Capital punishment

The gang over at Pension Plan Puppets have adopted the Washington Capitals as their temporary team.

Here's PPP's reasoning:

We're officially cheering on another team. Yes, I know I wrote an entire post about playoff hate but the consensus has been that you can't hate teams that have not done you any harm. The Leafs have never met in the playoffs, the two teams have never played any big regular season games, and any problems the Leafs have had recently with the Capitals have been self-inflicted.

Now, I like the Caps. Their fans have waited a long time for something to cheer about. They were kind enough to give us Peter Zezel and Bob Rouse, I always liked Dale Hunter, and Alexander Ovechkin is pretty much the coolest guy in the league.

The MCI Center even provided one of my favorite non-Leaf NHL memories. A few years back we were in Washington to visit the in-laws and had a chance to take in a Habs/Caps game. The arena was half-empty, of course, so we were able to pick up cheap tickets in the lower bowl. Halfway through the first period, a pane of glass pops out almost right in front of us and there's a long delay while they try to install a new one.

As we're sitting in the dead quiet arena, we notice a certain well-coifed official is supervising as the replacement pane goes in. My lovely wife suddenly stands up, leans towards the opening, and shouts "Hey Fraser, you jerk, you blew the Gretzky call and ruined my husband's life!"

He skated away -- I'm not sure if he heard her, or just saw a reflective surface somewhere he could gaze into lovingly. But some friendly Caps fans wanted to know the story behind it. After I told them about that game (which takes me about 45 minutes start-to-finish and involves profanity, hand gestures and an improvised Euler diagram), they agreed it was a travesty and bought us beer.

So I'll always have a soft spot for the Capitals. But I can't do it, PPP. I can't jump on another team's bandwagon, even temporarily. I'll watch. Maybe even cheer. But I won't call the Caps my team. I'm a Leafs fan and a Leafs fan only until the day I die (which will be this summer, by the way, of self-inflicted head wounds when we don't get Brian Burke).

Bottom line: I can't have a second-favorite team any more than I can have a second-favorite wife.

(Which, after double-checking, I'm told I definitely can't do.)

Playoff injuries: Would I lie to you?

There are two rules when it comes to injuries at playoff time.

1. Everybody lies
2. If somebody swears they're telling the truth, see rule #1.

Everyone knows this. And yet, every year, the media allows itself to be played by clever coaches who feed them misinformation. Why? Because it gives them a neatly wrapped plot line to bang out a few stories with.

Let's look at the arguably the biggest injury story heading into this year's playoffs: Daniel Alfredsson.

To review, Alfredsson is KO'ed by an open ice hit from Mark Bell. The next day, Sens coach Bryan Murray immediately announces the Alfredsson has knee and neck injuries, and will be out for two weeks. Later, Murray hints that Alfredsson could be back for later rounds, but is definitely, positively out for the Penguins series.

The media dutifully writes down everything Murray says, and repeats it back on your nightly newscast and in the morning paper.

So Bryan Murray, a long-time veteran of NHL wars, sees his best player gets hurt right before the playoffs start, and he graciously volunteers to tell everyone exactly when he'll be back.

He's also kind enough to give specifics about the type of injuries. It's well known that Alfredsson has been dealing with back and hip issues for months, and the hit snaps his head back and leaves him crawling around the ice glassy eyed. But Murray clarifies that no, it's not his back or hip, and it's certainly not a head injury -- it's his knee and neck.

Really.

Now maybe Murray is telling the truth. Maybe he's just an honest guy, and he feels that personal integrity is more important than winning.

Or... maybe he's full of it. Maybe "two weeks" and "knee and neck" are just the latest in the proud history of playoff smokescreens.

And if so, Sens fans have to wonder: did Murray lie on the high side, or the low? Is he covering up for an Alfredsson injury that's more serious than he's letting on? Or is he setting the stage for the captain's dramatic "early" return?

Meanwhile in Pittsburgh, the storyline has been all about the Penguins resting Sidney Crosby in the season finale.The media has been breathlessly speculating about the Penguins' motive, and have concluded that they must have tanked the final game so that they could play the Senators and avoid the Flyers.

Really.

Just so we're clear, we're all supposed to think the Penguins are eager to play the defending conference champions, the team that happened to eliminate them easily last year. And they're trembling at the thought of playing the Flyers -- the same team that everyone was picking to miss the post-season a few days ago, and who recently lost back-to-back playoff atmosphere games to Toronto.

And in order to arrange this favorable matchup, they tanked the last game of the season by sitting out their best player, while leaving all their other good players in the lineup, re-inserting Gary Roberts, and also starting their first-string goaltender.

This makes sense to everyone?

Isn't there a simpler explanation? Like, let's say, Crosby still isn't fully recovered from his ankle injury and needed the extra time to try to get healthy.

That would seem like a big story, no? If the best player in the league was entering the playoffs at less than 100%, we'd want to know the details. How bad is he hurt? What's the risk of re-injury. When would he be fully recovered?

But no, Crosby says he's fine. And he wouldn't lie about something like this, so the media runs with the tanking angle.

OK, fine. I'll play along. Crosby's fine. Alfredsson will be back in exactly two weeks, once his knee and neck feel better.

Just remind me to act surprised when we find out the truth.

What would it cost the Leafs to trade up to #1?

According to the Toronto Sun, Cliff Fletcher recently raised the idea of trading up at the draft, including the possibility of moving all the way up to #1.

Great idea. But what would it cost?

Impossible to know for sure, of course. For one, there’s nothing to suggest the Lightning will even make the pick available. If a bidding war developed, who knows where the final price could wind up.

But just for fun, let's see if we come up with an educated guess. If the Leafs wanted to trade up to #1 overall, what kind of offer would it take to get in the door?

NFL fans will recognize this chart, which outlines the approximate values for draft picks in a given year. (If you already know what the NFL Trade Chart is and want to skip to the part about how the Leafs and Stamkos, click here.)

The values start at 3,000 for the top pick and declines for each subsequent picks. The drop from the first pick to the second is steep, the drop from second to third slightly less so, and so on until later rounds when the point values decline slowly.

This makes sense -- the difference between one or two picks is enormous at the top of a draft, gets less important as the draft moves on, and all but washes out by the end. Math fans will recognize the points distribution as resembling (although not directly based on) a power law graph.

The chart is an approximation -- it isn't specific to any particular year or draft. It goes without saying that the value of a pick, especially one at the top of the first round, will fluctuate year-to-year depending on who is available. The #1 overall pick in Sidney Crosby's draft year was worth a lot more than in Patrick Stefan's. But “The Chart” as its known in NFL draft circles, often ends up being surprisingly accurate. More than a few recent NFL draft day trades have been made that matched perfectly based on chart value.

And while The Chart was designed for the NFL, it can be applied to other sports as well, at least as a starting point. Keep in mind that both the NFL and NHL have seven round drafts and a similar number of teams (32 vs 30), so the values will fit relatively well.

So what does The Chart say it would cost the Leafs to move up? Let's take a look.

The #1 overall pick is assigned a value of 3,000 points. The Leafs hold the seventh pick, which is valued at 1,500. So we'll start our offer there, and we're already halfway home.

Now it gets tricky. The Leafs don't own their second round pick this year -- it went to Phoenix is the Yanic Perrault trade. I'll pause here so you can curse JFJ and punch yourself in the temple a few times.

They do own the Penguins second rounder, thanks to Fletcher's Hal Gill trade. That would be the #57 pick if the draft was held today, although it could shift depending on who wins the Cup. For sake of argument let's call it #57, which gives it a value of 330 points.

So far our offer includes our top two picks, and we're not even close to fair value -- just 1,830 total, well short of the 3,000 we need. The Leafs third round pick will only carry a value in the 230 range, so clearly we're not going to get far by adding more picks. In fact, the Leafs could package every pick they own and it still wouldn't get them to fair value according to The Chart.

What about trading a pick from future seasons? That's a possibility. But keep in mind that the rule-of-thumb for draft picks is that a pick loses one round of value for each year in the future you go. That means that a 2009 second rounder would only be worth the equivalent of a 2008 third rounder. We're getting into diminishing returns here.

The bottom line is that if we want to make this deal happen, we're going to need to go out and get more picks.

So let's try that. If the Leafs could acquire a mid- to late-round pick in the first, their chances start to look better. For sake of argument, let's target the #22 pick (currently held by the Rangers, but again subject to change).

Who could the Leafs deal for a pick in that range? Tough call. Bryan McCabe and Darcy Tucker sure aren't getting it done. Pavel Kubina might have at the trade deadline, but probably not now. On the other hand, Alex Steen might fetch a late first rounder, and Nik Antropov would be a good candidate as well assuming his knee is OK.

Let's pull the trigger for that #22 pick, which The Chart values at 780 points. That brings us to 2,610 points. We're just 390 points short of fair value now.

That's the equivalent of a mid-second rounder, which the Leafs don't have. So you're looking at moving another player off the roster. As a ballpark, players on the current roster who could fetch a second rounder would probably includes guys like Ponikoravsky, or maybe Ian White.

So based on The Chart and our imaginary wheeling and dealing, here's what that trade for the #1 overall pick would look like.

To Toronto: #1 overall pick
To Tampa Bay: #7 overall, #22 overall (at a cost of Alex Steen or Nik Antropov), the #51 pick (cost: Ian White or Alex Ponikoravsky), and Pittsburgh's #57 pick

Of course, there would be other ways to make a deal work. Tomas Kaberle has plenty of trade value, for example -- find a way to work him in and you're going to make your job easier. There's also the possibility of players coming back to Toronto in a deal, additional teams becoming involved, etc.

But at least we have a starting point. Two first rounders, and two seconds. That's two good young players off the roster, and no picks in between #1 and the early third round. And my gut tells me that this offer, while in the ballpark, wouldn't be enough to close a deal.

What do you think? Too much to give up? Not enough? Would you make the deal?

How we can make this up to Sens fans

As some readers know, I'm based in Ottawa. So when something interesting happens between the Leafs and Senators, I feel uniquely qualified to offers some perspective.

First things first: I actually like Daniel Alfredsson. I think he gets a bad rap from Leaf fans. He's a great player and a hard worker, he generally plays clean, and the fact that he's been booed by Leaf fans ever since his fake stick-throw has always seemed silly to me. While guys like Spezza and Heatley float their way through most games, Alfredsson gives an honest effort every night.

It's no big secret that Alfredsson has been playing hurt during the second half with hip and back problems, and that's been the biggest non-goaltending reason the Senators' collapse. If he's ruled out for the first round, the Sens are screwed. The Leafs said they wanted to eliminate the Senators from playoff contention last night, and they may have done it.

So as you'd expect, Ottawa fans have already gathered the torches and pitchforks. Government sub-committees are being formed to examine the problem. Cars around town have their ridiculous Senators window flags lowered to half-mast. And Sens fans want somebody to pay.

And this puts them right in their comfort zone. Sens fans may not be especially loud, and they may still rely on the scoreboard and PA announcer to tell them when to cheer. But when it comes to demanding suspensions Ottawa fans are the best in the league by a longshot.

Sens fans have yet to see any incident involving one of their own players going down that did not warrant a swift and serious suspension. Even those most innocent scrum -- recall Tie Domi's facewash on Magnus Arvedson -- deserves immediate action from the league. Sens fans will light up the radio call-in lines for days, write mouth-frothing blog posts, and hold midnight candlelight vigils until justice is done.

Never mind that Mark Bell's hit was virtually identical to Chris Neil's hit on Chris Drury last year, which Sens fans swore was squeaky clean. This is completely different, because this time it's their guy who's down. (And besides, Bell's hit didn't give Alfredsson any time to react. Neil's hit was clean because he was nice enough to wait an extra few seconds.)

As Toronto fans, I don't think we should take any special joy in Alfredsson's injury. Whether he misses one game or one month, it won't change the fact that the Maple Leafs' season was another embarrassing writeoff. Seeing a rival team's fanbase feel as miserable and hopeless as we do shouldn't bring much comfort.

We should be looking for a way to cheer up Ottawa fans.

So here's my proposal: Let's tell Ottawa fans that Mark Bell has been sentenced to six months in jail for hitting Daniel Alfredsson.

Think about it. Sens fans don't really follow the day-to-day news for other teams, so I think we can get away with this. Tell any Senator you know that Bell is heading to the slammer to pay for his crimes. Solemnly tell them that you sincerely hope he will learn the error of his ways.

When TSN runs a story on Bell reporting to prison in a few weeks, Ottawa fans will nod happily (although a few will insist he should have got a year). Then they'll go back to shovelling their roof and trying to figure out which pothole their car fell into.

Everybody wins. Leaf Nation, let's make it happen.

April Fools - NHL style

Today is April Fools day. We know hockey players love a good laugh, so in the spirit of the occasion I've prepared some suggested practical jokes that various Leafs and other NHLers can play today. No need to thank me, boys, it's my gift to you.

Kyle Wellwood - Between periods, don Timbits jersey and sneak into intermission youth hockey game. Attempt to throw first bodycheck of career. Fail.

Sean Avery - Just for today, use funny smiley faces instead of zeroes on all personal cheques written to prostitutes.

Ray Emery - Perform entire post-game interview with powdered donut on upper lip. Keep asking increasingly uncomfortable Ottawa media what they're looking at.

Mats Sundin - Call Cliff Fletcher. Explain that, on second thought, you will accept a trade if it's not too late. Hang up. Giggle.

Phoenix Coyotes - Repeatedly ask assistant coach Rick Tocchet how his March Madness bracket is looking.

Pierre McGuire - Spend day making and distributing photocopies of "McGuire's Monster".

Paul Maurice - Tell Andrew Raycroft he gets to play tonight. Watch how excited he gets. Look, he's even putting on his equipment and everything!

Alexander Ovechkin - On first shift of the game, intentionally hit both posts to give goalie fleeting sense of hope before immediately scoring on rebound.

Jeremy Roenick - Nothing. His focus is on winning, not cheap antics that serve no purpose other than calling attention to himself.

Peter Forsberg - Play hilarious joke on referee by falling down immediately every time you're touched.

Brian Campbell - When asked if you prefer living in San Jose to Buffalo, pretend to have to think about it for a few seconds.

Carlo Colaiacovo - When asked "How are you?", reply "Fine".

Dominek Hasek - Spend entire day speaking weird moon-man language that nobody can understand.

George Parros - Wear ridiculous novelty moustache over top of ridiculous real moustache.

Edmonton Oilers - Print playoff tickets.

Oli Jokinnen - Leave note in Richard Zednik's locker reading "Next time, I finish the job".

Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley - Play hard on opening shift tonight. Go into corners. Fight through traffic. Earn paychecks. Get back to bench, turn to fans, and say "no, just kidding".

Bryan McCabe - Briefly defy direct order from wife. Immediately apologize and assure her it will not happen again.