Hockey’s bare-knuckles legacy and whether fighting will likely always be a part of the NHL

In the sport’s earliest days, before the NHL even existed, hockey was known for outbursts of violence — not just fights, but stick-swinging and outright assaults, sometimes involving fans or officials. Fighting has always been a part of hockey but its place in the game has evolved, with marked shifts in how (and how often) hand-to-hand combat is featured. And not everyone agrees on what those fights mean, or why they’re part of the sport’s legacy at all.

Even a century ago, debates raged over whether hockey would need to clean up its act to find a wider audience. In the Original Six era, there were essentially no enforcers — everyone fought, and stars like Gordie Howe were largely expected to protect themselves. With only six teams and just over 100 jobs available, there was no room on the roster for one-note fighters.

But then came the 1967 expansion, which doubled the size of the NHL. More expansion followed, and the WHA arrived soon after, pushing the number of big-league teams into the dozens. And as that shift was happening, one team emerged as the most influential group in the modern history of NHL fighting.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Grab Bag: Draft day strategy, a Gary Bettman proposal and Brian Burke tells a story about blackmail

In the Friday Grab Bag:
- My spies found out what some teams are up to heading into tonight's draft
- An idea for how Gary Bettman could handle a hostile crowd
- An obscure Canucks first-round pick
- The week's three comedy stars
- And a YouTube breakdown of Brian Burke running a draft and telling a story about being blackmailed by Bobby Clarke

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Seven reasons why the Blues are definitely winning tonight (and also seven why the Bruins are)

We’re hours away from the first Game 7 of a Stanley Cup final in eight years. Are you pumped? I’m a little pumped. This is going to be fun.

So who’s going to win? I have no idea. Really, none at all. I could pretend that I do, but anyone who’s been following my predictions so far won’t be buying it for a second. And can you blame me? The 2019 playoffs have been total chaos. Anyone who tells you that they’ve got it all figured out now, with one game to go, is full of it. I’m not even going to try, because I’ve been trying to predict Game 7s for decades now and I’ve only ever been right once.

So no, I’m not going to be right. But could I get you to settle for half-right? I can come up with seven reasons why the Bruins are definitely going to win Game 7. I can also come up with seven more why the Blues are an absolute lock. If you’re an optimist, pick the team you like best and only read their entries. If you prefer feeling sick heading into a big game, only read the other team. Read all of them, and come away feeling just as confused as when you started. Or just wait until tomorrow, read the entries of the team that won, and then head to the comments to call me a genius.

Your call. There are no wrong answers here. Well, there are – seven out of 14, to be exact. But that’s a better batting average than I normally have, so let’s get to them.

The Bruins will win because: The first line is finally waking up.

The Patrice Bergeron/Brad Marchand/David Pastrnak line – and no, we’re not calling them the Perfection Line, knock that off – has been hit-and-miss for a lot of the postseason. They were broken up against Toronto, reunited, and certainly had their moments. But they never really rolled for long stretches the way we’ve seen in the past. It’s a credit to the rest of the Bruins forwards that they had the depth to keep winning in spite of their top line struggling.

For most of the final, it’s been the same story, with Brayden Schenn’s line winning the matchup. The Bergeron line’s struggles have been so noticeable that there’s been plenty of speculation that some or all of them may be playing through serious injuries.

But on Sunday, for the first time in the series, the Bergeron line looked dominant, while Schenn’s looked outclassed. That’s just about the best news you could get as a Bruins fan. Maybe they’ve made an adjustment, or maybe they’re healthy again, or maybe they’re just heating up. You don’t really care about the why right now. You just know that if the top line can dominate, every other matchup falls into place really nicely.

The Blues will win because: The stats tell us that Jordan Binnington can’t lose in this situation.

We’ve heard about it all postseason. Overall, Binnington’s playoff numbers aren’t all that great, and he’s had a few games in this series alone where he’s looked very ordinary. But after a loss, he gains some sort of weird superpowers where he becomes unbeatable.

In the playoffs, he’s 7-2 with a 1.83 GAA after a loss, which plays into the narrative that the kid has ice in his veins. And it is a narrative to some extent – every goalie who makes it deep into the playoffs has a good record after a loss, because the ones that don’t get eliminated early. But sometimes even a narrative can have value as long as everyone believes it. Under normal circumstances, a team heading into Game 7 with a young goalie who just got shelled in Game 6 might be worried. The Blues don’t have to be.

The Bruins will win because: The stats also tell us that Tuukka Rask can’t lose in this situation.

Wait, did you say Binnington is a 1.83 GAA in these types of games? Rask has that beat.

Tuukka Rask in an elimination game this postseason: 3-0, 1.33 GAA, .953 save pct (82 saves, 86 shots). Four goals allowed in 179.81 minutes.

— Emily Kaplan (@emilymkaplan) June 10, 2019

Can both goalies be unbeatable in the same game? Huh. We may be here a while.

But while we’re on the subject of goaltending, let’s point out that Rask has been the better of the two, both in the series and in the playoffs. I’m not sure I’m willing to give him the Conn Smythe even in a losing cause, but there’s a case to be made. He’s been that good. The Blues have already survived having one goaltender stand on his head in a Game 7 against them, but I don’t like their odds if it happens again.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Remembering Brian Burke's ridiculous trading record

Monday is an important anniversary in the evolution of this Maple Leafs team, although we shouldn’t expect any press releases or pregame ceremonies. Instead, the team will let the date quietly slip by, without mentioning that it marks four years since Brian Burke’s reign as general manager came to an end.

Burke’s firing, announced shortly after the end of the 2012-13 lockout, came as a surprise. It’s rare to see a GM stay on the job throughout an offseason, only to be dismissed days before opening night. It eventually became clear that Burke’s relationship (or lack thereof) with new ownership had been the factor that sealed his fate.

Burke’s Toronto tenure was picked apart in the days after the firing, and in the years since. No doubt they will be again in the days to come. In short, Burke was a failure as Leafs’ GM. He drafted poorly. He mismanaged the cap, especially when it came to free agency. He refused to take advantage of various CBA loopholes that seemed tailor-made for big-money teams like Toronto. And he consistently misjudged his own roster, always believing he was almost there, as if we’d all wake up one morning and realize that what looked like a last place team was actually a contender.

So yes, Burke deserved the criticism, just as he deserved to be fired. All of that was fair. All of it was true.

But all of that also makes it easy to forget one other key trait of the Brian Burke years: When it came to trading, the man was freaking brilliant.

Not “good” or “above average”. He was ridiculous. During his time in Toronto, he put together one of the best trading records in the entire league.

That mattered. And it’s worth remembering today, as the league plods through an era where few teams use trades to build their roster, including the current iteration of the Leafs. While it’s still relatively early in the Lou Lamoriello era, the team has only made three deals of any real significance – Phil Kessel to Pittsburgh, Dion Phaneuf to Ottawa and Frederik Andersen from Anaheim.

That’s not a lot, but it’s three more than some teams have made. That’s the way it works in today’s NHL, where trading is a dying art. It’s too hard, we’re told. The salary cap is too complicated, we’re reminded. You just can’t make trades anymore, whines a generation of risk-averse GMs.

Bullshit, replied Brian Burke. Hand me the phone.

>> Read the full post at TheAthletic

Other NHL brother acts

The Courtnall brothers persevered and made the
NHL despite growing up in a town with no barbers.

The weekend's NHL draft unexpectedly turned into a family reunion, thanks to a pair of high-profile players being traded to the teams that already employ their brothers. The Penguins made the first move on Friday, dealing Jordan Staal to the Hurricanes where he'll team up with his brother Eric. The Maple Leafs followed suit on Saturday, finally pulling the trigger on a long-rumored trade that made Luke Schenn a teammate of brother Brayden on the Philadelphia Flyers.

But while it was an interesting quirk to have both deals made within 24 hours of each other, it's not all that unusual to see brothers sharing the spotlight in the NHL. From the Richards to the Espositos to the Sedins, the league has a long history of siblings sharing the ice as both teammates and opponents.

Here's a look at some of the other NHL brother acts that have played together or otherwise crossed paths during their careers.

Rich and Ron Sutter - Became the first set of identical twins to suit up for the same NHL team during the 1983-84 season in Philadelphia, marking the only time that Flyer opponents were able to see double without first getting sucker punched off the opening faceoff.

Rob and Scott Niedermayer - Won a Stanley Cup together in Anaheim in 2007 while establishing themselves as prototypical Brian Burke players, in the sense that neither one of them has any idea how to play goal.

Saku and Mikko Koivu - In addition to being brothers, both players have been NHL captains who've been criticized for not communicating properly in the local language; Saku in Montreal, because he could not speak French, and Mikko in Minnesota, because he is able to properly pronounce vowels.

Max, Doug and Reg Bentley - A goal by Reg in 1943 marked the first time in NHL history that three brothers all recorded points on the same goal and it will sure be fun to do the same thing in Carolina in a few years, says Marc Staal before realizing he probably wasn't supposed to say that last part out loud.

Read the rest of this post...

2012 World Championships preview

The new "Canada has to play without sticks
to make it fair" rule got mixed reviews.

Hockey fans never seem quite sure how to feel about the World Championships. On the one hand, international hockey is always entertaining. On the other, it can be difficult to get too excited about a competition that takes place right as the NHL playoffs are kicking into high gear.

This year's tournament, which got underway yesterday, is being co-hosted by Finland and Sweden. And as always, most of the coverage has focused as much on the intrigue around which players would accept invitations to represent their countries. With the roster still in flux even after the tournament starts, it can be tough to separate the also-rans from the contenders.

Here's a closer look at the six countries favored to take home the medals.

Russia

Team outlook: While the roster does feature Evgeni Malkin and Pavel Dastyuk, experts agree that the lack of a third-line center could be a major issue for the 30 or 40 seconds a game that they'll need one.
Key player: Team officials can't figure out why Ilya Bryzgalov hasn't shown up yet, since based on a look at his stats from the first round the Flyers clearly lost in four straight.
Prediction: While the players acknowledge that being under a microscope is just part of playing for Russia internationally, they're still not sure why Barry Trotz keeps showing up at their hotel and asking the front desk if he can have a look at their key cards.

Sweden

Team outlook: As always, the players will focus on the three tenets of Swedish international hockey: a high-tempo offense, a team-wide commitment to defense, and skating by their goaltender every few seconds to yell "Hey, just making sure but you're not Tommy Salo, right?"
Key player: Pekka Rinne, since he was kind enough to make sure the entire Detroit Red Wings roster was available.
Prediction: Daniel Alfredsson finds himself hoping for a matchup against Canada in Stockholm, since it would be a nice change of pace to play a home game against a team wearing maple leafs without being booed.

Read the rest of this post...

Twelve big names who could be on the move at the 2012 trade deadline

Eventually Getzlaf began to wonder if his poor
season could have something to do with having
one skate blade six inches higher than the other.

It’s February, the all-star weekend has come and gone, and we’re still a month away from the final playoff push. Hockey fans know what that means: it must be time for several weeks’ worth of wall-to-wall trade deadline coverage.

This year’s official deadline doesn’t arrive until 3:00 pm on February 27 for all teams except the Kings, who for some reason will get until 3:00:01. But even though we’re still almost three weeks away, the rumor mill is already churning out plenty of names, big and small.

Of course, most of those names will belong to players who won’t end up going anywhere. In fact, if history has taught us anything it’s that we should all relax and just wait to see what happens. But that’s no fun, so instead let’s feed into the hype with a dozen big name players who’ve been rumored to be on the market leading up to the deadline.

Jeff Carter, Columbus Blue Jackets – Recent reports have indicated that his no-trade clause is no longer in effect due to a loophole in the collective bargaining agreement, and also because he set it on fire on top of Scott Howson’s desk three months ago.

Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – The Duck seem to be intent on entering a rebuilding phase, and if there’s one thing we know about successful rebuilds it’s that they always start with trading your best young player when he’s at his absolute lowest possible value.

Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres – Plenty of teams will be making offers for the star goaltender but they probably won’t even have their calls returned, since nobody who takes a run at Ryan Miller ever gets a response.

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Video: Tomas Kaberle and Luke Schenn hand deliver Leafs season tickets

The NHL saw a welcome new trend last month, when several teams sent actual players out to hand deliver season tickets to fans. The Bruins sent Nathan Horton and Milan Lucic out to surprise some loyal fans, and the Penguins had half their roster knocking on doors in the Pittsburgh area.

Not as well publicized was the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs have a similar program. They sent Luke Schenn and Tomas Kaberle door-to-door to deliver tickets to Maple Leafs season ticket holders who bought seats in the ACC's lower section.

But for some reason they never got around to releasing the video. Until now...

For more NHL videos, visit www.blogesalming.com.

The other Toronto Maple Leaf training camp letters

If you're a Leafs fan, you've probably seen this training camp letter from 1962 by now. It's been making the e-mail rounds for weeks.

The apparently real letter is from Leafs' GM Punch Imlach to player Jim Pappin, informing him of the schedule for the upcoming training camp. It's filled with nostalgia for a bygone era, including quaint references to train travel, mandatory golfing sessions, and the requirement that all players be able to do 20 pushups.

But while the Pappin letter makes for a fun look back at hockey's past, many fans don't realize that these letters are a Toronto tradition. Every summer, the current Leafs general manager sits down to type out a letter to his players to let them know what to expect in September. And I just happen to have several original copies in my collection.

For example, here's the letter Brian Burke sent out this past summer:

Can't see the image? Download it here.

And here's the letter from the year before, when Cliff Fletcher was in charge:

Can't see the image? Download it here.

And, of course, the 2007 letter:

Can't see the image? Download it here.

The Top 20 Maple Leaf moments of the decade - Part 1

What has four eyes, no rings and one brain?

Oh, the 00's. What a terrible god-forsaken soul-crushingly awful interesting decade you were.

We had good times (cough, Quinn, cough), bad times (cough, Ferguson I hope you get run over by a cement truck in front of a daycare, cough), and cautious optimism. The decade had a little bit of everything.

Well, except for that big trophy thing. Can't remember what it's called. The Stanford something? It's probably not important.

So here's part one of a look a back at the top 20 Leaf moments of the decade. To keep it simple, we'll limit this to moments that happened on the ice. (Or, in limited cases, in the opponent's bench.)

20. Luke Schenn vs. Evgeni Malkin and Tyler Kennedy - Jan. 31, 2009

This wasn't the biggest hit of the decade, or the most entertaining fight. Not even close, really. But the moment did come to symbolize Schenn's potential, and his status as the centerpiece of the Leafs long-awaited rebuild. Finally, after years of JFJ-induced misery, there was hope. There was a future.

Of course, that was before Schenn regressed into a seventh-string press box denizen. But it was fun for a few months.

• Watch it on youtube


19. Owen Nolan wins the "flu game" - Feb. 5, 2004

This game was one of the most bizarre NHL games in recent memory, featured the Leafs greatest comeback of the decade, and marks the first of approximately 18 appearances by the Senators in this list.

The game started off as a typical Leafs/Sens regular season matchup, which is to say the Senators were on their way to an easy blowout win. Midway through the second period, Ottawa was cruising with a 4-0 lead.

Cue the comeback! Oh, and also the explosive diarrhea.

Both teams were battling a severe flu outbreak, but the Ottawa strain was apparently worse. Halfway through the game, the Sens bench began emptying as players were making between-shifts sprints to the restrooms. This marked the first time the Senators had ever soiled themselves during a game that didn't involve Tie Domi making eye contact with somebody.

By the end of regulation the Leafs had tied the game, and Nolan ended it in overtime with a long range slapshot. Afterwards, when reporters went to Nolan looking for a sympathetic quote on the Senators illness woes, he responded with an infamous quote: "boo hoo".


18. Cory Cross scores in OT to beat Ottawa - April 16, 2001

This was probably the least memorable of the (many) overtime goals the Leafs managed against the Senators, since it came in the middle of a fairly easy four-game sweep in 2001. But it was actually a critically important goal.

The Leafs had won the opening two games, shutting out the heavily favored Sens twice in Ottawa. In game three, Curtis Joseph took yet another shutout into the third period as the Leafs lead 2-0. But then a potential series turning point: the Senators scored twice, including the tying goal in the dying seconds. With the game headed to overtime, Leaf fans had to wonder if this was the beginning of an epic collapse.

It wasn't. Journeyman defensive defenceman Cory Cross drilled home a rebound to win it, and in the process became the worst player to ever score an overtime goal for the Leafs (sorry, Gary Valk).

• Watch it on youtube


17. Belak vs. Janssen - March 20, 2007

This just seems appropriate for #17, no?

Everyone remembers the circumstances leading up to this epic battle. Weeks earlier, Cam Janssen had sidelined Tomas Kaberle with an obvious cheap shot. Everyone knew that payback would be coming from Wade Belak, and everyone was right.

I'm not saying this was a long fight, but they dropped the gloves in March of 2007 and it just ended a few minutes ago.

• Watch it on youtube


16. Travis Green's OT winner against the Flyers - April 21, 2003

A lot of fans have forgotten this overtime winner, and with good reason. The 2003 playoffs were the only ones of the Quinn era that saw the Leafs make a first round exit, and most fans have saved precious space in their long-term memories for the longer runs that marked the first half of the decade.

Here's a depressing thought, though: this happened in 2003, and the Leafs haven't had an overtime playoff win since.


15. Kaberle quiets the Devils - May 5, 2001

Sometimes, hockey games seem destined follow a predictable storyline. Game five of the 2001 series between the Leafs and the Devils was one of those times.

This was the first game after Tie Domi's elbow had sidelines Scott Niedermayer, and the Devils were vowing revenge. Every hockey columnist on the continent had already agreed on the storyline: Domi's cement-headed cheapshot had robbed the Leafs of their momentum, woken up the sleeping Devils, and all but handed them the series. The Devils were officially the good guys, the Leafs were the hated villains, and game five would be a lesson in hockey karma.

Apparently, somebody forgot to tell Tomas Kaberle.

In the dying seconds of a 2-2 tie, Kaberle managed to sneak one by Martin Brodeur for the game winner. (By "sneak one by", I really mean "shot the puck into a wide open net because Brodeur had been blatantly run over in his crease seconds before", but let's not get picky.)

The Devils would still get their revenge, winning the last two games to take the series in seven. But for one night, at least, Tomas Kaberle and the Leafs gave the hockey world a nice big middle finger to go along with their blindside elbow.


14. Daniel Alfredsson's hit from behind on Darcy Tucker - May 12, 2002

OK, this one will seem like a strange pick. But stay with me.

Until the moment that Daniel Alfredsson blindsided Darcy Tucker (then scored the game-winner seconds later), you couldn't really hate the Ottawa Senators. Oh sure, the "Battle of Ontario" was well into its third playoff matchup in as many years. But it was meaningless rivalry, one that only mattered to insecure Ottawa fans who spent their time hating everything related to Toronto (when they weren't desperately trying to move there).

If you were a Leaf fan, you couldn't hate the Senators. You could feel sorry for them, maybe. You could be bored by them, probably. You could go weeks at a time without even remembering they existed, certainly. But hate them? Why?

Alfredsson provided a reason to, if not "hate" the Senators, at least be mildly annoyed by them. And that made the rest of the decade a lot more fun.

Man, what a cheap shot. I sure hope somebody gets that guy someday.


13. Mark Bell kills Daniel Alfredsson - April 3, 2008

This hit not only served up some long-overdue payback for the Tucker hit, it resulted in the only highlight of Paul Maurice's stint in Toronto: his observation that Senators reacted to the utter destruction of their captain with nothing but "some purse-swinging".

• Watch it on youtube
• OK, now go watch it again on youtube, you know you want to


12. Darcy Tucker's kamikaze bench dive - April 20, 2004

This is the moment where Darcy Tucker went from "Hey, this guy is crazy in a wacky and fun sort of way" to "Slowly inch away from him while staring at the floor and avoiding sudden movements".

• Read more about this moment


11. Sundin and Kaberle beat the Flyers in overtime - April 14, 2003

Much like Green's goal, this one hasn't really stood the test of time as being especially memorable. That said, it has to be on the list just based on the names involved. Mats Sundin executes one of his classic drives to the net, and Tomas Kaberle is in the right place at the right time. The two longest serving (and probably best) Maple Leafs of the decade combine to win a thriller.

• Watch it on youtube

Coming early next week: The top ten. Feel free to speculate in the comments, name something I completely forgot about, and make me rewrite the whole thing.

When teammates attack: Other teammate-inflicted NHL injuries

The Florida Panthers' playoff
chances: an interpretive dance

Keith Ballard is the talk of the hockey world today, thanks to his bizarre slash to the head that left teammate Tomas Vokoun bleeding on a stretcher.

But while Ballard is certainly an extreme case, he's not the first NHL player to accidentally cause an injury to a teammate. In fact, over the past few years the league has seen several regrettable incidents. Here's a look at some that had the biggest impact.

The player: Jonas Gustavsson
The injury: Heart arrhythmia due to repetitive trauma to the middle of his chest
What happened: Cumulative effect from a full month of facing Jason Blake in practice every day.

The player: Joe Thornton
The injury: Damaged windpipe due to choking
What happened: Unaware of strict internal rules regarding team meals, new teammate Dany Heatley mentions the word "playoffs".

The player: Andrei Markov
The injury: Sprained MCL
What happened: Repetitive strain of constantly having to drop to one knee to hold a conversation with the Habs' various offseason acquisitions.

The player: Brad Boyes
The injury: Severe hoof damage across his back
What happened: Wandered in between Keith Tkachuk and the post-game buffet.

The player: Alexei Ponikarovsky
The injury: Lower back pain, swollen ankles, and gestational diabetes
What happened: Accidentally made eye contact with Luke Schenn.

The player: Entire Vancouver Canucks defence
The injury: Second and third degree sunburns to the back of the neck.
What happened: Were forced to play an entire game in front of Andrew Raycroft.

The player: Rick DiPietro
The injury: Multiple fractures, torn ligaments, internal organ failure
What happened: Teammate Brendan Witt turned on a rotating fan in the dressing room, causing a light breeze.

The player: Marian Hossa
The injury: Lacerations to both wrists
What happened: New teammate Patrick Kane introduced himself by saying "Wow, you played for Pittsburgh and Detroit? Can I see your Cup rings?"

The player: Marc Staal
The injury: Impaired vision
What happened: Learning the details of Wade Redden's free agent contract caused eyes to cartoonishly pop out of head, detaching both retinas.

The player: Daniel Carcillo
The injury: Concussion
What happened: During a heated debate on the validity of the inferential thesis, Carcillo argues for Gibson's "ecological approach" to the conception of perception, leading Riley Cote (a known advocate of Fodor and Pylyshyn's stance that affordances presuppose direct perception and therefore can not be used to explain it) to hit him over the head with a folding chair.

The player: Chris Neil
The injury: Two broken ankles
What happened: Instinctively leapt out of eighth floor hotel window after Chris Phillips mentioned that the bellhop kind of looked like Colton Orr.

The player: Chris Drury
The injury: Existential crisis
What happened: Realization that Sean Avery continues to pull incredibly hot women forced him to question the very existence of a just and merciful god.

The player: Mike Fisher
The injury: Broken jaw and fractued orbital bone
What happened: Tried to keep a straight face when Daniel Alfredsson delivered his "Go ahead and write it, I guarantee we'll win the Cup" quote.

Maple Leafs 80s night: a sneak peek

OK, hold up one finger for
every winning season.

On Saturday night, the Leafs will host the Calgary Flames. In keeping with the club's new Mandatory Pre-Game Ceremony policy, the game has been designated "80's Night".

Much like the recent Maple Leafs 90s Night, 20 former players will be honored during the pre-game skate. Fans can vote on their favorites from the decade by visiting a page on the Leafs' official web site that is also the #1 result if you run a google search for "unbelievably awesome moustaches".

But it goes without saying that a night this important will include far more than just a few retro jerseys. In fact, the night will feature several nods to the Maple Leafs of the 1980s. Here are just a few:

• Allan Bester will be honored with a highlight video, drop the puck for the ceremonial faceoff, and then immediately take Vesa Toskala's roster spot.
  
  
• One lucky fan will win a 1982 AMC Eagle.
  
  
• Brian Burke will reveal that his entire strategy for making the playoffs this year hinged on recording a 52-point season and finishing one point ahead of the Minnesota North Stars.
  
  
• A special scoreboard video will celebrate the careers of blue chip Leafs defensive prospects like Jim Benning, Gary Nylund and Drake Berehowsky, after which Luke Schenn will proceed to center ice and hang himself.
  
  
• Fans in the upper section will only have to pay $12 to get in. The other $288 will be paid on the way out.
  
  
• In the spirit of every other Leafs/Flames game from the 1980s, fans will be encouraged to boo the hell out of that annoying little bastard Doug Gilmour.
  
  
• For the entire game the ACC will only feature cheesy music from the 1980s, instead of only featuring cheesy music from the 1990s like they normally do.
  
  
• Half-price hot dogs for all fans named "Mirko".
  
  
• A random draw will be held to select one of the organization's talented young forward prospects, who will immediately be traded to the Habs for George Laraque.
  
  
• MLSE president Richard Peddie will give a presentation titled "The Harold Ballard era of incompetent, meddling, morale-destroying ownership: Hey, good thing we don't have to deal with that anymore, am I right?"
  
  
• Any Maple Leaf player wearing a jersey number in the 80s will be excused from all physical play and backchecking duties for the entire game.
  
  
• Floyd Smith will remind everyone that trading your first round pick is probably a bad idea if you plan to finish last overall.
  
  
• Nazem Kadri will appear via satellite to point out that, just like every other player the Leafs will ever draft from now on, he wasn't even alive in the 1980s. There will then be a moment of silence for the rest of us to ponder how old we suddenly feel.
  
  
• The team will promise not to win a Stanley Cup for at least 25 or 30 more years.
  

Ron Wilson's 15-point plan for fixing the Maple Leafs

It could be worse.
[Checks standings.]
Wait, I was wrong.

OK, so maybe October didn't go quite as well as it could have.

But that's fine, because now it's November (when it matters). And while some might point out that the Leafs have already fallen so far behind a playoff pace that the rest of the season if essentially futile, I remain optimistic. Because the Leafs still have Ron Wilson, and Ron Wilson has a plan.

How do I know? Because I've seen it. DGB spies found it in his office in a folder labeled "super top secret" and they were kind enough to send me a copy. And because I know that loyal Leaf fans could use some reassurance that everything is under control, I'm reprinting it here.

Here's Ron Wilson's 15-point plan for getting the Leafs back on track:

• Have goaltending coaches work extensively with Vesa Toskala on positioning. Specifically, how to position his ass on the end of the bench for the remainder of the season.
  
  
• Reconsider season-long policy of having the team's penalty kill strategy organized by the NHLPA executive committee.
  
  
• Keep reminding Brian Burke that coaching a team full of overmatched losers who suffer crushing defeat in every game they play will actually end up being invaluable experience once the Olympics start.
  
  
• From now on, before every game each member of the starting lineup must eat a hair from Ian White's moustache.
  
  
• Look through pockets of pants we were wearing on July 1, see if we can find the receipt for Mike Komisarek.
  
  
• Get everyone's mind off of current slump by taking entire team to see the big-budget Hollywood blockbuster "2012", which is presumably the true story of the Leafs' next decent draft pick.
  
  
• I don't know, maybe ask Luke Schenn to not suck so much this year?
  
  
• Continue to send guys like Stalberg, Bozak and Tlusty to the minors if they don't perform, sending a clear and unmistakable message that roster spots on this team must be earned (assuming you're a rookie, and not a veteran third-liner, in which case don't worry about it.)
  
  
• Practices will no longer include an intensive drill called "How to take a lazy, momentum-killing holding penalty at the worst possible time".
  
  
• Continue with brilliant scheme of winning one game in October, two in November, four in December and so on. By the time foolish opposition realizes our plan, we'll have clinched a playoff spot thanks to 64-win April.
  
  
• Send Jason Blake home from practice with suggestion that he get some well-deserved rest. Then, when he's napping, quietly move his bed into the 401 collector lane.
  
  
• Have players spend time in soundproof hyperbaric chambers to better prepare them for the atmosphere during home games at the ACC.
  
  
• New practice drill: pointing at Tomas Kaberle and yelling "Everyone be like him!"
  
  
• Make sure Phil Kessel understands that despite mounting pressure due to fan and media expectations, it's actually completely fine if he doesn't score a goal on a particular shift as long as he remembers to come back and score two on the next one.
  
  
• Work on resume.
  

The bright side: Six good things about six awful losses

Source: PBF

A few people pinged me on twitter recently to ask if there would be a new DGB post this week. Apparently, some Leaf fans could use some cheering up.

My initial reaction was that writing anything vaguely amusing these days would be all but impossible. After all, I have Center Ice, a television, and two functioning eyes. Those eyes are red from crying and/or having steel wool jammed into them, but they're still functioning. Unfortunately.

On top of that, optimism isn't really my thing. I've tried it in the past and it didn't go well. I tend to do better at depressing people.

But the people have spoken, and I'm up for a challenge. Let's see if we can't come up with a few positives from all of this.

OK, here we go!

Um...

Man.

No, wait. I can do this, dammit. Let's make it happen. In honor of the Leafs losing six straight games to start the season, let's see if we can at least come up with six good things about the season so far.

1. When the Leafs signed Mike Komisarek, some people mocked the signing because they said he was a one-dimensional player who couldn't score. It sure didn't take long for him to prove them wrong, did it?

2. Remember how the big story during training camp the last two years was whether the hotshot prospect (Schenn, Kadri) should stay in Toronto or go back to junior, with everyone weighing in and arguing ad nauseum about for weeks? It got kind of annoying, didn't it?

Well imagine how out-of-hand it would be next year with Taylor Hall. Thanks for taking care of that one in advance, Burkie!

3. With every loss, we get closer and closer to the inevitable moment when Ron Wilson responds to a postgame media question by screaming "take his pen!", sprinting across the podium and diving into the press pit like Axl Rose.

The over/under on this happening is December 1st, by the way.

4. After we lose to the Rangers on Saturday, the Leafs don't play for a full week. That's about 165 hours without any action at all. And there's an excellent chance that during that time, our rebuilt defence won't allow more than five or six goals. Eight, tops.

5. Remember back when the Leafs used to make the playoffs, and a critical game would go into overtime? Remember the almost unbearable tension, how it felt like a weight on your chest that threatened to crush you underneath it?

Yeah. You're not going to have to worry about feeling that way again for a long time.

6. Scientists say that eventually the earth will crash into the sun. If Leaf fans have any luck, it could happen tomorrow.

Hmm. I may need to work on this whole "finding the bright side" thing. Luckily it looks like I'll get lots of practice this year.

Bad hockey predictions: Black swans, hindsight bias, and why the Leafs could win the Cup.

(Editor's note: This is one of those annoying serious posts, but if you stick with it I promise to slip in a "Kyle Wellwood is fat" joke somewhere. If not, I'll be back with some fun stuff later in the week.)

The new season is almost here, and that means it's time for one of hockey's annual traditions -- terrible, terrible predictions.

One example: Inspired by a recent brilliant post on Puck Daddy, the folks over at Mile High Hockey spent some time digging through ESPN's hockey archives, and found out that, predictably, ESPN is awful at making predictions.

None of their small army of so-called experts successfully picked the Penguins as Cup winners, and most ended up picking champs who didn't even end up winning a single round.

The experts: Not just wrong, but lazy too
This isn't a surprise. Hockey predictions are always awful. Ask a typical hockey expert to predict the coming season and chances are they'll take last year's standings, move a few teams up or down one spot, and call that "analysis".

And they'll be wrong. Not just a little bit wrong, but terribly, hilariously, "not even in the ballpark" wrong.

This time last year, everyone agreed that the Habs would win the Stanley Cup. The Stars and Avs would contend in the West, the Blues would challenge for last place overall, and the Bruins would struggle to make the playoffs.

Everybody agreed on this. Everybody was wrong. And this happens every single year.

It would be tempting to point at this as evidence that so-called hockey experts are really just frauds who know as much (or less) as you or I. But there's actually more to it than that. Hockey experts aren't frauds. They're just human.

Human are terrible at making predictions
Find any prediction from any time on any subject -- sports, politics, economics -- and it's likely that it turned out to wrong.

A year before the US election, most experts were arguing over whether Hillary Clinton would beat Rudy Guliani. Find any resource that does financial analysis and you'll find plenty of experts who swore the economy could never tank, right up until the economy tanked. Find any prediction ever made about what the world would be like in the future, then look outside your window and count how many flying cars you see.

We love to make predictions about the future. And when we do, we're almost always wrong. What's going on?

There's just some basic math at play here that's hard to overcome. Take any system with even the slightest bit of complexity, start predicting the possible states, and you pretty quickly find that you're dealing with some pretty large numbers -- large enough that predicting anything with much accuracy becomes near impossible.

Now nobody looks at a set of sports predictions and expects the expert to be exactly right. But there are so many unknowns and moving parts that even being vaguely, sort-of, quasi-right ends up being incredibly unlikely.

So it's not that we're bad at predicting complex things because we're dumb. We're bad at it because, mathematically, it's almost impossible. But we don't seem to know that. Plenty of psychological experiments have shown that when you ask people to make predictions, and then ask them to rate their confidence in their predictions, they always miss by a mile.

Put another way: we're not just bad at making predictions, we're bad at predicting how bad our predictions will be. No matter how many times we're wrong, we always think we're going to be right next time. And we never are.

Excuse me sure, I think your bias is showing
Here's the good news: We're terrible at predicting, but we're great at rationalizing.

There's a well known psychological phenomenon called the hindsight bias. Basically, even though we're terrible at predicting what will happen, we're great at fooling ourselves after the fact. We have a built-in ability to pretend that things were predictable all along.

Of course the Habs crashed and burned last year -- look at all the holes in their lineup! Of course the Bruins challenged for first overall -- look at all that young talent! Of course the Stars missed the playoffs -- everyone knew Avery would destroy that dressing room!

Those same experts who couldn't predict the future are more than willing to accurately predict that past.

And it gets worse.

Black swans
In probability, the "black swan" theory was presented by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name. (The book, by the way, is highly recommended if you're really interested in mathematical probability, economics, and authors going on and on about how wonderful they are until you want to hunt them down and slap them.)

Taleb's "black swans" are events that have enormous impact, were unpredictable, and are considered incredibly rare. Examples include 9/11, the rise of the internet, and various stock market meltdowns. Nobody sees them coming, even though everyone agrees that, in hindsight, we should have (there's that bias again).

While not on the same level of importance as world wars and global catastrophes, the sports world is filled with black swans. Kurt Warner. Len Bias. Tom Brady. Mark Prior. All were black swans of the sports world, good and bad.

Hockey has plenty of examples. An undrafted and unwanted Martin St. Louis winning an MVP, Art Ross and Stanley Cup? Black swan. The Red Wings drafting future hall-of-famers in the final rounds of back-to-back drafts? Black swan. Leeman for Gilmour? Black swan. Kyle Wellwood doing a situp? Big time black swan.

What will this year's black swans be? Maybe Jonas Gustavsson wins the Vezina. Maybe Luke Schenn regresses and gets sent to the minors. Maybe Jason Blake works in a pass or two.

Nobody knows. But those black swans are out there, for more than a few teams. They're going to change everything, and they'll throw all the expert analysis right out the window.

So what does all this have to do with anything?
Nobody's arguing that it's impossible to predict anything about the sports world, or that the results we'll see will be determined solely by random chance. Some players and teams are better than others, and they'll probably have better results. That's common sense. Sometimes, things really do work out the way you'd expect.

But there will be surprises. There will be injuries, and blockbuster trades, and guys who come out of nowhere to become stars, and hot shot prospects that turn out to be duds. Virtually every team will have a few black swans of its own that will throw all the conventional wisdom out the window.

All of us -- experts, bloggers, the guy next to you in the bar -- are going to be wrong. By a mile. This season is going to end up looking nothing like what any of us predict.

And when it's all over, we're going to look back and pretend we knew it all along. After all, we're only human.

So here's the bottom line: Ignore the predictions. Sit back and enjoy the ride. And if every expert in the world is predicting that your team will come in dead last this year, don't worry.

They may be right. But don't bet on it.

A look ahead at the Maple Leafs 2009-10 schedule

The Maple Leafs 2009-2010 schedule was released today. And since we already have a pretty good idea what all the rosters will look like next year, that means I could spend the afternoon loading everything into the top-secret DGB supercomputer to find out what will happen.

After several hours of flashing lights and whirring noises, I had my answer. Based on today's schedule, here are several highlights from the upcoming Leafs season.

(Warning: The following contains spoilers. If you want to be surprised, stop reading now.)

October 1 - The Leafs play the Montreal Canadiens in the season opener. Sadly, the traditional intermission "timbits" game is ruined when Bob Gainey wanders onto the ice and offers everyone contracts.

October 3 - The Leafs head to Washington. Hoping to catch the Capitals off guard, Ron Wilson gives Justin Pogge the surprise start in net. In a related story, Alexander Ovechkin becomes the first player in the league to reach the 50 goal mark.

October 10 - The Leafs host the Stanley Cup champion Penguins. Unfortunately, Evgeni Malkin and Tyler Kennedy are forced to miss the game after coming down with a bad case of the Schenn Flu.

October 17 - The Leafs host the Rangers, and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "I know some fans don't support me," says Heatley, "but I'm just thrilled to be playing hockey again."

October 17 - 24 - After a gruelling half-month of hockey, the NHL's schedule makers decide that the Leafs need a full week off. Gary Bettman defends the move by explaining "We sensed that fans were really starting to get excited about hockey, and wanted to nip that in the bud."

November 1 - 30 - The Leafs play 13 games during the month. Ron Wilson calls for a stick measurement in every single one, just to annoy Howard Berger.

November 13 - The Leafs head to Chicago for their only game of the season against their longtime rivals. In other Blackhawk news, Dale Tallon starts to get a sinking feeling that he forgot to register his kids for school.

December 7 - Nik Antropov and Pavel Kubina return to Toronto as members of the Atlanta Thrashers. After hours of answering questions about what it was like to play in Toronto, how exciting it was to play in a city that cares about hockey, and how difficult it is now to play in front of so few fans, they finally tell Ilya Kovalchuk to just be quiet and wait for free agency.

December 9 - The Leafs host the Islanders. During an intermission interview, John Tavares attempts to blink out a message asking someone to come rescue him.

December 14 - In a game that recalls the infamous "Flu Game" of 2004, the Leafs are awarded a forfeit win after the Ottawa Senators refuse to take the ice in what will later be known as the "Schenn Flu Game".

December 16 - The Leafs host the Phoenix Coyotes. Jim Balsillie buys every ticket, sits in the front row, and spends the entire game lighting cigars with $100 bills while giving the camera the finger.

December 26 - The Leafs host the Montreal Canadiens on Boxing Day. That ends up being somewhat ironic, since there are several incidents of fisticuffs during the game. And also because every player on the Canadiens goes home in a pine box.

January 8 - The Leafs kick off a four-game homestand with a game in Buffalo.

January 26 - The LA Kings make their only visit to Toronto. Brian Burke leaves early, presumably to catch a flight as he's seen dragging a heavy duffel bag out of the arena. In an unrelated story, the Kings report that Brayden Schenn has gone missing.

January 29 - February 5 - The Leafs play Jacques Lemaire and the Devils three times in one week. Leaf fans look back fondly on that comparatively thrilling week in October when there weren't any games.

February 8 - The Leafs host the Sharks, and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "It's unfortunate that things didn't work out in New York," Heatley says, "but I'm happy to be in San Jose because I'm all about the team."

February 12 - The NHL breaks for the Olympics games, a grueling three-week tournament featuring the very best players from around the world. Or, as the entire Maple Leafs roster calls it, "February".

March 11 - The Leafs host the Lightning, and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "I really think this will be a good fit," Heatley says. "When do the world championships start?"

March 13 - Prior to playing the Leafs, the Edmonton Oilers assure everyone that they're still totally in on the Dany Heatley sweepstakes.

April 4 - The World Health Organization declares Schenn Flu to be a global pandemic. They advise anyone who has ever thought about bodychecking a Leafs player to remain in an underground bunker for the next 15-20 years.

April 7 - The Maple Leafs are mathematically eliminated from the 2011 playoffs.

April 10 - On their way back to Toronto after the season finale, the Leafs stop at a McDonalds drivethru and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "I really think I handled everything well this year," says Heatley. "Would you like fries with that?"

NHL 2009 Draft Liveblog

Welcome to the 2009 Draft liveblog. I'll be updating here throughout the afternoon and the first round. Refresh the page for the latest updates, and don't forget to follow me at twitter.com/DownGoesBrown.

11:00 - So there you have it. The first round ended up being largely predictable and somewhat dull. The Leafs walk away with one decent prospect and a whole lot of "what if"s.

Thanks to everyone who joined in tonight.

9:40 - I'm always amazed at how many teams apparently base their draft decisions on geography. First Minnesota, now Montreal. You'd think you'd prefer to take the best player, no?

9:25 - The folks at hfboards aren't impressed either.

9:05 - And there goes Zach Kassian. Time to start drinking.

9:00 - Every time a kid is drafted in the first round, they show him having a quick conversation with his girlfriend. How many of them do you think go like this?

Her: Congratulations baby! I love you!
Him: Thanks. By the way, we're no longer together.
Her: But... but... you promised we would always...
Him: Security, have her removed.
Her: (sob)
Him: (Hits on Elisha Cuthbert)

8:40 - According to Wikipedia, it could have been worse.

8:25 - From RobViper13 in the comments:

Good job Boyd Deveraux. That hat trick on the final night of the season cost us Brayden Schenn. Was it worth it?

8:20 - When I expressed disappointment at Burke not doing anything at the deadline, everyone said that Burke would do his work at the draft. Safe to assume that now everyone will tell me to just wait for free agency? Then training camp... then the next deadline...

8:15 - The Leafs have drafted Nazem Kadri with the #7 pick.

He sounds like a great kid, and he's immediately one of the best prospects in the Leafs system.

But the bottom line is that after writing off an entire year, the Leafs didn't wind up with a surefire stud. And that's a little hard to swallow, no?

8:05 - OEL goes to the Coyotes. Leafs are up next. CTRL-V? Grant Jennings? Trade down? Or somebody else?

8:00 - The Kings just took Owen Schenn at #5.

Meanwhile, Dreger is reporting that the Leafs are hoping Bouwmeester is dealt tonight so that they can make a Kaberle deal.

So just to recap: The Ducks go out and find a great deal for Pronger, while the Leafs are waiting around for the Panthers to create a market for them.

7:50 - It's a little tough to listen to all these media folks who spent the last week swearing that the Isles would take Duchene or Hedman now turn around and confirm how predictable the draft has been.

7:40 - After all the uncertainty, the first three picks went as expected.

Now we're at #4, which is Evander Kane territory. Let's all watch as the announcers awkwardly refer to him as "athletic".

7:30 - The Flyers got absolutely robbed on the Pronger deal. Two firsts and two players for one year of an old defenceman? Wow.

Meanwhile, the Lightning take Hedman. Guess we'll never know if there was a deal in place with the Leafs.

I'm not completely sold on Hedman. Despite the once-in-a-generation combination of size and skill, he's still only two letters away from being this guy.

7:15 - The Islanders take Tavares with the #1 pick. That's the right move. And it was nice to have a little suspense for a change.

The moment is diminished somewhat when Brian Burke runs up to the podium, clubs Tavares over the head, loads his body into the trunk of his car and drives off.

6:55 - There's a major thunderstorm getting ready to hit southern Ottawa.

Me + being at home during the draft when everyone else is in Montreal = mild annoyance.

Me + being at home during the draft if there's a power failure = potential psychotic rampage.

6:35 - More on the (apparently dead) Leafs/Bruins deal. It seems the Bruins really did expect to get Tomas Kaberle and the #7 for Phil Kessel.

So I guess the "misunderstanding" is that Burke thought the Bruins were actually serious about making a deal, and not just wasting everyone's time.

6:20 - My annual plea to NHL GMs:

• We know you want to thank Montreal for hosting.
  
• We know you want to congratulate the Penguins for winning the Cup.
  
• Therefore, feel free to skip that part and just make your damn pick.

6:00 Now TSN says there was a "major miscommunication" between the Leafs and Bruins, with both teams thinking that the other side was throwing in a high draft pick.

How does that happen? Is this my office fantasy football pool?

5:50 - Bob McKenzie says he'll be "shocked" if Kaberle doesn't wind up in Boston by the end of the night. Meanwhile, Dreger says the deal is off.

In other words, TSN will eventually claim they had a scoop on this.

5:30 - Just a reminder: If you're in Montreal, and especially if you're at the Bell Centre tonight, I hate you.

4:50 - My reaction the reported Bruins offer of Kessel plus a pick for Kaberle is pretty much identical to Brian Burke's: Decent offer, worth considering, now let's see if anyone else out there wants to do better.

4:00 - Finally, draft day is here. For Leaf fans who've been waiting all year for the Brian Burke rebuild to really get going, tonight's draft is the equivalent of Christmas morning.

That makes this afternoon the equivalent of the night before Christmas, which was always the best part. Enjoy it while you can -- it's that wonderful moment of anticipation and hope before crushing reality sets in.

Kid: Socks? Underwear?
Dad: Merry Christmas!
Kid: But dad, didn't you promise to trade up and get me a bike?
Dad: Daddy tried. Didn't work out.
Kid: Maybe Daddy should spend more time working and less time talking to the media.
Dad: GO TO YOUR ROOM!

Leafs draft preview: I have a bad feeling about this...

Various media have reported today that Brian Burke is still hot on the trail of John Tavares. With less than 72 hours left to make a deal, Burke has apparently made no progress but feels he has plenty of time.

I'm glad to hear it. Because for the past few weeks I've been devouring mock drafts and trying to talk myself into three players that the Leafs seem to have the best shot at: Brayden Schenn, Jared Cowen, and Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson.

And it will probably not shock you to learn that it's not going so well.

Yes, each of these three guys sounds like a fantastic player. And each would clearly fill a glaring need on a Leafs roster that has plenty of them. But as you no doubt know by now, it's in my nature to look for the downside as well.

So let's take a look at the three most likely candidates to become your next Maple Leaf savior, and why we may need to downgrade expectations.

---

I wonder if Tyler Kennedy
has a younger brother
who needs his ass kicked?

Brayden Schenn

The strengths: Is the brother of Luke Schenn.

Seriously, that's really all you need to know. NHL scouts haven't even bothered to watch him. His parents have patiently tried to explain that Brayden doesn't like hockey and has never even been on skates, but he's still Luke's brother so he's a top five pick. End of story.

The concern: I'll be honest, I love the idea of having two brothers form the core of our long-term rebuild. Luke Schenn was such a monster last year that the thought of doubling down on the family gene pool has me giddy.

But let's run down the script here: Luke is older. He's better known. The Leafs traded up to get him, he made the team as a teenager, played on the top pairing for much of the season, was named to the all-rookie team, and earlier today he was inducted into the NHL Hall of Fame. When he walks the streets of Toronto, tiny eunuchs scurry in front of him to scatter rose petals.

Now here comes Brayden, the younger brother who may actually be more talented. But he's trapped in his big brother's shadow. And he knows it. Everybody knows it.

If a lifetime of english literature, greek epic poetry and professional wrestling have taught me anything, it's that younger brothers can't be trusted. The potential for an eventual dramatic brotherly backstab is off-the-charts here.

Keep in mind, these two kids are from Western Canada. There's precedent here that should raise all kind of red flags. Don't say you weren't warned if at some point Brayden snaps on Luke, and kicks his leg out of his leg.

---

Jared Cowen does his
impression of every Leaf
fan the day JFJ was hired.

Jared Cowen

The strengths: Was a consensus top five pick who was even getting some fringe consideration as a potential first overall choice until he blew out his knee this season and slid down the rankings. Has the size and mean streak to be the steal of the draft. If paired with Luke Schenn, would likely play his entire career without ever being on the ice for a goal against.

The concern: None. Drafting a can't-miss defensive stud who dropped in the rankings because he wrecked his knee is always a great idea.

Seriously, this is can't miss. Any time you have a chance to take a top ten pick and turn it into Grant Jennings, you have to go for it.

---

This man could someday
break Doug Gilmour's team
record for ridiculous hair.

Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson

The strengths: MPS, as the kids call him, is a dynamic playmaking winger with excellent size, speed and creativity. Based on raw skill alone he would immediately become the Leafs' best winger, and probably also their second-line center and perhaps backup goalie.

The concern: His name is, literally, impossible to spell. I know this seems petty, but I'm a blogger. This is important to me.

Seriously, take a good long look at it: Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson. WTF?

I don't know about you, but I don't have a "ä" key on my keyboard, let alone three of them. What kind of person fires off a triple umlaut into one name? Is he a hockey player or an 80s hair metal band?

Here's a little known fact about Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson: his full name has only ever been typed once. Since then, every single person who has ever written about him has been cutting and pasting from that original version, passing it down to future generations like monks transcribing the bible. If the Leafs draft him, they should create a page on their web site that just says "Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson" in 36-point font so that writers can easily grab it whenever they need to mention him.

At the very least, can we all agree to ditch the horribly uncreative "MPS" nickname in favor of something better? I'm suggesting "CTRL-V". Who's with me?

---

As you can see, I'm struggling here.

So please, Burkie, get a deal done. Draft John Tavares for us long-suffering Leaf fans, so that we'll finally have a prospect with no downside.

(You know, other than the poor defensive play, mediocre skating, questionable work ethic... oh god...)

Draft note: I'll be blogging on Friday night during the first round of the draft. I won't call it a liveblog, but I'll try to update a few times over the course of the night.

And since I'm apparently the only hockey blogger on the planet who won't be in Montreal this weekend, I may also try to hack into Pension Plan Puppets and post there too. Assuming PPP hasn't changed the site's password ("gillsux"), head over when the Leafs make their pick and commiserate with me.

The final four: Who should Leaf fans be cheering for?

For the sixth season in a row, the NHL's final four is taking place without an appearance by the Maple Leafs. That means that the league's largest fan base has nobody to cheer for. And with the second round elimination of the Canucks, there's not even a Canadian team left for Leaf fans to pretend to be cheering for while secretly rooting against.

What's a Leaf fan to do? Yes, OK, but besides watching John Tavares highlight tapes and fondling themselves, what's a Leaf fan to do?

I'm not here to give you the answer, but I do want you to make an informed decision. So here, from a Leaf fan's perspective, are some of the reasons to root for (or against) the four remaining teams.

---

Detroit Red Wings

Plus: In this economy, having the Stanley Cup stay in Detroit for another year increases chances that Maple Leafs will eventually be able to buy it in a Windsor pawn shop.

Minus: Their second round victory over the Anaheim Ducks provided disturbing evidence that teams built by Brian Burke can sometimes still lose.

Plus: As the top remaining seed, are the team most likely to win the final round in a sweep. Which, based on the schedule, is the only way these playoffs are ending before July.

Minus: A raucous Stanley Cup celebration could endanger us all by startling Zombie Chris Chelios.

Plus: Occasional news of a Red Wings championship is the only joy left in the life of Bob Probert, as he spends his post-retirement days in the concrete underground bunker he constructed to avoid Wendel Clark.

---

Chicago Blackhawks

Plus: Sort of tough to root against the team that gave us Stu Grimson, Dave Manson, and the quivering corpse of Mike Peluso.

Minus: Their upset win over the Canucks brought on the start of Kyle Wellwood's off-season much earlier than expected, possibly leading to summer-long food shortages in Western Canada.

Plus: An appearance in finals might lead to someone mentioning that the Hawks have the longest current NHL championship drought, which would be news to the majority of Canadian hockey fans who assume that the Leafs do.

Minus: If the Hawks win a Cup, a gleeful Toronto media will no doubt produce a flood of stories about the Leafs drought now being the NHL's longest, including one article produced solely by Howard Berger dry-humping his keyboard.

Plus: Are proving that a team can win despite overpaid and sub-par goaltending, which might help create an off-season market for Vesa Toskala.

---

Pittsburgh Penguins

Plus: Offer hope to Leafs fans by proving that a decade of constant losing, front office incompetence, and almost total irrelevance can result in a pretty darn good roster.

Minus: Every game they win means a few more days of having to look at Sidney Crosby's child molester moustache playoff beard.

Plus: Jordan Staal's showdown with brother Eric will inevitably result in TSN doing a "top ten hockey brothers of all-time" countdown, and it will be nice to see Luke and Brayden Schenn in the #1 spot.

Minus: Not really fair for them to win this year's Stanley Cup, since they're already pencilled in to win the next five or six.

Plus: Feature an inspiring feel-good story in form of defenceman Hal Gill, the only player ever signed by John Ferguson Jr. who is still playing in the NHL.

---

Carolina Hurricanes:

Plus: Each win results in more momentum for the idea of Cam Ward starting for the Canadian Olympic team in place of Roberto Luongo, which is great news assuming you're among the 99.5% of the world's population that isn't from Canada.

Minus: Sometimes, their runs to the Cup final result in Leafs getting stuck with their loser coach.

Plus: If they win, Leaf fans won't have to put up with annoying trash-talk from die-hard Hurricanes fans, since there aren't any.

Minus: Yet another Cup ring for Frantisek Kaberle might make brother Tomas start to have second thoughts about this whole "have zero interest in ever playing for a winning team" policy.

Plus: A championship run would help with publicity for Scott Walker's admirable new charity, "Beat Cervical Cancer by Sucker Punching it in the Face".

---

The bottom line: I think when you weigh the evidence, the final verdict is pretty clear. Leafs Nation, we can all agree on this, right?

Yeah, I thought so. Pass the Tavares highlights.

Would you trade our next two firsts for Tavares?

So Brian Burke says he's trading for John Tavares. Cool. So now that we know who the Leafs are drafting, we can turn to the question of what it will cost them.

Howard Berger floats the first possibility in his blog today:

...the Leafs’ first-round pick [No. 7 overall]; at least one second-round pick; Luke Schenn, and a wad of cash [i.e. taking an existing contract off the Islanders’ roster]?

Now most Leafs fans aren't interested in hearing Schenn's name in trade talks, and that includes me. But Berger's on the right track here, because the price for moving up will be skyhigh. So let's swap out Schenn for an asset of comparable value: the Leafs' first pick in next year's draft.

Would you be willing to move the Leafs first round picks both this year and next as part of a deal to move up to get Tavaras? I floated the idea over at PPP earlier today and the initial response wasn't positive. Too steep, some said.

Wrong.

If the Islanders were willing to move the Tavares pick for a pair of firsts and some other secondary assets (and there's no reason yet to believe they would), Burke should pull the trigger and not look back.

The bottom line is that guys like John Tavares don't come around often. No, he's not a once-in-a-generation talent like Gretzky or Lemieux or maybe even Crosby. But he's no Patrick Stefan either. Tavares is an elite prospect who most seem to consider to be about as close to a sure thing as any developing 18-year-old can be.

Burke is making noise about the playoffs next year, which suggests he thinks next year's pick may be in the mid-teens. Maybe, although I'm not buying that until I see some serious roster turnover. But let's assume he's wrong, and the team is just as bad next year as they were this season, maybe even a little worse. Let's say they wind up in that same 5-10 zone they've been stuck in lately.

Would you deal two picks in that 5-10 zone for a #1? Yes, absolutely.

Think of it this way: Would you rather have Alex Ovechkin, or Blake Wheeler and Devin Setoguchi? Would you prefer Sidney Crosby, or Setoguchi and Phil Kessel? Rick Nash, or Joffrey Lupul and Thomas Vanek? Vincent Lecavalier, or Nik Antropov and Tim Connolly?

I'm guessing you wouldn't. Maybe you'd think about the Nash deal. But you'd laugh at the others.

Those are the last four players that came into the league with as much hype as Tavares. And the proposed deals include the best players who were taken 5-through-10 in their draft year and the one after.

All of this is a bit of a silly way to make the point that the dropoff from a stud #1 to the next tier of high first rounders is often steep.

Maybe it's not a fair comparison. Some of those drafts were more top-heavy than this year, which should produce some very good players in the later half of the top ten. But again, I took the best 5-through-10 player I could find from each draft -- needless to say, there were also several duds picked in those spots.

Let's be clear: the two first rounders on their own wouldn't be enough. But they could form the core of a solid offer, and it's safe to assume that if the Islanders were interested then a handful of extra picks and/or salary dumps wouldn't get in Burke's way.

We've all heard the sermon about building patiently and holding on to draft picks at all costs. That's a good strategy under normal circumstances. But the chance to land Tavares isn't normal circumstances. If there's a chance to make it happen and Brian Burke needs to load up both barrels, then Leaf fans should be cheering him on all the way.