Puck Soup: Almost there

On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- One last tour around the league before the season begins on (checks notes) Friday?
- Mathew Barzal signs, Jason Robertson doesn't, Alex DeBrincat maybe does?
- The ads on the boards are animated now
- The Leafs experiment with Marner on defense
- Which 2022 draft picks might make opening night rosters?
- Over/unders on this year's top goal-scorers
- More nonsense from Hockey Canada, Cam Talbot is hurt, Who He Play For? and more...

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Weekend rankings: Escaping the mushy middle, the Battle of Alberta erupts and Buffalo loses hope

We’re a week clear of the All-Star break, which means we’re officially done with bye weeks for another year. We’re into the homestretch, where seasons are made or lost, and that should mean some movement in the rankings. This week, though, not so much, hopefully for the last time.

We’ve touched on this before, and it’s become a season-wide trend. This time last year, there were only six teams that had yet to appear in either ranking. This season, there are an even dozen. The top five have been stable, with just 11 teams showing up. But the bottom five has been a virtual log jam, with just eight entrants all season long.

What’s the deal? I think there are three options. The first is that I’m bad at this; I’m being overly conservative, too reliant on preconceived expectations and too slow to react to what teams are doing. The second is that I’m actually good at this, and unlike last year I’m not overreacting to short-term streaks and narratives that don’t last. And the third is that this has just been a weird season in the parity era, with even more teams than usual crammed into the middle of the pack. My vote is with option three, but your mileage may vary.

But here’s a more interesting question: Which of those dozen no-shows has the best chance of showing up in the top or bottom five at some point during the rest of the way?

I think we can divide our candidates into four tiers. The first are the teams that could conceivably make a push into the top five by stringing together a few strong weeks down the stretch. The strongest of those nominees are the Stars, who were right around the top five in the standings in terms of total points a few weeks back before cooling slightly. They had a lousy start, nearly cracking the bottom five a few weeks in, which means they’ve been great ever since. If they can make a late run at the Blues on top of the Central, they’ve got a real shot.

If we’re feeling especially optimistic, other candidates to make a case for the top five could include the Canucks and Flames, either of whom could still pull away in the Pacific and maybe the Panthers, who’ve been quietly solidifying their playoff credentials over the last few months (but are stuck in a brutal division and will find it tough to even get home ice, so they’re a serious long shot).

Tier two are the teams who could make a run at the bottom five, and they’re a little easier to find. The Sabres are the obvious candidate, and we’ll have more on them in a bit. The Rangers are right in the same points range, although without as much sky-is-falling momentum. And then there’s the Canadiens, who continue to wallow and have now apparently reached the stage of hopelessness where they’re sending a key piece of the future out of town for a reset.

Tier three are the teams that just seem locked into the middle of the standings. They’re good enough that they’re unlikely to collapse down to the depths, but also don’t seem like threats to shoot up the standings, partly because they’ve already given up too much ground. I’d put the Flyers and Coyotes there, and after some early-season stumbles the Hawks probably deserve a spot too. I’m also going to somewhat hesitantly put the Jets in this tier; despite lots of signs that they’re a bad team being held up by excellent goaltending, they’ve banked enough points that they should be safe barring a total collapse.

That leaves just one team for tier four: The Oilers. I have no idea. Could they win the Pacific going away? Absolutely – they’re playing well lately and they have Connor McDavid. Could they blow a tire and plummet down the standings? Absolutely – they’re the Oilers. I’ve pretty much given up on trying to figure out what this franchise will do. You’re on your own, Edmonton fans.

(And for those about to ask “What about my team …”: The Knights, Hurricanes, Leafs and Predators all cracked the top five in October but not since, while the Avs and Islanders have been in recently. And the Blue Jackets made a single bottom-five appearance in Week 1, the Wild made several in the first half and the Ducks were in just a few weeks back.)

There’s your look at our dirty dozen of season-long ranking no-shows. At least you can’t say we never mentioned you. Now on to the real thing …

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed towards a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

This moment from Saturday night looked like it could have big implications not just for the Rangers, but several potential trade partners on our top five list and beyond:

Kreider’s off to the locker room after Zibanejad’s knee catches Kreider’s head & he collides into the boards. pic.twitter.com/F1qU3V7Fcl

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) February 2, 2020

Early reports are that the injury may not be serious, meaning everyone can breathe a little easier.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins (33-14-5, +31 true goals differential*) – I haven’t been able to get them any higher than fifth yet, but at some point, they may leave me no choice. Yesterday’s win in Washington was impressive and is the kind of statement game you can only have when everyone is giving 100 percent on every play.

OK, fine, almost everyone …

Malkin’s controller got disconnected. pic.twitter.com/GvJSJTdm4M

— DJ Gallo (@DJGalloEtc) February 2, 2020

4. Tampa Bay Lightning (32-15-5, +41) – They’ve rolled off three more wins, although those came during their California road trip. Go pick on someone your own size. This week it’s back home for a bit of a test against the Knights, Penguins and Islanders.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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The star-studded UFA class of 2019 aren't signing extensions. That's rare, and history suggests it's bad news for their teams.

One​ of the biggest​ stories​ of​ the​ NHL​ season​ is what’s​ happening with the​ star-studded free agent​ class​ of 2019. And​​ what’s happening is: not much.

That’s a big deal. Every summer, we look ahead to the following year’s potential free agents and get excited over all the big names. And every year, almost all of those big names end up signing extensions long before they get anywhere near free agency. By the time July 1 rolls around, there’s rarely much star power left.

But so far, that hasn’t happened for most of the class of 2019. A few big names have signed, including Max Pacioretty, Pekka Rinne, Blake Wheeler and Ryan Ellis. But that’s left several top stars who still need extensions, and who are now less than seven months away from hitting unrestricted free agency.

We can start with Erik Karlsson in San Jose, who could end up being one of the offseason’s biggest stories for the second straight year. The Blue Jackets have both Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin. Buffalo’s Jeff Skinner is having a career year. And the Senators have both Matt Duchene and Mark Stone.

Those six players would all figure to hit the jackpot if they made it to the open market. But the list goes on, with names like Wayne Simmonds, Jake Gardiner, Joe Pavelski, Jordan Eberle and Cam Talbot all on expiring deals. And then there’s Anders Lee and Eric Staal and Tyler Myers and Mats Zuccarello and Semyon Varlamov and … you get the picture. The list is stacked.

Karlsson is expected to use Drew Doughty’s $11-million cap hit as a starting point. Bobrovsky and Panarin could both be looking at deals that would carry cap hits north of $9 or even $10 million. Skinner won’t be far behind, and Duchene was on track to get there too before his groin injury sidetracked a career year. Stone is in the same ballpark, although he can’t officially sign an extension until Jan. 1. And many of those other names figure to be looking at cap hits that would at least start with a six or seven on a multi-year deal. That’s a ton of talent, and a ton of potential money.

Hockey fans might be wondering whether it’s unusual for this many big-name pending UFAs to make it this far into the season without an extension. The short answer: Yes, it’s extremely unusual. For the longer answer, and what it might mean for 2019, let’s dive into the recent history.

Playing the waiting game

Most star players sign extensions relatively early. Some do it right on July 1, the first day they’re eligible; we saw that this year with Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Others take a few weeks, like Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in 2014, or even make it past opening night, like Brent Burns last year. But by the time the calendar flips over to December, most of the big names are already locked down.

When a pending UFA does make it this far into the season without an extension, there are basically three ways the situation can play out. The first is that they eventually sign during the season and stay with their team. If you’re a fan of a team that has one of those big names above, that’s the scenario you’re looking for.

The second possibility is that the player doesn’t sign during the season, but avoids free agency by agreeing to an extension during the offseason. In theory, that’s just as good. But these cases often involve the player being traded first, either as a deadline rental or in one of those June deals that sees his rights dealt in exchange for a middling draft pick. It doesn’t always work that way; as we’ll see, there are players who’ve made it through the season without an extension and then re-upped with their team weeks before free agency, and if you’re a contending team like the Sharks or Blue Jackets, maybe you’re willing to roll the dice while you chase a Cup right now. But if you’re the Senators or Flyers, can you take that chance?

And then there’s the third option: The player doesn’t sign during the season, they don’t sign during the offseason and they make it to the free agency period. At that point they’re free to shop their services to any team and the odds of them coming back are slim.

So how common is it for a star player to make it to December without an extension? And when it happens, how often do each of those three situations above play out?

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

Saturday storylines: The Battle of Alberta resumes

In the Saturday Storylines:
- The Battle of Alberta is back, and the stakes feel kind of high
- The Canucks get a visit from their old friend Nazem Kadri
- A coach whose hot seat may be about to melt
- The Atlantic Division is kind of terrible
- A look back at a forgotten classic playoff series with a game seven OT ending
- And more...

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

Six early trends that won't continue because that would be fun

We’ve now got almost a full week of the NHL regular season in the books. So what conclusions can we draw for the first few games?

The most likely answer: None. We can’t conclude anything. It’s only been a few games, and apart from a few injuries, chances are nothing that’s happened so far will really end up mattering. After all, we’re 36 games into a 1,230-game season. There’s more than enough time left for all of the early oddities and outliers to even out, and it won’t be long before we’ll probably have settled into a season that feels just like any other.

So yes, we can all agree that overreacting to the early results is foolish. But that’s too bad, because the first week has given us a handful of trends that it would be really cool to see continue over the rest of the season. We know it’s unlikely. But it’s hard not to hold out at least a little bit of hope that some of these temporary storylines will find a way to stick around.

So today, let’s look at a half-dozen early trends from the first week of the season that hockey fans should be hoping will continue, even though we know they probably won’t. At least we’ll be able to say we enjoyed them while they lasted.

Scoring is up

The NHL has spent the better part of two decades wringing its hands over an ongoing decline in scoring, without ever actually doing all that much about it. That continued this year when the league announced that they'd introduce smaller goaltending equipment, only to fail to have it ready in time for the season.

Maybe we didn't need it after all. Through the first few games, average scoring is up by roughly half-a-goal per team. We've seen scores like 7-4, 6-5, 6-4 and then 7-4 again, and so far there hasn't been a single shutout on the season (kind of).

Best of all, the increase hasn't simply been caused by more power plays, like the 2005-06 spike that turned out not to last. And it's all adding up an unusually high number of big comebacks. So what's going on? It's tempting to shrug it all off as just a quirk of small sample size, but that doesn't seem to tell the whole story.

One theory points to the World Cup, which gave the league's elite players a head start on playing meaningful games and let them hit the ground running. That makes sense, although it implies that the rest of the league should catch up relatively quickly. Or maybe we're just seeing the next wave of young talent land on the league with a thud, bringing more speed and creativity than today's defensive systems can handle.

That last one would be nice, but it seems overly optimistic.

NHL coaches have shown a frustrating ability to adapt their defence-at-all-costs approach to just about everything – if they could figure out a way to suck the life out of 3-on-3 overtime, it won't take them long to work their way around whatever's happening right now. But in the meantime, bring on the goals, and let's consider it a preview of what the league might look like if it ever got around to the sort of changes that really could make the increase permanent.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

Goalie controversy roundup: The Western Conference

On Wednesday, we looked at a half dozen Eastern Conference teams with unsettled goaltending situations. Some were old-fashioned controversies, whereas others were short-term situations caused by slumps or injuries.

We move on to the West, where we'll start with a team that seems to have a permanent spot on this list over the years.

Edmonton Oilers: Cam Talbot vs. Anders Nilsson

In this corner: Coming off a surprisingly good season with the New York Rangers, Talbot was the Oilers' offseason trade target. They got him, at the cost of three draft picks. Would he finally stabilize years of shaky goaltending? Spoiler alert: These are the Oilers we're talking about.

And in this corner: Nilsson was another trade piece, although one that received far less attention. He came over from the Chicago Blackhawks to provide the organization with some depth, and perhaps push Ben Scrivens for the backup job.

The results so far: Nilsson pushed Scrivens all the way to the AHL, and he didn't stop there. He's earned a share of the starter's job with Talbot, who hasn't played well at all.

Prediction: The Oilers have a decision to make on Talbot, and soon; he'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and with Edmonton looking like it will be well out of the playoff race, you'd expect the team to either sign him long term or try to flip him at the deadline to recover some of the assets it gave up to get him. That still gives Talbot a few months to find his game and reclaim the starter's job, and there's good reason to think that he can.

>> Read the full post on ESPN.com