On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- We react to the NHL award annoucements
- Where the Stanley Cup final stands after one game
- The Blackhawks abuse scandal evolves and widens
- It's not soudning great for the Olympics
- Seattle and Buffalo get their coaches
- OUFL fried foods and more...
>> Stream it now:
>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.
>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.
Here are the facts: The Montreal Canadiens went 24-21-11 this year, losing eight more games than they won. They finished with the 18th-best record in a league where 16 teams make the postseason, earning the last spot in the North Division by a mere four points. They were 19th in goals differential, and finished tied with Chicago and Arizona for 19th in wins. They were 17th in goals scored and 18th in goals against, the latter partly due to their star goalie finishing the season with the seventh-worst save percentage among goalies who played at least 25 games. They were the only playoff team to hit double-digits in loser points, with 11. They fired their coach a month into the season, then saw their record get even worse under the new one. Then they went into the playoffs cold, on the heels of a season-ending five-game losing streak.
Now they’re in the Stanley Cup final.
What?
On the surface, this doesn’t make sense. It’s sports, and sports is supposed to have upsets and underdogs, but this seems extreme. If you just look at those basic numbers up above, then what’s happening in Montreal seems borderline impossible. We haven’t seen a team turn a regular season like this into a championship since 1949, but the Habs are on the verge of doing it. And they’re kind of making it look easy.
It has to mean something. But what?
Spoiler alert: I have no idea. But I want to think it through, so I’ve come up with ten theories about what’s happened to the Montreal Canadiens over the course of this run, and what the rest of us can learn from it. There may be some truth to a few of them, or even most. They may all be wrong.
Let’s try to find out. I’ll give you ten theories, why they work, and why they might not, and then you head to the comments and tell me which ones I should buy into.
The theory: Let’s start with what might be both the easiest answer, and also the most complicated: The standings lied. The Canadiens went through their ups and down like any team, but they were always a good team that was a threat to have the sort of run they’re having. If you missed that because you didn’t look any deeper than what the standings page said, that’s on you.
Why it might work: There’s a decent argument to be made that a simple glance at the Canadiens’ record is at least misleading. For starters, they got all those loser points because they went 3-8 in overtime and 1-3 in shootouts; in regulation, when real hockey is played, they basically broke even (20 wins and 21 losses). That late-season losing streak came when they already had a playoff spot largely wrapped up, and they were tired from a condensed schedule due to COVID delays. Carey Price was hurt for a lot of the year, so throw his stats out the window. And the team’s underlying numbers were good, with Natural Stattrick’s numbers having them 10th in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and second in 5-on-5 Corsi, but the seventh worst PDO in the league (and worst among playoff teams).
Why it might not: All of that does seem like a pretty convincing argument that the Canadiens weren’t a bad team, but I’m not sure it adds up to them being especially good. The various models out there, including Dom’s, all take underlying numbers into account, and most of them still didn’t think much of Montreal’s chances. So at best, this theory only gets us part of the way there. Let’s keep going…
The theory: We’re constantly told that the playoffs are a different game. Marc Bergevin knew that, and he built a team that was designed for the postseason.
Why it might work: Go down the list of postseason cliches, and the Habs do check a lot of boxes. They play defense. They block shots. They’re good on special teams, especially the penalty kill. They don’t have any big-name stars who rack up stats and personal glory, but they do have a bunch of guys willing to lay it all on the line for the team.
Maybe the playoffs really are different. And more intriguingly, maybe Bergevin understood that in a way that most of us don’t, and built a team that was just good enough to get into the postseason and perfectly positioned to be a force once they were there. He added veterans with Cup rings, including Corey Perry and Eric Staal. He went out and got a big body in Josh Anderson, even coming off of a terrible season, because those are the guys who are hardest to handle in the playoffs. He had guys like Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault and Paul Byron who’d leave everything on the ice. And he built it all around Carey Price and Shea Weber, two Team Canada veterans who’ve played on the biggest stages but are hungry for their first Cups.
He built that team knowing that if they could be good enough during the season and have the old Price show up in time for the playoffs, they’d be contenders. He was right.
Why it might not: It starts sounding a little too convenient, right? Sure, the playoffs aren’t the same as the regular season, but it’s not a whole new sport. And it gets a little too easy for those of us in the narrative business to just wait until the final, then knowingly point at the two teams left and say that they “knew how to play playoff hockey” and all the other teams didn’t. It’s weird how we never manage to figure any of this out until we already know the right answer.
That’s not to say there isn’t anything to this idea, or that Bergevin doesn’t deserve credit. But if he’s truly cracked the code, this success should be sustainable and not just a one-year wonder. I guess time will tell.
The theory: This is a slightly more nihilistic version of Theory 2. It’s not just that the playoffs are different. It’s that they’re practically random, with tiny two-week sample sizes that lend themselves to flukes, hot streaks and weird bounces.
The regular season tells us which 16 teams make the playoffs, and that’s it. Once the postseason starts, we’re just flipping coins, which is why the 18th best team in the league basically has as good a shot as anyone.
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The Montreal Canadiens are in Tampa tonight to kick off the first round of the Atlantic Division playoffs. [Checks notes.] Nope, wait, apparently this is the Stanley Cup final. Huh. Got to be honest, I did not see this matchup coming. Not many of us did. But it’s been pretty much the weirdest season in NHL history, so let’s roll with it.
One thing that hasn’t changed from past seasons: Two teams made the final, which means everyone else didn’t. That means it’s time for one of my favorite annual columns, as we go through all of the other 30 teams and try to figure out which of the finalists they should be rooting for. In theory, this year delivers a classic David vs. Goliath matchup, with the defending champs facing a huge underdog that everyone should be rooting for. Does it actually work out that way? Let’s find out.
As always, these are suggestions only, and if you’ve already made up your mind then you’re free to stick with that pick. But if you’re on the fence, or open for discussion, let’s see if we can talk you into one side or the other.
Anaheim Ducks
Last year, I told Ducks fans they should root for Corey Perry’s team to beat the Lightning in the final. It’s always nice when the hockey gods give me an excuse to recycle content.
Pick: Canadiens
Arizona Coyotes
The Canadiens won 24 games during the regular season, just like the Coyotes. By the transitive property of playoff success, that means that if they win the Cup then Arizona is knocking on the door too.
Pick: Canadiens
Boston Bruins
This is a tough matchup for Bruins fans, who aren’t exactly going to be shoving each other out of the way to get on the Lightning bandwagon after their recent Atlantic rivalry. But come on – no self-respecting Bruins fan can possibly cheer for the Habs, right? Of course not. I’m guessing a lot of Boston fans will choose “none of the above”, but if we have to pick one team, the choice is clear…
Pick: Lightning
Buffalo Sabres
If you’re a Sabres fan searching desperately for some small ray of hope, good luck finding it in a Lightning team that seems miles ahead of anything the Sabres could ever imagine being any time soon. Then you see a Habs team that finished with almost the same record as Buffalo just last season, and you think… maybe?
Pick: Canadiens
Calgary Flames
Hold on, everyone. Timeout.
Canada, huddle up, we need to talk.
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On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- The Lightning lose Game 6 and Nikita Kucherov
- Where the Coliseum ranks among all-time arena goodbyes
- Can Montreal close it out?
- What's up with the Golden Knights' disappearing stars?
- How Vegas could get Jack Eichel
- Conn Smythe favorites, and some interesting long shots
- I defend the loser point (in 1999)
- John Ziegler's legacy, how the Flames made history, and more...
The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)
On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- The playoffs are full of surprises. Is that good?
- Our thoughts on Montreal's run to the final
- The Lightning rout the Islanders
- Current Conn Smythe favorites
- That wild Lady Byng rant that made no sense
- The worst final ever, OUFL Chinese food, and more...
>> Stream it now:
>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.
>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.
The NHL playoffs are an endless grind of grief and disappointment, a joyless slog filled with underperforming stars and unfair outcomes that serve no purpose beyond sapping whatever remaining traces of happiness might still exist in the deep crevices of our exhausted brains. Nobody enjoys any of it, and there is growing consensus that postseason hockey should be banned. The maddening spiral of pointless cruelty and abject misery serves only to foster a sense of deep foreboding as we crawl towards our inevitable…
(Checks earpiece.)
Huh. I’m being told that all of that might only apply to Leaf fans. Apparently other teams occasionally win in the postseason? Some fans get to be… happy? That sounds weird to me but I guess I’ll take your word for it.
But yeah… disappointment. Let’s celebrate it. As we close in on the end of the third round of this year’s postseason, it’s time to build out our annual team of playoff underperformers. We’ll go with a full 20-man roster, with at least one rep from each of the eliminated teams. Keep in mind that this won’t necessarily be the postseason’s worst performers, since that would include a bunch of fourth-liners who nobody expects to contribute. Instead, we’re going for disappointment, which factors in the higher expectations that some stars carry.
Have you practiced your weary sighs and sad head-shaking? Good, let’s get started…
Tristan Jarry, Penguins
Every Penguins fan knew he’d be here, and they probably would have shown up at my house in protest if he wasn’t. We could mention the .888 save percentage, or the 3.18 goals against. We could focus on the 16 goals against in the last four games of the series. Or we could just remember this moment, which was probably the turning point of the Penguins’ postseason.
Sergei Bobrovsky, Panthers
I feel like Jarry would be the consensus pick for the starter on this team, but his numbers were actually significantly better than Bobrosvky’s .841 and 5.33, which would be enough to get you benched in the mid-80s Norris Division. It was enough in 2021 too, as the league’s second highest-paid goaltender lost his job not once but twice, and to two different guys. That’s generally a sign that a series isn’t going well.
John Carlson, Capitals
Like a lot of players on this roster (and pretty much everyone who takes the ice in the playoffs), Carlson was playing through injury, in his case a bad knee. Still, a guy with a reputation as one of the league’s top offensive blueliners managed just a pair of assists against Boston, both on the powerplay, and his underlying numbers were awful. You could make a strong case that Dmitry Orlov was even worse, but Orlov wasn’t the Norris runner-up last year, so Carlson takes the disappointment crown.
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With the postseason winding down and most of the league on the sidelines watching the remaining teams, it’s the time of year when fans start to wonder what lessons we can learn from the final four contenders.
After all, we’re always told that it’s a copycat league, and we know that GMs around the NHL love to pivot their gameplan to whatever the eventual champion just did. Once a team wins the Cup, everyone immediately starts picking them apart. Were they big? Small? Skilled, or fast, or neither? Did they build through the draft? Did they fire their coach? Did they play a certain style? Cool, a bunch of teams inevitably say, then we need to do that too, starting right now.
This year, there seems to be a certain amount of dread among NHL fans about how this is going to go. Two of the remaining four teams have been winning with a commitment to defense, or at least that’s been the narrative. What if one of them wins – or worse, they both meet in the final – and every other GM decides to double down on dull, defensive hockey?
I’ve got some thoughts on that we’ll get to in a bit. But for now, let’s think a little bigger. And for once, we’ll even look on the bright side. For each of the remaining teams, let’s focus on the lessons that other GMs could learn that would be, from a fan’s perspective, good news for the league. The NHL is an entertainment product, after all, and there’s nothing wrong with hoping that any shifts in thinking point towards more fun, not less. And with this year’s final four, there are a few ways that could happen.
Let’s find a few of those, by picking three lessons we hope other teams take away from each of the final four, both in terms of how they play and also how they were built. And then, to keep it from getting too positive, we’ll also pick on lesson per team that we really hope the GMs ignore.
Fun lesson 1: The trade deadline isn’t dead.
We’ve been hearing it for years – maybe we need to rethink the deadline, because only one team can win in any given season, and surrendering prime assets for short-term rentals usually backfires. Then came teams like the 2018 Capitals and 2019 Blues that had relatively quiet deadlines and still won it all, and you started to wonder if teams should just be sitting the market out altogether.
That was bad news for fans, because deadline day is one of the highlights of our season. So it’s nice to see a team like the Islanders, with a crusty old school GM in Lou Lamoriello, find success with an old school deadline. They gave up a first-round pick to get Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac from New Jersey, and they’ve been rewarded with seven goals from Palmieri, including an overtime winner. Mix in continued strong play from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, a 2019 deadline pickup who also cost a first, and the Islanders are showing that giving up high picks for playoff reinforcements can pay off. If other GMs decide to play copycat, future deadline could be a lot more fun.
Fun lesson 2: Getting aggressive on the draft floor can pay off.
Let’s stick with the trading theme. The Islanders’ win over Boston gave us another chance to relitigate the Mathew Barzal draft, which saw the Bruins pass on Barzal with three straight picks before the Islanders took him. But while that’s an important part of the story, let’s not forget how the Islanders got that pick in the first place: By making a draft floor deal with the Oilers, sending Griffin Reinhart to Edmonton for that pick and another. The deal was officially done with the Oilers on the clock and just minutes to spare. It’s fair to say it worked out.
Draft floor deals are great fun for fans, who love it when Gary Bettman shows up at the podium to tell us he has a trade to announce. But pulling them off is tricky, especially when they involve players and not just picks. GMs love to tell us how much time they need to put even straightforward deals together; how often do you hear that a team “just ran out of time” on a midseason trade that’s been rumored for months? On the draft floor, you might have hours or even minutes to make up your mind, and it would be easy to panic and make a mistake. It might be tempting for a GM to just forget about even trying anything more complicated than moving up or down a few picks.
The Islanders didn’t see it that way in 2015, and their reward was the best player on a Cup contending team. If they win it all, there’s no excuse for NHL GMs not to work the phones with the clock ticking on the draft floor.
Fun lesson 3: It pays to be aggressive in who you hire.
This one’s a bit dicey, since nobody likes to root for anyone to get fired. But changes, both behind the bench and in the front office, are a part of life that no NHL team can avoid. So when that moment comes, who do you hire?
You could go the safe route, promoting from within. You could find a candidate who isn’t well-known but deserves a shot. Often, those are the best options. But for pure entertainment value, there’s nothing quite like finding out that your team just hired a big name. And that’s what the Islanders did in 2018, hiring Lamoriello as team president. Lamoriello quickly fired Garth Snow and Doug Weight, named himself GM, and hired Cup-winning coach Barry Trotz. Three years later, Trotz has a Jack Adams, Lamoriello was last season’s GM of the year, and the Islanders have been contenders ever since they went big on hiring the best.
And one lesson to avoid: Defense wins championships.
OK, let’s get this out of the way, because it’s the big one when it comes to the Islanders. We’re all terrified that they’re going to win the Cup, followed by every GM trying to implement a boring, grind-it-out, put everyone to sleep and win 2-1 type of style. Bring back the dead puck era, because it’s the 1995 Devils all over again.
But while there’s some truth to that reputation – the Islanders really can shut down just about anyone when they’re on their game – it’s gotten out of hand. If you listened to some fans (and media), you’d think the Islanders are playing a passive trap and trying to clutch-and-grab their way to wins. That’s not what they do, as Justin Bourne broke down here.
>> Read the full post at The Athletic
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In the Friday Grab Bag:
- Are hockey fans allowed to be happy? A debate.
- Our dream of the Ultimate Ultimate Playoff loser dies
- Remembering the only player in NHL history to score in the playoffs but never play in the regular season
- The month's three comedy stars
- And a YouTube look back at the time Conan O'Brien took to the ice with (some of) the Toronto the Maple Leafs
>> Read the full post at The Athletic
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On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- We're both terrified of Jeff Petry's eyes
- The Habs come tied with Vegas, but does it change the narrative around the North Division?
- Ian makes the case for Tyler Toffoli being best free agent signing by a Canadian-based team in the past decade
- After two obvious blown calls in Lightning/Isles, is it time for expanded replay review?
- Nikita Kucherov looks like the favorite for the Conn Smythe
- Jesse Granger drops by and we decide the odds on Habs/Knight are out of whack
- Who would you rather have drafted in 1990, Jaromir Jagr or Martin Brodeur?
- Plus a look back at the NHL's only coach trade and more...
The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)
On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- The Islanders and Lightning are tied, and two missed calls stir up controversy
- What the rulebook actually says about too many men, and why it's not what you think
- Thoughts on the Golden Knights' impressive win over Montreal
- An argument breaks out over what makes a winning team
- We get some coaching clarity with the Rangers and (we think) Hurricanes
- Thoughts of Dougie Hamilton, Jack Eichel and other looming offseason moves
- OUFL beach activities, bad commercials, the kool-aid guy and more...
>> Stream it now:
>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.
>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.
On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- I have once again predicted the future and Ian is kind of weirded out by it
- We're definitely getting Islanders/Habs in the final and it's going to be terrible but that's OK
- Are Barry Trotz and Jon Cooper the two best coaches in the league?
- Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele speak to the media and it got strange
- Is Shea Weber a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer?
- I get to tell the story of The Wheel again
- Ian and I remember the night we bullied Jon Cooper in a bar at 1:00 am, and more...
The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)
On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- The Canadiens sweep the Jets
- The Golden Knights have the Avs on the ropes
- Bruce Cassidy works the refs
- What's next for the Jets and Hurricanes
- An argument breaks out about Victor Hedman and the Norris
- OUFL arena songs, a tangent about baseball, and more...
>> Stream it now:
>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.
>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.
On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- The Habs beats the Jets but its overshadowed by a scary injury
- Should Scheifele be suspended? Was he trying to inure Jake Evans?
- Wrapping up another Leafs loss
- With a 2-0 lead on the Golden Knights, are the Avalanche inevitable?
- Ideas for spicing up the draft lottery
- Thoughts on where Seth Jones might end up
- This week in hockey history featuring the most famous stick measurement ever, and lots more...
The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)
On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Breaking down the Leaf's latest loss
- Checking on the second round
- The Seth Jones trade watch begins
- Which coaches will wind up where
- The draft lottery
- OUFL trail mix and more...
>> Stream it now:
>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.
>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.
Here we go again. Of course.
Who could have ever seen this coming? Well, everyone, but that’s the grind of being a Leafs fan. We all know the collapse is coming, but when it does we all have to pretend like it’s unexpected, because the story doesn’t work as well if we don’t. I laid out exactly how Games 5 and 6 would go on two different podcasts last week, and people still want to know if I’m surprised. Dude, this isn’t my first day here. A good rule of thumb is that anyone who tells you a joke about Leafs fans saying “plan the parade” has never met an actual Leafs fan. We all expected this, on some level.
The Toronto Maple Leafs experience is a world of contrasts, and you just kind of have to go with it even when it doesn’t make sense. The team sucks, except when they’re about to lose an upset, in which case they’re amazing and should be unbeatable, but also suck. The fans don’t demand a winner like they do in other cities, but they also drive players out of town with their unreasonable expectations. They’re too soft, but also dirty, and the refs are out to get them, but the league wants them to win.
Pick and choose whatever works for the narrative you want to push at any given moment. Nothing has to be consistent. Except one thing: This team is exhausting.
Always. When they’re winning or when they’re losing. When they matter and when they don’t. On opening night and in the playoffs and at the deadline and in August when nobody else is even paying attention. If you’re a Leafs fan, you get all the highs and lows that any other fan base gets, although it’s more of the latter. But the one thing you never get is a day off. This team can never just do what they’re supposed to do. There’s never a straight line between point A and point B, because that would be too easy, and this team never does easy.
>> Read the full post at The Athletic
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On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- Ian thinks Leafs/Habs has been boring, is he right?
- A short rant about goaltending interference reviews
- The Penguins are out, now what?
- The Knights and Wild head to Game 7
- What should the Panthers do with their goaltending?
- Playoff trends, Mark Messier's guarantee, coach vs. GMs and more...
Plus a special bonus segment: Ian hits me with one of his patented trivia questions
The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)
On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Greg got bodychecked by Tom Wilson and died so Sean Gentille fills in
- Wayne Gretzky heads to TNT while Stephen A. Smith weighs in on the playoffs
- The Oilers get swept; what's next for Edmonton?
- The Blues and Caps are out too
- We run through the series that are still going on
- My thoughts on Leafs/Habs, which I want to make very clear is not over
- It's the playoffs so everyone's mad about the officiating
- Those weird MLB hats, OUFL Summer Olympic events and more...
>> Stream it now:
>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.
>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.
On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- Ian and I look ahead of Leafs/Habs
- Reacting to the playoffs so far
- Nazem Kadri is facing another suspension
- Alexander Ovechkin blows up at his teammates
- Jesse Granger on playoff betting trends
- Wait why there are commercial breaks in overtime now?
- What was the most important NHL goal ever scored outside the Cup final?
- And lots more...
The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)
Playoff pressure comes in different levels. Every game is crucial, and every team wants to win. But what if you don’t? After all, 15 teams are eliminated in every postseason, but the reactions can be very different. Some teams, if they’re being honest, might just be happy to be there, and consider any kind of postseason success as a bonus. Other teams absolutely need to go on a deep run or even win it all, or else the world will end and everyone will be fired, traded or jettisoned into the center of the sun.
So today, let’s go through the 16 teams that are still alive and rank them based on how much pressure they’re under to have a successful postseason. We’ll do this scientifically, assigning scores to some key categories.
Expectations factor: How far does everyone expect you to go? Everyone wants to be the favorite, but that brings extra attention and more pressure, while being an underdog takes some of the heat off.
Drought factor: How long has it been since a team has had postseason success? If your fan base is still working off the hangover from the last Cup celebration, you can’t be under that much pressure. But if its been a rough last few years (or decades), the temperature gets turned up.
Ticking clock factor: Some teams are built to last, while others are running out of chances. Is there reason to think that this might be a last chance for this team to contend, due to age, salary cap, pending departures or other factors? A closing window ratchets up the pressure significantly.
Special circumstances: A chance for me to cheat weight any additional factors that don’t fit into the previous three categories.
We’ll start from the bottom, which is to say the team facing the least pressure, and work our way up to a top spot selection that I’m sure will come as a jaw-dropping surprise to all of you. Let’s do this…
Expectations factor: 0/10. They weren’t even supposed to make the playoffs until they got hot in the second half. Now they’re facing a Presidents’ Trophy near-miss that may not even be the best team in the division.
Drought factor: 5/10. The Predators have never won a Cup. Neither has David Poile.
Ticking clock factor: 6/10. The core is getting up there, Filip Forsberg is one more year away from UFA status, and this is almost certainly the last chance to get a Cup for Pekka Rinne in Nashville.
Special circumstances: +1. Their late run meant they passed on a chance to be the deadline’s biggest sellers. It was the right call, but will feel like a missed opportunity if they just go out in four.
Pressure score: 12/30. They’re under the least pressure of any playoff team. Which is to say, still a ton of pressure.
Expectations factor: 3/10. Expectations were reasonably high heading into the season. Now? Not so much, as the Blues will have to go through two of the best teams in the league just to get out of the division and look like enormous underdogs. Mix in an ongoing COVID situation, and the deck is stacked against them.
Drought factor: 1/10. Blues fans who waited five decades for the franchise’s first Stanley Cup shouldn’t even be paying attention to this season, because they’re still celebrating from two years ago.
Ticking clock factor: 7/10. There’s no imminent exodus coming, but the core of this team is almost entirely made up of guys in their late 20s and early 30s, and they look like they’ll lose a few key players to free agency.
Special circumstances: +2. Maybe this is just me, but it sure feels like there’s more pressure on the Blues than there should be, right? By all rights, they should still be paying with house money after 2019. But Doug Armstrong and Craig Berube aren’t exactly giving off the vibe.
Pressure score: 13/30. When your team finally wins a Cup after a long drought, does that lower the pressure in future years? No really, I’m asking, I have no way of knowing.
Expectations factor: 1/10. Oh didn’t you hear, the Avalanche and Golden Knights are already scheduled to play for the Stanley Cup in round two.
Drought factor: 9/10. The Wild haven’t won a Cup in franchise history, and have only been out of the second round once, 18 years ago. And before that, the North Stars didn’t win in 26 seasons, including two trips to the final where they got to run into dynasties.
Ticking clock factor: 5/10. It’s Kirill Kaprizov’s team now, but guys like Ryan Suter and Zach Parise are winding down.
Special circumstances: -1. The Wild exceeded expectations and delivered arguably the most entertaining regular season in franchise history, so we’re kind of already into icing-on-the-cake territory here.
Pressure score: 14/30. But seriously, screw all those people raving about Knights/Avs, am I right?
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On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- We preview the two North Division series
- Where the other six series are at
- The Canucks get set to make changes, maybe
- Jeff Blashill keeps his job, and what that means for the Wings
- Rick Tocchet and Gerard Gallant interviewing for vacancies
- Filling out Greg's awards ballot
- A new quiz and more...
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The Athletic Hockey Show runs four days a week during the season, and will feature me with Other Sean Gentille on Wednesdays.
Puck Soup is a podcast featuring me and Ryan Lambert. We release one free episode each week during the season, plus mailbags and other bonus episodes for Patreon subscribers.
"Biscuits" was the Vice Sports hockey podcast, hosted by DGB and Dave Lozo. It ran for two seasons; the final episode was in July, 2018. You can find the archives below:
As of the 2018-19 season, my work will appear exclusively at The Athletic.
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Some of my archives from other sites can be found here:
