Thursday, September 10, 2009

Accurate NHL predictions: Hard, but not impossible.

There's been some confusion over my recent post about NHL predictions that I'd like to clarify. While I argued that the endless predictions by so-called experts were generally pointless and almost always laughably wrong, I wasn't trying to imply that hockey predictions are never accurate.

In fact, some experts really do seem able to predict the future with an almost creepy degree of accuracy. It's rare, yes, but it does happen.

Here are three examples, chosen completely at random.

Source: Behind the scenes: the Leafs deadline day war room (March 2009)
Prediction: "A confused Pavel Kubina phones to ask why the guy in charge putting together the Atlanta Thrashers 2009 media guide just showed up to take his picture."
Reality: Four months later, Pavel Kubina is traded to the Atlanta Thrashers.

Source: 10 Random Leafs predictions (October 2008)
Prediction: "...this year, Blake looks sharp. Whether he's come to grips with his medical issues or just decided to refocus after a tough year he's looked good in the pre-season. Here's betting that he puts together a decent year -- let's say 25 goals."
Reality: Jason Blake puts together a decent year, and scores 25 goals.

Source: Five games in... (October 2008)
Prediction: "Dominic Moore is playing so well that I'm going to give him a new nickname: Dominic 'Second Round Pick at the 2009 Deadline' Moore."
Reality: Six months later, Moore is traded for a second round pick at the 2009 deadline.

So as you can see, it's not impossible to make amazingly accurate predictions. It's just that you need to be really, really smart. And witty. And also handsome.


  1. you made this post unnecessarily good, as is your wont

  2. Got any predictions for the coming season DGB? I'll say Kessel is a leaf before October and then proceeds to make the games between the bruins and leafs a lot more interesting. As if the hab games weren't enough.

  3. Yeah, more interesting because we'll finally get to see Chara hit a guy who only has one nut.

  4. Got any predictions for the coming season DGB?

    Probably. In fact, my guess is I'll make a few dozen, and then come back next year to highlight the one or two I got right.


  5. I was actually wondering if you were going to comment on these predictions at any point, I'm glad you did.

    By the way, if you didn't notice already Lauren responded to your NHL 09 post...though she was months late to the party.

    Good work DGB.

  6. Thank God your prediction about Damian Cox fondling his own nipples didn't come true.