Weekend rankings: Five early-season storylines I don’t believe in (yet)

We’re two weeks into the season. Do you know what to believe?

Probably not, unless you’re delusional. A typical NHL season doesn’t tip its hand this early, and will even toss a few decoys our way to throw us off the scent of what’s really going on. Nobody should be quite sure what they believe, unless it’s you guys having zero faith in Sam Reinhart. Who leads the league in scoring, by the way.

So no, I’m not quite sure what I’m buying into yet. But I’m starting to narrow down the list, which is where we’ll start with this week’s bonus five.

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Time for an early-season mailbag

Hey folks...

We're a few weeks into the season, and it feels like a good time to do a mailbag. I need your questions. Fun ones, silly ones, complicated ones, simple ones, about everything from fictional awards to history to real, actual hockey news. Topics could include predictions, early surprises, the contest, or whatever you'd like. Please bring it. Send your questions, comments and rants via email at dgbmailbag@gmail.com.

Thanks,
Sean

Nobody believes in Sam Reinhart, and other lessons from the prediction contest

Every year, right before the season starts, I run a prediction contest for readers. I come up with ten simple questions about what’s about to happen – which teams will and won’t make the playoffs, which jobs are safe, which players will have good seasons, that sort of thing. You send in your answers, and we throw it all into a big database and wait.

It’s one of my favorite posts of the year, for two reasons. The first is that you guys are inevitably terrible at predicting the season, and I get to make fun of you all year for it while feeling better about my own equally terrible predictions. That’s the main reason.

But there’s a bonus to this sort of thing, in that it also functions as a stealth survey of where fans are at heading into a season. I don’t know too many places where you can get this sort of volume of hockey fan opinions. It’s not a truly unbiased poll, because it’s self-selected instead of random and I think we can all agree that my readers are smarter than everyone else’s. But it’s pretty close, and it can be interesting to dig into the data and see what the wider hockey world seems to be thinking.

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Do Mark Scheifele or Mika Zibanejad have bad contracts? NHL Cap Court returns

Welcome back to Cap Court, where we put the questionable deals of NHL stars on trial to find out whether they deserve the dreaded "bad contract" label.

As always, we’re viewing “bad” contracts through the lens of the team that’s stuck with them, since that’s ultimately how fans are forced to do it, even though we’d never begrudge a player taking on offer that’s put in front of them. Importantly, we’re also only looking at contracts from this day forward – a deal could have made sense and even provided value for the first few years, but we’re only looking at what’s left on the books.

We’ve been doing this long enough that names like Jonathan Toews, Carey Pruce and Jakub Voracek have been on the docket. Heck, one of the early editions featured Ryan Suter and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, a combined five teams and three buyouts ago. Have all of our calls been proven right? Look, we’ll do the cross-examining around here, thank you very much.

This time around, we’ve got five more names. We'll start with a big-market blueliner...

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Weekend rankings: We’re back, it’s too early, and all the good teams are bad

Welcome back, NHL. And welcome back to the NHL weekend rankings.

If you’re a longtime reader who knows how this all works, feel free to skip ahead to the Bonus Five. But if you’re new, or you could use a refresher, please read the next bit before you rush off to yell at me in the comments.

These rankings are a bit different from some of the others you might find out there. We’re not trying to capture a snapshot of how things stand in the league right now; instead, we’re more interested in trying to figure out how things will end up. The rankings here are based on two questions: Who’s winning the Cup, and who’s going to finish dead last? Simple questions, but hard ones to get right.

So how do we do it? The idea is to take it slow, starting from something that feels like a consensus early on and then gradually adjusting based on what’s happening on the ice. The key there is the “gradually” part; we try really hard not to overreact to a few games here and there. That means that a team doesn’t shoot up the rankings just because they have a good week, or beat the defending champs. And we don’t give up on a preseason favorite just because they stumble out of the gate. Hold that thought.

This way of looking at things isn’t better or worse than the more common approach that other rankings take; it’s just different. The advantage is that we’re less likely to get tripped up by short-term flukes – for example, we never had the Oilers as a bottom-five team last year, even when they had the worst record in the league in mid-November. The main downside is that some of those overreactions are fun, and I get that it’s frustrating when you see your team ranked behind someone they just beat the brakes off of. And yeah, sometimes we’re a little behind on spotting an important trend. As my kids will tell you, that’s not out of character for me.

So that’s it: Think long-term, react cautiously, and don’t expect the rankings to swing wildly based on what happened in the last week. And one more thing: Each week will feature a top and bottom five, plus an extra team in each section that didn’t make the list but feels worth mentioning. That team is not necessarily ranked sixth – if I wanted to do that every week, it would just be a top and bottom six. They’re just a team to talk about. For reasons I’ve never quite understood, this part really seems to trip people up.

Oh, and we also like to throw in a bonus top five based on whatever’s happening. Like this one:

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The 2024-25 NHL All-Intrigue roster: One name from each team to watch this season

The NHL season has started. Are you intrigued?

Probably not, because that's a weird word that only ever gets broken out for gimmicks like this, but whatever. Let's mark the new year with my annual list of names around the league who I'm especially interested in tracking over the coming season.

We’re looking for 12 forwards, six defensemen and two goalies, plus a coach and a GM. One name per team, with enough honorable mentions to get every team a mention. And just to make things a little tougher and spread the intrigue around, nobody from last year’s list is allowed to repeat.

Like all great teams, we’ll build from the net out. Last year’s list started with an American goalie with a new contract who ended up winning the Vezina. Can we make it two years in a row?

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Oddly specific NHL predictions for all 32 teams’ 2024-25 seasons

Every year, I write two annual prediction columns. In one, I try to predict where each team in the league will finish where, and which ones are legitimate Cup contenders.

That column ran last week, and I don’t like it.

Not this year’s version in particular. I just don’t like making those basic meat-and-potato type of calls, because the risk/reward just doesn’t work for me. If I’m right, big deal – oh wow, you had Edmonton as Cup contenders, way to go out on a limb. And of course, if I’m wrong about anyone (which I will be), I have to hear about it from the fan base all year long. Where’s the fun in that?

Then you have the second prediction column. This one. The fun one.

This is the annual column where I get way too specific on my predictions for each team. It’s not enough to think something might happen; I’ll give you an exact date. Oh, some player is going to post nice numbers; good for them, but what specific numbers will those be? Anyone can predict the basic stats; how about the weird ones you’re not even thinking of?

And the best part of all: All of these predictions are so oddly specific that there’s no chance any of them will be right. Unless they are, in which case you will never hear the end of it.

I can’t lose. So let’s dive in, as we drill down on one call for every team.

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It's the return of the NHL prediction contest that’s so easy it’s almost impossible

The NHL season has technically arrived, with a European appetizer being served up today between the Devils and Sabres. But the real debut comes next week, with the other 30 teams seeing their first action beginning on Tuesday. That’s when we’ll finally start to find out how teams will look in games that matter, after weeks of the so-called experts telling us what to expect.

But first: it’s your turn.

After all, if me and all my colleagues are going to be forced to embarrass ourselves with bad predictions, then it’s only fair that you get your chance too. And around these parts, that means an entry in the world’s easiest prediction contest.

The concept is simple. I’ll give you ten questions that should be super easy to answer. You decide how confident you’re feeling, and how many answers you want to give. Each right answer means more points, but each wrong one means you take a zero. But you won’t have to worry about that, because again, the questions are super easy.

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From Stanley Cup contenders to bottom feeders: Predicting the 2024-25 season

Fun fact: In the NHL, the “pre” in preseason stands for predictions. We all have to make them, including you – the reader prediction contest is coming later this week, so be ready. For now, it’s my turn to lay my cards on the table, with my annual division-based attempt to dice up the league.

The rules, as always: I get four divisions, with exactly eight teams each. We’ll have the bottom-feeders, the middle-of-the-pack, the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, and then the teams I just have no idea about. Because I enjoy making my own life difficult, that eight teams per division rule is mandatory. (Insert your own joke here about the “no clue” division having all 32 teams in it otherwise.)

We’ll start form the bottom and work our way up…

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Offer sheets, free agents and… Utah? Rating the West’s offseason with the Bizarro-meter

Welcome to part two of the annual Bizarro-meter rankings, in which we rate each team’s offseason to see which were the weirdest. As always, “weird” doesn’t necessarily mean bad or good or anything in between; this isn’t an evaluation so much as an opportunity to recognize the teams that kept things interesting over a long summer.

Yesterday was the Eastern Conference, with the Capitals and Lightning leading the way. Can anyone from the west top their scores? Spoiler: Yes. But who? Let’s find out.

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A Stamkos exit, deferred payments and more: Rating the East’s offseason with the Bizarro-meter

Slow news summer is finally over, meaningful hockey is almost here, and it’s time to get up to speed on the offseason. Let’s get weird, by firing up the trusty Bizarro-meter to measure which teams had the strangest summers.

If you’ve been following this gimmick for years, maybe even dating back to the original Leafs-only test run from the infamous David Clarkson offseason, then you know the drill and can just skip ahead to the rankings. But if you’re new to this, please consider this very important caveat: “Bizarre” does not necessarily mean “bad”. Teams can do strange things that work out brilliantly. And far more often, teams can take the predictable path of least resistance and end up wishing they’d been more creative. Over here at Bizarro-meter Industries, we are neutral on questions of good and bad. We’re just looking for what was weird.

As always, we’ll do this in two parts by conference. Today is the East, with the West coming tomorrow. Let’s start in the Atlantic.

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Dear TV producers: One fan’s six small requests for the 2024-25 season

While the never-ending dead zone of the offseason drags on, we’re actually getting close to meaningful hockey. Rookie camps are already happening, and the real training camps will open soon. From there, we’ll only have to get past a few weeks of “best shape of his life” chatter, awkward PTOs, and half-speed preseason games before things finally start to matter.

That means that it’s also the time of year when the TV broadcasters are holed up in the spacious meeting rooms in their office towers, holding top-secret meetings to plan out what their coverage for the new season will look like. (Note: I have no idea if this is true.) And that’s good, because this post is for them.

I have a few requests.

Nothing unreasonable. I know that some fans have big-picture changes they’d love to see from the league’s TV partners, but that’s not the point of today’s post. Instead, I’ve got what I think are a half-dozen relatively minor tweaks I’d love to see to the broadcasts. OK, sure, it’s basically a list of pet peeves that I’d like to see addressed, and maybe they only apply to me. But that’s fine, because I’m the main character and everything the NHL does should be tailored to my individual whims, so I’m sure the TV big wigs will be hanging on every word.

Grab a note pad, TV producers and directors, and get ready to make your product way better… at least in one viewer’s eyes.

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Find your team's best roster of short-term stars in the return of The $200 Game

Today’s somehow-still-the-offseason time-waster is the long-awaited return of The $200 Game.

We first tried this a little over five years ago, so a refresher is in order. We’re building six-man rosters – three forwards, two defenseman and a goalie, with no other positional requirements – for individual NHL franchises. The salary cap is $200, and each player costs $1 per regular season game that he played with that team. Each player must have played at least one game, meaning no sneaky zeroes allowed (i.e. the Coyotes Rule).

You get credit for the player’s entire career, so the key is to find guys who had very short stops with one team during a great career spent almost entirely elsewhere. Martin Brodeur in St. Louis, that sort of thing. As we found out last time, that means that trade deadline rentals are our friend, as are stars-turned-journeymen who bounced around a lot over their last few seasons.

I highly recommend going back and checking that original post from five years ago, which will give you the hang of this. Back then, we covered a dozen teams: The Original Six, plus the Penguins, Avalanche, Kings, Stars, Hurricanes and Blues. The consensus was that that the two best teams were the Blues, led by Brodeur and Wayne Gretzky, and the Hawks, led by Bobby Orr and Dominik Hasek.

Today, we’ll see if we can top that with 12 new teams, starting with one that can walk us through how all this works.

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What your favorite NHL penalty says about you, Hat Trick Fever and more: DGB Grab Bag

The hockey world just went an absolutely miserable week, probably one of its worst ever. That might make it a weird time to pull out the old Grab Bag gimmick. Or maybe not, because we could all probably use a laugh right now. Unfortunately you’re stuck with me, so “laugh” might be asking too much, but maybe I can at least get a slightly louder than normal exhale out of you. Let’s see if we can find a way to have some fun.

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Who wins, a team made up of guys who captained more than one team, or guys who were never captains at all?

We’ve almost made it through the dead zone of August. But with a few weeks left in Slow News Summer, I realized we haven’t done a full roster-building exercise. That’s not good, so let’s dive into a topic that’s been in the news lately: Captains.

Today’s question: Who wins, a team made up of guys who captained more than one team, or guys who were never captains at all?

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Martin St. Louis for Jack Adams? Mitch Marner for Art Ross? We made 24 longshot award picks

Predicting the NHL award winners for the coming season can be a hit-and-miss exercise, to put it lightly.

Sometimes the obvious favorite wins, like Connor Bedard taking last year’s Calder. At -135 odds, that means the bookies thought he was more likely to win than everyone else combined, and sure enough he ran away with the award, to absolutely nobody’s surprise.

Other times, the winner is a little bit less obvious, but only a little. Last year’s Rocket Richard favorite was Connor McDavid, but Auston Matthew was right behind him at +300, which is to say 3-to-1 or a 25% chance – hardly a surprise winner. Nathan MacKinnon was 10-to-1 for the Hart, trailing only McDavid. Connor Hellebuyck’s Vezina (13-to-2) and Quinn Hughes’ Norris (10-to-1) were in the same range. 

But we do get surprises, like Rick Tocchet winning the Jack Adams despite being a 25-to-1 preseason longshot, trailing behind 15 other coaches, including several like D.J. Smith, Todd McLellan and Jay Woodcroft who didn’t even make it through the season.

Tocchet became the latest in a long list of surprise award winners, at least based on those preseason odds. That preseason part is important, because many of those winners go on to feel like they were obvious or even inevitable, and it’s hard to remember that there was a time when nobody was expecting them. For example, when Leon Draisaitl won the Hart in 2020, he’d gone into the season as a 22-to-1 longshot. When Adam Fox won the Norris three years ago, he’d been listed at 35-to-1, well back of names like Torey Krug and John Klingberg. Marc-Andre Fleury was 40-to-1 for the 2021 Vezina, trailing behind Mikko Koskinen, while Linus Ullmark was 80-to-1 for the 2023 version, tied with Logan Thompson for 23rd place.

You get the idea. Every now and then, someone comes out of next-to-nowhere to win a major award, and nobody sees it coming.

Or do they? That’s the idea behind today’s post, as three of us -- Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Sean McIndoe -- are going to take our best swing at nailing a longshot. We’ll take eight of the major awards and limit ourselves to players who are listed at 20-to-1 or worse, and try to make the case for why our guy could shock everyone by taking home the hardware.

If we’re right, you’ll never hear the end of it. If we’re wrong, we’ll never bring it up again. Sounds like we can’t miss, so let’s take a shot at this.

(All historical odds are taken from Sports Odds History. All odds for this coming season are from Draft Kings, and were current as of publish date.)

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Ten weird facts from NHL history that bother me more than they should

I know a lot of stuff about the NHL. That’s not bragging, because most of what I know isn’t even vaguely useful, and it all takes up space in my brain that should probably go towards keeping tracks of my wife’s birthday or my children’s hopes and dreams.

But the bigger problem is that a lot of this stuff bothers me. This league, man. Am I right?

So today, in the dead of summer with nothing else happening, I’m going to share some of this stuff with you. Some of you old-timers will already know a few of these. I’m sure I’ve made passing references at least a couple over the years. I’m doing this partly because I think it’s interesting but mainly because I’m hoping some of it annoys you too and I won’t feel like a giant weirdo.

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DGB Summer Mailbag: Gretzky's quote, jersey number trivia, and an alien challenge

Welcome to the August mailbag. Is it going to get weird? (Scans actual headlines.) It had better. Let’s do this.

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and style.

Who wins a seven-game series: The team that just won the Stanley Cup, or the best team that didn't make the playoffs IF the series starts the day after the Cup is won, the challenger is fully healthy, rested and prepared, and the champs don't know the series is happening until that morning? – Ben D.

First of all: This is one of the best questions this mailbag has ever had. But to really make it work, we need to establish the stakes. Otherwise, the easy answer is “The champs just won the Cup so they don’t care if they lose every game 10-0 and wouldn’t bother trying.”

So here’s what we’re playing for: The champs are informed that the Cup is on the line, and if they lose the series then their win is stricken from the record. That ought to get their attention.

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A brief history of the Sam Pollock Trophy, a fake award for NHL Trade of the Year

We’re into August, well and truly the dead zone of the NHL offseason. While we occasionally do see a major roster move or two this late into the summer, it’s just as often the case that all the big headlines are done until we get close to camp.

So if the 2024 offseason is all but over, what was your favorite blockbuster? Was it the Mitch Marner trade that finally blew up the Leafs’ underachieving core? Or maybe big moves involving Martin Necas or Nik Ehlers? Are you going with one of those culture-changing shakeups that the Rangers promised? Or maybe it was when the Ducks finally pulled the trigger on the long-rumored Trevor Zegras deal.

Oh… right.

None of those deals have happened. At least not yet, and in some cases, pretty clearly not anytime soon. The summer hasn’t been a total letdown, with some legitimately big moves involving names like Jacob Markstrom, Mikhail Sergachev, Linus Ullmark and Pierre-Luc Dubois. But overall, if you’re a fan the dying art of the hockey blockbuster, the summer’s been a bit of a letdown.

This sounds like a good excuse to make up another award.

 

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Remember some Guys: Looking back at some famous first names the NHL has lost

Joe Pavelski retired this summer. Actually, he seems to have done it about a half-dozen times, which is weird in its own right, but we’ll allow it. He had a great career, lasting 18 seasons, cracking the 1,000-point mark and representing Team USA internationally.

And while it may not have been quite as important as those accomplishments, Pavelski also did something else: He continued a long line of NHL stars named Joe. It’s been a classic NHL name since the league’s earliest days, when Phantom Joe Malone gave way to Bullet Joe Simpson, paving the way for modern era stars like Joe Sakic, Joe Nieuwendyk and Joe Thornton.

Joe is a great old-school hockey name. But these days, the emphasis is on the “old”, because it’s just not a name your hear much anymore. The popularity of first names will rise and fall over generations, after all, and the NHL is no different. And when Pavelski made his exit official, I’ll admit that one of my first thoughts was: Was that the last Joe we’ll ever see in the NHL?

Not quite, as it turns out. We still have Joe Veleno in Detroit, and if you also count guys named Joey, we’ve got Daccord and Anderson. Crisis averted. The legacy of Joe lives on, at least for a few more years.

But that got me wondering about some other classic hockey first names that haven’t been as lucky. In this new world of Brayden, Jayden and Kayden, a few names you might have come to associate with NHL greatness are now nowhere to be found in the league.

Is this all an incredibly thinly veiled excuse to Remember Some Guys? Of course it is, absolutely. Welcome to slow news summer. Let’s start our list with arguably the most famous hockey name ever.

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Some final thoughts on what we got right and wrong in our goalie outlook rankings

Last week, we published an attempt to rank the goaltending outlook for all 32 NHL teams. It was a three-person effort, with Jesse Granger handling the scouting duties for each team’s current situation, Scott Wheeler grading the prospect pipelines, and Sean McIndoe looking at contracts and cap situations. By averaging out and weighting the scores, we wound up with a countdown from the worst outlook to the very best.

If you missed the series, you can find it here:

• Part 1: the Bottom 10
• Part 2: the Mushy Middle
• Part 3: the Top 10

And then, in a stunning development that nobody could have foreseen, some of you didn’t agree with each and every ranking.

That was fine. It was even a big part of the point. But the twist here is that we didn’t necessarily agree with the overall rankings either. After all, all three of us had our own views, and the final list had come together by averaging them out. That meant that we might not necessarily buy the exact order either.

Scott is enjoying some well-earned vacation this week, but Jess and Sean figured it would be worthwhile to take one last look at the project, and have our say on what we got right, what we think we maybe didn’t, and any final words we can offer.

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Goaltending outlook rankings, part 3 - the Top 10

We’ve made it the third and final part of our attempt to answer one question for each of the 32 NHL team: How good should they feel about their goaltending, both for right now and looking into the future?

Part one covered the bottom 10, and you can find it here. Yesterday, we went through the mushy middle, and that post is here. Today, it’s the top 10.

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Goaltending outlook rankings, part 2 - the mushy middle

Welcome back to our attempt to rank the goaltending outlook of all 32 NHL teams. The basic question we’re trying to answer: How good should each team feel about their goaltending, both for right now and looking into the future?

Yesterday, we introduced the project and counted down the bottom ten. Today, we’re counting down the mushy middle on our way to tomorrow’s Top 10.

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Goaltending outlook rankings, part 1 - the Bottom 10

So you want to talk about the future of NHL goaltending? Good luck.

No really, good luck. You’ll need it. Predicting what will happen with NHL goaltenders in the next game is tough enough, let along looking years down the line. As just one example, have a look back at how NHL GMs ranked the league’s goaltending tiers just three years ago, when Darcy Kuemper was better than Igor Shesterkin, and Jusse Saros and Linus Ullmark couldn’t even crank the top 20 because they were trailing behind Elvis Merzlikins and MacKenzie Blackwood. Over half the players on that list aren’t even starters anymore. A lot can change in the crease, and quickly.

So sure, somewhere out there, right now, a goalie you’ve barely heard of is getting ready to have an out-of-nowhere star turn that will earn him Vezina votes, while somewhere else, a highly paid star we all consider a sure thing is about to face plant and take his team’s season with them. You just can’t predict this stuff with any certainty.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t try. And it doesn’t mean that you can’t put together a snapshot of where the league stands right now. That’s what three of us have set out to do, with a summer project that looks to rank each team’s goaltending outlook.

The basic question here: How good should each team feel about their goaltending situation, both for right now and peering into the future?

Here’s how this will work. We’ve given each of the 32 teams a ranking in three categories:

Current goaltending: How good is their goaltending at the NHL level right now? How good does it project to be in the near-term, which we define as the next three years? This section includes the two goalies who are expected to start the 2024-25 season, as well as anyone else in the system who can be projected to play games. The Athletic’s goaltending expert, Jesse Granger, handled this section.

Future prospects: This section ranks each team’s goaltenders in the system who’ve yet to establish themselves as full-time NHLers, with a focus on ceiling and upside. Prospect guru Scott Wheeler weighs in here.

Note that in theory, there can be some overlap between the first two sections. Yaroslav Askarov is a prospect, but will almost certainly spend meaningful time in the NHL over the next three years. Jake Oettinger is the Stars’ starter now, and at just 25 years old he’s also their future. That’s OK, because Jesse and Scott are looking at those players from two different perspectives: How good they are now (Jesse), and how good they can be and for how long at their eventual peak (Scott).

Cap and contracts: Who makes what, and for how many years? Ideally, a team will have the security of having their good goaltenders locked in at a reasonable price and term. In a hard cap league, a good player making too much for too long may be a negative asset, so contracts matter. There’s going to be some guesswork here, as some key players need new deals. For example, Igor Shesterkin hasn’t signed an extension with the Rangers yet, but that doesn’t mean we just assume that he walks as a UFA in 2025. The key is that this section is about getting value from good players for as long as possible, not simply having the lowest cap hit you can. Sean McIndoe handles this section, with cap info from Puckpedia.

For each category, teams were ranked from 1 to 32. Those scores were then weighted, with Current getting a 1.0 weight, while Future was given 0.75 to recognize the difficulty in peering too far into the future. Cap was weighted at 0.5; it’s important, but history shows us that there are ways to wiggle out of bad deals, although it may be painful.

This will be a three-part series. Today: The bottom ten.

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What was the best team in NHL history without a single Hall-of-Fame player?

Today’s time-waster is a simple one: What’s the best team in history that didn’t have a single Hall-of-Fame player on the roster?

A few of you have sent in variations of the question over the years, and it’s a good one. Nice and easy. I’m not even sure we need the traditional bullet-point ground rules.

We’ll do this by decade, more or less, going back to the first expansion. For more recent teams, we’ll obviously have to use some judgment and common sense over who might make the Hall some day. The 2017-18 Capitals don’t have a single Hall-of-Famer right now, but I have a feeling that Ovechkin guy might get in eventually, so we won’t count them. That challenge will get easier as we work back, but never completely go away, since the committee sometimes drops a decades-old selection on us, seemingly out of nowhere. But we’ll do our best, and maybe check in old pal Paul Pidutti and his Adjusted Hockey model for a sanity check when we need it.

With that in mind, let’s give this a shot. We’ll start in the 2010s and work our way back.

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Welcome to slow news summer, let's play a time-wasting roster-building game

It’s mid-July. All the best free agents have signed, all the trade talk has cooled off, the draft is in the rearview mirror, and nothing is happening. Half the hockey world has already taken off to a cottage or golf course, cell phones turned off. Welcome to the dog days of summer.

Or, as we call them around here, pretty much the best time of the year.

Yeah, it’s time to get weird. This is the time of year when my boss is on vacation and there’s no hockey news to get in the way of me torpedoing your productivity with random trivia and time-wasters.

It’s not for everyone. If you’re looking for in-depth analysis of line rushes from prospect camp, I can’t help you. And if you’re the sort of person who likes to stomp off to the comment section to grumble “Slow news day?”, let me answer you in advance: No, dummy, more like slow news month, consider having some fun with the whole sports fan thing for once in your life.

See? I just called some of my readers dummy. You can’t get away with that stuff in February when people are paying attention. Hockey summers are the best.

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NHL 2023-24 prediction contest results (or how the Devils ruined everything)

July 1 has come and gone and we’re officially into a new year of the NHL calendar, which means it’s pencils down on the 2023-24 prediction contest. Let’s see how you did.

First, the background for any newcomers out there. This was year four of the contest, in which you answer 10 seemingly simple questions about the upcoming season with as much or as little confidence as you can muster. More answers means more points, but even one wrong answer means a zero for the question, so in theory there’s a balance to be found.

This year’s contest had a little over 2,000 entries. You can find the original contest post here. We went through those initial entries to figure out what they told us about the coming season. And we had a midseason check-in to see how you were doing.

As always, while the idea here is to get the highest possible score and win, the real fun is in looking back at the entries and seeing how smart (or dumb) the wisdom of the crowd really was. With that in mind, let’s look at each of the questions, and just how “simple” they turned out to be.

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The 10 type of NHL offseasons, from "The Big Swing" to "At Least You Tried"

Did you enjoy the NHL offseason?

OK, so it’s not technically over. But it feels that way, because in one week we went from crowning a champion to draft weekend to free agency day. Now the trade talk is mostly quiet, the big boards are pretty much bare, and Pierre has left for the cottage. So… have a good summer, everyone?

Well, maybe not quite yet. There are still a few names left on the trade block, a couple of jobs still to fill, and we’ll get the usual trickle of “oh right that guy” UFA signings. But for the most part, much like your neighborhood Fourth of July party, the fireworks are already over.

So what kind of summer did your team have? Let’s take a look at the 10 types of NHL offseasons, why they happen, and what they usually lead to. Bonus points if you can figure out which current teams I was thinking of when I wrote each summary.

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The playoff prediction contest was supposed to be impossible. Then things got weird

Two months ago, I launched a new prediction contest. After a few years of running the regular season contest and watching you all fail miserably, I figured we could double our fun by adding a playoff edition.

It was a simple contest, with just one question: List as many or as few playoff teams as you’d like, in order of how many games they'd win during the postseason, from most to fewest. And I taunted you with the promise that you’d still get it wrong.

And then, a funny thing happened.

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10 lessons learned from a wild first day of NHL free agency

The initial wave of the annual free agent frenzy seems to have slowed down, so let’s take a breath and ask the big question: Class, what have we learned today?

The NHL delivered on the promise of a busy market, with names flying off the board all day long. There was plenty of movement of unrestricted free agents, several big extensions, and even a handful of trades. Let’s recap the day with ten lessons we can pull from a frantic day. That won’t be enough to cover each and every signing or even every team, but we’ll try to hit on as many as we can. And we’ll do it quickly, before something else happens and renders all of this irrelevant.

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Trades, Utah and Celine Dion: Ranking the biggest surprises from a busy NHL week

The NHL draft has ended, capping off a two-day event in Las Vegas and a busy week across the NHL.

Surprised?

OK, probably not by the existence and/or ending of the draft. But half the fun of an entry draft is the surprises it hits us with, both big and small. After all, we spend weeks making mocks and ranking prospects, and if everything just went off according to those lists, it wouldn’t be very interesting.

Let's take a moment to recalibrate, by running through some of the most and least surprising moments from the past week. We'll do this in chronological order, reaching way back into the past for our first pick...

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Which stories delivered, and which didn't, on Night One of the NHL draft

You don’t have to spend very long in Las Vegas to realize that two things are indisputably true about this place: You will either be sweating buckets or freezing to death with no in between for your entire stay, and this town knows how to sell the sizzle.

Everything here promises to be the best, coolest, most unique thing you’ve ever experienced. Any wall with even a few square feet of space will be plastered with ads for shows and events, all of which are somehow ranked #1. (By who? Nobody knows.) Every slot machine is bigger and brighter and louder than the last, every bar promises to be the top party destination in the city, and anything you decide to do will be the most fun you can possibly have. They promise.

Of course, promising is one thing. To send the customer home happy, you have to actually deliver. Still, there’s something to be said for being able to sell that sizzle. It’s something the NHL hasn’t been very good at in, well, forever. Maybe a weekend in Vegas will inspire a few of the marketing minds.

In the meantime, tonight’s Round 1 arrived with plenty of potential, with several possible storylines and unanswered questions hanging over the event. That was the sizzle. But as expected, not everything could live up to the hype. So let’s wrap up Night 1 by running through 10 stories that came into the night feeling worthy of the Vegas hype, and seeing how they actually turned out.

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Who was the worst pick of the cap era, based on the players drafted right after?

It’s time for this year’s draft week time-waster, the annual tradition in which we spend a day arguing about one of the most intriguing events on the NHL calendar. This year, let’s take a new angle on an old question: What was the worst draft pick of the cap era?

It’s a question that comes up often enough that you can probably recite the usual suspects. Nail Yakupov in 2012. Nikita Filatov in 2008. Gilbert Brule in 2005. That bum that your favorite team took instead of the stay-at-home defenseman your uncle wanted.

But are some of those names fair? Yakupov was a bust, sure, but the 2012 draft was a mess. If the Oilers had somehow had a premonition from the future and shocked us all by passing on Yakupov, who would they have taken instead? The next player picked was Ryan Murray. The next forward was Alex Galchenyuk. The fourth overall pick was Griffin Reinhart, and the Oilers are probably glad they never acquired… OK, bad example maybe, but you get the idea. In 2008, Filatov was picked ahead of Colin Wilson, Mikkel Bødker, Josh Bailey and Cody Hodgson, who all had better careers by far but weren’t exactly franchise players. Brule went just ahead of Jack Skille, Devin Setoguchi and Brian Lee.

There were better plays available later in those drafts, of course, but it hardly seems fair to say a team whiffed on a top-ten pick because they should have taken a guy who ended up going 173rd. Clearly, that player was never a realistic option. It’s easy hindsight, but it’s not real criticism.

Today, let’s look at the problem a different way, by rephrasing the question: Who was the worst pick of the cap era, judged by how good the players taken right after him turned out to be? It’s one thing to pick a bust who’s only slightly worse than the picks who followed. It’s another entirely to watch a cast of all-stars immediately go off the board.

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The Panthers' Stanley Cup should put an end to GMs’ lazy roster-building excuses

It’s over.

No, not the Stanley Cup final, although that’s over too. Congratulations to the Florida Panthers, who narrowly held off Connor McDavid and the Oilers, avoiding a historic collapse and capturing the franchise’s first championship. It caps off a three-year stretch that saw the Panthers win the 2022 Presidents’ Trophy, then follow that with back-to-back Eastern Conference championships. With a Stanley Cup banner now set to fly in Florida, it’s been a truly dominant stretch, one that’s worthy of all the praise that will be thrown its way in the days and weeks ahead.

No, what’s over is the narrative. You know the one, about how winning NHL teams have to be built. You’re familiar with all the beats. Let’s recite them together.

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Would this Panthers collapse be the worst in NHL history? Yes, and it's not close

In theory, the question is right up my alley.

If the Panthers lose Game 7 on Monday, will it be the biggest collapse in NHL history?

It’s the sort of history-based debate that I’m usually all over. In fact, when it first became apparent that the Oilers were going to make a series of this, I started thinking about how this piece could look. If you’ve been reading me over the years, you can probably picture how it would be laid out. We’d pose the question, then list a bunch of potential contenders for the honors. We’d weigh the pros and cons, putting it all in historical context, drop a few one-liners, and then arrive at a conclusion roughly 2,000 words later.

The problem is, when it comes to this Panthers’ collapse being the worst of all-time, I don’t have 2,000 words for you. I don’t need them.

I only need one: Yes. And then a few more: It’s not even close.

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Welcoming the 2024 class of inductees to the Hall of Very Good, which we made up

It’s Hockey Hall of Fame time, which you could be forgiven for not knowing because there does seem to be some other hockey stuff going on these days. But the Class of 2024 will be announced on Tuesday, no doubt sparking another round of debate over who make it, who got snubbed, and why the committee has clearly never watched a single game involving your favorite team.

You know what that means. It’s time to welcome another class to the Hall of Very Good.

We’ve been doing this for a few years now, but let’s refresh your memory on what’s about to happen. Some fans use “Hall of Very Good” as an insult, a way to devalue the career of a guy who may not quite deserve a plaque in the real thing. That’s not what we’re about here. Instead, we’re going to use this space the celebrate the players who presumably don’t have a realistic shot at induction, but were still pretty darn fun to watch in their day.

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The Contrarian: Brett Hull’s Cup-winning goal was good, and other fake arguments

The Edmonton Oilers were apparently feeling a little bit contrarian this week.

With all of hockey ready to crown the Florida Panthers, hand over the Cup and call it a season, the Oilers ruined the party on Saturday night. They finally showed up for the final, and turned what was supposed to be a coronation into a butt-kicking. In the process, they made all of us shelve our “Panthers win” takes for at least one more game, and sent the hockey world grumbling to the airport for yet another travel day.

I can respect it. I’ve been known to dabble in the whole contrarian thing myself, with takes like “Mark Messier was a great Canuck” and “Ray Bourque’s Cup win was bad, actually”. With some unexpected time to kill before Game 5, let’s break that gimmick out again.

As always, the concept is simple: You make what you think is an obviously true statement, the kind of thing that nobody could even argue with. I take the contrarian position, and make my best case. And as always, you can try to guess which of these arguments I actually mean, and which are just a case of a grumpy sportswriter instinctively going against the grain.

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One year ago, the Vegas Golden Knights were celebrating their Stanley Cup win from just a few hours earlier, and their long-suffering fans were saying goodbye to a gut-wrenching drought that had spanned six long years. And perhaps nobody was celebrating harder than Jonathan Marchessault, who’d just been named the Conn Smythe winner as playoff MVP.

Maybe more importantly, fans of the other 31 teams were testing their hockey knowledge with a “Who Didn’t He Play For?” quiz.

Yes, it’s somehow been a year and a day since we last broke out this gimmick (although there was an offshoot variation during the season to keep you sharp). That year has flown by; it feels like just yesterday we were talking about the Florida Panthers being in the Stanley Cup final. But it tells me that it’s time for another round. So let’s take our cue from Marchessault, and use this quiz to honor Conn Smythe winners.

In theory, that means this edition should be the easiest one yet, since you’d figure that most Conn Smythe winners don’t switch teams all that often. But that’s fine, because I’ve been told that you’d prefer that these things were a little more forgiving. Apparently some of you don’t bother memorizing every team Michel Petit ever played for, because you “have better things to do” and “don’t use hockey trivia to hide from our real-world problems” and “seriously, we’re worried about you, Sean”.

As always, the format is simple. I’ll give you a player and four teams, and you tell me which one he never played for. You get 16 questions in all, then scroll back up and score yourself based on this handy system.

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The 14 NHL playoff series that got us to this Final, ranked from worst to best

We’re two games into the Stanley Cup final. Which is to say, maybe halfway through.

That’s the pessimist’s version, assuming you’re not a Panthers’ fan. If you’re neutral, or close enough, your main hope at this time of year is for a classic final, the kind of seven-game masterpiece you’ll remember fondly years or even decades down the road. We may still get that, although with the Oilers down 2-0 and struggling to find offense, our hopes are dwindling.

We’ll get a better sense of how this series will shape up tomorrow night. But as we wait, let’s take a look back at all the earlier series that got us here. It’s time to rank the path to the 2024 final, as we count down the 14 series that led us to this matchup, from worst to best.

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The fatal flaws of 6 Canadian Cup losers (and why they don't apply to the Oilers)

I think the Oilers are going to do it.

I think they’re winning the Stanley Cup this year, for all the reasons I laid out in that debate with Sean Gentille last week. I’d obviously feel better about that prediction if they’d been able to win Game 1, but they dominated enough stretches in the loss that I still say they do it. And no, that has nothing to do with them being Canada’s team, because that’s not a thing. I just think this is their year.

But as much as we might want to hand-wave it away, the 31-year Canadian drought does hang over this series, especially with six of the country’s teams making the final since 1993 only to lose. So today, I’m going to try to reassure myself that I’ve made the right pick by looking back at those six Canadian near-misses. We’re going to identify the Canadian final loser’s fatal flaw, and then make sure that it doesn’t apply to this year’s Oilers.

We’ll do this in order of difficulty, starting with the easiest team to ignore and ending with the comparisons that worry me a bit. And that means we begin our most recent finals loser…

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McIndoe vs. Gentille: Who wins the Cup?

McIndoe: Other Sean, we meet again. They’ve asked us to debate our winner picks for this year’s Stanley Cup final. An American and a Canadian, which some years would feel cliched. But this year, I suppose it’s appropriate, given we’ve got the Edmonton Oilers trying to end Canada’s 31-year Cup drought, a length of time that feels mathematically impossible. Standing in their way, the dastardly Florida Panthers, a team that only a genuinely terrible person could support. Who you got?

Gentille: Panthers in six, baby. I’ve tried to suss out why exactly I feel that way — am I pro-American? Am I anti-Canadian? Have three decades in Pittsburgh made me reflexively pick against anyone who might threaten Sidney Crosby's spot on Hockey Rushmore? The answer is “Yes.”  Now if you’ll excuse me, I have a shopping cart to leave in the middle of a parking lot.

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Canada vs. USA: Two fans forced to watch each country’s worst 2024 NHL playoff ads

Back in the summer of 2020, I had a terrible idea that felt like a good idea, which wasn’t exactly a unique experience at the time. But while you were all experimenting with Tik Tok dances and sourdough starters, I decided it would be fun to set up an international exchange of terrible playoff commercials.

You know the kind – the ones that seem to show up every single ad break, tormenting you until you know every word, leading to you at least casually consider finding out who worked on it and paying them a visit. I knew there were some awful Canadian ads, I figured there were probably plenty happening south of the border, and I thought that if we held an exchange then a good time would be held by all.

Then Sean Gentille made me watch Tara Tara Look At Her Go, and I’ve never fully recovered.

I hit back with the Sportsnet Life Coach in 2021, and after a year off, we were back last year with a heart like a truck. But we were worried, because after that first year, the ads hadn’t been quite as bad. They were maybe even getting better. We wondered if we’d have to abandon the gimmick, because the advertising industry had stopped producing annoying garbage.

Well, let’s just say our concerns were addressed this year. We’ll get to that.

But first, let’s take a peek behind the curtain and see what this year’s game plan looked like for both sides.

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Oilers or Panthers? A Stanley Cup Final rooting guide for the 30 other fan bases

The Stanley Cup final matchup is set, and it’s a good one. In one corner, the Florida Panthers, back for the second year in a row with a chance to avenge last year’s loss and finally capture the first championship in franchise history. In the other, the Edmonton Oilers, featuring the best player in the world and a dynamic supporting cast, and looking to bring the Cup back to Canada for the first time since 1993. It’s quite possibly the two best teams in the league, and certainly two of the most exciting. The whole thing should be pretty great.

So who you got?

You’ve probably already made up your mind, which is completely fine. But sometimes, you’re not sure, and could use a nudge. That’s where I come in, with my annual rooting guide to the final for the other 30 fan bases. We’ll look at all the factors in play, and come up with a suggestion for which team you fence-sitters could choose.

This year brings an interesting dynamic, as the Panthers are the first losing finalist to return the next year since the Penguins in 2009. Last year, when they were facing the Golden Knights, they were my recommended pick for 18 of the 30 other fan bases. But this year, with a new opponent and a subtle season-long heel turn, can they maintain that level of support? Let’s find out…

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Remembering the most unlikely overtime hero in each NHL team's history

Ah, playoff overtime. It’s the best. Just pure adrenaline and/or terror, depending on your perspective, a universal experience so good that it inspired one of history three or four good tweets.

And then it ends. That’s part of the fun, especially if it’s a great goal scored by a worthy superstar. So far this year, we’ve had winners from big names like David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin and Connor McDavid. We’re used to seeing that, with some of the most famous overtime goals in NHL history were scored by superstars like Bobby Orr, Brett Hull, Steve Yzerman and Wayne Gretzky.

Then again, not everyone gets to experience the thrill of being an overtime hero. Mario Lemieux never had a sudden death playoff goal. Neither did Gordie Howe, or Marcel Dionne, or Mark Messier, or (so far) Alexander Ovechkin.

That’s what makes it so beautiful when somebody you wouldn’t expect gets to join the club that Super Mario and Mr. Hockey never could. Today, let’s celebrate a few of those guys with a simple question: Who was the most unlikely overtime goal scorer in each team’s history?

Let’s remember some guys, who also happened to be OT heroes.

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Who’s the frontrunner for the Conned Smythe, for worst trade with a Cup contender?

With just four teams left, the battle for the Conned Smythe Award is really heating up.

Yes, that’s the “Conned” Smythe, not to be confused with the far less prestigious Conn Smythe for playoff MVP. The Conned Smythe is a team award. Specifically, it goes to the team that made the dumbest trade with the biggest impact on the Stanley Cup winner. That trade could have been recent or a decade ago, but it had to have directly delivered a player who’s about to help the team win it all. (Deals for future picks and non-trade transactions are ineligible, a rule we passed because Wild fans were already sick of hearing about the Brayden Point thing.)

I’m not sure any of the four remaining teams can give us as many options as last year’s champs could, but there are some intriguing scenarios in play that would fit well with history’s other winners. I’ve got ten teams that are in contention for the honors, and we’ll count them down from weakest to strongest case.

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The 2024 NHL playoffs all-disappointment team: Mitch Marner, Elias Pettersson, more

We’ve made it to the conference finals, with four teams left and a dozen playoff losers already sulking on the sidelines. It’s time to let them all know that we’re not mad, just disappointed.

Well, that’s not completely true – we’re also mad, about everything, all the time, because that seems to be how the league likes it. But today, we’re going to focus on the second half of the equation, as we build out a 21-man roster of playoff disappointments.

As always, we’ll have a few ground rules. We’ll place a limit of two players per team, because I know you guys get mad when I write a piece that’s all about the Maple Leafs. And we’ll have a mandatory one-player-per-team rule, including the four that are still active. That’s always tricky, since it means there’s a good chance that somebody we call a bust will have a hat trick and the OT winner in their next game. Hey, not guts, no glory. (Yes, I do consider sitting on my couch and calling professional athletes disappointments to be a form of glory, thanks for checking.)

We’ll build from the net out, always a crowded field at this time of year, which is why we give ourselves a third slot. But I’m not sure anyone will disagree with our first pick…

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The playoffs’ final four teams: Lessons to learn (and what to avoid)

We’re down to four teams in the NHL playoffs, which means it’s time for the copycats to get to work.

We’re constantly told that this is a copycat league, one where teams look to the contenders to see what’s working, then steal that plan. Plagiarism for the win, or at least the .500 record. Yesterday, Shayna had some suggestions for what teams can learn from this year's success stories.

From a fan's perspective, that’s all well and good, as long as teams are borrowing the right ideas. That’s where we come in, with our annual attempt to guide the conversation in the right direction. As fans, we don’t mind a little bit of copying as long as it’s the fun ideas that are being stolen. What we don’t want is for teams to learn lessons that make this league more boring.

So today, we’ll continue our annual tradition of looking for three fun lessons from each of the remaining teams. And we’ll also find one that isn’t as much fun, and try to shoot it down early. We can’t stop NHL teams from copying off each other’s papers, but we can at least try to steer them in a more fan-friendly direction.

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Revisiting the good, bad and awful from my oddly specific 2023-24 NHL predictions

Every year, right before the season starts, I get to write one of my favorite columns of the year: My oddly specific predictions. That’s the piece where I try to predict what will happen with alarming and frankly unnecessary specificity. I lay out one call for every team, some of you take notes and others just laugh at me, and a good time is had by all.

Do I ever get any right? Well, about that…

Somewhat surprisingly, I’ve had a few hits over the years. Not a ton, but at least enough that I can still show my face at the end of the year. Back in 2021, I called a season-opening two-goal game for a guy coming off a season where he’d had only one goal all year. In last year’s predictions, I told you the specific game that would see the Kings get their only misconduct of the year. And nothing will ever top my 2022 column, in which I predicted that a guy with zero career regular season goals would finally get his very first, then told you the exact game he’d do it in.

Those were all cool. Let’s not talk about the roughly 100 other predictions from those years.

As always, I’ll hold myself accountable by going through each and every prediction I made in this year’s column, which you can go back and read here. Will it be pretty? No. But will it be an embarrassing oh-fer? Only one way to find out…

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Matt Duchene's OT controversy was a message from the hockey gods to ditch replay

The symmetry was almost perfect.

In the history of the NHL’s foray into the world of replay review, there are two moments that stand out as crucial landmarks, the key signposts that pointed us towards where we wound up. The most recent came in 2013, when Colorado center Matt Duchene scored a goal despite being roughly a mile offside.

The play is, to this day, widely misunderstood. The linesman didn’t somehow miss the fact that Duchene was offside; rather, he thought that the Predators had directed the puck back into their own zone, which would negate an offside call. But the optics were terrible. Everything about the play looked wrong, up to and including Duchene’s muted celebration. He knew he’d gotten away with one, as did everyone watching. And eventualy, the confusion and frustration of such an obvious missed call coalesced around a seemingly easy solution: Why don’t we have replay review for these plays?

And now we do, and it’s awful, but hold that thought. Because for the other key moment, we have to go back even further. Now it’s the 1999 Stanley Cup final, and we’re in triple-overtime of Game 6. With the Sabres fighting to extend the series, Dallas star Brett Hull collects a rebound and scores the Cup winner.

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Bruins-Panthers is an all-time great hate-watch series and I hope it never ends

The second-round series between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers is, to a neutral observer, a puzzle without any hope of a satisfying solution, the sort of matchup that leaves fans of every other team exhausted and slumped over with their eyes rolled so far back into their own head that they can see into the past, where the only outcome that would feel like a win would be for Gary Bettman to announce the series over, declare both teams the loser, suspend everyone involved, and fold both franchises.

That's intended as a compliment, by the way.

No really, it is. An NHL postseason needs a lot of things to be truly great – an underdog, a juggernaut, a few OGWACs, and as much overtime as possible. But it also needs a great series between two teams that you can’t stand, because there’s nothing quite like a good old-fashioned hate-watch.

This year, the hockey gods have delivered. Because man, this series, right?

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The one simple rule that explains goaltending in the NHL playoffs

Welcome to the NHL playoffs, where it’s all about goaltending.

It really is that simple, right? Sure, we like to pile on the narratives, arguing about which rosters have the most talent or experience or heart, sprinkling in subplots about who knows how to win or who wants it more. But most of the time, that’s just noise, and deep down we know it.

Want to know who’s going to win a playoff series? Figure out who’s going to get the better goaltending. There’s your winner.

Of course, that leads to an obvious follow-up: How do we know who’s actually going to get that better goaltending?

That’s a tougher question, but it’s one that shouldn’t be all that difficult to figure out. After all, we’re roughly four weeks into the postseason, meaning the 16 playoff teams have been handing the answer to us, one game at a time. If you’re a fan, all you have to do is observe. The rule reveals itself as you go.

This stuff just isn’t that complicated.

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Team Big Brother vs. Team Little Brother: Who wins a battle between NHL stars?

Yesterday was Mother’s Day, which was hopefully a pleasant day for you and your family and/or explains why your wife seems like she's mad at you today. It also seems like as good a day as any to honor all those hockey moms out there by tackling a simple question sent in by a reader.

Pekka L. wants to know: Who’d win, a team made up of NHL big brothers, or little brothers?

Sounds fun. But first, a few ground rules™:

- We’re building 21-man rosters, with four lines of forwards, three defense pairings and three goalies. We’ll try to slot in wingers with centers, but won’t get too hung up on position.

- To be eligible, a player must have a brother who played in the NHL for at least 100 games.

- I’m only going back to the Original Six era, because otherwise we wind up with a bunch of guys that a lot of you have never heard of. Apologies to the Cooks, Conachers and Cleghorns.

- In cases where three or more brothers all played in the NHL, the middle children will be ignored, which they should be used to.

You may have noticed that 100-game limit that we slipped in there. That takes out some big names like Wayne Gretzky (whose brother Brent played only 13 games), Gordie Howe (whose brother Vic played 33) and Patrick Roy (whose brother Stephane played 12). Maybe that feels arbitrary, or like it violates the spirit of the thing. But here’s the deal: If we don’t put that limit in, we’re not going to have a contest. Team Big Brother would absolutely destroy Team Little Brother. It wouldn’t be a contest. There are just a ton of NHL stars who had younger brothers show up for a cup of coffee and then disappear.

Why? I have two theories. The first is that older siblings are clearly superior to their coddled, snot-nosed little wannabes. But more importantly, I think there’s some clear cause-and-effect here, with teams over-drafting or signing younger brothers of star players in hopes that genetics will kick in. If you see a guy like Sergei Fedorov or Paul Kariya tearing up the league, why not roll the dice on their kid brother? It works sometimes, usually it doesn’t, and it screws up our contest if we don’t account for it. So yeah, a 100-game limit is in play.

This will be fun, because athlete brothers always enjoy a spirit of friendly competition and oh no it’s started already. Let’s build from the net out and see where this goes

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Who to trade, who to fire, and is there any hope? A "Leafs lose" DGB mailbag

It’s the second round of the playoffs, so it must be time for our annual “the Leafs were just eliminated” mailbag. This should be a million laughs, I can’t wait.

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and style.

Based on the one-way parasocial relationship between us as podcaster/listener, I hope you don't find it weird that my only real question is "are you okay?" – Danny B.

I am, thanks. Honestly, this one barely stung at all.

I once wrote a column about how difficult this version of the Leafs is to root for, and that was almost two full seasons ago. It’s fair to say it hasn’t got any easier. This is a talented group, but it’s not an especially likable one, especially when the story always ends the same way.

So yeah, my reaction to Game 7 was a lot closer to a shrug than a tantrum. (And if you don’t believe me, here’s Ian Mendes opening Monday’s podcast with a description of what it was like to watch the game with me.)

Honestly, this is pretty easily the least disappointment I’ve ever felt after a Leafs playoff loss, which is maybe not a great sign. And I’m guessing I’m not the only one, which is worse.

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“We can and we will.” A history of how the Maple Leafs got here, in 12 quotes

“Obviously we’re looked upon as… you know, kind of gods here to be honest.” – Mitch Marner, May 2024

Did you enjoy the Maple Leafs’ final media day of the season, at least for players and coaches? I sure did. Nothing quite like being reminded over and over, by just about every player on the team, that they’re “close”. Always close, with these guys. Close to winning something, close to each other, close to making you throw your remote through the TV screen. So close!

This year, we got a memorable bonus quote from the current whipping boy, who decided this would be a good week to compare the players to deities. He’s not even wrong. The Toronto Maple Leafs players really are gods, in their own way. Then again, so was Oizys.

For the record, I don't think Marner's "gods" quote was especially controversial; I think we can all appreciate what he was going for, even if he might have preferred to have it come out a bit differently. And if Marner's sound bite was a bit awkward, at least it fit with a larger trend in Leafs land, where the team has spent the last few years leaving quote-based sign posts along to the road to wherever this is that they’ve wound up.

So today, as we wait for the implosion to truly start, let’s remember 12 sound bites that this team offered up during the Brendan Shanahan era, and how they ultimately add up to explain the way it all fell apart.

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Was David Pastrnak fighting Matthew Tkachuk stupid or awesome? Yes.

Late in the third period of a game that his team was losing badly, David Pastrnak figured he’d had enough.

The Florida Panthers were pouring it on, having just scored their sixth goal of the night. They were going to win Game 2 and even the series. They were letting the Boston Bruins know about it too, with Matthew Tkachuk choosing the moment to show off his formidable trash-talking skills.

At some point, Pastrnak decided he’d handle it according to whatever version of hockey’s fabled Code was in effect in the moment. And that meant hand-to-hand combat.

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Draft lottery power rankings: Who needs it, who deserves it, who is it rigged for?

We’re just a few hours from the moment when a barrel full of ping pong balls will determine the future of the NHL. Yes, there are better ways to determine a draft order, and even more entertaining options. But there’s something to be said for the simplicity of a lottery, and the dramatic tension of watching those cards flip over in real time.

It’s fair to say that hockey fans have learned to love lottery day… right up until they don’t.

That’s the gamble we’re all taking tonight. Whether your team is involved or not, you have your own ideas about who you’re rooting for or against, and the results may or may not match those hopes. By the end of the night, some fan base will be shopping for Macklin Celebrini jerseys, while others will be screaming about how unfair the whole thing is.

For now, let’s get calibrated with our annual draft lottery power rankings, in which we look at things from a few different angles.

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The Maple Leafs have come back. Now, for once, it's time to finally finish the job

With the obituaries already written and the pink slips all printed, the Toronto Maple Leafs have flipped the script. After dropping three of the first four games and losing their best player in the process, the Leafs have gutted out a pair of 2-1 wins to force the Bruins into a nightmare Game 7.

Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be.

The conventional wisdom is that this version of the Leafs team disappears when the going gets tough. But the conventional wisdom is wrong.

Never let facts get in the way of a narrative, I suppose, but let’s think back to some times during the Shanahan era when this Leafs team had their backs against the wall.

In 2018, against these same Bruins, a young Leafs team fell behind 3-1 in the series, outclassed and outscored 15-5 in the losses. They fought back, winning two straight to force a Game 7 back in Boston, then took a lead into the third period.

In 2020 against the Blue Jackets, they were facing elimination and trailing 3-0 with four minutes left. That’s as close to being done as you can get in the tight-checking NHL, but the Leafs didn’t quit, scoring three quick goals to force overtime, where Auston Matthews won it to force a deciding game.

In 2021 against Montreal, they watched their captain suffer a horrifying injury early in Game 1, then lost an understandably low-energy game. Rather than look shaken, they took over the series, winning three straight games and making the Habs look overmatched.

In 2022 against Tampa Bay, they played their worst game of the series in Game 4, losing an embarrassing 7-3 laugher that seemed set to tilt the series. They trailed heading into the third period of Game 5, but rallied back to win, taking a 3-2 series lead.

Even last year against Florida, trailing the series 3-0 and forced to give an inexperienced rookie his first career playoff start in a must-win, the Leafs played their best game of the series, grinding out a 2-1 road win to stay live.

The patten has been clear. Time and again, these Maple Leafs are counted out. And time and again, they defy expectations. They get back up off the mat. They look like a different team.

And then, well, you know what happens next.

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The 20 stages of an NHL playoff controversy

It’s the NHL playoffs. Do you know where your controversies are?

No, really, where are they? We’re most of the way through the first round, and we haven’t really seen anything crazy yet. Sure, we’ve had another round of the Matt Rempe discourse, and a distinct kicking motion debate, and the usual goalie interference questions, and the refs are all clearly out to get your favorite team. But compared to previous years, the NHL has made it through the first few weeks relatively unscathed when it comes to big-time controversy.

What does it mean? Probably that the hockey gods have something awful lined up for us. Probably soon. We’d better prepare.

NHL playoff controversies are all unique, like precious little snowflakes, although they typically fall into a handful of categories. There’s the (maybe) dirty hit. There’s the (maybe) missed call. There’s the (maybe) violation of The Code, which may also involve a dirty hit on which there’s a missed call.

One way or another, something is on the way, and we’re all going to be mad at each other about it. For now, we may as well prepare. So let’s get ready for the inevitable, with a quick reminder of the 20 stages of an NHL playoff controversy.

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The 25 best potential Stanley Cup final matchups, based purely on narratives

We’re halfway into the first round of the playoffs, and with only one team eliminated, almost all the potential Stanley Cup final matchups are still in play. Some of those would be really good, just based on the talent of the teams involved. Something like Oilers vs. Panthers, or Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes, or Rangers vs. Stars? Yes please.

But there’s more to a great final matchup that the quality of the teams and players involved. In fact, if you’re a member of the hockey media, there’s something far more important: A good narrative.

Yes, us ink-stained wretches love a good narrative. And you probably do too, because even if it you don’t need to churn out content, it can be plenty of fun to see a storyline matchup fall into place.

Do these two teams have any sort of shared history? Maybe a major star who spent time with both teams? A big trade between them at some point? A common coach or GM? Maybe even a previous meeting in the final? If so, a good matchup can become great.

And as luck would have it, there are plenty of those matchups in play. So today, before any more teams get knocked out, let’s count down 25 possible Stanley Cup finals that would make my job easier for a fascinating narrative.

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Was a crucial Predators' goal in Game 4 kicked in? Yes, but...

Tonight’s Game 4 between the Predators and Canucks in Nashville featured a controversial key moment. The Predators third goal, which came early in the third period, has led to confusion over whether it should have counted.

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A radical theory on why the Leafs are losing another series: The Bruins are better

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. It’s the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t show up on time, they briefly got going with an offensive outburst, and then came the stupid penalties and the defensive miscues and the non-existent big save when it was needed most. Now they’re embarrassed, in disarray and looking over their shoulders at ghosts.

OK, I’ll admit you have heard it before, from me, because that’s almost exactly how I started my column after Game 1 of last year’s a postseason, a 7-2 loss in front of the same fans who just booed them off the ice. So yes, you’ve heard it, from me and everyone else, in some for or another. But I don’t need you to stop me this time, because I’m stopping myself. For one night at least, after a humiliating home loss to the Bruins that put them down 3-1 in the series, I’m going to do the opposite of what you might expect. I’m hitting pause on all those Maple Leafs narratives we’ve all run into the ground over the last few years.

You know the ones: The Leafs don’t want it bad enough. The not-so-young-anymore core is overpaid and entitled. The leaders and the coaches don’t have the right message, and if they do then nobody’s listening. You need all-star numbers in January, they’ve got you covered, but if you need the sort of heart-and-soul shift that can tilt a series, look elsewhere. No killer instinct. They don’t show up, they don’t start on time, and they don’t want any part of the big kid hockey that gets played in the postseason.

Sure. Some of that could be true. Maybe even all of it.

But maybe it doesn’t matter, at least not this time. Maybe the Bruins are just better.

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Which player had the single worst playoff game in NHL history?

Who had the worst playoff game ever?

I don’t know. You don’t either. I’m not sure the question even has an answer, because “worst game” is such a subjective category. We’re looking for performances here – i.e. not factoring in injury or tragedy, because come on – but even that’s still pretty broad.

But if I know hockey fans, I know there’s not much we love more than reliving terrible games. So as we make our way to the midpoint of the first round, let’s look back and see if we can conjure up some miserable memories while hoping your favorite team doesn’t add anyone to the list in the coming days and weeks.

Let’s remember some sighs.

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"Oh... baby!" Remembering 10 of Bob Cole's most legendary calls

The hockey world lost its voice this week, with the passing of legendary CBC play-by-play announcer Bob Cole.

Cole passed away on Wednesday, the CBC announced this afternoon. He was 90 years old. He’d been the voice of Hockey Night in Canada for nearly 50 years, appearing on television from 1973 until his retirement in 2019.

Along the way, he was there to call a long list of memorable moments. Other moments became memorable because of Cole’s call, as an ordinary play would be elevated into something special by his classic delivery. Cole’s signature style blended enthusiasm and energy with simplicity; he could do more to capture a moment by simply repeating a player’s name than most broadcasters can do in a rehearsed soliloquy.

In memory of a legend, let's enjoy ten of Cole’s classic calls.

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Mammoth? Yetis? Ranking 8 possible names for NHL’s Utah team

The NHL will be in Utah beginning next season. But the Salt Lake City-based team still needs a name.

We’ve seen a flurry of possibilities hit the internet since the Arizona Coyotes were officially sold to Qualtrics owner Ryan Smith and wife Ashley last week. Many have stemmed from recent trademark applications to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office by Uyte LLC, based in Delaware.

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Brent Burns, Ryan Suter or Zach Parise? It's the 2024 OGWAC rankings

It’s OGWAC time again, the chance to embrace the most beloved of postseason tropes: the Old Guy Without a Cup, that grizzled veteran who enters the postseason still desperately seeking his first ring.

Usually, it ends badly, and we toss another year onto the pile. But every now and then an OGWAC gets the ultimate ending, one that usually involves the first Cup handoff and more than a few tears. Think Ray Bourque, Teemu Selanne or Lanny McDonald. It’s one of the best springtime stories to watch unfold. And every year at this time, we try to figure out who could be next, with our annual OGWAC rankings.

A reminder of the criteria: A player is considered “old” if they’ve been in the league for at least 10 seasons and will be at least 33 when the Cup is awarded. Of course, the older the better for OGWAC purposes, and we also prefer players who are healthy and contributing to their team’s run. We’ll consider candidates from all 16 playoff teams, but prefer players from teams that are considered legitimate contenders. And we’ll award some bonus points for players who’ve endured especially agonizing near-misses at some point in their career.

Oh, one more thing: We’re instituting a “three OGWACs per team” rule this year, mainly because one team seems to be trying to collect them all. Can you really be a great OGWAC story if you’re only going to be the fifth guy on your team to get the Cup passed to them? Probably, but we want to give everyone a chance, so three is our max.

Last year was the rare season where the Stanley Cup-winning team didn’t have a single OGWAC on the roster, meaning nobody dropped off the eligibility list. That said, we did lose some favorites to retirement, including Paul Stastny, Alex Edler and Wayne Simmonds. We’re also missing a few guys who didn’t make this year’s playoffs, including Mats Zuccarello and Nick Foligno, as well as an injured Blake Wheeler. So some spots have opened up on our list.

We’ve got 20 names for you, as we work our way from the fringe candidates to the year’s best OGWAC.

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Now or never? The 2024 NHL playoff pressure rankings for all 16 teams

Welcome to the annual pressure rankings, where most years we run through all 16 playoff teams to figure out which one is under the most pressure to win it all.

I say “most years”, because last year we broke from tradition. In those 2023 rankings, we only bothered to do 15 teams, because one team was so clearly ahead of everyone else that we didn’t even need to bother. That team was the Maple Leafs, and we just left them off the list entirely, if only so everyone else would have a chance and we didn’t have to build up to an obvious reveal with zero suspense.

Should we do that again this year? I’m not sure. On the one hand, that Leafs team did finally win a round, snapping a streak of misery that had come to define the era. The positive vibes didn’t last long, but beating the Lightning did feel like a quick flip of the pressure-relief valve in Toronto, one that kept the whole thing from blowing up. On the other hand, it’s still Toronto, and with a new boss in town who might not be as patient as the previous regime, you could argue that the Leafs are under just as much pressure this year as last, and maybe more.

I’m not sure, so I’m making the call: The Leafs are back on the list. We’ll find out where.

 

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