NHL stock watch: February

As of this weekend, the NHL regular season will be four months old. We’re a few weeks away from the trade deadline, and then it’s straight into the home stretch as we head towards the playoffs. Those early-season weeks can sometimes feel like they’re dragging on, but from this point forward things start moving quickly.

That makes it a good time to check in with some of the trends that are rising and falling around the league. Let’s see how everyone’s portfolio is doing.

Stock rising: Competitive balance

It’s Gary Bettman’s favourite buzzword, and the league’s go-to example of everything that’s right with the cap era. In today’s NHL, we’re constantly told, almost everyone is a contender, and the playoff races come right down to the final weekend.

Most years, it's just marketing. But this season, it just might turn out to be true. As of today, only the Coyotes and Avalanche are truly done, with the other 28 teams all within seven points of a playoff spot. That means the entire Eastern Conference, and almost all of the West, are either in the mix or at least close enough to seem like they are.

Is that actually a good thing? That depends on your perspective. As we covered on Monday, it could definitely mess up the trade deadline. And for a lot of fans, this league is starting to feel like we're just flipping coins. But there's no question that seeing your favourite team in a playoff race is more fun than having them eliminated by February, and right now 28 out of the league's 30 fan bases have at least some vague reason to keep watching.

So what's behind the standings mashup? The salary cap is a big part of it, but doesn't explain why this year would be different than most. Some of that is probably just random luck, and we may see that even out as the year goes on.

But there's another key factor at play, and it's one the league won't want to acknowledge: Nobody is tanking this year. In years where there was a Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews waiting at the top of the draft, some teams were willing to take a knee on the season, and plenty more joined them as soon as things started to go bad. But with apologies to Nolan Patrick, a top pick in this year's draft doesn't carry anywhere near the same value. And so far, nobody's in any hurry to join the Avs and Coyotes in a race to the bottom.

And while we're at it, we may as well give some grudging credit to one other factor: The loser point. It's no secret that we hate it, and think that its parity-inducing properties are wildly exaggerated. But in the East, at least for this year, it really does seem to be keeping the races tighter – the average Eastern playoff team has 6.1 loser points, while the average non-playoff team has 8.6.

That's probably a fluke. We don't see the same effect in the West, where the distribution is the largely random sprinkling we normally see; Western playoff teams have 6.0 loser points compared to 5.3 for non-playoff teams, and the team with the fewest, Colorado, is buried in dead last. Still, for once the NHL's loser point spin might hold true in at least one conference.

The log jam won't last, of course — by the end of the month, anyone who's still six or seven points out will have to acknowledge that it's over, and the trade deadline will force teams to throw in the towel. But for now, over 90 per cent of the league still has something to play for, or at least can plausibly pretend that they do.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

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Weekend wrap: Cursing a Blues streak

We knew this was going to be a weird year for the St. Louis Blues. Their coach quit, but still stuck around for one more year. Next year’s coach has already been hired. They traded their best goaltender to a conference rival, but didn’t move the defenceman we all assumed would be moved.

So sure, nobody went into this season thinking it was business as usual in St. Louis. But we all thought they’d be good, right? Maybe not win-the-division good, or another-conference-final-appearance good. But they’d be in the mix, at least. At a bare minimum, they’d definitely be in the playoffs.

And early on, it looked like we'd all be right. Over the season's first half, the Blues were just fine, even if they looked like they weren't quite hitting on all cylinders. That may even have been a positive; after years of following up solid regular seasons with disappointing playoffs, maybe the Blues had learned to pace themselves, the way the Blackhawks and Kings always seem to.

Or maybe not. Maybe the Blues aren't a good team after all. They sure haven't looked like one recently.

After dropping a 5–3 decision to the Jets on Saturday, the Blues have now lost three straight. They've won just five of 12 since the Christmas break. And since a three-game win streak that had them at 14-7-3 on Dec. 1, they've only managed to string together back-to-back wins once.

So what's the problem? These days, the big issue is goaltending, as Jake Allen seems to be imploding in his first year as undisputed starter. The Blues have lost his last four starts and 10 of his last 14, and he's given up three goals or more in six of seven. He hasn't made it through a full game since Jan. 5, and things got so bad on Thursday that he was pulled twice in the same game.

That was the last we've seen of Allen; the Blues took the highly unusual step of leaving him behind when they headed to Winnipeg, citing a need to "get him unlocked." The team insists that Allen is still their guy, but it's clear that his current struggles aren't just a typical cold streak.

It all adds up to a Blues team that's just barely clinging to a Western wild-card spot, just one point up on the ninth-place Canucks. Even the Predators, all but written off after an awful first half, passed them over the weekend, bumping them out of the Central's top three.

The Blues' struggles may be shifting the league's trading landscape heading into the final weeks before the deadline. It had long been assumed that they'd hold onto Kevin Shattenkirk for a deep playoff run, but with that run now looking unlikely, he's back in play. It had also seemed like the market for goaltending was thin, with only the Stars and maybe the Flames or Islanders really in the hunt, but that changes if the Blues decide that Allen can't cut it. (Remember, this is a franchise with a history of making mid-season goaltending moves that are aggressive or even downright strange.)

Of course, that's led to speculation that the team might try to kill two birds with one stone by moving Shattenkirk for a goalie; more than a few observers have wondered if a Ben Bishop deal could be a fit. But there are other options, including shaking up the lineup or even pulling the trigger on Ken Hitchcock a few months early.

Or maybe they stand pat, turn things around and get back into the race. That's certainly a possibility. But the schedule won't do them any favors heading into the all-star break; they'll visit two of the best teams in the league this week, with stops in Pittsburgh tomorrow and Minnesota on Thursday.

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they're headed towards Stanley Cup favorite status.

5. San Jose Sharks (29-16-2, +16 true goals differential*): They make their first appearance in the top five since early December thanks to four straight wins.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets (32-10-4, +48): Yesterday's 7–6 win over the Senators was all sorts of fun. But more importantly, they may have dodged a bullet when Zach Werenski left the game after being hit with a shot. It looked bad, but he returned later in the period.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

Podcast: New York state of mind

In this week's episode of Biscuits, the Vice Sports hockey podcast:
- The NHL had a bunch of high-scoring games this week and they were great
- With Henrik Lundqvist struggling, are the Rangers a team in crisis?
- How is Garth Snow still employed? (Dave has an intriguing theory.)
- Reader questions
- More debate over the NHL's top 100
- More hints about something interesting that's happening next week
... and lots more.

>> Stream it now on Vice Sports

>> Or, subscribe on iTunes.

Weekend wrap: The mild west

In the NHL, we’ve spent the better part of the last two decades knowing we could count on at least one simple truth: When it comes to the conferences, West was best.

The conference boasted the best teams, and most of the best players. They didn’t always win the Stanley Cup, although they did win most of them.

And even when they didn’t, it was the exception that proved the rule.

Sure, an Eastern team won this year, we could say, but look how much easier their path to the final was.

And maybe more importantly, the Western Conference just had the better style of play. Whatever type of hockey you liked – bigger, faster, more offensive, more creative – you could point to the West and say that you saw it there.

Eastern Conference action was fine most nights, but if you wanted to see the really good stuff, you had to stick around for the late show.

In recent years, it started to feel like we'd all embraced the idea of Western superiority a little too tightly, as much out of force of habit as anything else. But the reality is that there was a lot of truth to the idea. When I crunched the numbers a few seasons ago, it was clear that the West really was dominating, and had been for years.

But recently, the trend seems to be showing cracks.

The East has won three straight Presidents' Trophies, and last year the Penguins finally snapped the Stanley Cup streak of the dominant Blackhawks/Kings tag team.

And this year, early as it may be, there's really no comparison. The East has been the far better conference.

You can see that trend at the top of any power rankings — including the ones in this column. The East is taking up most of the top spots, as teams like Montreal, New York Rangers and Pittsburgh churn along. That continues as you scan down the standings; Eastern teams hold down nine of the top eleven spots in terms of points, and each of the top four in terms of goals differential.

Out west, which team would you really consider dominant?

There are the Blackhawks, as always, although even their success has been accompanied by a sky-high PDO that has to come back to earth soon. Other than Chicago, there isn't a team in the conference that stands out. Setting loser points aside, eight teams in the East have at least two more wins than losses. In the West, only Chicago can make that claim.

Meanwhile, the East is giving up its grip on the bottom of the standings, where its teams used to litter the lottery odds charts. So far this season, it's teams like the Flames, Coyotes and Canucks that are struggling at least as badly as the Sabres, Islanders or Hurricanes, if not worse.

Again, it's still early, and a winning streak here or there can alter perception fairly quickly. But it sure looks like the East is headed towards finally staking a claim as the league's powerhouse conference, at least as far as the regular season goes. It sure took them long enough.

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they're headed towards Stanley Cup favorite status.

5. Tampa Bay Lightning (12-6-1, plus-15 true goals differential*) – Doctors say that Steven Stamkos is out for anywhere between four and six months, so remember to look surprised when he just happens to be cleared to return to the lineup on the day of their first playoff game.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins (11-4-3, plus-2) – Their home-and-home showdown with the Rangers this week should go a long way towards sorting out the top of the Metro pecking order.

3. New York Rangers (13-5-1, plus-32) – Speaking of which, remember when home-and-homes between division rivals used to happen on back-to-back nights so you knew there'd be some bad blood? Sure glad the NHL got rid of that.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

Weekend wrap: Hall-of-Fame edition

Opening faceoff: Hall of Fame weekend

The annual Hall of Fame weekend is one of the highlights of the season. We get the inductees being honoured before various games around the league, an alumni game, various fan events, and it all culminates with tonight’s induction ceremony in Toronto.

This year’s class – Eric Lindros, Rogie Vachon, Sergei Makarov and Pat Quinn – is an interesting one. The three players all had to endure a long wait before hearing their names called, including 31 years for Vachon. That just goes to show we never really know who’s going to be a Hall-of-Famer, even after a player’s career has long been over. If it can take three decades to figure out whether a goalie is headed to the Hall, arguing over active players seems downright futile.

And it probably is. But it’s also fun. So let’s do it right now, by celebrating Hall of Fame weekend with a question: Which of the games on this weekend’s schedule featured the most future Hall of Famers?

Obviously, certain teams are going to be the focus here. For example, the Penguins have two sure things in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin plus a handful of other possibilities. But they played the Maple Leafs, and with all due respect to Brendan Shanahan's rebuild, we should probably wait until mid-season to fast-track Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner's inductions.

The Lightning are another stacked team, although they're tougher to project given how young the core is. They faced the Sharks, who'll at least have Joe Thornton and could see guys like Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns make a push, so that's a good candidate.

A few other games that weren't exactly considered marquee matchups could make a case. For example, the Bruins have one lock in Zdeno Chara and another that's getting close in Patrice Bergeron, and they faced an Avalanche team that has Jarome Iginla and a bunch of young stars. And the Panthers/Islanders game featured Jaromir Jagr, Roberto Luongo and John Tavares, plus some young Florida stars.

Maybe we should be looking at the Canadiens. Shea Weber's odds look good, and at this rate Carey Price may be inducted three or four times. But they faced the Red Wings on Saturday, who really only have Henrik Zetterberg as a strong candidate right now. Last night's matchup between the Habs and Blackhawks would be a much stronger pick, but Price didn't play in that game.

But the Blackhawks do seem like the team to focus on, with Marian Hossa all but in and Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith well on their way. And luckily for us, they had another matchup over the weekend that we can use. That came on Friday, when the Hawks faced the Capitals. Washington's only sure thing right now is Alexander Ovechkin, but between Nicklas Backstrom, Braden Holtby and some of their younger pieces, they seem like a good bet to send a few players to the Hall someday.

So let's go with that. We'll pencil in Friday's Chicago/Washington game as having the most Hall-of-Fame packed matchup on the weekend schedule.

Remember to check back in 31 years to find out whether we were right.

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they're headed towards Stanley Cup favourite status.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins (10-3-2, +7 true goals differential*) – Weird fact: Sidney Crosby has only finished in the top five in goals scored once in his career, when he won the Rocket Richard back in 2010. With 10 goals through nine games, he looks like a good bet this season.

4. Washington Capitals (9-4-1, +3) – They went into Chicago and ended the Blackhawks' seven-game win streak on Friday, then got blown out by the lowly Hurricanes on Saturday. Back-to-backs against rested opponents can take down the best.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet