Leafs/Wings 24/7 - Who'll emerge as the star of the series?

he Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings are just weeks away from facing off in this year's Winter Classic in front of 107,000 fans at the Big House, and that's great. The league's annual New Year's Day game has become one of the cooler traditions in sports, even sucking in casual viewers thanks to the sheer spectacle of seeing hockey played in the elements in front of massive crowds.

But hockey fans know that if the Classic is getting close, something even better is right around the corner: 24/7.

Yes, this week we'll finally get to enjoy the return of HBO's behind-the-scenes reality series, which chronicles the event's two teams in the month leading up to the game. This year's four-episode season begins Saturday and runs until January 4.

In the three years since its debut, 24/7: Road to the Winter Classic has become essential viewing for any hockey fan. And from Mike Green's scooter to Bruce Boudreau's facial sauce to Ilya being Ilya, it has proven to be the type of show that can create indelible memories.

So who'll be this year's breakthrough star? It's hard to say, since if history's any guide, it may end up being someone you'd never expect. But here are the 12 players and personalities who I think are the most likely to steal the show.

Pavel Datsyuk

Datsyuk appears to be the current odds-on favorite to emerge as the star. While he has never seemed like an especially outgoing character, teammates say he's funny and engaging once you get to know him. He's already one of the league's most popular players — or at least one of its least-hated — so 24/7 could take him to another level.

And there's a good chance it will; Datsyuk is the perfect candidate to be a reality TV breakout star. He has been an unlikely success story, going undrafted twice before the Wings finally nabbed him with the 171st pick in 1998. He overcame a language and culture barrier to slowly emerge as a star over his first three seasons, then erupted after the 2005 lockout to become one of the league's top scorers. He's a two-way player (he has won three Selkes as best defensive forward) and one of the cleanest competitors (he won the Lady Byng as most gentlemanly player four straight times).

Even his fellow players love him. He was the first overall pick in the most recent All-Star draft, and every player poll basically turns into the "We love Datsyuk" show. If that's not enough, he's also a hell of a dancer. And he tweets pictures of cats.

He has basically become the heir to Teemu Selanne's "player who nobody says anything bad about ever" throne, and unless he spends every moment of his screen time casually forearming baby otters in the throat, he's going to be the star of the series.

Prediction: HBO's high-tech cameras capture Datsyuk's stickhandling in super slow motion, and nine months later, NHL fans are naming their newborn babies "Pavel Jr."

Joffrey Lupul

Other than Datsyuk, this is just about the easiest call of them all. Lupul was pretty much born for this. He can be funny, as demonstrated by his Twitter account. He has a variety of interests, as evidenced by his various forays into the fashion world. And he's not exactly shy in front of a camera, based on his recent experience as a nude model.

The only downside is that Lupul has been hurt recently, which could cut into his camera time in the first episode or two. Of course, the extra down time may have just given him a chance to work on even more material. Besides, if he's healthy enough to get to the makeup chair, I can't see him missing out on the opportunity.

So Lupul's pretty much a lock for a starring role. In fact, once HBO producers get a glimpse of his Zoolander gaze, the only question may be whether they even bother letting any other Leafs on the show.

Prediction: Leafs CEO Tim Leiweke can't figure out why HBO keeps spelling "Jeffrey" wrong.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

Behind the scenes of the 2012 Free Agent Frenzy

Just a reminder that there was a time when Zach
Parise was capable of actually signing something.

The last 48 hours have marked the “free agent frenzy” period in the NHL – the first opportunity for unrestricted free agents to consider offers from teams around the league. Despite a relatively thin crop of available players this year, fans were expecting plenty of movement and big dollar deals. They weren’t disappointed.

By the end of the first day, reports had the total spending spree at almost $200 million. That total only grew on Monday, with several big names who sat out day one coming to terms.

It all made for a hectic few days, and you’d be forgiven if you missed a few details here and there. Here’s a rundown of the major moments the past two days.

Sunday, 8:48 a.m. – For the fourth straight day, Dennis Wideman wakes up muttering “I had the craziest dream” before realizing he was indeed sleeping on a giant pile of Jay Feaster’s money.

Sunday, 11:03 a.m. – People all around Toronto take a break from thinking about free agency to head out with friends and family to celebrate Canada Day – or, as the entire Maple Leafs roster refers to it, “only three more days until July 4”.

Sunday, 12:42 p.m. – As the first signings trickle in, HBO 24/7 producers go ahead and start writing the “Jonas Gustavsson shuts out the Maple Leafs” epilogue for this year’s final episode.

Sunday, 2:13 p.m. - After spending the entire day frantically working the phones, the Minnesota Wild front office decide that everyone in the media has now heard that they plan to be in on Zach Parise and Ryan Suter and they can maybe call a few hockey players now.

Read the rest of this post...

Beyond the trade deadline: Other dates to look forward to this season

I have no idea what any of these words mean.

It’s over. After weeks of nonstop speculation, swirling rumors and backroom intrigue, the trade deadline has finally passed. The dust has settled, the phone lines have gone quiet, and there won’t be another significant NHL player transaction made until the offseason.

Wait! Where are you going? Come back!

OK, it’s true that the days immediately after the deadline can feel like a letdown for hockey fans. The buildup to the big day can be so overwhelming that it can be difficult to make the sudden adjustment to a world without trade talk. It’s only natural that some hockey fans may find themselves, at least temporarily, struggling to stay interested.

But it doesn’t have to be that way. After all, there’s still plenty of excitement left to come in the 2011-12 season. So just to refresh your memory, here are some of the important moments that fans can look forward to over the coming weeks and months

February 28 – After several days of trying, Leafs goaltenders James Reimer and Jonas Gustavsson finally extract themselves from under the team’s bus and head off to Ron Wilson’s office to find out which one of them is starting that night.

March 1 – As he continues to get settled in with his new team, Ben Bishop wonders why the Senators are suddenly enforcing this new “Goalies may only ever eat ice cream and soup” rule.

March 4 - A confused Jay Feaster tries to figure out why nobody seems interested in talking trade with him.

March 8 – Jeff Carter returns to Columbus for the first time as a member for the Los Angeles Kings and is greeted with a lengthy ceremony, if Rick Nash following him around and sobbing “Please take me with you!” all game long can really be considered a ceremony.

Read the rest of this post...

Ron Wilson sings "Reimer"

Bloge Salming and I made this for you. May god have mercy on our souls.

RSS readers, click here.

You can also view this video at TheScore.com's Houses Of The Hockey blog. Visit blogesalming.com for more hockey fun.

MLSE's Real Sports Bar & Grill: The leaked menu

Last night was the highly anticipated grand opening of MLSE's Real Sports Bar & Grill. The massive establishment is the latest crown jewel in the MLSE corporate empire, and is sure to become Toronto's premier dining destination. Located right outside the ACC, Real Sports will open to the public next week and hosted a special invitation-only sneak peek last night.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to make it due to prior commitments, travel complications, and the restraining order. But some of my spies were able to sneak in and get their hands on one of the menus. Even though it's top secret, I'm publishing it here.

Ever wondered what a Maple Leafs-themed restaurant would serve up? Wonder no more.

Download

Twelve factors behind the Leafs' sudden turnaround

Don't look now, but the rebuilt Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the hottest teams in the NHL since the Olympic break. The team has won six of their last seven, and seems to showing significant signs of hope after an otherwise awful season.

Why? What's changed? How can a team that's already bad trade away almost all of their veterans and suddenly emerge as a world beater?

I spent the weekend breaking down the video tape of the team's recent games, I've come to the conclusion that what we're seeing is actually the result of a combination of factors. Below are the twelves recent changes that I think have been the most important to the Leafs stunning turnaround.

• Ron Wilson wisely ensured that Phil Kessel would be well-rested for the stretch run by ordering him to do absolutely nothing during the Olympics.
  
  
• The team has responded well to newcomer Dion Phaneuf's legendarily inspiring pre-game motivational rock-bangings.
  
  
• Since trading Vesa Toskala, the team's save percentage has improved to 1.000 on shots taken from behind the opponent's goal line.
  
  
• After extensive research, the coaching staff discovered a loophole in NHL rulebook that allows a shorthanded team to shoot the puck all the way down ice without being called for icing. Did you know about that? Dude, it changes everything!
  
  
• Tyler Bozak woke up one morning and decided to start being ridiculously good.
  
  
• The absence of Lee Stempniak has created an opportunity for younger players to step into the role of a fourth-liner who contributes absolutely nothing.
  
  
• Nikolai Kulemin has embraced the opportunity to spend time on the first line, kill penalties, and play during key defensive situations, experience that will prove invaluable when he's in the KHL next year.
  
  
• Tomas Kaberle's steadfast refusal to waive his NTC and continued insistence that he wants to win a championship in Toronto has become an inspiration to the team's young players to win now, since they now realize that even a few seasons of NHL hockey can be enough to cause early onset of dementia.
  
  
• Not completely sure, but there's an outside chance that facing second and third-string goalies every night has something to do with it.
  
  
• Goaltending coach Francois Allaire has worked hard with Jonas Gustavsson to correct the flaws in his game, such as overcommitting on cross-ice passes, losing track of rebounds, and letting his heart explode in the middle of key games.
  
  
• After almost five years, finally got around to practicing this shootout thing.
  
  
• The team's veterans are motivated by the knowledge that if they play poorly enough, Brian Burke won't hesitate to demote them to the team's AHL affiliate in Calgary.

An open letter to Vesa Toskala

What's Swedish for "GTFO"?

Former Maple Leafs goalie Vesa Toskala was recently quoted taking a few shots at Toronto, telling reporters that he was looking forward to an opportunity to "wash that blue and white out of my gear".

Toskala is certainly entitled to his opinions. However, in the spirit of respectful dialog, Down Goes Brown would like to offer the response below.

Dear Vesa,

Thanks for stopping by my blog. I'll pause for a moment while you configure your screen reading software.

It's now been ten days since you were traded. Soon you'll be making your debut with Anaheim, pending the resolution of some visa issues that were presumably caused by a customs agent who was a Ducks fan. In any event, it was probably a pleasant change for you to be involved in a story where something was actually denied entry.

You're currently involved in a mini-controversy with your new team, who have denied your request to wear your familiar #35. They're apparently unaware of how important that number is to you, given that it represents your approximate career save percentage. But let's not focus on Anaheim -- instead, let's take a look back at your time in Toronto.

You came to Toronto three years ago when you were acquired in a trade by John Ferguson Jr., which should have been our first hint as to how things would turn out. In your initial training camp you managed to lose the starter's job to Andrew Raycroft, which is somewhat like losing a slam dunk contest to Stephen Hawking. But eventually you assumed the starter's role, and fans in Toronto had a chance to get to know you.

You had your good points. For example, fans never had to worry about an extended streak of poor performances since you could always be counted on to fake a groin injury as soon as things went bad. You were responsible for more groin-related fakery than Meg Ryan in When Harry Met Sally. The only legitimate lower-body injury you ever suffered was a chronic distended bladder, caused by your unfortunate habit of taking a small sip of water after every goal against.

Despite that, fans were prepared to embrace you. Toronto is a town that loves its goaltenders, from the prickly Ed Belfour to the comatose Felix Potvin. We were ready to make you our next goaltending idol, like Curtis Joseph. Instead, after three seasons the only Joseph-inspired activity we wanted to see you involved with was a roundhouse kick to the face.

(And yes, I could have also gone with "getting hit in the face with a Wendel Clark slapshot". But that would involve a puck making contact with you, and we have no actual evidence that that's physically possible.)

Since the trade, we've learned that you didn't enjoy working with Leafs goaltending coach François Allaire, who described you as "not a guy who likes to build relations with coaches". In fairness, Allaire was probably difficult to work with since his three Stanley Cup rings would distract you when he tried to point out that you had your pads on upside down. Word is you had trouble adapting to the famous "Allaire style", which includes such complex techniques as "Don't stand with your entire body inside the net", "Hey maybe try opening your eyes for a change", and "Seriously, get out of your net before I run over you with this zamboni".

Anyway, you may be gone, but we'll always have the memories. For example, you once allowed a 185-foot dribbler to beat you in Long Island. Many physicists would argue that it's impossible to get beat top corner by a puck that's actually rolling, but you managed to prove them wrong. Then you outdid yourself this season in a game against the Sabres, when you managed to reach out with your glove hand and deflect a harmless dump-in straight into your own net. The goal was watched with disbelief by Leaf fans around the world, who until that moment had been unaware that you actually owned a glove hand.

All this is not to say that everyone in Toronto is happy to see you go. The local twine-repair industry, until recently a multi-million dollar business, has fallen on hard times. But local environmentalists are thrilled that MLSE has significantly reduced its carbon footprint, since it will no longer have a red light bulb that stays lit for most of every game.

It didn't work out for you in Toronto, but I'm sure Leaf fans join me in wishing you best in your future endeavors. Good luck the rest of the year in Anaheim, next year in the KHL, two years from now in ECHL, three years from now in the GTHL, and, eventually, as the starter in Montreal.

Just get the hell out of Toronto. And don't let the door handle slip untouched through your fivehole on the way out.

Your friends,
Leafs Nation

The other Toronto Maple Leaf training camp letters

If you're a Leafs fan, you've probably seen this training camp letter from 1962 by now. It's been making the e-mail rounds for weeks.

The apparently real letter is from Leafs' GM Punch Imlach to player Jim Pappin, informing him of the schedule for the upcoming training camp. It's filled with nostalgia for a bygone era, including quaint references to train travel, mandatory golfing sessions, and the requirement that all players be able to do 20 pushups.

But while the Pappin letter makes for a fun look back at hockey's past, many fans don't realize that these letters are a Toronto tradition. Every summer, the current Leafs general manager sits down to type out a letter to his players to let them know what to expect in September. And I just happen to have several original copies in my collection.

For example, here's the letter Brian Burke sent out this past summer:

Can't see the image? Download it here.

And here's the letter from the year before, when Cliff Fletcher was in charge:

Can't see the image? Download it here.

And, of course, the 2007 letter:

Can't see the image? Download it here.

The Maple Leafs team Christmas party

I received a tip over the weekend that the Leafs would be holding their annual Christmas party at a nearby establishment. I deployed some of my trusted DGB spies (now armed with video cameras), and they were able to infiltrate the proceedings and capture this exclusive footage.

(Thanks to Bloge Salming. Visit his site every day or Komisarek says you're next.)

Happy holidays, everyone, and here's hoping that you and yours get everything you asked for. Just like Phil Kessel.

When teammates attack: Other teammate-inflicted NHL injuries

The Florida Panthers' playoff
chances: an interpretive dance

Keith Ballard is the talk of the hockey world today, thanks to his bizarre slash to the head that left teammate Tomas Vokoun bleeding on a stretcher.

But while Ballard is certainly an extreme case, he's not the first NHL player to accidentally cause an injury to a teammate. In fact, over the past few years the league has seen several regrettable incidents. Here's a look at some that had the biggest impact.

The player: Jonas Gustavsson
The injury: Heart arrhythmia due to repetitive trauma to the middle of his chest
What happened: Cumulative effect from a full month of facing Jason Blake in practice every day.

The player: Joe Thornton
The injury: Damaged windpipe due to choking
What happened: Unaware of strict internal rules regarding team meals, new teammate Dany Heatley mentions the word "playoffs".

The player: Andrei Markov
The injury: Sprained MCL
What happened: Repetitive strain of constantly having to drop to one knee to hold a conversation with the Habs' various offseason acquisitions.

The player: Brad Boyes
The injury: Severe hoof damage across his back
What happened: Wandered in between Keith Tkachuk and the post-game buffet.

The player: Alexei Ponikarovsky
The injury: Lower back pain, swollen ankles, and gestational diabetes
What happened: Accidentally made eye contact with Luke Schenn.

The player: Entire Vancouver Canucks defence
The injury: Second and third degree sunburns to the back of the neck.
What happened: Were forced to play an entire game in front of Andrew Raycroft.

The player: Rick DiPietro
The injury: Multiple fractures, torn ligaments, internal organ failure
What happened: Teammate Brendan Witt turned on a rotating fan in the dressing room, causing a light breeze.

The player: Marian Hossa
The injury: Lacerations to both wrists
What happened: New teammate Patrick Kane introduced himself by saying "Wow, you played for Pittsburgh and Detroit? Can I see your Cup rings?"

The player: Marc Staal
The injury: Impaired vision
What happened: Learning the details of Wade Redden's free agent contract caused eyes to cartoonishly pop out of head, detaching both retinas.

The player: Daniel Carcillo
The injury: Concussion
What happened: During a heated debate on the validity of the inferential thesis, Carcillo argues for Gibson's "ecological approach" to the conception of perception, leading Riley Cote (a known advocate of Fodor and Pylyshyn's stance that affordances presuppose direct perception and therefore can not be used to explain it) to hit him over the head with a folding chair.

The player: Chris Neil
The injury: Two broken ankles
What happened: Instinctively leapt out of eighth floor hotel window after Chris Phillips mentioned that the bellhop kind of looked like Colton Orr.

The player: Chris Drury
The injury: Existential crisis
What happened: Realization that Sean Avery continues to pull incredibly hot women forced him to question the very existence of a just and merciful god.

The player: Mike Fisher
The injury: Broken jaw and fractued orbital bone
What happened: Tried to keep a straight face when Daniel Alfredsson delivered his "Go ahead and write it, I guarantee we'll win the Cup" quote.

One year of Brian Burke: A look back

Rare footage of Brian Burke
speaking to the media.

This weekend marked the one-year anniversary of Brian Burke being named general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs. It's been an eventful year, with some highs and a few lows.

So break out the party hats and balloons, and let's take a look at some of the highlights of Burke's first year in Toronto.

November 29, 2008 - While outlining his strategy at his first press conference as general manager, Burke delivers his infamous quote about "proper levels of pugnacity, testosterone, truculence and belligerence". Confused Leaf fans rush to their dictionaries, and are disappointed to discover that every one of those words means "terrible goaltending".

December 6, 2008 - Dave Nonis joins the Leafs front office, assuming the newly created position of "Vice President In Charge of Tampering With The Vancouver Canucks".

February 23, 2009 - Burke receives a call from Eklund alerting him that someone is impersonating him on Twitter. An enraged Burke immediately summons his lawyers and top advisors, loudly demanding to know who the hell gave Eklund his phone number.

March 4, 2009 - Trade deadline day. Despite high hopes that he could trade one or more of his top line players, Burke's plans are thwarted when he realizes other team's have actually seen the Leafs play.

April 6, 2009 - Burke names Ron Wilson the coach of Team USA's Olympic squad. Burke explains the choice by noting that Wilson has extensive experience, has coached internationally, and will have lots of time to work on gameplans since he'll be unemployed by mid-December.

April 14, 2009 - Burke surprises observers by emphatically declaring that he thinks the Leafs will make the playoffs in '09-10, although in fairness, he never specifies which millennium.

June 19, 2009 - In an effort to impress free agent goaltender Jonas Gustavsson during a visit to Toronto, Burke arranges the Leafs' dressing room to highlight the team's goaltending history. Gustavsson is impressed to see Johnny Bower's jersey hanging by the entrance, Terry Sawchuk's jersey hanging in a corner, and Vesa Toskala's jersey hanging from a bathroom stall toilet paper dispenser.

June 22, 2009 - At the NHL draft, Burke turns down a proposed Kaberle-for-Kessel trade by explaining to Peter Chiarelli that the he won't include a first round pick in the deal. Chiarelli responds "Oh, don't worry, you won't be trading a first round pick for Kessel", and then laughs like Emperor Palpatine for fifteen straight minutes until a confused Burke finally hangs up on him.

July 1, 2009 - With minutes to go before the noon deadline, Daniel and Henrik Sedin each agree to an extension with the Vancouver Canucks. They then throw open the curtains on their Stockholm apartment window, revealing Burke standing awkwardly in the street below holding a boombox.

July 25, 2009 - Dave Poulin's interview for a front office position is marred by an uncomfortable silence after Poulin compliments Burke on the incredibly lifelike replica of Richard Peddie's head he has mounted in his office.

September 18, 2009 - Burke completes the long-rumored trade for Kessel. While many observers criticize the deal for including two first round picks, Burke defends the move by correctly pointing out that the Leafs wouldn't have drafted anyone good anyways.

November 24, 2009 - Burke's son Brendan announces that he is gay, with his father's full support. Leaf fans are thrilled, recognizing this as the only chance they'll ever have to see Brian Burke take part in a parade.

Alexander Ovechkin's other excuses for not lighting up the Maple Leafs

Saturday night's game didn't quite go they way hockey fans were expecting. With Alexander Ovechkin and the Caps in town to play the last-place Leafs, a blowout seemed inevitable. When it was announced that struggling Vesa Toskala would start for Toronto, even the most die-hard Leaf fans was expecting the Caps to hit double digits.

It didn't happen. Instead, Ovechkin managed a goal but was largely shutdown by the Leafs during an upset 2-1 win for the home side.

Adding to the mystery was Ovechkin's bizarre post-game excuse: that he "couldn't breathe" due to the "atmosphere" inside the ACC. Yes, he really did say that.

Well, it gets even stranger. Because as it turns out, the ACC's suffocating atmosphere was only one of several excuses Ovechkin offered for failing to light up the Leafs as expected. Apparently the local papers didn't print them all due to lack of space, but I've reproduced the full list below.

• Had specifically requested his special "too hot to handle" sticks for the game; instead, sticks were only slightly above normal temperature.
  
  
• Entire Caps team was thrown off when, despite the tendencies they had noted during hours of film study, Vesa Toskala occasionally moved.
  
  
• Paid too much attention to the fans in the ACCs' lower bowl, leading him to assume the pre-game moment of silence was still going on three hours later.
  
  
• Was initially intimidated upon learning that the Leafs had spent $24M on their defence; had mistakenly assumed it might include some good players.
  
  
• Found it hard to concentrate after suddenly getting that "Ovechkin-Laichs-Semin" joke.
  
  
• Didn't want to single-handedly humiliate Ron Wilson and Brian Burke with completely unstoppable and dominating performance; saving that for Olympics.
  
  
• Would have scored more, but Jonas Gustavsson kept making sprawling glove saves from the bench.
  
  
• Has been scared to score ever since seeing this.
  
  
• During pre-game chat, Jason Blake assured him that first-line wingers could float through games in Toronto with absolutely no consequences.
  
  
• Hasn't quite adjusted to the NHL's brand new "Alexander Ovechkin can't just go around slewfooting everyone" rule.
  
  
• Had heard a rumor that if the game went to a shootout, entire Leafs roster would embarrass themselves with a ridiculously demeaning attempt at rally caps.
  
  
• Um, pretty much the same reason Lebron James doesn't dunk on the wheelchair basketball guys.

Leafs vs. Wings - My night at the ACC

Photography is hard.

Saturday night, I was at the ACC to watch the Leafs take on the Red Wings.

This was a big deal. While I did manage to make semi-regular trips to Maple Leaf Gardens, I've been living in Ottawa for the entire ACC era. I got to one game in the early days, but nothing since.

So this game marked only the second time in a decade that I've seen the Leafs play a home game. Unless you count every game they play in Ottawa. Which I do.

An occasion like this deserves a play-by-play. So here's an in-person breakdown of the Leafs first home win of the season.

6:50: We settle into our seats. The fans around me for this evening will include: "Guy who keeps yelling 'MONSTER' after every Gustavsson save"; "Guy who ends every sentence with the word 'yo' "; and "Guy who complains 'he cost us our future' every time any current or former Leaf is shown on the scoreboard"

And finally there's... well, there's really no nice way to say this... there's "nice young female Red Wings fan who doesn't seem to realize she's showing the entire section her butt crack every time she stands up". She's sitting directly in front of me, by the way.

On the bright side, the preceding paragraph was the first one in history to include "Red Wings" and "crack" but not "Bob Probert".

6:55 - True story: my phone refuse to connect to twitter from within the ACC. You win this round, Burkie.

6:58 - The Leafs show a clever pre-game video highlighting the eight-decade rivalry between the Leafs and Wings. It somehow leaves out Mike Foligno and Nikolai Borschevsky, but it does include a shot of Wendel Clark pummelling Probert, so I'll give it a B+.

7:00 - The Hall of Fame ceremony begins, with the introduction of various living Hall of Famers.

9:15: The Hall of Fame ceremony ends.

(I kid, I kid. Great ceremony. We all enjoyed every second of it.)

7:05 - Brian Leetch is introduced to the crowd. "He cost us our future!" protests the guy behind me, in his best Adam Sandler's mother voice. I can see his point. Maxim Kondratiev and Jarkko Immonen turned out to be awesome.

7:07 - The inductees drop the puck for the ceremonial faceoff. The Leafs are represented by Johnny Mitchell, in what may be the single best argument for maybe picking a real captain once and for all some time soon.

7:10 - The ceremony ends. All the inductees leave the center ice area, except for Brett Hull who circles around waiting for a breakaway pass instead of backchecking.

7:12 - Your referee for tonight's game: Kerry Fraser! I immediately start trying to figure out how many security guards I could fight off. Answer: zero.

7:15 - The game begins. Our seats are in the corner, four rows back of the glass. I'm literally a few feet from the ice, watching everything from the comfort of my seat. I feel like Vesa Toskala.

7:35 - The Leafs get on the board first, as Wayne Primeau beats Chris Osgood cleanly on a two-on-one. I'm not an NHL goaltending coach, but I'm pretty sure "getting beat clean by Wayne Primeau" isn't a good sign for the rest of the night.

7:42 - Gustavsson looks sharp tonight. "MONSTER" guy two rows behind me is already getting hoarse.

7:50 - I get to see Phil Kessel's first goal as a Leaf from about 20 feet away, as he swats home a Jason Blake shot that was going to go in anyways. This leads to an awkward post-goal celebration right in front of us, as Kessel apologizes and Blake pretends he doesn't care, then barely fights off the urge to smash his stick over Kessel's head as soon as his back is turned.

7:52 - Speaking of Jason Blake, is his "Come on Toronto, let's make some noise!" scoreboard appearance available as a standalone DVD? Because I'll buy it. Seriously, MLSE, name your price.

7:58 - The first period ends. Time to go figure out what everyone in the platinum seats is doing during intermission that keeps them from getting to their seats in time for the start of the next period.

8:03 - Fun fact: the restaurant below the platinum section serves a "Platinum Burger" that costs $38. It comes with foie gras torchon, sautéed shallots, and a picture of the starving African child you could have fed for a month with $38.

8:06 - People are walking into the restaurant, sitting down and ordering full course meals. During the first intermission. I'm seriously considering flipping over some tables.

8:11 - On the way back to our seats, we walk by the fabled platinum lounges. These underground bunkers can best be described as standard NHL luxury boxes, but without an actual view of the ice. For many hockey fans, that would be considered a problem. The folks at the ACC don't seem to notice.

8:15 - The teams switch sides for the second period, meaning Jonas Gustavsson will be guarding the net right in front of us. So if you're hoping to read any more close-up descriptions of goals, you're going to need to skip ahead.

8:27 - Jeff Finger scores to put the Leafs ahead 3-0. First Primeau, now Finger? If Rickard Wallin scores tonight, Osgood may hang himself.

8:32 - Every time Kessels on the ice, "He cost us our future" guy is borderline apoplectic. I'm desperately trying to think of a way to get within earshot and casually mention the Owen Nolan trade.

8:35 - Highlight of the period: Gustavsson freezes a shoot-in with his glove. After a delayed whistle, referee Eric Furlatt skates over to have an extended conversation with Gustavsson about delay of game rules. A few seconds into discussion, Gustavsson turns away, rolls his eyes, and pretends to be deeply interested in his water bottle. Furlatt keeps talking to the back of his head, leading to Mike Komisarek eventually coming over and subtley steering him out of the crease. As far as I know, Furlatt is still lecturing Gustavsson from Philadelphia right now.

8:50 - "MONSTER" guy is looking a little flush.

8:55 - Second intermission. Under advice from my doctor, I decide to stay in my seat.

9:17 - The Wings pull to within 3-1 on an early goal by Dan Cleary. I call the ACC game day staff and cancel my "Jonas, will you marry me?" scoreboard message.

9:28 - The Leafs restore the three goal lead when John Mitchell tips in a Phil Kessel shot. Wait, no, that wasn't accurate, let me try again: Phil Kessel's shot happens to hit John Mitchell's stick on the way into the net. Seriously, Mitchell had no idea. He stole that move from me, by the way. Except instead of going into the net, the puck ricochets into the corner. And instead of my stick, it's usually my groin.

9:32 - Gustavsson crosses the 30-save mark. "MONSTER" guy is no longer wearing pants.

9:36 - Despite a lifetime of attending live sporting events, I've never caught a puck or a foul ball. But my luck may be changing. Tonight, I caught Jason Williams' fibula.

9:45 - During the dying moments, Gustavsson skates over the Leafs bench, punches Toskala in the face, and returns to his crease in time to stop a 3-on-0.

9:50 - The final buzzer sounds, and Osgood storms off the ice. Or, more accurately, he storms over to the door leading off the ice -- and then gets rejected by an usher, who refuses to open the door because there's going to be a post-game ceremony and the Red Wings aren't allowed to leave yet. Apparently nobody told them.

So we get to see the entire Wings team forced to line up on the blue line to watch Gustavsson get "player of the game" honors. As Gustavsson awkwardly tries to figure out how to accept a trophy from Johnny Bower, the Wings look at each other with "wait, are we allowed to leave yet?" expressions on their face. High comedy.

10:00 - We file out of the ACC. After an almost ten-year absence, I've witnessed Kessel's first goal, Gustavsson's best game, and the first Leafs home win in seven months.

Is all of that completely, utterly, 100% due to me being there? No, of course not. The real percentage is probably only in the 80-90% range.

But let's not take any chances, ACC -- get those comped season tickets in the mail now. I'll be there for you. I'm all about the team.

Phil Kessel is amazing and that makes me sad

Maybe I'll pass to Blake.
Oh man, I crack myself up.

Phil Kessel made his debut for the Leafs tonight. You may have heard about it, since there were apparently one or two media stories about the whole thing.

The best line of the night came via twitter from @Archimedies, who observed that "Phil Kessel plays like an NHL10 Be A Pro". And he does. Specifically, he plays like me playing Be A Pro. I kept waiting for Kessel to stay on the ice for an entire period, score twice into an empty net and then start a fight with three seconds left to pad his PIM totals.

The Leafs' game plan for Kessel is apparently to play every second shift, generally ignore his linemates, and shoot at every opportunity from every angle.

And here's the thing: I don't think that's a bad plan.

Because even after just a few shifts, it was obvious that Phil Kessel is easily the best player on this team. His game sense is excellent. His release is lightning fast. He has that unteachable ability to drift into exactly the right spot at exactly the right moment.

No, he didn't score tonight. But if he plays like this every night, he'll get his 35 goals easily, and maybe a lot more.

And for those of us still aboard the Leafs bandwagon (or, as it will be known from this point on, the "Kessel Vessel"), that makes tonight a mixed blessing. Because the good news is that Phil Kessel is far better than any other forward the Leafs have to offer.

The bad news is that... well... Phil Kessel is far better than any other forward the Leafs have to offer.

Watching a talent like Kessel go to work, it's hard not to notice the skill gap between him and so-called frontline talent like Mikhail Grabovski or Matt Stajan. The contrast was unmistakable on virtually every shift. It was enough to make me want to take the pen I was using to write "Mrs. Down Goes Gustavsson" in little hearts on my three-ring binder and jam it into my eye.

In short, it's the difference between a true first line talent, and a guy who happens to play on the first line because, well, somebody has to. Kessel is the former. Everyone else on the roster is the latter.

And we knew this already, or course. But we could pretend. Not any more. Not with Kessel buzzing around, reminding us of what a good player actually looks like.

So yes, Phil Kessel seems like the real deal, an elite talent. But he brings the grand total of Leaf forwards in that category to one. And tonight was a reminder that the rest of the bunch aren't even close.

And that's why this team, even with a healthy Phil Kessel, still isn't good enough to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning at home.

Live blogging the Battle of Ontario

I'll be liveblogging tonight's game between the Leafs and Senators over at TheScore.com. Join me, won't you?

Join the liveblog

Please feel free to jump in, as we discover the answer to questions such as:

• With Jonas Gustavsson getting the start, will the Senators concede the game prior to introductions or wait until the opening faceoff?
  
  
• Just how depressed will I get when the Monster gives up the opening goal on a 50-foot floater 30 seconds in?
  
  
• Will Chris Neil get his face caved in by:
  a.) Colton Orr
  b.) Jay Rosehill
  c.) Colton Orr and Jay Rosehill; or
  d.) nobody because this will be one of those games where he mysteriously decides his job is to be an "agitator" instead.
  
  
• Will Mikhail Grabovski and Jason Spezza finally play a full shift together and create the fabled Perpetual Neutral Zone Turnover Machine?
  
  
• Wasn't all of this way more fun when Pat Quinn was still alive?

It should be a good time, so please stop by if you're online during the game.

After all, you know how much I love the Battle of Ontario...

Google knows all

Got to hand it to those Google guys. They're very wise.

DGB and PPP vs. two drunk Hawks fans: The podcast

PPP (left) and DGB pose for
a pre-podcast publicity photo

Last night I made my third appearance on the Hockeenight podcast. And while the first two were fun, this one featured a special appearance by Pension Plan Puppets to even out the odds.

Topics covered included:

• Kyle Wellwood is fat
  
• Whether a bear could beat a man in a hot dog eating contest
  
• The recent Leafs/Hawks draft pick swap
  
• Leafs Abomi-Nation, and why it will be terrible.
  
• No, seriously, Kyle Wellwood is fat.
  
• Jonas Gustavsson conspiracy theories
  
• Suggested tourism slogans for Hamilton
  
• Why Team USA is going to finish 12th at the Olympics
  
• Chat heckling from Bitter Leaf Fan and Odin Mercer
  
• Todd Gill: Awesome, or super-awesome?
  
• No, we don't care if you want to cover serious hockey topics, PPP and I are just going to keep talking about how Kyle Wellwood is fat.
  
• And a hilarious observation about the Gartner-for-Anderson trade...

You can download the podcast for free from itunes, or listen to it online below:



(Side note: Yes, PPP really is on the podcast. He doesn't say anything for the first 20 minutes, but he's there. He's just building the dramatic tension.)

A few other things:

• I was invited to participate in the DC Cheap Seats' hockey survey. You can read my answers here.
  
• This is a few weeks old, but I also had an entry in Puck Daddy's Five Reasons I Love Hockey series. And if you're thinking that I used the opportunity to go on about Wendel Clark and Kerry Fraser, you would be right.

So as you can see, I've been busy. In fact, I think I've made an appearance on every hockey blog except... this one. But we'll get that fixed in September. Double figure posts this month, guaranteed!

Probably. Maybe.

Bad hockey predictions: Black swans, hindsight bias, and why the Leafs could win the Cup.

(Editor's note: This is one of those annoying serious posts, but if you stick with it I promise to slip in a "Kyle Wellwood is fat" joke somewhere. If not, I'll be back with some fun stuff later in the week.)

The new season is almost here, and that means it's time for one of hockey's annual traditions -- terrible, terrible predictions.

One example: Inspired by a recent brilliant post on Puck Daddy, the folks over at Mile High Hockey spent some time digging through ESPN's hockey archives, and found out that, predictably, ESPN is awful at making predictions.

None of their small army of so-called experts successfully picked the Penguins as Cup winners, and most ended up picking champs who didn't even end up winning a single round.

The experts: Not just wrong, but lazy too
This isn't a surprise. Hockey predictions are always awful. Ask a typical hockey expert to predict the coming season and chances are they'll take last year's standings, move a few teams up or down one spot, and call that "analysis".

And they'll be wrong. Not just a little bit wrong, but terribly, hilariously, "not even in the ballpark" wrong.

This time last year, everyone agreed that the Habs would win the Stanley Cup. The Stars and Avs would contend in the West, the Blues would challenge for last place overall, and the Bruins would struggle to make the playoffs.

Everybody agreed on this. Everybody was wrong. And this happens every single year.

It would be tempting to point at this as evidence that so-called hockey experts are really just frauds who know as much (or less) as you or I. But there's actually more to it than that. Hockey experts aren't frauds. They're just human.

Human are terrible at making predictions
Find any prediction from any time on any subject -- sports, politics, economics -- and it's likely that it turned out to wrong.

A year before the US election, most experts were arguing over whether Hillary Clinton would beat Rudy Guliani. Find any resource that does financial analysis and you'll find plenty of experts who swore the economy could never tank, right up until the economy tanked. Find any prediction ever made about what the world would be like in the future, then look outside your window and count how many flying cars you see.

We love to make predictions about the future. And when we do, we're almost always wrong. What's going on?

There's just some basic math at play here that's hard to overcome. Take any system with even the slightest bit of complexity, start predicting the possible states, and you pretty quickly find that you're dealing with some pretty large numbers -- large enough that predicting anything with much accuracy becomes near impossible.

Now nobody looks at a set of sports predictions and expects the expert to be exactly right. But there are so many unknowns and moving parts that even being vaguely, sort-of, quasi-right ends up being incredibly unlikely.

So it's not that we're bad at predicting complex things because we're dumb. We're bad at it because, mathematically, it's almost impossible. But we don't seem to know that. Plenty of psychological experiments have shown that when you ask people to make predictions, and then ask them to rate their confidence in their predictions, they always miss by a mile.

Put another way: we're not just bad at making predictions, we're bad at predicting how bad our predictions will be. No matter how many times we're wrong, we always think we're going to be right next time. And we never are.

Excuse me sure, I think your bias is showing
Here's the good news: We're terrible at predicting, but we're great at rationalizing.

There's a well known psychological phenomenon called the hindsight bias. Basically, even though we're terrible at predicting what will happen, we're great at fooling ourselves after the fact. We have a built-in ability to pretend that things were predictable all along.

Of course the Habs crashed and burned last year -- look at all the holes in their lineup! Of course the Bruins challenged for first overall -- look at all that young talent! Of course the Stars missed the playoffs -- everyone knew Avery would destroy that dressing room!

Those same experts who couldn't predict the future are more than willing to accurately predict that past.

And it gets worse.

Black swans
In probability, the "black swan" theory was presented by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name. (The book, by the way, is highly recommended if you're really interested in mathematical probability, economics, and authors going on and on about how wonderful they are until you want to hunt them down and slap them.)

Taleb's "black swans" are events that have enormous impact, were unpredictable, and are considered incredibly rare. Examples include 9/11, the rise of the internet, and various stock market meltdowns. Nobody sees them coming, even though everyone agrees that, in hindsight, we should have (there's that bias again).

While not on the same level of importance as world wars and global catastrophes, the sports world is filled with black swans. Kurt Warner. Len Bias. Tom Brady. Mark Prior. All were black swans of the sports world, good and bad.

Hockey has plenty of examples. An undrafted and unwanted Martin St. Louis winning an MVP, Art Ross and Stanley Cup? Black swan. The Red Wings drafting future hall-of-famers in the final rounds of back-to-back drafts? Black swan. Leeman for Gilmour? Black swan. Kyle Wellwood doing a situp? Big time black swan.

What will this year's black swans be? Maybe Jonas Gustavsson wins the Vezina. Maybe Luke Schenn regresses and gets sent to the minors. Maybe Jason Blake works in a pass or two.

Nobody knows. But those black swans are out there, for more than a few teams. They're going to change everything, and they'll throw all the expert analysis right out the window.

So what does all this have to do with anything?
Nobody's arguing that it's impossible to predict anything about the sports world, or that the results we'll see will be determined solely by random chance. Some players and teams are better than others, and they'll probably have better results. That's common sense. Sometimes, things really do work out the way you'd expect.

But there will be surprises. There will be injuries, and blockbuster trades, and guys who come out of nowhere to become stars, and hot shot prospects that turn out to be duds. Virtually every team will have a few black swans of its own that will throw all the conventional wisdom out the window.

All of us -- experts, bloggers, the guy next to you in the bar -- are going to be wrong. By a mile. This season is going to end up looking nothing like what any of us predict.

And when it's all over, we're going to look back and pretend we knew it all along. After all, we're only human.

So here's the bottom line: Ignore the predictions. Sit back and enjoy the ride. And if every expert in the world is predicting that your team will come in dead last this year, don't worry.

They may be right. But don't bet on it.