Weekend rankings: Changes in Toronto, questions in Montreal and a new/old team takes over top spot

Screw it, I’m moving the Lightning back into the No. 1 spot.

I’ve been mulling it over for a few weeks now. They started the season in the top spot before yielding it the Bruins, Capitals and Blues. I kept the Lightning in the top five for two months, even as they struggled and plenty of angry readers insisted their team was clearly better. But I could only hold on for so long, and eventually ran out of room for them in December. That lasted for a month before they forced their way back into the top five.

And now, after yet another week of running the table, they’ve made it all the way back to the top.

I can anticipate three main objections here.

Objection No. 1: Hey, what about the Bruins? Let’s start with the toughest one to argue my way out of. The Lightning are surging, having won six straight. But the Bruins had also won six in a row before yesterday’s loss in Detroit. They’re still five points up on the Lightning (who have two games in hand), so the division remains theirs to lose. If we’re going to put an Atlantic team in the top spot, maybe it should be Boston.

That’s a solid case. But it ignores how red hot the Lightning have been for months now. They haven’t just won six straight, they’ve won 18 of 21, dating back to before Christmas. Hot streaks come and go, but this is something more than that. This is an elite team finding their gear. By comparison, the Bruins have won 13 of 21, which is still pretty impressive but has them losing ground.

We’re getting cute with arbitrary endpoints there, but you get the idea. The Lightning are rolling, they have been for a long time, and they’re in every game – you have to go back almost two full months to find a game they lost by more than one goal, not counting empty-netters. And on paper, I just think they’re better than the Bruins, if only slightly. This team didn’t win 62 games last year by accident. When they’re at their best, they’re pretty much unstoppable. And they’ve been at their best for a while now.

Remember, the idea here isn’t to pick who finishes first in the Atlantic. We’re looking for a Cup winner. And even if Tampa does finish second in the division and has to go through Florida or Toronto before facing Boston without home ice, I like their odds. Only one Cup winner in the last six years won their division, so catching Boston isn’t mandatory.

Of course, if we’re talking Cups, we have to address the elephant in the rink …

Objection No. 2: Did you see last year’s playoffs? The Lightning had 62 regular-season wins last year, which was 62 more than they managed in the playoffs. That led to plenty of well-worn stories about how this team isn’t designed to win in the postseason. The Lightning even seemed to be buying into the theory themselves. So why would this year be any different, especially with an even tougher path to the final?

You could argue that the Lightning have changed and that those early-season struggles were a team learning about itself and making the tough changes necessary to win. You could also say that last year was a wakeup call, as a team that had it a little too easy for too long, got cocky and took its eye off the ball. That won’t happen again, because the Lightning learned their lesson.

Maybe. But my answer is that I just don’t buy the narrative. Yes, the playoffs are different than the regular season, but despite what some fans seem to believe, it doesn’t become an entirely different sport. I don’t believe that last year’s Lightning group was somehow fatally flawed, or that they fell victim to some sort of moral failing. Instead, I think they ran into a perfect storm of bad luck and bad timing. Their best defenseman got hurt. Their best player slumped and got suspended. Their goalie went cold. And it all happened against a pretty good team, one that had 98 points, a Vezina winner in net and a bunch of trade deadline reinforcements. It happens.

And it could happen again. The Lightning will face a good team in the first round this year too (and maybe even that same goalie that beat them last time). Key players could get hurt or go cold again. They could lose. If their path to the final goes through Boston and Washington, they probably will lose. That’s life in today’s NHL – every team will probably lose. Nobody’s better than maybe a 20 or 25 percent chance to pull it off. We just have to pick the team with the best chance. Right now, I think that’s the Lightning.

I’m not the only one, which leads to the last objection …

Objection No. 3: What took you so long? Yeah, I’m admittedly not breaking new ground here. It hasn’t exactly been hard to see what was happening in Tampa, and others are ahead of me on declaring them the favorites. Four of us had them ranked first in the most recent power ranking poll, and some of my colleagues never left the bandwagon.

Maybe, more importantly, the oddsmakers have already moved the Lightning into the Cup-favorite spot.

Updated Stanley Cup odds: pic.twitter.com/drXD3GRnFc

— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) February 4, 2020

That’s pretty solid evidence that I’m on the right side of this one, but also that I’m late to the party. Given the alternative, I think I’ll take it.

And of course, if the Lighting fall off now and/or flame out in the playoffs yet again, we’ll all agree to forget this ever happened.

On to what’s left of this week’s rankings …

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed towards a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

Two wins in twelve games for a team that traded for two veteran offensive stars, one of whom can walk as a UFA in July. That’s, uh, not great.

The Coyotes woke up this morning out of playoff position in the Western Conference after a loss in Boston and wins by Winnipeg & Calgary on Saturday. As far as I can tell, that is the first time they have been out of postseason position since Nov. 10. pic.twitter.com/tNMRaJQ8S1

— Craig Morgan (@CraigSMorgan) February 9, 2020

5. Pittsburgh Penguins (34-15-5, +30 true goals differential*) – They’ve won three of four, with the one loss coming to the same Lightning team they get to face tomorrow night. They’re within four points of the Caps in the Metro, and four points up on the surging Blue Jackets.

4. St. Louis Blues (32-15-9, +20) – They continue to spin their wheels, having won just six of fifteen since New Year’s eve. That includes a pair of recent regulation losses to the Jets that have kept Winnipeg alive in the wild-card race, and Saturday’s OT loss to the Stars, which allowed the Avalanche have closed to three points back with two games in hand. The Central is still probably the Blues’ division to lose, but lately, they seem like a team that might be willing to lose it.

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Puck Soup: Rage Against the (Russian) Machine

In this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Alexander Ovechkin chases Wayne Gretzky's goal-scoring record
- The Sabres situation just keeeps getting worse
- The Lightning look unstoppable
- The Leafs and Kings swing a trade
- Ryan gets Rage Against the Machine tickets
- I have to take part in an Oscars quiz, and lots more...

>> Stream it now:

>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.

Grab Bag: Identifying the greatest goal-scorer ever, a weird playoff drought and Darryl Sittler’s 10-point night

In the Friday Grab Bag:
- Is Alexander Ovechkin the great goal-scorer ever? Sizing up some of the contenders for the crown.
- A weird playoff streak involving two Pacific teams
- An obscure player who is Scotty Bowman
- The week's three comedy stars
- And a YouTube look back at Darryl Sittler's 10-point game, 44 years ago tonight

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Sabres fans have lost all hope. Which struggling team’s fan base might be next?

The Buffalo Sabres are coming off one of the worst weeks in recent franchise history. They continued to fade out of the playoff race thanks to a pair of demoralizing losses to bad teams. Their starting goalie got hurt. And then it all blew up thanks to a frustrated radio caller who ripped into the organization from top to bottom. That rant struck a nerve with a long-suffering fan base that seems to have run out of patience.

I’ve been there. As a Leafs fan, I’ve actually been there a few times. There’s a good chance you have too. Whether it’s Toronto fans throwing waffles, Columbus fans holding protests, Vancouver fans chanting for the GM to get fired or Edmonton fans getting lectured about knowing a thing or two about winning, plenty of us know that feeling of hopelessness they’re experiencing in Buffalo right now. It’s not fun.

So who’s next? If the Sabres are all but a lost cause, which team is in danger of being the next to hit a Buffalo-style tipping point, where fan frustration boils over and it starts to feel like there’s no going back without some sort of major reckoning?

Including the Sabres, there are 10 NHL teams who missed the playoffs last year and are currently sitting outside of a spot again this season. That’s not an exhaustive list of fan unrest, as it leaves out places like Nashville, Winnipeg and Toronto where there’s some definite tension, not to mention the ongoing implosion in San Jose. But it’s a solid starting point.

There are three main components of a fan base losing hope, and this year’s Sabres check all three boxes. Their recent history is awful, with eight straight playoff misses and counting. They’ve lost faith in ownership and management, with calls to fire Jason Botterill and plenty of invectives aimed at Terry and Kim Pegula. And they’re wondering about the future, as a so-so prospect pool means the cavalry isn’t exactly on the way. Three-for-three. The Sabres are a mess.

So today, let’s count down those nine other teams using those three criteria – recent history, faith in management and hope for the future, plus a bonus section for any special circumstances – and see if we can figure out which ones are at risk for the next Sabres-style fan base meltdown. We’ll even get some help from the fans themselves, who had plenty to say when I asked about the topic on Twitter earlier this week.

We’ll count them down from nine to one. Let’s get sad.

9. New York Rangers

Recent history: 5/10. They’re on pace to miss the playoffs for a third straight season.

Lack of faith in ownership/management: 5/10. Most of the fan base still seems to believe in Jeff Gorton, and rightly so. This year has been disappointing, but he’s done a good job of mapping out his plan and making sure the fans understand what he’s thinking. The interesting piece here is James Dolan, whose work with the Knicks has seen him widely mocked as one of the very worst owners in the NBA, but who seems to have avoided that reputation on the hockey side, largely by staying out of the way.

Future hopelessness: 3/10. Corey Pronman had them as the No. 1 farm system in the league heading into the season. That was partly based on the excitement over Kaapo Kakko, who hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype in Year 1, and the Lias Andersson situation could be a concern too. But overall, they’re in good shape.

Bonus points: -1 for not being the Knicks. If you have that one sibling who’s a total screwup, you don’t have to do much to look like the good one by comparison.

Tipping point total: 12/30. New York can be a tough market, so when patience starts to run out it could drain down to empty fairly quickly. For now, the Rangers seem fine.

We’re trusting the process here in New York. Team is about where I thought they’d be if not a little better. Division is stacked and I think patience will pay off.

— Adam Salisch (@adamsalisch) February 3, 2020

8. Anaheim Ducks

Recent history: 3/10. This will be their second year outside the playoffs after having made it in six straight seasons. It’s also shaping up to be their first really bad season in a long time; they haven’t finished under 80 points in the cap era.

Lack of faith in ownership/management: 8/10. The Henry Samueli/Bob Murray combo has been in charge for well over a decade now, so patience is wearing thin. Samueli already had to do the disappointed-letter-to-fans thing last year, and you wonder how much more rope Murray gets before something changes at the top.

Future hopelessness: 5/10. It’s a solid group, maybe even a bit better than that. But there’s no sure-thing franchise player on the horizon to take the torch from Ryan Getzlaf.

Bonus points: -1 because I only got a single response from a Ducks fan all week and, well, you’ll see.

Tipping point total: 15/30. There are a surprising number of “Fire Bob Murray” petitions out there, which is a very California way for fans to express their frustration.

I’m a Ducks fan and our fan base is hilariously positive to a fault, most ppl I know who are also Ducks all seem to feel the same, we’re just happy to cheer for our team and try hard🤦‍♂️ I don’t get it we have a insanely chill fan base🤷‍♂️

— Matt Dammann (@MattyDammann) February 4, 2020

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Weekend rankings: Escaping the mushy middle, the Battle of Alberta erupts and Buffalo loses hope

We’re a week clear of the All-Star break, which means we’re officially done with bye weeks for another year. We’re into the homestretch, where seasons are made or lost, and that should mean some movement in the rankings. This week, though, not so much, hopefully for the last time.

We’ve touched on this before, and it’s become a season-wide trend. This time last year, there were only six teams that had yet to appear in either ranking. This season, there are an even dozen. The top five have been stable, with just 11 teams showing up. But the bottom five has been a virtual log jam, with just eight entrants all season long.

What’s the deal? I think there are three options. The first is that I’m bad at this; I’m being overly conservative, too reliant on preconceived expectations and too slow to react to what teams are doing. The second is that I’m actually good at this, and unlike last year I’m not overreacting to short-term streaks and narratives that don’t last. And the third is that this has just been a weird season in the parity era, with even more teams than usual crammed into the middle of the pack. My vote is with option three, but your mileage may vary.

But here’s a more interesting question: Which of those dozen no-shows has the best chance of showing up in the top or bottom five at some point during the rest of the way?

I think we can divide our candidates into four tiers. The first are the teams that could conceivably make a push into the top five by stringing together a few strong weeks down the stretch. The strongest of those nominees are the Stars, who were right around the top five in the standings in terms of total points a few weeks back before cooling slightly. They had a lousy start, nearly cracking the bottom five a few weeks in, which means they’ve been great ever since. If they can make a late run at the Blues on top of the Central, they’ve got a real shot.

If we’re feeling especially optimistic, other candidates to make a case for the top five could include the Canucks and Flames, either of whom could still pull away in the Pacific and maybe the Panthers, who’ve been quietly solidifying their playoff credentials over the last few months (but are stuck in a brutal division and will find it tough to even get home ice, so they’re a serious long shot).

Tier two are the teams who could make a run at the bottom five, and they’re a little easier to find. The Sabres are the obvious candidate, and we’ll have more on them in a bit. The Rangers are right in the same points range, although without as much sky-is-falling momentum. And then there’s the Canadiens, who continue to wallow and have now apparently reached the stage of hopelessness where they’re sending a key piece of the future out of town for a reset.

Tier three are the teams that just seem locked into the middle of the standings. They’re good enough that they’re unlikely to collapse down to the depths, but also don’t seem like threats to shoot up the standings, partly because they’ve already given up too much ground. I’d put the Flyers and Coyotes there, and after some early-season stumbles the Hawks probably deserve a spot too. I’m also going to somewhat hesitantly put the Jets in this tier; despite lots of signs that they’re a bad team being held up by excellent goaltending, they’ve banked enough points that they should be safe barring a total collapse.

That leaves just one team for tier four: The Oilers. I have no idea. Could they win the Pacific going away? Absolutely – they’re playing well lately and they have Connor McDavid. Could they blow a tire and plummet down the standings? Absolutely – they’re the Oilers. I’ve pretty much given up on trying to figure out what this franchise will do. You’re on your own, Edmonton fans.

(And for those about to ask “What about my team …”: The Knights, Hurricanes, Leafs and Predators all cracked the top five in October but not since, while the Avs and Islanders have been in recently. And the Blue Jackets made a single bottom-five appearance in Week 1, the Wild made several in the first half and the Ducks were in just a few weeks back.)

There’s your look at our dirty dozen of season-long ranking no-shows. At least you can’t say we never mentioned you. Now on to the real thing …

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed towards a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

This moment from Saturday night looked like it could have big implications not just for the Rangers, but several potential trade partners on our top five list and beyond:

Kreider’s off to the locker room after Zibanejad’s knee catches Kreider’s head & he collides into the boards. pic.twitter.com/F1qU3V7Fcl

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) February 2, 2020

Early reports are that the injury may not be serious, meaning everyone can breathe a little easier.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins (33-14-5, +31 true goals differential*) – I haven’t been able to get them any higher than fifth yet, but at some point, they may leave me no choice. Yesterday’s win in Washington was impressive and is the kind of statement game you can only have when everyone is giving 100 percent on every play.

OK, fine, almost everyone …

Malkin’s controller got disconnected. pic.twitter.com/GvJSJTdm4M

— DJ Gallo (@DJGalloEtc) February 2, 2020

4. Tampa Bay Lightning (32-15-5, +41) – They’ve rolled off three more wins, although those came during their California road trip. Go pick on someone your own size. This week it’s back home for a bit of a test against the Knights, Penguins and Islanders.

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