves on 12 forwards on the roster. Remember how great it was to see Ron Wilson hold veteran like Jason Blake and Matt Stajan accountable for their bad habits by sending them to the press box? That's history now. Every forward on the roster knows they get to play every night now... and that includes useless fourth-liner Ryan Hollweg.

So enough is enough. It's time to move one of these defenceman. Let's make a deal.

Fletcher told reporters this week that he plans to hold onto his defencemen "until somebody blows us away". In a perfect world, that's the way to go. But the Leafs world is far from perfect right now, and this doesn't feel like the time to be stubborn.

Let's face it, nobody is going to step up with a knock-your-socks-off offer for Ian White. While I'm as big a fan of Colaiacovo as you'll probably find in Leafland, there won't be any GMs looking to sell the farm for the guy. In fact, none of the Leafs five pressbox-warmers are worth much right now.

And let's face it, the price is only going to drop each time they're listed as healthy scratches.

Sure, maybe in a few weeks some team will run into injury trouble on the blueline and Cliff would be able to squeeze them for a fourth-rounder for White instead of a fifth. So be it. That's the chance you take.

Pull the trigger, Cliff. Give one of these kids a chance to resume their career somewhere else. And call up a forward (Tlusty, or somebody else who's earned it) to allow Wilson to keep everyone honest.

And do it soon.

20 Good Things About the 2007-08 Leafs

Optimism Week continues at Down Goes Brown. My first post this week was kind of a copout, since I spent most of it talking about other teams. Baby steps, people.

But today, we're going all out. For this post, I will choose 20 members of the Leafs organization and say something nice about them.

Can I do it? Is it possible that 20 good things happened in this writeoff of a season? Let's find out.

Wait, why is the goalie wearing blue too?

Bryan McCabe - Offensive contribution was actually greater than stats would indicate, thanks to obscure NHL bylaw that only gives credit for goals scored into opponent's net.

Andrew Raycroft - Much like Martin Brodeur (chip shot off glass) and Rick DiPietro (quick outlet pass from behind net), has developed his own trademark play for clearing the zone: "faceoff at center ice".

Kyle Wellwood - Knows that despite advances in theoretical physics, scientists still can't explain exactly how gravity functions or rule out the slim possibility that it could unexpectedly cease to work in the future. So just in case, bravely dedicated his summer to making sure his couch didn't float away.

Mark Bell - Crushed every Sens fan's will to live by injuring Mike Fisher, destroying Daniel Alfredsson, and then somehow sneaking onto the ScotiaBank Place ice before a playoff game dressed as a fat guy in a gladiator helmet.

Anton Stralman - Certainly cleared up any lingering confusion over that whole "the next Niklas Lidstrom" thing.

Nik Antropov - Was arguably the only Leaf to exceed expectations this year, scoring just enough big goals to singlehandedly keep the team from getting a top draft pick.

It's getting closer, closer... hey, what does that horn mean?

Vesa Toskala - Constantly finding new and creative ways to challenge himself, such as resolving to stop all 180-foot slapshots using only sense of smell.

Jason Blake - Revolutionized youth hockey coaching by dedicating entire season to single-handedly disproving the old "It's never a bad play to shoot the puck" theory.

Carlo Colaiacovo - Successfully read this sentence without hurting himself.

Andy Wozniewski - Showed impressive courage and determination by repeatedly suiting up for NHL games despite being really, really horrible at playing hockey.

Jeremy Williams - Showed tremendous respect for the head coach who gave him two minutes of ice time a night, eventually realizing he was embarassing him by scoring every single game and cutting that out.

Cliff Fletcher - Is proactively working to improve the team the best way he knows how -- by repeatedly calling up Minnesota GM Doug Riseborough and asking him if he feels like trading his best players for a five-pack of crap.

Darcy Tucker - Fulfilled obligations as corporate spokesperson by always remembering to wear his "Kewl" brand hat during post-game interviews, or would have, had he ever done anything that would warrant a post-game interview.

Alex Steen - His play served as a soothing reminder for Leafs fans that all those first rounders JFJ traded away wouldn't necessarily have ended up being very good anyways.

Justin Pogge - Currently with the Marlies gaining extensive experience in not taking part in the playoffs, which will be invaluable once he graduates to the Leafs roster.

Pavel Kubina - Played about 20 minutes a game, scored a handful of big goals, and wasn't bad defensively. And hey, that's about all you can ask from a $5 million defenceman, right?

Ian White - Not one of those obnoxious spotlight-seeking pro atheletes who tries to hog media attention by ever actually doing anything noteworthy.

"What the hell, go ahead and take most of October and November off too."

Paul Maurice - Is a totally cool boss who lets his employees leave two months early every year.

Tomas Kaberle - Four-for-four performance in accuracy shooting during NHL Skills competition answered the age old question "Is Tomas Kaberle physically capable of actually shooting the god-damned puck?"

Mats Sundin - Sent a powerful message about loyalty, leadership, and finishing what you start, which will no doubt prove exceedingly inspirational for his new teammates once he signs with Detroit this summer.

What would it cost the Leafs to trade up to #1?

According to the Toronto Sun, Cliff Fletcher recently raised the idea of trading up at the draft, including the possibility of moving all the way up to #1.

Great idea. But what would it cost?

Impossible to know for sure, of course. For one, there’s nothing to suggest the Lightning will even make the pick available. If a bidding war developed, who knows where the final price could wind up.

But just for fun, let's see if we come up with an educated guess. If the Leafs wanted to trade up to #1 overall, what kind of offer would it take to get in the door?

NFL fans will recognize this chart, which outlines the approximate values for draft picks in a given year. (If you already know what the NFL Trade Chart is and want to skip to the part about how the Leafs and Stamkos, click here.)

The values start at 3,000 for the top pick and declines for each subsequent picks. The drop from the first pick to the second is steep, the drop from second to third slightly less so, and so on until later rounds when the point values decline slowly.

This makes sense -- the difference between one or two picks is enormous at the top of a draft, gets less important as the draft moves on, and all but washes out by the end. Math fans will recognize the points distribution as resembling (although not directly based on) a power law graph.

The chart is an approximation -- it isn't specific to any particular year or draft. It goes without saying that the value of a pick, especially one at the top of the first round, will fluctuate year-to-year depending on who is available. The #1 overall pick in Sidney Crosby's draft year was worth a lot more than in Patrick Stefan's. But “The Chart” as its known in NFL draft circles, often ends up being surprisingly accurate. More than a few recent NFL draft day trades have been made that matched perfectly based on chart value.

And while The Chart was designed for the NFL, it can be applied to other sports as well, at least as a starting point. Keep in mind that both the NFL and NHL have seven round drafts and a similar number of teams (32 vs 30), so the values will fit relatively well.

So what does The Chart say it would cost the Leafs to move up? Let's take a look.

The #1 overall pick is assigned a value of 3,000 points. The Leafs hold the seventh pick, which is valued at 1,500. So we'll start our offer there, and we're already halfway home.

Now it gets tricky. The Leafs don't own their second round pick this year -- it went to Phoenix is the Yanic Perrault trade. I'll pause here so you can curse JFJ and punch yourself in the temple a few times.

They do own the Penguins second rounder, thanks to Fletcher's Hal Gill trade. That would be the #57 pick if the draft was held today, although it could shift depending on who wins the Cup. For sake of argument let's call it #57, which gives it a value of 330 points.

So far our offer includes our top two picks, and we're not even close to fair value -- just 1,830 total, well short of the 3,000 we need. The Leafs third round pick will only carry a value in the 230 range, so clearly we're not going to get far by adding more picks. In fact, the Leafs could package every pick they own and it still wouldn't get them to fair value according to The Chart.

What about trading a pick from future seasons? That's a possibility. But keep in mind that the rule-of-thumb for draft picks is that a pick loses one round of value for each year in the future you go. That means that a 2009 second rounder would only be worth the equivalent of a 2008 third rounder. We're getting into diminishing returns here.

The bottom line is that if we want to make this deal happen, we're going to need to go out and get more picks.

So let's try that. If the Leafs could acquire a mid- to late-round pick in the first, their chances start to look better. For sake of argument, let's target the #22 pick (currently held by the Rangers, but again subject to change).

Who could the Leafs deal for a pick in that range? Tough call. Bryan McCabe and Darcy Tucker sure aren't getting it done. Pavel Kubina might have at the trade deadline, but probably not now. On the other hand, Alex Steen might fetch a late first rounder, and Nik Antropov would be a good candidate as well assuming his knee is OK.

Let's pull the trigger for that #22 pick, which The Chart values at 780 points. That brings us to 2,610 points. We're just 390 points short of fair value now.

That's the equivalent of a mid-second rounder, which the Leafs don't have. So you're looking at moving another player off the roster. As a ballpark, players on the current roster who could fetch a second rounder would probably includes guys like Ponikoravsky, or maybe Ian White.

So based on The Chart and our imaginary wheeling and dealing, here's what that trade for the #1 overall pick would look like.

To Toronto: #1 overall pick
To Tampa Bay: #7 overall, #22 overall (at a cost of Alex Steen or Nik Antropov), the #51 pick (cost: Ian White or Alex Ponikoravsky), and Pittsburgh's #57 pick

Of course, there would be other ways to make a deal work. Tomas Kaberle has plenty of trade value, for example -- find a way to work him in and you're going to make your job easier. There's also the possibility of players coming back to Toronto in a deal, additional teams becoming involved, etc.

But at least we have a starting point. Two first rounders, and two seconds. That's two good young players off the roster, and no picks in between #1 and the early third round. And my gut tells me that this offer, while in the ballpark, wouldn't be enough to close a deal.

What do you think? Too much to give up? Not enough? Would you make the deal?