Don't panic (yet)

Don’t panic.

It’s a phrase worth keeping in mind as you make your way through life. It’s calming, and helps keep things in perspective. Somebody should put it on the cover of a book someday.

And “don’t panic” is especially good advice when it comes to an NHL season that’s still just three weeks old. Every team in the league has over 70 games left to play, which is plenty of time to fix any flaws that may have emerged over the season’s first few matchups.

That said, we could all use a reminder every now and then. So today, let’s look at five situations around the league that have been a cause for concern, and why it might not be time to panic quite yet.

The team: Chicago Blackhawks

The panic: Their penalty killing is the worst.

Literally. It might be the worst we've ever seen. Through nine games, the Blackhawks are killing penalties at a rate of just 53 per cent. They'd been at just 50 per cent before Sunday night's performance against the Kings, the first game all season that the Hawks hadn't allowed a power-play goal. Granted, they only went 2-for-2, but hey, baby steps.

But wait: We'll start with the obvious, which is that there's simply no way the Blackhawks' penalty kill can continue to this bad. They've quite literally been historically bad, or at least as far back into history as our numbers can go. There's simply no way that a team that employs guys like Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Marian Hossa can be that bad over the long haul.

According to STATS, the #Blackhawks have the worst PK percentage over first 7 games as far back as STATS can go, which is 1987-88.

— Chris Hine (@ChristopherHine) October 27, 2016

But while it's tempting to just say "small sample size" and move on, the Blackhawks struggled last year too, ranking 22nd in the league. That's a big drop from the strong PK that was a big part of their championship runs as recently as 2013 and 2015. Something is going on here, and a special teams unit doesn't have to be historically bad to derail a season.

So what's happening? That's a question that seems to have stumped most observers. There doesn't appear to have been any kind of strategic shift, nor have we seen any key penalty killers leave the team. A breakdown of some of the early goals against revealed that many were coming from right on the doorstep, but didn't reveal any obvious tactical issues.

One area that does stand out is the goaltending; Corey Crawford is posting a short-handed save percentage of just .683, compared to a career average of .861. That doesn't necessarily tell us a ton, since we know that a goalie's penalty-kill save percentage is heavily influenced by how the team plays in front of him. But a nearly 200-point drop is hard to ignore, and it suggests that there may be something to the whole sample size argument.

The other good news is that the Blackhawks have one of the league's best coach-GM combos, so you'd have to figure that they find a way to make whatever changes need to be made. In the meantime, Chicago has still managed to win five of nine. That's not great, but it's good enough to keep them in the Central Division picture. You'll probably take that when a big part of your game has been historically bad.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

Five expected offseason moves we're still waiting for

The dog days of the NHL offseason got a nice jolt on Monday when the Senators and Rangers hooked up on a decent-sized trade. The deal sends Derick Brassard and a seventh to Ottawa in exchange for Mika Zibanejad and a second, improving the Senators’ top six while adding some youth to the Rangers and giving them some additional cap room to work with.

The trade also answered one of the offseason’s lingering questions, which was: When are the Rangers going to get around to doing something? We were all told to expect a busy offseason in New York, as GM Jeff Gorton would look to shake up his aging and expensive core. But until this week, not much had happened aside from a few minor free agency signings. Trading Brassard isn’t exactly a blockbuster, but at least now the Rangers are on the board.

But that still leaves a few more stories lingering in the “still waiting” file. Here are five moves everyone went into the offseason expecting to see that still haven’t happened yet.

The move: The Kevin Shattenkirk trade.

Heading into the offseason, it seemed as if Shattenkirk was the most likely blueliner to be on the move. With UFA status a year away, it just didn’t seem as if he was part of the Blues long-term plans. And with holes in the lineup created by other departures and several teams on the market in the hunt for defensive help, trading Shattenkirk seemed like the most obvious move for Blues’ GM Doug Armstrong.

Why hasn’t it happened yet?: The short answer is that Armstrong hasn’t found the right deal yet. But that just leads to the next question: Why not? It’s not like the market for defensemen suddenly dried up this summer; between P.K. Subban, Shea Weber and Adam Larsson, there’s been as much talent on the move as ever, and maybe more. But in Shattenkirk’s case, the move might get complicated. He’s one year away from free agency, so teams may be reluctant to acquire him without a firm sense of how much they’ll have to pay to keep him.

Odds that it still will: High. It just seems like this one has gone too far down the road to be pulled back now, with Shattenkirk’s agent going as far as calling a deal “inevitable” a few weeks ago. Maybe Armstrong has to lower his asking price, and maybe that brings teams like Edmonton back into the mix.

What if it doesn’t?: It’s going to seem awkward if training camp arrives and Shattenkirk is still a Blue. Still, having him in the lineup wouldn’t be the worst thing in the word for a legitimate Cup contender. Conventional wisdom says that you just can’t let a player like that reach free agency without trading him first, but as the Lightning showed with Steven Stamkos last year, sometimes it’s better to stay the course. Still, that’s risky territory for the Blues, and it’s hard to see how this gets that far.

>> Read the full post at The Hockey News

What went wrong for the playoff losers (and can they fix it)?

With the conference finals underway, we’re down to the NHL’s final four. The eyes of the hockey world are focused on the Sharks, Blues, Lightning and Penguins, and rightly so. One of those four teams will be our next Stanley Cup champion.

But four teams in the conference final also means 12 playoff teams sitting at home, wondering where it all went wrong. So let’s help those teams out and look at each of the dozen franchises that didn’t make the cut, and try to pinpoint the key flaw that sent them packing. And, more importantly, let’s ask the question: Can they fix it?

Dallas Stars

What went wrong? Goaltending. Hey, we might as well start off with the easy one, right?

The Stars were one of the league’s best stories, roaring back from a playoff miss to finish as the West’s top seed while leading the league in goals scored. They were also one of the most entertaining teams we’ve seen in years. But they went through the season with a massive question mark, and we all saw it: the goaltending duo was weak. Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi were good enough to get them to the second round, but a Game 7 meltdown against the Blues ended their season and drew a big red circle around the sport’s most important position.

Can they fix it? It won’t be easy. Before they can add anyone, the Stars will presumably need to subtract, and that’s no simple task. Their two incumbents carried a combined cap hit of $10.4 million, and both are locked in for two more years. Neither will have much trade value at that price. That doesn’t mean they can’t be traded – a willingness to retain salary and/or taking back an equally bad deal can open doors – but it’s possible that a buyout ends up being Jim Nill’s best option.

Even assuming that Nill can clear a spot on the roster, who does he go out and get? There are always goalies available in the off-season, but the tough part is finding the right one. The reality is that this is a league with about a half dozen sure-thing goalies, and a whole lot of question marks after that. Those sure-things aren’t going to be available, so Nill and the Stars will have to roll the dice.

History has shown that you don’t need a future Hall-of-Famer in net to win in this league. This year’s final four has shown it too. But you do need a guy you can trust, and the Stars just reminded us that finding that guy is no simple task. They’ll try again this summer, but it’s no sure thing that they’ll do any better.

Detroit Red Wings

What went wrong? The offence couldn’t finish. The Red Wings produced plenty of pressure against the Lightning, averaging 32 shots per game. But they never managed to score more than two goals in any game of the series, and ended up with just eight goals total. That included just one on the power play despite 25 attempts.

Can they fix it? We’ll cut the Wings some slack here. They were facing a strong defensive team with a hot goaltender, and their power play was decent over the regular season, ranking 13th. But the lack of offence wasn’t strictly a post-season problem. Detroit only scored 209 goals on the season, ranking just 23rd overall, and didn’t have a single player finish with more than 50 points.

So how do they get better? Losing Pavel Datsyuk won’t help, and if he heads home for Russia, as expected, he’ll leave a huge void. Henrik Zetterberg is 35-years-old, and his production has dropped sharply in each of the last two years. On the other hand, guys like Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist should improve with age and expanded roles, and Dylan Larkin is only just getting started.

Add it all up, and the Red Wings probably need help from outside the organization, either via free agency or trade. And to do that, they’ll likely need to find a home for Datsyuk’s cap hit first. That won’t be impossible, but Ken Holland has got some work cut out for him this summer.

Minnesota Wild

What went wrong? After splashing out on big-money franchise players in Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, the Wild have failed to surround them with enough talent to truly compete in a very tough Central Division.

The Wild spent big to build a team that could contend, but they could never beat the Blackhawks, and this year they were eliminated by what turned out to be a very flawed Stars team. Now they’re left with a core that’s old and expensive, most of whom are well into the stage of their careers where we should start expecting to see a decline.

Can they fix it? They’ve already made a big improvement, upgrading to Bruce Boudreau behind the bench. Adding one of the best coaches in the league could go a long way.

It may have to, because upgrading the roster is going to be a massive challenge for GM Chuck Fletcher. He’s largely locked into this core – they have nearly $50 million tied up in just nine players through 2017-18, and six of those guys are already over 30 today. Finding takers for any of those players in trades will be tough, and buyouts just kick the cap pain down the road.

Maybe Boudreau can work his magic and turn this group into contenders. The Wild had better hope so, because if there’s another realistic path to improvement here, it’s a tough one to find.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

Weekend report: Embrace the hate

Faceoff: The Hateful Eight

Let's be honest: The NHL has changed over the years. Some might even prefer "evolved." But it's been unmistakable. Fighting has plummeted, reaching levels we haven't seen in five decades. We still argue over suspensions, but the stuff that earns a ban these days is downright mild compared to plays that went completely unpunished years ago. And while some still like to pretend that players had more respect for each other in the old days, truly vicious stuff like this or this or this has all but vanished from the modern game.

And, most fans would tell you, all of that is a good thing. Today's game, while far from perfect, is indisputably cleaner and safer than it's been in generations. The NHL doesn't get enough credit for that.

But here's where the cognitive dissonance kicks in. Because as much as we can all appreciate the strides the game has made over the years, it's hard to deny a simple fact about NHL hockey: Hatred is fun. Bad blood is fun. Playoff hockey is good, but playoff hockey played between two teams that seem to genuinely hold each other in contempt is so much better.

And that's never more obvious than in the opening round, where we're typically treated to eight concurrent hate-based plotlines. That's especially true early on, when there are messages to be delivered and tones to be set. Every hit is finished, every shove is reciprocated, and nobody skates away from a scrum without getting a shot in.

This year has been no different, as even teams that spent the season on their best behavior are suddenly at each other's throats. We expected bad blood in series between established rivals, like the Blues and Blackhawks or Kings and Sharks. And they haven't disappointed, playing some serious big kid hockey over the first few games. But the beauty of the playoffs is that you don't need a history to get to the hatred. The Ducks and Predators series has been full of sneakily dirty plays. The Wild and Stars are going hard. And it only took two games before the Islanders and Panthers were sucker-punching each other below the belt. Literally.

The list goes on. Game 2 between the Rangers and Penguins featured a controversial hit from behind by Ben Lovejoy on Derek Stepan, while the Flyers and Capitals have been dishing out big hits of their own. We've also seen seven fighting majors handed out so far. Three of those came in a wild line brawl between the Lightning and Red Wings in the final minute of Game 2, one that saw Detroit's Justin Abdelkader jump Mike Blunden, bloodying the Tampa winger before he could fight back.

(The two teams very nearly staged a rematch at the final buzzer last night; you know you've got some bad blood when even Henrik Zetterberg is dropping his gloves.)

So is this what NHL hockey should look like? Maybe not. Is it entertaining? Hell yes. If thinking that makes you a hypocrite, then plenty of hockey fans are going to fit the description.

And we should see more of it this week. The rough stuff tends to die down as a series goes on, as the stakes get higher and the cost-benefit of hammering someone at every opportunity starts to drop. By the weekend, as we're getting into games six or seven, things will have calmed down a bit.

But until then, we've got at least a few more games of first-round hockey hatred left to enjoy. Even if we're not supposed to.

***

So about the power rankings section...

It's early. We can all agree on that. Two or three games is way too soon to be crowning anyone, or to be writing anyone off. Remember, three games into last year's playoffs, it looked like it was finally the Islanders' year to win a series and the Lightning were on the ropes. Two years ago, we'd already finished the obituary for the Kings.

So yes, it's early. A lot can change, and a lot will change.

With those caveats out of the way, who's ready to start drawing some ironclad conclusions? That's what I thought. Onto the postseason power rankings.

Conn Smythe Watch

Celebrating those who are making the strongest case for postseason MVP honors.

5. Kari Lehtonen—The Stars looked like an easy team to figure out heading into the playoffs. They were the West's top seed, and went into their series with the Wild as heavy favorites and legitimate Cup contenders. But they'd have to get there the same way they'd won during the season: By pumping home enough goals to make up for a leaky blueline and shaky goaltending.

We're only two games in, but so far the Stars aren't following the script. They're up 2-0 on the Wild, and the offense, led by Jamie Benn, has looked fine. But Lehtonen has been the story, allowing just one goal on 48 shots. It's early, sure, but that has to feel like a concern to the rest of the Western Conference. The Stars are already the league's highest-scoring team, one that just got Tyler Seguin back from injury and is already apparently bored enough to start scoring physics-defying goals like this. Watching Dallas learn how to actually stop the puck would feel like the raptor figuring out how to work the doorknob in Jurassic Park.

4. Reilly Smith—The Bruins' castoff has put up four goals and eight points through three games, making him the leading scorer through the postseason's first few nights. This isn't quite John Druce territory—Smith is coming off the second 50-point season of his career—but it's fair to say he probably didn't go in the first round of too many playoff pools.

He'd be higher on this list if the Panthers weren't down 2-1 against the Islanders in a series that's quickly emerging as the most sneakily entertaining of the opening round.

>> Read the full post at Vice Sports

Goalie controversy roundup: The Western Conference

On Wednesday, we looked at a half dozen Eastern Conference teams with unsettled goaltending situations. Some were old-fashioned controversies, whereas others were short-term situations caused by slumps or injuries.

We move on to the West, where we'll start with a team that seems to have a permanent spot on this list over the years.

Edmonton Oilers: Cam Talbot vs. Anders Nilsson

In this corner: Coming off a surprisingly good season with the New York Rangers, Talbot was the Oilers' offseason trade target. They got him, at the cost of three draft picks. Would he finally stabilize years of shaky goaltending? Spoiler alert: These are the Oilers we're talking about.

And in this corner: Nilsson was another trade piece, although one that received far less attention. He came over from the Chicago Blackhawks to provide the organization with some depth, and perhaps push Ben Scrivens for the backup job.

The results so far: Nilsson pushed Scrivens all the way to the AHL, and he didn't stop there. He's earned a share of the starter's job with Talbot, who hasn't played well at all.

Prediction: The Oilers have a decision to make on Talbot, and soon; he'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and with Edmonton looking like it will be well out of the playoff race, you'd expect the team to either sign him long term or try to flip him at the deadline to recover some of the assets it gave up to get him. That still gives Talbot a few months to find his game and reclaim the starter's job, and there's good reason to think that he can.

>> Read the full post on ESPN.com

The 2014 Olympic trade deadline

Hello, fans around the world, and welcome to our coverage of the 2014 Olympic hockey trade deadline. With all national rosters due today, this is the last chance for countries to trade players before locking in their lineups.

Rumors have been swirling for months and the tension is high, so let's go live to our studios as we count down to the deadline …

***

OK, we'll stop right there. Clearly, the entire premise of this column is ridiculous. The Olympic hockey trade deadline doesn't exist, and never could. It wouldn't even make any sense. After all, player eligibility is determined based on a detailed set of rules; that's the whole point. If stars suddenly started suiting up for different countries at major international tournaments, hockey fans wouldn't stand for it. So clearly, there can be no such thing as an Olympic trade deadline.

But what if there were? You're telling me that a trade deadline wouldn't make an already fun tournament even more entertaining? You wouldn't spend weeks obsessing over possible moves as the deadline approached, then call in sick when the actual day arrived? At the very least, it would give the various general managers something to do besides picking an all-star roster, immediately apologizing for it, and then having a camera isolated on them during every game while they look like they're undergoing cardiac arrest.

So yes, this whole thing is silly, will probably result in the majority of the world's population hating me, and risks turning into the worst HFBoards thread ever. But that doesn't mean we can't waste a few thousand words on it. Who's with me? That's what I thought. We now return you to our trade desk …

***

And we're back. There could be plenty of action today, as the top contenders are all looking to load up. Russia is under tremendous pressure to win gold on home ice. Team Canada, as always, will either win gold or be considered a national disgrace. Team USA will be looking to build on a surprising 2010 run that saw them fall just one goal shy of winning it all, while Sweden's aging core wants to get back to the top of the medal stand one last time. And what about the quasi-contenders? Will they try to compete with the big boys, or look to rebuild for the future?

Anything can happen. Remember, everyone is eligible to be moved, including players who didn't make their country's final roster. And based on the flurry of cell-phone checking that's currently going on behind me, we appear to have our first deal of the day. Cue the overly elaborate, swooshing "breaking trade" graphic.

Canada trades forward Logan Couture to Finland for goaltender Kari Lehtonen

On the surface, this one-for-one swap makes a lot of sense. Canada's roster is stacked as always, but goaltending is still an area of concern. Carey Price has looked fine and Roberto Luongo won gold four years ago, but the country has been falling behind the rest of the world in goal for years, and the days when it could bank on an obvious choice like Martin Brodeur or Patrick Roy are long gone. With Luongo's health status suddenly in question, it's not surprising that it wants to add some depth at the position.

Lehtonen will give Canada a safety net and could push for the starter's job if Price falters. He's far from a sure thing, but he's arguably the best goalie who'd be available. And Finland can certainly afford to move him, with Tuukka Rask already firmly established as the starter and Antti Niemi backing up.

The move doesn't come cheap for Canada, as Couture has already emerged as an excellent two-way player at the age of 24. But for whatever reason, Team Canada didn't seem high on him, and he was a somewhat surprising omission from the roster announced today. So he goes to Finland, which is considered a long shot to win a medal this year, where he can step in and play on its top six right now as well as in 2018 and beyond.

Canada has made an early blockbuster move. Which will be the next teams to pull the trigger? Apparently we won't have to wait long to find out, because we have another deal coming across the wire.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

Success stories from the NHL's opening month

"And then Ryan Smyth told me he used to have a
phone that was connected to the wall! What a joker!"

The NHL season is now a month old, and for many hockey fans that can mean only one thing: it's time to start looking for something to complain about.

After all, these days it seems like some fans love nothing more than pointing out someone else's flaws. And sure, if you look closely enough at any team or player you can always find at least one or two things that may be slightly less than perfect.

But as long-time readers know, I've never been the sort of writer who chooses to focus on the negative. So instead, let's take a look around the league and highlight some of the good news that's been on display in the early going. Consider this a negativity-free zone.

Here are some of the most inspiring success stories from the season's first month.

Joe Thornton - Showed a lot of class by apologizing to the Rangers for calling them the softest team the Sharks had played against, after explaining that he hadn't realized that intrasquad scrimmages counted too.

Ken Hitchcock - The Blues' new head coach will no doubt be wildly popular in St. Louis, a town where fans have proven to be willing to embrace a team's boss even if he's incapable of correctly operating a simple telephone.

Ville Leino - His $27 million contract with the Sabres is completely guaranteed no matter how he plays, his agent incredulously reminds him several times a day.

Dion Phaneuf - Has managed to put together an impressive season despite his recent habit of coming back to the bench after every shift, turning on his smartphone, checking for updates about the Calgary Flames, then laughing hysterically while high-fiving all his teammates.

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