New York state of maligned: Who has it worse this year, the Sabres or the Rangers?

It hasn’t been a great start to the season in the state of New York. How bad has it been? Bad enough that today’s post is a “Which team in the state has it worst?”, and we’re not even including the ones that’s only won 13 of their 35 games under the new coach who was supposed to turn things around. Sorry, Islanders fans, you get the bronze medal of misery. Stop being such overachievers if you want to be included next time.

Instead, today’s post is Sabres vs. Rangers. The simple question: Whose season has been worse? The slightly less simple but more accurate question: Is it possible that anyone can compete with what’s going on in Buffalo right now?

I’m not sure that it is, but the Rangers are our best contender, at least until Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller becomes the first teammates in NHL history to drop the gloves with each other off an opening faceoff. So we’re going to limit ourselves to these two teams, and try to answer the question using a highly calibrated scientific method of me randomly coming up with an unlucky 13 categories and seeing where it leads us.

Sabres or Rangers, who you got? For your sake, let’s hope it’s neither, but let’s dive in.

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The Bizarro-meter’s Eastern Conference offseason rankings

We’ve fired up the bizarro-meter for our annual attempt to figure out which NHL teams had the strangest offseason. Not the best or the worst or the busiest, mind you, but just the strangest.

Yesterday, we looked at the Western Conference, with top scores going to Golden Knights and Blackhawks, and the buyout-happy Minnesota Wild leading the way with a score of 8.6. Can anyone from the East compete with that score? [Remembers what the East teams were up to this year.] Yeah, I feel like a few of them can, but let’s see where this goes…

Atlantic Division

Tampa Bay Lightning

The offseason so far: We knew that cap Armageddon was coming, and it wasn’t pretty. The Lightning lost an entire line in Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, plus David Savard and Tyler Johnson. They offset those losses with a few cheap veteran signings, highlighted by Corey Perry, but overall it was a whole lot of talent hitting the road.

But their strangest story was: Losing all those good players and still looking like every bit like an elite Cup-worthy roster. These guys are annoying.

Bizarro-meter ranking: 2.5/10. Newsworthy, sure, but not especially bizarre. Maybe the only weird part for Julien BriseBoise is that he didn’t have to do this last year.

Detroit Red Wings

The offseason so far: It was basically the Alex Nedeljkovic trade and then a handful of depth moves.

But their strangest story was: If Nedeljkovic turns out to be the answer in goal, Steve Yzerman will have added a key piece at a low price.

Bizarro-meter ranking: 3.4/10. Yzerman continues his slow-but-steady rebuild. Every year, we say that he’ll eventually have to get more aggressive, but apparently that point hasn’t arrived yet. The Wings are on track, but it’s hard to see how they’ll be all that much better this year unless Nedeljkovic goes full superstar.

Florida Panthers

The offseason so far: The big news was landing Sam Reinhart from the Sabres at a reasonable price. They lost Chris Driedger and Alex Wennberg to Seattle, the former through the expansion draft and the latter as a UFA, and also said goodbye to veteran defensemen Keith Yandle and Anton Stralman.

But their strangest story was: The Panthers once again losing two good players to an expansion team was pretty funny after the whole Vegas disaster, even though they pretty much played this one fine.

Bizarro-meter ranking: 4.1/10. It feels like this could be nearing make-or-break time in Florida, with Aleksander Barkov in the last year of his deal and Jonathan Huberdeau a year behind him, so maybe there’s an argument that the Panthers should have been more aggressive. But they landed a big player and didn’t lose anyone crucial, so they should be better.

Boston Bruins

The offseason so far: The Bruins didn’t pull off any blockbuster moves, but they certainly churned through a big chunk of the roster, with lots of names moving in and out. The biggest change is in goal, where Linus Ullmark takes over from Tuukka Rask, at least until we know if and when Rask is coming back. They signed Nick Foligno but lost David Krejci, who was more important than most of us gave him credit for. And they re-signed deadline acquisition Taylor Hall to a fairly reasonable deal.

But their strangest story was: Probably the whole Rask/Ullmark thing, since it feels like we could be headed for anything from Rask being done in the NHL to him returning midway through the season to reclaim his starter’s job (at which point Ullmark’s contract feels onerous).

Bizarro-meter ranking: 5.2/10. The Bruins were busy, and it’s rare to see a contender have his much uncertainty about their goaltending heading into a season, but nothing they did seemed especially surprising under the circumstances.

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Playing “What if?” with four of the cap era’s biggest free agency decisions

We’re over a week into the free agency period, which means most of the big decisions have already been made. And we’ve seen plenty. The Canadiens chose to try an offer sheet on Sebastian Aho, and the Hurricanes chose to match. Artemi Panarin chose the Rangers over the Islanders and Blue Jackets. The Panthers chose to give $70 million to a goaltender. And the Predators chose to finally do whatever it took to land Matt Duchene, even if it meant giving up P.K. Subban.

Will some of those decisions turn out to be mistakes? Probably. That’s the beauty of this time of year. The GMs, owners, players and agents make the best choices they can, and the rest of us get to watch and see how it all turns out.

That’s always been the fun part for me, because I love a good round of “what if?” I mean, I really love it. I’m the guy who once wrote an entire alternate history of the NHL based on the Tom Kurvers trade never happening. I may have a problem. But I’m betting at least a few of you are right there with me.

So today, let’s look back on four key free agency-related scenarios from the salary cap era, and how history may have changed if they played out differently. As we’ll see, the decisions that get made at this time of year can have profound and sometimes unexpected impacts – not just on the teams and players involved, but on what does (and doesn’t) happen around the league as a result.

2006: What if the Senators choose Zdeno Chara over Wade Redden?

The situation: One year into the cap era, the Senators were Cup contenders who’d just finished the 2005-06 season with the best record in the East. But they were faced with a tricky offseason dilemma. Each of their two best defensemen, Wade Redden and Zdeno Chara, were on the brink of unrestricted free agency. And the team decided that they only had the budget and cap space to re-sign one of them.

So who would it be? Both players were coming off excellent seasons; Chara had finished fourth in Norris voting, while Redden was fifth. Chara was a rare combination of size and skill who’d taken a while to find his game in the NHL but had developed into one of the best defensemen in the league since being traded to Ottawa, having been named a first-team all-star in 2004. Redden hadn’t quite hit those heights but owned a longer track record, having been a consistent presence on the Ottawa blueline for a decade. Along with Daniel Alfredsson, he was the face of the franchise.

You can pick one. Who do you go with?

What happened: The decision went down to the wire, but ultimately the Senators chose Redden, re-signing him on the eve of free agency to a two-year extension that carried a $6.5 million cap hit. Chara became a UFA, and quickly signed a five-year deal with the Bruins with a $7.5 million cap hit.

Needless to say, it all worked out brilliantly for the Bruins. Chara has had 13 years and counting in Boston; he’s been a postseason all-star five times, won a Norris and been a finalist four other times, and led the team to a Stanley Cup in 2011. He’s almost certainly the greatest free agent signing of the cap era, and maybe even of all-time.

Redden finished out his two-year extension in Ottawa, playing reasonably well if not quite at an all-star level, before needing a new deal again in 2008. This time, the Senators couldn’t keep him, and even tried to get him to waive his no-trade clause on multiple occasions. He refused, denting his reputation with some Senators fans in the process, and eventually signed a six-year contract with the Rangers on the first day of free agency. That deal ended up being a bust, and Redden spent much of it in the AHL.

At the time, it had seemed like a tough call. In hindsight, it couldn’t have been more lopsided. And the Senators chose wrong.

But what if… : First things first. A lot of the “Redden vs. Chara” narrative has always felt a little too convenient. We don’t know a lot of what happened behind the scenes, including whether Chara ever really wanted to stay in Ottawa in the first place. It’s possible that the Senators just re-signed the player who wanted to stay to the best deal they could, and the rest of it is just a dramatic storyline slapped on top of some fairly standard cap management.

But that’s no fun. So let’s pretend that the Senators really were faced with an either/or choice. What if they’d chosen Chara, on the same sort of five-year deal he got from Boston?

Well, the first repercussion is that a big chunk of their fan base is furious. That’s the part of the story that gets skipped over these days, but as a hockey fan living in Ottawa at the time, I can tell you that it’s hard to overstate just how popular Redden was. He had his occasional detractors, like any player. But for most of his time as a Senator he was the golden boy, and the fans didn’t want to see him go.

Are the Senators better with Chara instead, even at a higher salary? In hindsight, absolutely, although it’s worth remembering that Redden helped them get to the Stanley Cup final in 2007. Do they win that final with Chara in the lineup? They might. And they almost definitely manage more than the two playoff game wins they had over the following four years. Could they have kept Chara on another deal beyond that? That gets dicey, but even if he’d bolted after five years, they’d have still come out ahead compared to two years of Redden.

Meanwhile, the Bruins lose out on their captain, and probably their 2011 Cup too. More bad news: they would have had an extra $7.5 million to spend in that 2006 offseason. Do they throw it at another blueliner, like Ed Jovanovski or Pavel Kubina? Or maybe one of the big forwards like Alex Tanguay or Martin Havlat? None of those options look great in hindsight. Take Chara off the market in 2006, and the next decade-plus of Bruins history starts to look very different.

On that note, here’s one more what-if to consider: What if Chara had hit the market, but chosen not to sign in Boston? According to reports, the other main bidder was the Los Angeles Kings. Would Chara have been as dominant in Los Angeles as he was in Boston? Probably. But that might not have been a good thing. If Chara improve the rebuilding Kings by just a few wins by Year 2, that moves them out of the second-overall pick in the 2008 draft, and probably makes Drew Doughty an Atlanta Thrasher. Do the Kings win two Cups with Chara instead of Doughty? And if you want to really get crazy, do the Thrashers improve enough after adding Doughty with the second-overall pick that they’re not in Winnipeg today? Bruins fans are happy that we never got to find out.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Building a roster of the cap era’s worst July 1 signings

So the first day of free agency has come and gone. How did your team do?

Probably not well. If history is any guide, your team either missed out on the big signings, or paid way too much to get in on them. If we’ve learned anything about July 1 in the salary cap era, it’s that jumping in with both feet on Day 1 of the open market can lead to a lot of regret. There are bargains, sure, and occasionally a team will sign a big-dollar deal that works out great. But those are exceptions. Most of the time, July 1 is the day that GMs do their very worst work.

That feels like something worth celebrating. So as we recover from yesterday’s chaos and try to digest all the money NHL GMs just threw around, let’s look back on the mistakes of the past by building a full roster out of some of the worst July 1 UFA deals of the cap era.

A couple of quick ground rules:

– We’re only looking for UFA deals that were signed on July 1. That rules out a few names you might be expecting to see here, like New York’s Brad Richards or Calgary’s James Neal (both of whose deals came a few days into free agency) and Philadelphia’s Ilya Bryzgalov (who was actually acquired in a trade and signed before he reached UFA status, but still needs to be mentioned here because that was hilarious).

– We’re judging signings based on a mix of the reaction at the time and how the deal looks with the benefit of hindsight. Because of that second part, we’re going to try really hard not to include any of this year’s signing, although (double-checks yesterday’s list) yeah no promises.

– The 2013 offseason schedule was thrown off a few days by the lockout, so for that season only “July 1” is actually July 5.

All contract information, including signing date and cap hit percentage, is from the CapFriendly signing database. Salaries are average annual value; “cap hit” is the percentage of that season’s cap.

As you might expect, there’s going to be some overlap with our worst possible cap team exercise from last season. But as bad as that roster was, this one might be even more depressing. You’ve been warned. Let’s get started.

First line

Scott Gomez, Rangers, 2007: 7 x $7.357 million, 14.63% cap hit

This deal seemed steep at the time, and got far worse over the years. It wasn’t the complete disaster you might remember it as – Gomez was actually pretty good in his first year in New York, and nearly hit the 60-point mark in the next two. And of course, the Rangers managed to somehow unload the deal onto the Canadiens before it really blew up. But once it did, man, it was awful. When you have your own website to track whether you’ve scored, that’s bad. When that site doesn’t change for over a year, that’s worse.

David Clarkson, Maple Leafs, 2013: 7 x $5.25 million, 8.16% cap hit

“I’m not worried about six or seven right now,” Leafs GM Dave Nonis infamously said when signing the deal. “I’m worried about one. And Year 1, I know we’re going to have a very good player.”

Nope. Clarkson was a miss almost immediately, in part due to an ill-advised suspension that delayed his regular season debut. To be fair, many Leafs fans loved the deal at the time, and some of the local media went nuts for it. Others immediately saw the disaster that was coming, including a young Globe and Mail beat writer who I hear went on to work at some website.

While it was never from lack of trying, Clarkson never clicked in Toronto, and didn’t even last two seasons before the team ate millions of dollars to ship him to Columbus. He hasn’t played since 2015-16 and almost certainly never will again, but his contract is still kicking around the league – partly because Nonis decided to make it virtually buyout proof.

Milan Lucic, Oilers, 2016: 7 x $6 million, 8.22% cap hit

Three years after watching the Leafs throw seven years at an aging power forward because of heart and grit and compete level, the Oilers apparently figured they could do even better. Lucic at least gave them one decent year, which is one more than the Leafs ever got from Clarkson. But unlike the Leafs, the Oilers haven’t yet figured out a way to wiggle out from under this contract, despite rumors that they’re desperately trying.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Grab bag: When NHL free agency goes bad

In the Friday Grab Bag:
- Connor McDavid is going to sign for a ton of money tomorrow. Should he have taken less to help his team win?
- The NHL's free agent negotiation window is weird
- An obscure player that was born the day Canada turned 100
- The week's three comedy stars
- And we go back ten years in the YouTube section to revisit the day that NHL free agency went bad

>> Read the full post at Vice Sports

The worst free agent signings of the last two decades

Free agency opens on Friday, as teams will be officially allowed to sign players on the open market, and fans around the league should be excited.

No, wait, excited isn’t the right word. What’s the one I’m looking for? Terrified. That’s the one. You should all be terrified.

That’s because, despite the occasional success story, NHL teams tend to be terrible at signing free agents. They can’t help themselves. And it rarely takes long for the initial excitement of a big signing to give way to the realization that a team has just handed out too much money for way too many years.

As we count down to Friday’s deadline, let’s take some time to look back at some cautionary examples of how quickly a big deal can go bad. Here are my picks for the five worst unrestricted free agency signings of the last two decades.

5. Teemu Selanne and Paul Kariya, Colorado, 2003

The deal: The two friends (and former Ducks teammates) shopped themselves as a tandem deal, eventually signing cheap one-year contracts with the powerhouse Avalanche. How cheap? Selanne took a pay cut to $5.8 million after declining a $6.5 million option in San Jose. But that was nothing compared to Kariya, who took just $1.2 million after making $10 million the year before in Anaheim. Both players could have made much more elsewhere, but they were chasing their first Stanley Cup rings, and joining Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg and an already loaded Avalanche team seemed like the best way to do it.

Why it made sense at the time: Are you kidding? Go back and re-read those details – it was foolproof. When the deals were announced, hockey fans everywhere pretty much threw up their hands and conceded the 2004 Cup to the Avalanche.

How it ended: In what may stand as the NHL’s greatest example of a can’t miss move somehow missing, both Selanne and Kariya were busts in Colorado and the Avalanche lost in the second round. That latter part wasn’t a huge shock – while the Avs still had most of their big names from their Cup years, they’d lost Patrick Roy to retirement in the offseason, and winning a title with David Aebischer never felt like a safe bet. But the real surprises were Kariya and Selanne, neither of whom cracked 40 points. When Steve Konowalchuk is outscoring both of your sure-thing signings, it’s safe to say that something has gone terribly wrong.

4. Ville Leino, Buffalo, 2011

The deal: Coming off a career-best 53 points, the 27-year-old winger landed a six-year, $27 million deal from the Sabres.

Why it made sense at the time: After years of drifting into small market status, the Sabres had a rich new owner and were ready to spend some of Terry Pegula’s money. (They also gave Christian Ehrhoff a 10-year, $40-million deal.) Leino had just posted a career year while helping the Flyers make it to the Cup final, and it was time for the Sabres to make some noise.

How it ended: Leino was a massive bust in Buffalo; his eight goals and 25 points in year one ended up being by far his most productive season as a Sabre. He missed almost all of year two of the deal, then went the entire 2013-14 season without scoring a single goal before being mercifully bought out.

(By the way, Leino wasn’t close to the worst contract handed out during the summer of 2011. That honor would go to a deal you’re probably expecting to see on this list: Ilya Bryzgalov’s $51-million deal with the Flyers that led to a massive buyout just two years later. But that one wasn’t technically a free agency deal, since the Flyers had acquired his negotiating rights and signed the deal before he reached the open market on July 1. )

>> Read the full post at The Hockey News

How to buy out a player: The NHL's handy form

Yashin always wore a turtle-neck. Or, as
hockey players call it, a Carcillo-neck.

It's the second week of August, which means there's not much news on the NHL transaction page these days. The blockbuster trades have already been made, free agency has slowed to a crawl, and most teams seem satisfied to wait out the rest of the offseason without making any significant moves.

But there is one exception: With arbitration hearings now wrapped up, some teams now have a second opportunity to buy out unwanted players. This year's buyout periods have already claimed players such as Chris Drury and Colin White. But while fans have become used to the annual news of offseason buyouts, few know the behind-the-scenes process for making them happen.

As it turns out, it's not all that complicated. All a general manager has to do is fill out a simple one-page form, and luckily my spies at the league office were able to provide me with a copy.

***

Dear NHL general manager,

Congratulations on your decision to buy out a player. This process provides an excellent opportunity to correct your past mistakes, or at the very least spread the cap hit out into future seasons when, let's be honest, it will be some other guy's problem.

Please complete the form below and submit it to the league office. Note that the buyout will not be official until the league has approved it, so please refrain from setting the content of the player's locker on fire until then.

Player's first name: _________________
Player's last name: _________________
Player's nickname that you call him publicly: _________________
Player's nicknames that you call him under your breath every time he touches the puck:
_________________
_________________
_________________ (use the back of the application form if you need more room)

The player's current annual cap hit: $ ____________

Wow…. Really?
( ) Sigh
( ) Next question please.

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Where will Brad Richards sign?

Free agency is just days away, and there's little question about who the big name is. Brad Richards of the Dallas Stars is easily the best player available, and is expected to receive substantial offers from several big market teams. Where will he end up signing? It's all a mystery.

Or maybe not. Fans that have paid attention to recent free agent patterns may already have a sense of how all this will turn out.

In fact, Bloge Salming and I can picture it now...

RSS readers, click here.

You can find more Bloge Salming videos at Houses of the Hockey and at blogesalming.com.

You can download an mp3 of this song here.

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NHL free agency through the years

With free agency season upon us, all eyes are focused on this year's crop of UFAs. Who'll get the best deal? Who'll bolt for the KHL? Which teams will improve, and which will be left on the sidelines?

We'll know soon enough. But in the meantime, let's remind ourselves of how unpredictable free agency can be by looking back at some notable signings from recent years.

Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Vancouver, 2009 - After signing a last-minute extension with the Canucks, the twins' plans to celebrate with a slice of that big cake that showed up on their doorstep that morning are ruined at 12:01 when Brian Burke awkwardly pops out of it.

Colton Orr, Toronto, 2009 - Orr becomes one of the highest paid enforcers in league history, thanks to a deal with Toronto that pays him a quarter for every time he punches Matt Carkner in the face.

Marion Gaborik, New York, 2009 - The Rangers sign the oft-injured star to a $37.5M deal. While other teams were willing to match the money, the Rangers were the only team to meet Gaborik's demands of a "no playoff-clinching shooutout" clause.

Brian Campbell & Cristobal Huet, Chicago, 2008 - The Blackhawks sign the pair to long-term contracts that most observers feel are significantly overpriced. While many fans fear the contracts will cripple the Hawks, the front office assures fans that the team will be able to stay under the salary cap thanks to careful roster management, judicious use of buyouts, or at least some other team eventually hiring Rick Dudley.

Thomas Vanek, Edmonton, 2007 - After an 84-point season, Vanek signs a $50M offer sheet with the Oilers which the Sabres are forced to match. After realizing how close he came to spending the rest of his career in Edmonton, a shaken Vanek vows to never risk attracting the Oilers' attention again by spending the next several seasons disguised as a second-liner.

Gary Roberts, Toronto, 2000 - Roberts agrees to terms with the Leafs, choosing their contract of just under $3M a season over the Senators' offer of "Oh god, sir, please don't hurt us, take whatever you want and just leave us alone".

Chris Drury and Scott Gomez, New York, 2007 - Upon learning that critics are calling the signings the worst free agent contracts that are even theoretically possible, Glen Sather mutters "we'll see about that" and circles Wade Redden's name with a yellow highlighter.

Sean Avery, Dallas, 2008 - Upon signing Avery, Stars general manager Brett Hull tells him "Hey, I know you're better known as a Ranger, but we don't mind picking up other teams' sloppy seconds. Ha ha! Um, why are you writing that down?"

Peter Forsberg, Philadelphia, 2005 - Coming out of the NHL lockout, Forsberg shuns the Avalanche to sign with the Flyers. "I really wanted to make the right decision," Forsberg tells reporters, "because I know that the experience of being an unrestricted free agent is one I'll only ever get to have once, maybe twice, per year, for the rest of my career."

Jason Blake, Toronto, 2007 - The Leafs agree to terms with Blake early in the day, although the actual contract signing is delayed several hours due to technical problems after it's discovered that John Ferguson Jr. had earlier tried to fax himself a grilled cheese sandwich.

2009-2010 Season Preview: The Atlantic Division

As we count down the final days leading up to the 2009-10 regular season, let's take a look at each of the 30 teams with the official DGB Season Preview. Today, we look at the Atlantic Division.

New York Rangers

The good: There's a better-than-average chance that Donald Brashear will cripple Chris Drury in practice, saving the team valuable cap space.
The bad: Wade Redden reported to camp still alive.
Biggest question mark: Aren't you kind of hoping Sean Avery knocks out Kyle Okposo this year just so we can all make "sloppy seconds" jokes?
Fearless forecast: Marion Gaborik will bring the sort of dynamic offensive threat that the team hasn't had since... wait, why is he limping off the ice?

New Jersey Devils

The good: Wisely maintained team chemistry by not bringing in any big name off-season acquisitions, even though almost half their good players left.
The bad: Sure, Jacques Lemaire's offense will be fun to watch at first, but can the Devils maintain that sort of breakneck page all season long?
Biggest question mark: Everyone makes such a big deal about oversized shoulder pads, but why doesn't anybody ever complain about the ever-growing stomach padding Martin Brodeur is apparently using?
Fearless forecast: You won't watch a single one of their games all season.

Philadelphia Flyers

The good: If 35-year old Chris Pronger can't lead team to a Stanley Cup this year, no problem -- they still have him for another six years after that!
The bad: Continuing a proud tradition of tough guy Flyers goalies, Ray Emery has already been beaten into a bloody pulp by Felix Potvin.
Biggest question mark: Will one of the Flyers commit a horrifying act of violence that ruins the Winter Classic, or will it be more than one?
Fearless forecast: Will almost certainly be one of the top two teams in the entire state.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The good: Aren't scheduled for another blatant tank job for another three or four years.
The bad: Are at a tremendous disadvantage in an Olympic year in terms of fatigue, given that every single player on the roster is good enough to make an Olympic team.
Biggest question mark: Given that they're almost a sure thing to make the post-season, wouldn't it be a good idea for Sidney Crosby to start growing his playoff beard now?
Fearless forecast: I will continue to receive ten breathless e-mails a week that contain shocking photos of the Penguin players sitting around holding a trophy.

New York Islanders

The good: Franchise reputation is already dead and buried, which is a nice change since it marks the first ever case of this ownership group being able to get a shovel into the ground.
The bad: Have six or seven good players, all of whom are goalies.
Biggest question mark: Which line will Taylor Hall play on?
Fearless forecast: Scott Gordon eventually throws a rock through the poster of Raquel Welch in John Tavares' locker, revealing a tunnel to Toronto hidden behind it.