Puck Soup: One game in

On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- We go through each of the eight series to see what we know after one game
- The Leafs look amazing, the Oilers cough it up, the Pens and Rangers work overtime
- Are the Wild or Panthers in trouble
- No, the NHL is not biased against its largest US market
- A roundup of the coaches who got fired and, maybe more surprisingly, who didn't (yet)
- Why we're not sure yet which category Bruce Boudreau is in
- And more...

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Weekend rankings: The West is chaos (but fun), the Leafs are good (but maybe not good enough) and the Red Wings are confusing

Last week, we talked about the Eastern Conference, and how the eight playoff teams are so good that the stretch run feels kind of boring. Almost everyone is a legitimate contender, so none of the races really matter, and there isn’t much reason to worry about who finishes where or matches up with who, and nobody is a favorite.

And then there’s the Western Conference.

You want a wildcard race? You’ve got it. You want a clear favorite? Got that too. Want just enough separation between the top and the bottom that there’s the potential for results that feel like real upsets? Yep. How about one team that’s gone over the cap to pack the roster with stars and still might miss the playoffs in what would be the biggest disaster of the season and make 31 other fan bases laugh evilly? That’s weirdly specific, but yeah, the West has you covered.

Heading down the stretch, the West pretty much has it all, except for suspense around the two division winners. We know those will be the Avs and Flames. Beyond that, there’s still lots to be decided.

Let’s start in the Central, where we pretty much know we’re going to get the Wild and Blues in round one, but aren’t sure who’ll have home ice. Both teams are hot, and on Friday we got a head-to-head playoff preview that the Blues took in overtime. The Wild held a 3-1 lead early in the third but let it slip away as the Robert Thomas breakout continues, meaning the Blues are even in points but Minnesota still has a game in hand. Given that both teams are far better at home than the road, the race for second might matter a lot.

The Pacific looks like it could be headed towards an Oilers/Kings matchup that will launch a thousand playoff format complaints but bring back some old-school Smythe Division vibes. The Oilers just went toe-to-toe with the Avs in the rare 2-1 game that was actually entertaining before a one-sided overtime ended and everyone turned it off. Somebody won in the shootout, but that part doesn’t matter as much as two key storylines: The Oilers can hold their own in a low-scoring slugfest with a contender, and Darcy Kuemper is quietly heating up for an Avs team that was already the favorite when he was mediocre.

The Avs, Oilers, Flames Blues and Wild are all locked into the playoffs, leaving four or maybe five teams fighting for three spots. That “maybe” is for you Vancouver fans, and to their credit the Canucks aren’t going quietly with three wins this week. I think they’re out of runway, but tomorrow’s showdown with Vegas still feels meaningful. The Golden Knights absolutely need to make the playoffs, and with six wins in their last seven and Max Pacioretty back, they’ve still got a decent shot. They’re chasing the Predators and Stars for the wildcard spots, but their best chance might be overtaking Los Angeles for third in the Pacific, especially after the Kings coughed up a strong start in yesterday’s loss to the Wild. The Predators got a point in an OT loss to the Penguins, while Dallas took care of business in Chicago.

It’s chaos, the good kind, and the outlook changes pretty much every night. That’s a lot more fun than what we have out East, unless you’re one of those fans living and dying with every result down the stretch.

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Puck Soup: Canada joins the party

On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- We preview the two North Division series
- Where the other six series are at
- The Canucks get set to make changes, maybe
- Jeff Blashill keeps his job, and what that means for the Wings
- Rick Tocchet and Gerard Gallant interviewing for vacancies
- Filling out Greg's awards ballot
- A new quiz and more...

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>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.

Puck Soup: Return to play

In this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- We react to the NHL's Return to Play plan
- Did they screw up the draft lottery? One of us actually likes it
- We're still not sure if the first round counts as the playoffs or not
- The Red Wings and Sabres stand pat
- Greg tries to say nice things about Rise of Skywalker
- A journeyman quiz
- And more...

>> Stream it now:

>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.

Ranking every game the 2019-20 Red Wings lost by four or more

The NHL is still trying to figure out how to handle the draft they’re hoping to have in three weeks, because hey, no rush. The most recent idea involves a revamped lottery that would guarantee the Red Wings one of the top two picks, even though the existing rules would give them about a 50 percent shot of falling to fourth.

If you’re like most fans, your first reaction to hearing that plan was “Oh right, the Red Wings exist.” Your second thought may have been “That’s not fair.” But your third thought was probably something along the lines of “Well, if anyone deserves a thumb on the scale, it’s this year’s Red Wings because I seem to recall that they were very bad.” You recall correctly.

The 2019-20 Red Wings were indeed bad. They didn’t just lose, and lose often, although they did that. They also lost big. On fourteen different occasions, the Red Wings lost a game by four goals or more.

If that seems like a lot, it is. It accounts for over 10 percent of such games in the NHL this year, even though the Wings are just one of 31 teams. It’s nearly twice as much as the next teams on the list (the Sharks and Devils, both with eight). Several truly bad teams didn’t come close, like the Senators (six), Sabres (five) and Kings (just three). The Red Wings managed 14, nearly one in every five games they played.

I think that’s an accomplishment worth celebrating. I’m serious. In this watered-down modern NHL, where parity has flattened the majority of teams into nearly indistinguishable lumps of mediocrity, this year’s Wings broke through. Sure, it was to the wrong side of the ledger, but it was still a breakthrough.

Today, as we prepare ourselves for the potential dawn of the Alexis Lafreniere era in Detroit, let’s look back on a season for the ages. We’re going to rank and relive each of the 14 times that the Red Wings lost by four or more.

Some people are going to see this as taking a run at the Red Wings, or kicking them when they’re down. But if anything, I think it’s the opposite. NHL history is packed with forgettable bad teams, the kind that slogged their way through a disappointing season that barely anyone even notices. Eventually, it happens to everyone. Somebody’s got to finish last every year, after all. If it’s your turn to be bad, why not be really bad? Embrace the identity. Really explore the studio space.

The Red Wings did. Let’s remember how, as we count down the worst of those 14 blowouts. And to get a Detroit perspective, I’ve asked Max Bultman to weigh with thoughts on a few of these.

No. 14. Canucks 5, Red Wings 1 (Oct. 15)

This was just the sixth game of the season, and the Wings were actually off to a decent start, winning three of five. I’m not sure if that makes this game better or worse, since it’s kind of like finding the first crack in the foundation of a house you later realize is made out of paper mache and raw spaghetti noodles.

Still, it was a decent start, to both the season and this game. Dylan Larkin scored 30 seconds in and the Wings held that lead for almost an entire period. But the Canucks tied it late in the first, and a pair of powerplay goals in the second let them pull away.

Depressing postgame quote: “It was a great first shift for the Detroit Red Wings but not a lot went right after that.” – The lead on the NHL.com writeup of the game. OK, but the first shift was good, right? We can build on this.

No. 13. Rangers 5, Red Wings 1 (Nov. 6)

As a lifelong Leafs fan, I know that a lowkey awful moment in any rebuild is when you go up against another rebuilding team that’s already further along than you are. There’s really no good result. If they win, well, they’re better than your team and a reminder of how far you have to go. If they lose, geez, how can you be years into a rebuild and still be bad enough to lose to us? It’s not fun.

The Wings played the Rangers reasonably tough, staying even after one and even outshooting them 36-31 on the night. But they give up two powerplay goals, a clown car of a shorthanded goal off a 1-on-3 rush and an empty netter on the way to a 5-1 loss.

Fun fact: After this loss, the Wings launched a five-game point streak, by far their longest sustained success of the year. There may be hope! (There is no hope.)

Max says: I’m surprised this one wasn’t higher. At that point in the season, this game seemed to epitomize their habit of playing a tight game for a period, then getting derailed by a flurry of goals and the game being functionally over in a flash. But maybe I just remember the night so clearly because they made a midnight trade for Robby Fabbri afterward.

Depressing postgame quote: “You go through all the stats and all that stuff, even strength we’ve actually been a pretty good hockey team, to be honest with you. I know there’s been lots said about us defensively but if you look even strength, I think we’re in the top 15 in the league of expected goals-against, that kind of stuff.” – Jeff Blashill. Well, that settles it: advanced stats don’t work.

No. 12. Devils 5, Red Wings 1 (Nov. 23)

Six weeks in, the season had already gone sideways for both teams. That had been largely expected in Detroit, while New Jersey’s early collapse was a bigger story. That led to some speculation that this game was a must-win for Devils’ coach John Hynes because we were already at the point where losing to the Red Wings felt like a fireable offense.

The two juggernauts played to a scoreless first, and Detroit grabbed an early lead in the second before heading into the final frame tied 1-1. That’s when it all fell apart for the Wings, who surrendered four third-period goals. The last of those comes with just 11 seconds left, narrowly qualifying this game for our list.

Also, Anthony Mantha gets hurt and misses three weeks, so they had that going for them.

Depressing postgame quote: “We’ve been really porous defensively the last couple of games and that’s not good enough.” – Jeff Blashill. Coach is right, boys, we need to find a way to get to just moderately porous.

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Weekend rankings: Who’ll be the next coach to be fired?

We had our first coaching change on the 2019-20 season last week. You may have missed it since it came in Toronto and that team tends to fly under the radar. But with Mike Babcock handed his walking papers and Sheldon Keefe installed behind the Leafs’ bench, we can now settle those “first coach fired” bets from October.

Great. So who’s going to be second?

It’s kind of a macabre question – we’re talking about people losing their jobs, after all – but it’s unavoidable in a league where midseason changes are taking on increased importance. This time last year, we’d already had four, including one by the eventual Cup winners. The Babcock firing came one year and one day after the Blues replaced Mike Yeo with Craig Berube, en route to becoming the fourth team in a decade to fire their coach and win a Cup in the same year.

The Leafs hope they can pull off the same sort of turnaround. But history tells us that they won’t be the only candidate. We’ll probably see another coach sent packing before long. But who is the most likely candidate?

It’s a tricky question, and perceptions can shift quickly. Go back even a few weeks, and the odds-on favorite was clear: Dallas coach Jim Montgomery, whose Cup-worthy roster was spinning its wheels. But the Stars have been on fire lately, so Montgomery suddenly seems as safe as can be. At least until the next losing streak.

A few of his Central division colleagues may not be so lucky. Bruce Boudreau’s Wild continue to flounder, and with an expiring coaching contract and a new GM in place who didn’t hire him, there’s little reason to think he’ll be Bill Guerin’s long-term answer. It feels like more of a when-not-if situation in Minnesota, so the question might be whether somebody else beats them to the punch.

Another Central candidate: the Predators, whose recent losing streak dropped them all the way out of a playoff spot. Adam Vingan explored the question of Peter Laviolette’s job security last week, and the coach doesn’t seem overly worried. But as the league’s third longest-serving coach, and with a veteran roster that’s built to win it all right now, he probably should be.

The only other two coaches with longer tenures may have worries of their own, although Paul Maurice has his Jets hanging around the wildcard race. Jon Cooper and the Lightning have been underwhelming, but he feels like a guy who’d be in danger after another first-round exit, not during the season. Then again, we all said that about Babcock too.

The Pacific offers up a few candidates, with Peter DeBoer’s Sharks and Bill Peters’ Flames both underachieving. San Jose is at least trending in the right direction, and you’d think Peters would get the benefit of the doubt after last year’s turnaround. But six straight losses were starting to feel like a crisis, so somebody getting fired in Calgary no longer feels impossible. The question might be who.

Shifting to the East, the bottom of the standings reveals a few candidates. Jeff Blashill’s been showing up on hot seat lists for a few years now, and while we thought he’d received a vote of confidence last year in the form of an extension, that was under a different GM. Furthermore, the extension reportedly includes a club option, so he isn’t as secure as it looked. The question in Detroit might be whether Steve Yzerman would bother with a midseason change, rather than waiting out a rebuilding year, banking some high lottery odds and then making a change in the offseason.

David Quinn’s Rangers are underachieving in what was supposed to be a transition year back to contention, although he’s only in Year 2. John Tortorella’s Blue Jackets are outside of the playoff picture, although most of us expected that after their offseason exodus. And then there’s John Hynes, who is somehow the fifth longest-serving coach in the league now. His Devils continue to be inconsistent at best, and while he can’t strap on the pads and play goal, you get the sense that patience is running out in New Jersey.

Did we miss anyone? I’m not counting any first-year coaches, on the assumption that nobody’s going to get Sparky Allison’ed. We’ll assume that anyone whose team is overachieving or securely in a playoff spot is safe for now, although two bad weeks can change that. And while his team is playing below expectations, I can’t imagine Gerard Gallant being in any danger, so we won’t call a cab for him anytime soon.

Who’s the favorite? Of all the candidates, Hynes stands out – he’s been around forever, his team looks awful and there’s pressure to win right now thanks to the looming Taylor Hall decision. But Babcock’s availability could shift some equations; we’ve seen teams make surprise moves to grab recently fired coaches before, and Babcock speculation is already popping up around some of the teams on our list. A veteran, win-now team like the Sharks or Predators could make sense if he wanted to jump right back into the mix. And if he doesn’t, a Maple Leafs turnaround after making a switch will just ramp up the pressure on anyone else who seems to be on the fence.

We’re at that time of year. It’s officially no longer early. And as the Blues showed us last year, a big move at the right time can save a season. One team’s already taken the plunge; let’s see who’s next.

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed towards a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

Under Babcock, the Leafs had won just two games over teams currently holding a playoff spot, and neither of those had come in regulation. Under Keefe so far, the Leafs are 2-0-0, with impressive road wins over the Coyotes and Avalanche. Thursday’s win over the Coyotes was a strong 60-minute performance, while Saturday’s victory against the Avs was more of an up-and-down affair. Still, the two wins snap a six-game losing streak, and combined with Keefe’s strategic shifts, they offer some hope that the season can be salvaged, or maybe more than that.

Is that enough for a top-five spot? Well …

5. Toronto Maple Leafs (11-10-4, -3 true goals differential*) – I’m kidding, I’m kidding. Calm down everyone. The Leafs aren’t in the top five based on two games. I’m not that much of a homer, come on.

(But check back next week.)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning (11-7-2, +8 true goals differential*) – They’ve won two straight and five of seven, and looked at least a little like their old selves while rolling over the Ducks on Saturday. They’ve played the fewest games in the entire league, with just 20 on the books, so the point total isn’t impressive. But in terms of points percentage, they’ve already climbed back into an Eastern playoff spot. In fact, they’ve passed by the wildcards and are sitting in third in the Atlantic.

4. St. Louis Blues (14-5-5, +8) – How did you celebrate Mike Yeo Anniversary week? The Blues recognized the occasion with home wins against last year’s top two regular-season teams, as they beat the Lightning and Flames. Then they lost to the Predators on Saturday; they’ll get a rematch tonight.

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The Leafs land Mike Babcock

After a yearlong circus in which naive Toronto Maple Leafs executives and their delusional fans had convinced themselves that Mike Babcock would ever actually want to go anywhere near that punch line of an organization, we finally found out yesterday where the well-respected former Red Wings coach was really going. And the winner is … Toronto?

Wait, that can’t be right.

But it is, thanks to a mammoth eight-year, $50 million, front-loaded deal that Babcock agreed to after weeks of intrigue and visits with suitors around the league. After 10 years in Detroit that included one Stanley Cup and two Olympic gold medals, Babcock has been the league’s hottest free agent for the better part of the last year. Speculation about whether he’d leave Detroit has been buzzing since last summer and went into overdrive when the Red Wings were knocked out of the playoffs, with the “Babwatch” getting hyped to almost mythical levels.

And now we’re left with a world where the Toronto Maple Leafs did a good thing. Well, not necessarily good — we’ll get to that in a minute — but they accomplished what they set out to do. They didn’t fail, epically and embarrassingly, as the entire hockey world pointed and laughed. In Toronto, that counts as progress.

So now that we know the details, let’s try to sort out what this means in Toronto and beyond.

The Toronto Maple Leafs

There’s been little doubt that the Maple Leafs wanted Babcock, or at least somebody with the same sort of résumé and name value. That was the case when they were considering their coaching options this time last year. When they couldn’t find someone who fit that profile, they extended Randy Carlyle and then fired him after just half a season, leading to plenty of speculation that they’d be all in once Babcock hit the open market.

But that was a year ago, when Leafs president Brendan Shanahan & Co. were holding out hope that the Leafs just needed a few tweaks and a fresh coat of paint to contend. Since then, Shanahan — the “& Co.” have all since been fired — has realized that Toronto is facing a far bigger overhaul. That made it hard to picture Babcock wanting any part of spending a few years hitting rock bottom on a team just starting its rebuild, especially with far easier road maps available elsewhere.

Babcock may still be a good fit in Toronto; after a decade in Detroit, he’s clearly not one of those short-shelf-life coaches who wears out his welcome after three or four seasons. And the eight years on his new contract should certainly be enough time for even the hapless Leafs to get things turned around. At the very least, landing him gives the Leafs a boost of something they haven’t had for years: credibility.

And that’s why maybe the biggest winner here is Shanahan. He called his shot on this one, not so much with his words but with his actions over the past year. Talking a big game is nothing new in Toronto, but actually delivering sure is. Shanahan has already faced criticism of his approach to hiring — the team currently has no GM and just parted ways with its AHL coach. With the Leafs seeming to fall out of the Babcock picture in recent days, the narrative of a disorganized organization being led by a rookie, overmatched executive was getting ready to grind into full gear.

Instead, the Leafs actually got it done. Whatever you think of the fit for Babcock in Toronto, it has to be encouraging for Leafs fans to know that Shanahan was able to sell a smart guy like Babcock on his vision for the future. (Although the wheelbarrow full of cash probably didn’t hurt either.)

The Detroit Red Wings

Losing Babcock will hurt for the Red Wings and their fans. The franchise did just about everything right here, essentially putting that whole “If you love something, set it free” idea into real-world practice. The Wings made it clear that they wanted Babcock back, while allowing (and even encouraging) him to explore other opportunities. They never pressured him. And they kept everything cordial, with Babcock and Detroit GM Ken Holland even sitting down together for a fascinating interview with TSN last week.

And over the weekend, it looked like it was going to work. After months of speculation about which new team Babcock would jump to, a consensus emerged that he was going to stay in Detroit after all. He’d looked around, he’d heard from all the suitors, and he’d decided the grass really wasn’t greener after all. It was actually shaping up to be a nice little reunion story.

And then he jumped ship. You can’t blame him, and you can’t blame the Wings for not wanting to get into a bidding war with billionaires. But you have to feel for Detroit fans who spent all year preparing for Babcock to leave, only to be (incorrectly) told he was probably staying at the last minute.

The good news for the Red Wings is that they’ve got Babcock’s replacement lined up …

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