Playing “What if?” with four of the cap era’s biggest free agency decisions

We’re over a week into the free agency period, which means most of the big decisions have already been made. And we’ve seen plenty. The Canadiens chose to try an offer sheet on Sebastian Aho, and the Hurricanes chose to match. Artemi Panarin chose the Rangers over the Islanders and Blue Jackets. The Panthers chose to give $70 million to a goaltender. And the Predators chose to finally do whatever it took to land Matt Duchene, even if it meant giving up P.K. Subban.

Will some of those decisions turn out to be mistakes? Probably. That’s the beauty of this time of year. The GMs, owners, players and agents make the best choices they can, and the rest of us get to watch and see how it all turns out.

That’s always been the fun part for me, because I love a good round of “what if?” I mean, I really love it. I’m the guy who once wrote an entire alternate history of the NHL based on the Tom Kurvers trade never happening. I may have a problem. But I’m betting at least a few of you are right there with me.

So today, let’s look back on four key free agency-related scenarios from the salary cap era, and how history may have changed if they played out differently. As we’ll see, the decisions that get made at this time of year can have profound and sometimes unexpected impacts – not just on the teams and players involved, but on what does (and doesn’t) happen around the league as a result.

2006: What if the Senators choose Zdeno Chara over Wade Redden?

The situation: One year into the cap era, the Senators were Cup contenders who’d just finished the 2005-06 season with the best record in the East. But they were faced with a tricky offseason dilemma. Each of their two best defensemen, Wade Redden and Zdeno Chara, were on the brink of unrestricted free agency. And the team decided that they only had the budget and cap space to re-sign one of them.

So who would it be? Both players were coming off excellent seasons; Chara had finished fourth in Norris voting, while Redden was fifth. Chara was a rare combination of size and skill who’d taken a while to find his game in the NHL but had developed into one of the best defensemen in the league since being traded to Ottawa, having been named a first-team all-star in 2004. Redden hadn’t quite hit those heights but owned a longer track record, having been a consistent presence on the Ottawa blueline for a decade. Along with Daniel Alfredsson, he was the face of the franchise.

You can pick one. Who do you go with?

What happened: The decision went down to the wire, but ultimately the Senators chose Redden, re-signing him on the eve of free agency to a two-year extension that carried a $6.5 million cap hit. Chara became a UFA, and quickly signed a five-year deal with the Bruins with a $7.5 million cap hit.

Needless to say, it all worked out brilliantly for the Bruins. Chara has had 13 years and counting in Boston; he’s been a postseason all-star five times, won a Norris and been a finalist four other times, and led the team to a Stanley Cup in 2011. He’s almost certainly the greatest free agent signing of the cap era, and maybe even of all-time.

Redden finished out his two-year extension in Ottawa, playing reasonably well if not quite at an all-star level, before needing a new deal again in 2008. This time, the Senators couldn’t keep him, and even tried to get him to waive his no-trade clause on multiple occasions. He refused, denting his reputation with some Senators fans in the process, and eventually signed a six-year contract with the Rangers on the first day of free agency. That deal ended up being a bust, and Redden spent much of it in the AHL.

At the time, it had seemed like a tough call. In hindsight, it couldn’t have been more lopsided. And the Senators chose wrong.

But what if… : First things first. A lot of the “Redden vs. Chara” narrative has always felt a little too convenient. We don’t know a lot of what happened behind the scenes, including whether Chara ever really wanted to stay in Ottawa in the first place. It’s possible that the Senators just re-signed the player who wanted to stay to the best deal they could, and the rest of it is just a dramatic storyline slapped on top of some fairly standard cap management.

But that’s no fun. So let’s pretend that the Senators really were faced with an either/or choice. What if they’d chosen Chara, on the same sort of five-year deal he got from Boston?

Well, the first repercussion is that a big chunk of their fan base is furious. That’s the part of the story that gets skipped over these days, but as a hockey fan living in Ottawa at the time, I can tell you that it’s hard to overstate just how popular Redden was. He had his occasional detractors, like any player. But for most of his time as a Senator he was the golden boy, and the fans didn’t want to see him go.

Are the Senators better with Chara instead, even at a higher salary? In hindsight, absolutely, although it’s worth remembering that Redden helped them get to the Stanley Cup final in 2007. Do they win that final with Chara in the lineup? They might. And they almost definitely manage more than the two playoff game wins they had over the following four years. Could they have kept Chara on another deal beyond that? That gets dicey, but even if he’d bolted after five years, they’d have still come out ahead compared to two years of Redden.

Meanwhile, the Bruins lose out on their captain, and probably their 2011 Cup too. More bad news: they would have had an extra $7.5 million to spend in that 2006 offseason. Do they throw it at another blueliner, like Ed Jovanovski or Pavel Kubina? Or maybe one of the big forwards like Alex Tanguay or Martin Havlat? None of those options look great in hindsight. Take Chara off the market in 2006, and the next decade-plus of Bruins history starts to look very different.

On that note, here’s one more what-if to consider: What if Chara had hit the market, but chosen not to sign in Boston? According to reports, the other main bidder was the Los Angeles Kings. Would Chara have been as dominant in Los Angeles as he was in Boston? Probably. But that might not have been a good thing. If Chara improve the rebuilding Kings by just a few wins by Year 2, that moves them out of the second-overall pick in the 2008 draft, and probably makes Drew Doughty an Atlanta Thrasher. Do the Kings win two Cups with Chara instead of Doughty? And if you want to really get crazy, do the Thrashers improve enough after adding Doughty with the second-overall pick that they’re not in Winnipeg today? Bruins fans are happy that we never got to find out.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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A brief history of players being told that they wouldn’t be traded and then being traded

It’s​ been almost two​ weeks​ since​ the​ end​ of​ the William​ Nylander contract saga,​ with its twists​ and​ turns and last-minute​​ buzzer-beater resolution. As the round-the-clock coverage fades into more reasonable daily updates, we’re trying to sort through the various details that are emerging on how this deal was put together.

One of those details is Nylander’s apparent belief that Kyle Dubas has promised not to trade him.

Nylander says he has assurance from Dubas he won’t be traded while he’s the GM.

— James Mirtle (@mirtle) December 3, 2018

Because of the way the CBA works, the personal word of his GM is the only sort of trade protection Nylander can get; players aren’t eligible for no-trade or no-movement clauses until the reach their UFA-eligibility seasons. So Nylander has to rely on Dubas to hold up his end of the bargain here.

And Dubas probably will – after all, trading Nylander wouldn’t make much sense for the Leafs, and this is a rookie GM who’d no doubt prefer to establish a reputation as a straight-shooter. Assuming Nylander’s version of the conversation is accurate and Dubas really did give his word, there’s no reason to think that the young winger has anything to worry about here.

But just to be safe, he might want to stop reading right about now.

Because as it turns out, NHL history is filled with players who’ve believed they’d been given the same sort of assurance that Nylander says he got from the Maple Leafs. And more than a few times, those promises turned out to not be quite as ironclad as the player would have hoped.

So today, let’s look back at a few of the (many) trade scenarios in hockey history that started with a firm handshake or at least a perceived wink and nudge and ended with a player angrily mumbling about loyalty while packing a suitcase.

1975: The Bruins trade Phil Esposito to the Rangers

We’ll start with what may stand as the most famous example of the genre: the 1975 blockbuster that saw the Bruins trade Esposito and Carol Vadnais to the Rangers for Brad Park, Jean Ratelle and a minor-leaguer. It was a monster deal, one that saw New York acquire the player who’d led the league in goals in each of the last six seasons. And it didn’t make Esposito very happy.

That was because he’d signed a new contract that summer that he assumed would let him finish his career in Boston. He’d reportedly been offered $2.5 million on a five-year deal to join the WHA’s Vancouver Blazers, but took roughly half that to stay with the Bruins. According to Esposito’s version of events, Harry Sinden promised him that he wouldn’t be traded, and even offered to write a no-trade clause into the deal, which at the time was rare. Esposito says he told the GM not to bother, and that his word was enough. Weeks later, he was gone.

The trade, of course, ended up being a steal for the Bruins. Esposito played well in New York, but Park became the best player in the deal. And it got even more lopsided when the Rangers decided to reunite Esposito with center Ken Hodge, and sent a young Rick Middleton to the Bruins to get him. Park and Middleton became key parts of the late-70s Bruins teams that nearly won the Cup.

At the time of the trade, Esposito told reporters that he was “crushed” and that “I thought I had a home in Boston.” But he said he had “no regrets” toward Sinden or the Bruins. That tone would change over the years, as Esposito carried the grudge well past retirement. In 2013, almost 38 years after the trade went down, he was asked about the Bruins facing the Blackhawks in the Cup final and responded that “This series doesn’t mean shit to me.”

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

Podcast: What are the Panthers doing?

In this week's episode of Biscuits, the Vice Sports hockey podcast:
- What the hell is going on with the Panthers front office? (I'm pretty sure I've figured it out.)
- Where will Jarome Iginla be traded, and which scenario would cause the most chaos?
- Are the Bruins actually this year's sneaky good team?
- Why Dave hates the current playoff format
- The choice the Islanders are about make that will tell us whether they're serious about winning or not
- More sad defeated sighs delivered in a Canadian accent
- And lots more

>> Stream it now on Vice Sports

>> Or, subscribe on iTunes.

Once more unto the abyss: A game-by-game breakdown of the Blue Jackets' horrible start

It’s over. With Saturday night’s 4-3 decision over the Avalanche, the Blue Jackets finally snapped an eight-game losing streak and got into the win column for the first time on the season. The streak is dead.

It’s hard to overstate just how awful the Blue Jackets’ 0-8-0 start had been. The NHL has a long and glorious history of teams getting off to season-crushingly terrible starts, but none quite like this. No team in the past seven decades has managed to start a season without earning so much as a single point through its first eight games. None of the modern era’s biggest losers — not the 1974-75 Capitals, or the 1992-93 Senators or Sharks, or even the 2009-2010 Maple Leafs — had ever face-planted out of the gate quite that badly.

You have to go all the way back to the 1940s to find a start as bad as the one the Blue Jackets just suffered through. That would be the 1943-44 Rangers, who lost their first 11 and didn’t win a game until mid-December. And while the Blue Jackets didn’t quite reach that level of futility, when you factor in the weight of expectations (not to mention the presence of the loser point), I think there’s a pretty reasonable case to be made that the Blue Jackets’ start was the worst the NHL has ever seen, from anyone, at any time.

Remember, it was only three weeks ago that the Blue Jackets were itching to drop the puck on a regular season that was teeming with optimism. After a strong finish to 2014-15, a big trade in the offseason, and a strong performance over the preseason schedule, the Blue Jackets were ready to storm out of the gate and claim a place among the Metro’s contenders. Some well-known experts were even picking them to go to the conference finals.

And then came 0-8-0. And while it’s over now, like all wonderful things, we shouldn’t let The Streak fade into the fringes of our memories. No, we need to cherish it, to hold it close, to press it tightly against our cold little hockey fan hearts. And so today, we’re going to say goodbye to the Blue Jackets’ losing streak in the best way we know how: By reliving it, one game at a time. For Blue Jackets fans, it will be cathartic. For the rest of us, well, it might make us feel better about our own lousy teams.

So travel back with me to a time long past, in a long-ago era when the city of Columbus was happy and the Blue Jackets were going to be good. Eighteen whole days ago, to be precise.

0-1-0 — October 9, Rangers at Blue Jackets

The opponent: The Blue Jackets don’t get any early favors from the schedule-maker, as they start the season with a home-and-home against the team that won the Metro last season.

Reason for optimism: Sure, it’s a tough opponent, but that’s what you want, right? This is going to be the year that the Blue Jackets establish themselves as contenders in the Metro, and there’s no better way to send a message than by beating the defending champs.

Columbus fans are thinking: The Rangers, huh? Good. It’s like your first day in prison — you go over to the biggest guy in the yard and pop him in the mouth, right?

Bad omen: Less than a minute in, the Blue Jackets are storming the Rangers’ crease when a loose puck squirts out to Ryan Murray, who has an open net. He fans on the shot.

What happened: With the game tied at 1 with less than four minutes to go in the third, big offseason acquisition Brandon Saad scores on the power play to give the Blue Jackets the lead. But then they collapse, giving up two Rangers goals in 17 seconds, then one more a minute after that. The Rangers win, 4-2.

Highlight: The Blue Jackets look great early on, taking the game to New York in front of a raucous home crowd. When Saad snaps home what looks like it will be the winner, the place comes unglued. This season is going to be fun!

Lowlight: Kevin Hayes’ game winner is awful, coming on a nearly impossible angle from deep in the corner.

Depressing postgame quote: “It’s early in the season. I’m not going to read too much into it after one game,” says team captain Nick Foligno, while wondering where all that foreshadowing thunder and lightning is coming from.

Sadness rating: 2/10. OK, that hurts, but nobody was expecting them to go 82-0-0. And hey, at least they get a quick rematch, right?

0-2-0 — October 10, Blue Jackets at Rangers

The opponent: The Rangers. You may remember them from their recent work in “Three goals in 77 seconds.”

Reason for optimism: Despite the loss, the Blue Jackets had been the better team for 57 minutes the night before. They just need to put together a full game this time.

Columbus fans are thinking: You know, a split here won’t be the worst thing in the world.

Bad omen: Just 80 seconds in, a brutal giveaway by Fedor Tyutin results in a Rangers 2-on-0 in front of Sergei Bobrovsky that Oscar Lindberg buries.

What happened: Lindberg adds another, followed by Dominic Moore, and the Blue Jackets are down 3-0 before the game is six minutes old. They go on to lose, 5-2.

Highlight: Late in the first, Bobrovsky stops Rangers sniper Rick Nash on a penalty shot, because it’s becoming apparent than no Blue Jackets draft pick will ever score a big goal again.

Lowlight: When Moore finds the net, the Blue Jackets have surrendered six goals in less than nine minutes of action against the Rangers over two nights.

Depressing postgame quote: “We aren’t going to win games by giving up five goals,” predicts head coach Todd Richards. Accurately, as it turns out.

Sadness rating: 4/10. OK, tough start. But luckily, the schedule serves up a cupcake next...

>> Read the full post on Grantland

Offseason Bizarro-meter rankings: The Western Conference

NHL offseason, Week 3. Nothing is happening. Nobody is making trades. All the good free agents are gone. We’re reduced to arguing about arbitration hearings. Some poor souls among us have gone completely mad and started covering rookie camps. And, worst of all, we still have another full month of this to go.

And that means it’s time to once again fire up Grantland’s NHL Offseason Bizarro-meter, the highly sophisticated technology that takes into account every decision a team has made during its offseason, weighs them against other options that were available, and then spits out a ranking that I have basically made up based on a complex and proprietary formula.

We took the system for a test run in 2013, using a Toronto Maple Leafs offseason that by now is widely considered one of the worst in league history. Last year, we opened it up to the entire league in an attempt to figure out which team had put together the strangest offseason. The winner: the San Jose Sharks, with an impressive score of 9.4. Can somebody beat that this year? We’re about to find out.

Before we get started, a reminder that “bizarre” doesn’t necessarily mean bad. A team can lose its mind and spend the summer doing a bunch of crazy things that somehow end up working. A team can also play it conservative, make all the expected moves and nothing more, and end up worse off because of it. A high score on the Bizarro-meter doesn’t necessarily mean your favorite team is screwed. But it might be.

Today, we’re going to start in the Western Conference, home of the reigning Stanley Cup winners, the league’s best division, and last year’s Bizarro-meter champ.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Winnipeg Jets

Their offseason so far: They managed to keep free agents Drew Stafford and Adam Pardy. But they lost Michael Frolik to free agency, along with midseason pickups Jiri Tlusty and Lee Stempniak.

But their strangest move was: Bringing back Alexander Burmistrov, the young Russian forward they’d taken with the eighth overall pick in 2010 but who bolted for the KHL in 2013. There’s been bad blood between management and Burmistrov, so it was mildly surprising to see him return, but he has talent. He’s a risk, but at a cap hit of just $1.55 million, he’s a reasonable one.

Bizarro-meter reading: 3.8/10. Not much to see here, as the Jets continue their slow-but-steady ascent. The big question is whether slow but steady is going to cut it when the toughest division in hockey keeps getting better.

Minnesota Wild

Their offseason so far: It’s another quiet one, although they did buy out veteran Matt Cooke and let various supporting-cast veterans walk. They also signed college free agent Mike Reilly to a deal that absolutely nobody saw coming except for everybody.

But their strangest move was: Re-signing Vezina finalist and season savior Devan Dubnyk, which wasn’t bizarre because it happened (everyone assumed it would), but because of how long it took (the deal came only a few days before Dubnyk would have hit free agency).

Bizarro-meter reading: 3.9/10. Much like the Jets, nothing jumps out as a mistake. But a veteran team that’s now lost to the Blackhawks three straight years didn’t really get any better, and that makes it tough to see a clear path out of the division for a team that spent big to become a contender.

Dallas Stars

Their offseason so far: They added a pair of Blackhawks veterans in Johnny Oduya and Patrick Sharp. The former was a free agent on a nice deal; the latter came in a trade that cost them Trevor Daley, who’d been a useful defenseman and whose skates Oduya will be expected to fill.

But their strangest move was: Signing goaltender Antti Niemi to share crease duties with Kari Lehtonen. Goaltending was an issue last season, sure, but now they’ll be spending well more than $10 million in cap space on the position, which is almost unheard of in today’s NHL.

Bizarro-meter reading: 4.2/10. The moves for former Blackhawks made headlines but weren’t all that bizarre — in theory, they improved themselves and weakened the team they’re chasing. The Stars certainly seem to be in “win now” mode, which is a bit odd given that they didn’t win much last season, but at least for today they look like a playoff team.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

The most (and least) surprising moments from NHL draft weekend

The NHL’s draft weekend is, in theory, a pretty straightforward affair. It’s the annual chance to divide up all the incoming young talent, with teams making their picks, posing for a few photos, and heading home.

In reality, draft weekend often ends up feeling like 90 percent of the league’s offseason crammed into a few days. The combination of having all 30 front offices in one city, incoming cap space, and free agency looming just days away builds up into a whirlwind of rumors, speculation, and (eventually) action.

Some of it works out the way we expect. Some of it doesn’t. So let’s take a look back at this year’s just-concluded draft weekend in stifling Sunrise, Florida, by breaking down all the major moves based on just how surprising they were.

Connor McDavid going first overall: 0/100 — No surprise here; we’ve known that McDavid would be the first overall pick of the 2015 draft for the last three years. He’s the most heavily hyped prospect since Sidney Crosby, and his ridiculous numbers in junior this year — he had 120 points in just 47 games — just reaffirmed his status as the game’s Next Big Thing.

The question now is this: How big? And how quickly? McDavid goes to an Oilers franchise that hasn’t been good at anything other than winning draft lotteries in almost a decade. His arrival, and the front office overhaul the franchise underwent while anticipating it, should spell the end of the Oilers’ misery. The question is how quickly he can get them into the playoffs, and then into Cup contention.

We have some history to look back on. Crosby had 102 points as a rookie in the high-scoring post-lockout 2005-06 season, but Pittsburgh didn’t return to the playoffs until the following year. The Penguins went to the Cup final the year after that, and then won it all in 2009. Alexander Ovechkin debuted the same year as Crosby, but the Caps didn’t make the playoffs until his third season, and they still haven’t been to a final. The Blackhawks debuted the double whammy of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in 2007-08, missed the playoffs, and had won their first Stanley Cup by 2010.

So if you’re an Oilers fan, there’s your realistic window: one more tough season, playoff favorite status the year after that, and Stanley Cup contention soon after. It’s no sure thing, of course, but I’m guessing long-suffering Oilers fans will take it.

McDavid’s selection was the least surprising moment of the entire weekend. Well, except for this one …

This whole thing being a disaster: 0/100 — Let’s play a game called “How the hell did this happen?”

Scene: League headquarters.

NHL executive: “So, Connor McDavid has finally arrived in the NHL. How can we make the best possible first impression with this incredibly marketable new asset?”

Intern: “Hey, has anyone checked to see if the owner of the Oilers would want to awkwardly corner him on live television, then babble on about how wonderful his terrible organization is while blatantly reading off a cue card?”

NHL executive: “Great idea. Did anyone check it with Connor?”

Intern: “Sure did. He said he’d spend the entire segment visibly trying to swallow his own tongue.”

NHL executive: “Awesome, let’s do it!”

>> Read the full post on Grantland

The Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup... again

One of those odd unwritten rules of pro hockey is that your entire life revolves around winning the Stanley Cup, but when you’re one game away from actually doing it, you have to pretend like you haven’t noticed. You have to claim it’s just another game, and maybe even feign some degree of surprise that anyone would treat it any other way.

So Monday, hours away from a chance at capturing their third Stanley Cup in six years, that’s what the Blackhawks did. After their morning skate, player after player swore that the night would be like any other game. They repeated it like a mantra, almost robotically. Just another game. No big deal. It’s only a championship on the line. For their part, the Lightning were just as coy, shrugging off any suggestions that having their very playoff lives on the line made this game any sort of big deal.

The charade lasted all morning, right up until Lightning coach Jon Cooper addressed the media. He was asked whether this was, indeed, just another game.

“No chance,” he replied, incredulous. “The Stanley Cup’s in the building. I can’t believe they would say, ‘Oh, it’s just another game.’”

“We know it’s just not another game,” he continued, gaining steam as he went. “This is much different than Game 1. You got to win or you go home. On the other side, you know what happens if they win.”

“No. I don’t like to sugarcoat anything. This is the reality of the business we’re in.”

He’s right, of course, even if he’s not supposed to say it. This wasn’t just another game. As it turns out, it would be the last game of the series and the season, and the one that saw a new dynasty crowned. And it would be the night the reality Cooper spoke of finally caught up with the Lightning.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

How much does Stanley Cup Final experience matter?

The numbers are jarring, bordering on unfair. The Chicago Blackhawks come into this final with a roster that boasts 26 Stanley Cup rings. Most of the core, including Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Duncan Keith, each have two.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, by comparison, have one. That’s it. One ring, total, from an entire roster. And that one, belonging to Valtteri Filppula, is seven years old.

This Lightning team is young. And more importantly, the core is remarkably young. The captain, Steven Stamkos, is 25. The best defenseman, Victor Hedman, is 24. The top line features Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, both 24, along with Nikita Kucherov, who is 21. The starting goalie, Ben Bishop, is a comparatively ancient 28, but he’d never played a NHL playoff game until this season. The guy who has been given the task of shutting down Toews is Cedric Paquette, a 21-year-old rookie who’s so young that coach Jon Cooper didn’t even tell him about his assignment for fear of throwing him off his game.

Total Stanley Cup final games played between the group of them, heading into Wednesday’s Game 1: zero. And they’re facing a Blackhawks team making its third trip in six years. The Lightning have never been here before; the Blackhawks practically live here. In a series in which most of the matchups are too close to call, the experience factor is a laughably one-sided mismatch.

The question is, will any of it matter?

As fans, we love the idea that experience counts, and that having been there before confers some sort of advantage. It feeds into something we want to believe about how difficult this game’s journey to a championship really is. We drone on endlessly about the Stanley Cup being the hardest trophy to win in all of sports, and if that’s really true, then it seems like something that you shouldn’t be able to do on the first try. We want to see you fail, and learn from that, and then come back older and wiser, having finally figured out how to win.

However, the Stanley Cup memories we seem to love best all play against this theme. It’s Ray Bourque finally getting his hands on the Cup after two decades. It’s the lightbulb going off for Steve Yzerman and the Red Wings. It’s the 1983 Oilers, young and cocky, getting their butts kicked by the veteran Islanders, and only then realizing how much further they had to go.

And because we love the idea so much, we tend to forget about the stories that don’t fit the narrative. We forget about the teams that skip the years of hardship and near misses and jump straight to a championship. If anything, they’re the exceptions that prove the rule.

There’s a common-sense test that kicks in here, and the experience mythos doesn’t exactly pass with flying colors. After all, how much different can playing for the Stanley Cup really be? How much can a game that most of these guys have been playing their entire lives really change — how much more can there really be to learn, simply because it’s the Cup?

Is it possible that we’ve all just been telling ourselves a story? Could any of this possibly matter as much as we want it to?

Hockey fans have argued about the subject for decades, and attempts have been made to quantify it. One recent study suggested that experience may have mattered in the pre-cap era but doesn’t seem to anymore. But maybe it’s the sort of thing that you can’t really capture with the numbers. Maybe you really do have to have been there, under the bright lights and a few million eyes, and had the chance to feel it in your gut.

Lightning defenseman Matt Carle is one of the few Tampa Bay players who has been here before, back in 2010 with the Flyers. That would seem to give him license to buy into the idea. But when he was asked about it on Wednesday, he wouldn’t take the bait.

“It’s hockey, you know? It’s the same sized ice sheet. Same building we’ve always been playing in,” Carle said. Then he gestured at a locker room packed full of media. “This is the only thing that’s really different, is how many people are in here covering the series, and the people watching. That’s all that’s different.”

“Once the puck drops, we’re just trying to play a structured system and play the way we know how … Once that puck drops, it’s playing hockey and having fun.”

Stamkos hasn’t been here before, but his words echoed Carle’s when I asked him if anything about playing in the final would feel different.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

In praise of the Negative Value Guy

In the NHL’s salary cap era, a good player with a bad contract is not a good player.

Or at least, he’s not a good asset, which these days is essentially the same thing. It’s no longer enough to judge players based on what they can do on the ice while letting the front-office accountants worry about who makes what and for how long. In a league that features a hard cap and guaranteed deals, a player’s value is inescapably tied to his contract.

None of what I just wrote is remotely controversial. On its own, it’s probably not even all that interesting. Every NHL fan understands this sort of thing on some level, and talk of contracts and cap hits permeates the discussion of any player. It’s why we all lost our minds when CapGeek went away — smart fans need this stuff to function. And it’s why we can have those fun arguments over whether you’d rather have Jonathan Toews and his monster contract or John Tavares and his bargain one.

But a funny thing happens when you start working your way down the list and follow this kind of thinking as far as it can go. As sports fans, we’re used to valuing players on a sliding scale from “really valuable” to “not valuable at all.” We’ll argue over who gets what label, of course, but the basic rules remain the same. A good player is worth a lot; a bad player is worth next to nothing; a truly terrible player may even be worth nothing at all.

Once a hard cap comes into play, things can get unintuitive. You start to realize that “no value” isn’t really the bottom of the scale after all. A player with an especially bad contract can’t really be said to be worth nothing, because that’s being too kind. He might actually be worth less than nothing. We’ve hit the floor and kept on digging, and down there we meet a relatively new specimen in the hockey world: the Negative Value Guy.

Again, this isn’t some sort of new concept — in other sports, fancy stats based on concepts like VORP (value over replacement player) and WAR (wins above replacement) have flagged players with negative value for years. But that’s based on what happens on the field, and those players tend to be rare, a type of outlier you rarely see sticking around for long. Hockey doesn’t have a widely accepted all-in-one value stat like that yet, but if it did we’d no doubt see the same thing: a handful of players kicking around the league who probably didn’t really belong based on their production.

I’d argue that once you start factoring in contracts and cap hits, we’re no longer talking about a handful of fringe players who dip ever so slightly into negative territory. There are lots of negative value guys, and you’ll find them on just about every NHL team. That’s because we’re no longer talking about a player’s value to his team in between whistles during a given game, but his value to his franchise as an asset.

Here’s one way to think of it: An NHL player is a negative value guy if he can be made available on the open market, at no cost, and nobody would want him. If that happened, we’d know that even “free” was too high a price to pay to acquire someone. That’s negative value.

And of course, that exact scenario plays out all the time. It’s called waivers, and it’s the way that NHL teams can make a player available to any other team in the league. Here he is, they say. If you want him, he’s all yours. You just have to assume his full contract.

Sure enough, on most days during the season, a player or two hits the waiver wire. And in the vast majority of cases, the player clears. Those guys, at least temporarily, have negative value in the eyes of the free market. Around the league, 29 other teams take a look at a potential asset being offered up for free and say, “No thanks, you go ahead and keep him.”

A lot of those players are fringe NHLers whom fans have barely heard of. But bigger names occasionally go through the process, and we saw one example just two weeks ago, when the Los Angeles Kings waived center Mike Richards.

Richards is a reliable two-way player, one who’s won gold on the Canadian Olympic team and two Stanley Cups. He’s certainly not the player he once was — he scored 80 points as a 23-year-old in 2008-09, but his offensive numbers have been dropping steadily for five seasons. This year, he’d spent time on the Kings fourth line and was even a healthy scratch on some nights, so his days of making all-star teams appear over. But on the verge of turning 30 and in his 10th NHL season, Richards is exactly the sort of battle-tested veteran with a winning pedigree over whom teams used to get into bidding wars. Even if his game isn’t what it once was, you’d think he belongs on an NHL roster.

And yet he cleared waivers. Richards may not be a bad player, but he comes with a terrible contract, one that carries a $5.75 million cap hit through 2020. That’s too much money and way too many years for a guy who contributes what Richards does. And in today’s NHL, that makes him a negative value guy.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

NHL offseason primer

Hey, remember when that one team won the Stanley Cup? Seemed like a good team; I think they wore black. I seem to recall something about a grumpy coach who took off his shirt during the parade, although that may have been a nightmare I had.

But it’s easy to forget all that these days. After all, the Stanley Cup final ended 10 days ago, and that’s quite a while in the NHL at this time of year. We’re now firmly into offseason mode, and the next few weeks are the busiest of the year for NHL front offices working toward reshaping their franchises.

By the end of next week, rosters around the league will look very different than they do right now. Some teams will have transformed themselves into contenders; others will tread water; and a special few will manage to ruin any chances they had.

Here’s a guide to what to look for between now and then.

Compliance Buyout Window

The first order of business is the buyout period, which has already started. Buyouts can fall into two categories, and while players can also be bought out the old-fashioned way, accompanied by a cap-hit penalty that lasts twice the number of years remaining on their deal, the real focus will be on compliance buyouts.

Last year’s CBA gave each team two compliance buyouts,¹ and this is the last year they can be used. A player who receives this kind of buyout still gets his money, but his cap hit disappears from the books.

It’s a two-step process, with players first needing to clear waivers before a team can make the buyout official. Several players hit the wire over the first few days, including Aaron Rome, Jordin Tootoo, and David Booth; we also saw the merciful end of the Ville Leino era in Buffalo. But the biggest news broke late last week.

First up came the Rangers’ buyout of Brad Richards, whose impending doom was an uncomfortable side plot of the Rangers’ Cup playoffs run. His age (34) and contract (six years left at a $6.67 million cap hit) made the move inevitable, and having his ice time cut in the final basically sealed the deal. He’ll land on his feet somewhere, but the Rangers really had no choice.

The Kings faced a similar dilemma with Mike Richards, although he was never the sure thing his Rangers namesake seems to be. But he owns a similar contract² and really seemed to have lost a step during the team’s playoff run. You’ll note that I said “owns,” as in present tense — the team eventually ended the speculation by announcing that it wouldn’t be buying him out.

That leaves a few more players still awaiting word on their fates, including:

Martin Havlat, San Jose Sharks: The onetime star was a healthy scratch during the playoffs and carries a cap hit of $5 million next year. On a team looking to make changes, this one’s an easy call. He’s gone.

Ryan Malone, Tampa Bay Lightning: Declining production mixed with problems off the ice and a $4.5 million cap hit mean that, like Havlat, he’s all but a sure thing.

Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins: If he’d struggled again in the playoffs, Fleury probably would have been another easy call. Instead, he played fine, and that could be enough for the Penguins to hold on to him. Pittsburgh has a new GM, and has indicated it may not use its buyouts at all. Also working in Fleury’s favor: His deal expires after next year.

The Trade Market

To some extent, the draft has replaced trade deadline day as the most likely source of blockbuster deals (with the added bonus of then seeing those deals awkwardly announced live by Gary Bettman). This year features an unusually high number of star players who could be moved. And you know what that means: Get ready to hear endless reports about teams wanting “a player, a pick, and a prospect.”

Here are five star players who could have new homes by Saturday:

>> Read the full post on Grantland

Rick Nash is not alone - Eight more struggling playoff stars

Rick Nash watch: Day 25. Two more shots on goal Sunday night against the Penguins. That brings the total to a league-leading 51. Yet still no … what do they call those things? Where the puck goes in the net and the red light goes on? It’s been so long, nobody can remember.

Luckily for Nash, misery loves company. And the Rangers winger has plenty of company around the league in the “struggling superstar” club. Here’s a look at one player from each of the eight remaining teams who is mired in an offensive drought.

Max Pacioretty, Montreal Canadiens

Montreal’s leading scorer doesn’t exactly have a long résumé of postseason success. His only prior playoff experience came last season, when he went pointless in four games, and he’d managed just a lone assist through the first three against the Lightning in the opening round. But he seemed as if he may have finally broken through when he scored the winning goal in Game 4, helping the Canadiens complete the sweep and setting up a second-round matchup with the Bruins.

But so far Boston has shut him down; he’s had no goals and two assists over the first five games. The Bruins have a habit of doing that — there may not be a team that’s better at it, and Pacioretty himself has acknowledged that Zdeno Chara is dominating their matchup. That can’t be an easy admission to make given the two players’ history, but it’s the reality.

Tonight’s Game 6 is in Montreal, meaning the Habs can use the last line change to try to get Pacioretty away from Chara (though the Bruins are generally very good at countering that strategy). If he can get going, Montreal has a decent shot at extending the series to a seventh game. If not, fans and media in this market will make sure he hears about it.

Mike Richards, Los Angeles Kings

Richards has been held to just three points through 11 games. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s also not the sort of thing that would ordinarily cause Kings fans to panic. After all, Richards hasn’t been a top scorer since he arrived in L.A. Instead, he’s built on his reputation as a solid two-way player who plays tough minutes against the opposition’s best players. You’d like to see him chip in offensively, sure, but you can live with lower scoring totals as long as he’s holding his opponents in check and making the players around him better.

But Richards hasn’t really done that, either; through the postseason, he’s yet to be on the ice for a 5-on-5 goal for (but has been on for five against). He has been on for more 5-on-5 shots for than against, which suggests he should be OK once the percentages start to even out. The question is whether the Kings will be able to last long enough against the surging Ducks for that to happen.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

The New York Rangers head coaching vacancy questionnaire

Messier aced the "Where is the
faceoff after every shot on goal
against the Flyers" question.

The New York Rangers have apparently found their new head coach. While the deal hasn't been formally signed, reports say that the Rangers have settled on former Canucks coach Alain Vigneault and will make the official announcement soon.

Assuming those reports are true, it will conclude a lengthy and at times bizarre search that involved plenty of big names. In addition to Vigneault, the Rangers were rumored to be considering legendary former players like Mark Messier and Wayne Gretzky, and even names like Ulf Samuelsson and Brian Leetch were mentioned.

According to reports, GM Glen Sather had each of the candidates fill out a questionnaire prior to being interviewed. It goes without saying that DGB spies were quickly able to locate a copy and pass it along.

***

Thank you for your interest in becoming the next coach of the New York Rangers. To help us process the many candidates we expect to apply, please fill out this brief questionnaire to help us get to know you.

Your first name: ________________
Your last name: ________________
Your nickname when you played with the Rangers, which we're just going to go ahead and assume you did: ________________

Date you are available to start work: ________________
Date you are available to stop work, if you make Henrik Lundqvist mad: ________________

Your salary demands: ________________
(Note: this form will be reviewed by Glen Sather, so just go ahead and write in literally anything for that last one.)

Do you have any experience as a head coach in an NHL market?
( ) No.
( ) Nope.
( ) None at all.
( ) Coached in Montreal and Vancouver for a total of 11 seasons
( ) Coached in Phoenix for four seasons, so… no.

What would you say is the most important skill that a New York Rangers coach must possess?
( ) Familiarity with the CBA's buyout section
( ) Ability to resist punching Larry Brooks
( ) Willingness to attend Stanley Cup parades every half-century whether you want to or not
( ) Staying calm during difficult times by quietly mumbling "Well, at least we're not the Sabres".

What do you like best about the current New York Rangers organization?
( ) Notice you have decided to go with one and only one starting goalie; kind of wish my old boss had thought of that.
( ) Love Ryan McDonagh's two-way game, and sure hope we have more guys like him being developed by our farm team in Montreal.
( ) Really like the way you always keep your "Days since we last employed Sean Avery" sign updated.
( ) Have so many good young leaders that a New York Ranger player will definitely be winning the Mark Messier Leadership Award every year for a long long time, if you play your cards right.

Do you have any unique talents or abilities that you feel we should be aware of?
( ) Was the best hockey player in the world and the only reason Glen Sather has all those Cup rings that keep him employed to this day, but don't let that affect your decision or anything.
( ) On free agency day, can repeatedly hit my general manager on the nose with a rolled up newspaper while yelling "NO!" every time the phone rings.
( ) Don't want to get into it, but let's just say I'm on a first name basis with like half the local riot squad in two different cities.
( ) When I set my mind to it, can achieve the impossible. For example, have occasionally succeeded in eating just one.

Do you have any concerns about taking this position?
( ) Ryan Clowe and Darroll Powe's names don't rhyme and that's always just really bothered me for some reason.
( ) Would like to put together a long-term strategic plan, so it would be cool if we could eventually get one or two players signed past next season.
( ) Realize that part of the New York sports scene involves dealing with celebrities, but still not sure why the lead singer from this horrible band is always walking around MSG like he owns the place.
( ) Sort of creeped out by how realistic those mounted heads of sportswriters hanging in the old coach's office are

What would you say are the odds that you get this job?
( ) Pretty good.
( ) Just OK.
( ) Definite longshot.
( ) Not sure, let me ask my wife.

Finally, if you are the successful candidate, what would you do on your first day on the job?
( ) Get to work preparing a game plan for next year's playoff series against the Capitals.
( ) Try to cheer up that depressed looking usher by asking him if he knows how much he looks like Brad Richards
( ) Take off pants; sit on photocopier; fax results to Mike Gillis.
( ) Probably Google "How to be a hockey coach" since that is something I have never been in my entire life.

Thank you for your interest in this position. Please note that the successful candidate will be contacted next week. The unsuccessful candidates will be contacted next season, during our first losing streak.

---

Featuring 70 posts including 24 chapters of exclusive new material, The Best of Down Goes Brown is now available.

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Other "thank you" newspaper ads from NHL stars through the years

Rick Nash said his final farewell to the city of Columbus last week. Days after being traded to the New York Rangers, Nash purchased a full-page ad in the Columbus Dispatch, featuring a personal letter thanking Blue Jacket fans for their support.

While the move was widely hailed as classy, it wasn't especially original. After all, star players taking out a full-page ad on their way out of town has become a hockey tradition. There's practically a template at this point, and Nash followed it to the letter: The player's name at the top, the big full-color photograph, the personal note at the bottom.

Where have we seen that before? From plenty of other star players who were moving on, as it turns out. Let's take a look through some newspaper archives around the league.

Here's a good example of a classy goodbye by a departing free agent.

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NHL owners' other leaked CBA demands

During a break in negotiations, Bettman takes a
moment to consider plans for his sun-blocking device.

Any sense of optimism over the NHL's upcoming CBA negotiation disappeared last week when details of the owners' initial offer to the players leaked to the public. Despite some early hope that the two sides would learn from past mistakes and find common ground quickly, it looks like fans are in for another contentious battle.

The owners' initial offer - which includes slashing the player's share of league revenues, a five-year limit on contracts, the elimination of arbitration and significant changes to free agency - has no chance of being accepted. But while some have chalked the proposal up as just a basic negotiating tactic, others see it as a signal that the league is intent on undergoing yet another long work stoppage.

And that's just based on the high-level details that leaked out - it turns out that the actual proposal included plenty more for players to chew on. My spies were able to get their hands on a copy of the offer, which sheds light on some of the additional demands that NHL owners are insisting on seeing in the next CBA.

• The league and its players must work together to come up with new revenue streams that could add millions of dollars to the league's bottom line, such as having Cam Janssen bring a swear jar to all his radio interviews.
  
  
• Columbus would really like us to consider another round of expansion, since they're running out of teams to laugh hysterically into the phone when Scott Howson calls with his latest Rick Nash proposal.
  
  
• Any time the NHLPA starts talking about how the union will absolutely refuse to bend on certain key principles, the owners reserve the right to order in for pizza and then drum their fingers nonchalantly when Bob Goodenow shows up to deliver it.
  
  
• We're going to need to roll back the salary of every active NHL player, with the exception of Brad Richards, since according to this magazine we picked up the poor guy can't even afford to buy clothes these days.
  

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A New Jersey Devil's guide to coming back from a 3-0 series deficit

So the Devils aren't quite done after all.

With the entire hockey world expecting to see the Stanley Cup presented to the Kings once they completed the sweep on Wednesday night, the Devils played spoilers with a 3-1 win. That sent the series back to Newark for tonight's fifth game, and may have created just enough momentum to get people thinking about a comeback.

Can the Devils pull it off? History says probably not. After all, only three teams in NHL history have come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. But New Jersey has taken the first step, and they can extend the season again with another win tonight.

More hockey is always a good thing, so I want to help. Since my market research shows that the entire New Jersey Devils organization is made up of faithful DGB readers, I've put together a list of tips for them on coming all the way back from a 3-0 series deficit.

DO: Explain to younger teammates that while coming back from 3-0 is difficult, it has been done in the past by teams like the 1942 Maple Leafs, 1975 Islanders and 2010 Flyers.
DO NOT: Be surprised when those younger teammates just stare at you in stunned silence, since it will be the first time they've ever heard of the Leafs or Islanders winning in the playoffs.

DO: Closely study film from Game Four to try to determine why you were able to score twice in 23 shots against Jonathan Quick after struggling so much offensively in the first three games.
DO NOT: Become discouraged when you realize it's because he played the entire game with his eyes closed "to make it more challenging".

DO: Attempt to draw inspiration from any sports fans you meet by asking them to tell you all about any recent examples of their favorite team being down 3-0 in a series.
DO NOT: Ask anyone wearing a Red Sox cap, unless you have nine hours to kill and/or a cyanide pill handy.

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Round one Western Conference playoff preview

Eventually, a disappointed Luongo realized
the other players were too busy with the
game to join his rendition of "YMCA".

The playoffs begin tonight, which means it's time to wrap up our mandatory first round predictions. We covered the Eastern Conference yesterday, so today we'll take a look at the Western Conference matchups.

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

The matchup: The series will feature two forwards who are completely inseparable and spend virtually every waking moment of their lives together, and in addition to Mike Richards and Jeff Carter the Canucks probably have some good players too.
The view from Vancouver: The Canucks must find an answer for the Kings' best defensive player, goaltender Jonathan Quick, and their best offensive player, a frustrated Jonathan Quick taking slapshots from the point while yelling "Seriously, the rest of you don't even want to maybe give this a try?"
The view from Los Angeles: Kings players can't help but wonder if team meetings would be more effective if coach Darryl Sutter didn't continually interrupt to ask if anyone knows who the Flames are playing in the first round, then laugh hysterically for twenty minutes.
Player to watch: Cory Schneider, to see if he's taking his ball cap off, assuming you're Roberto Luongo and just gave up a goal.
Prediction: The Canucks win, celebrate their victory together as a team, then pause and ask each other whether anyone else just heard the faint sound of "Chelsea Dagger" coming from round two.

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2011: An NHL year in review

Is it over yet?

This is the time of year when anyone who writes about hockey feels obligated to come up with a year in review piece. But 2011 seems different. After all, is it even worth looking back at a year that was largely marked by tragedy, concussions, franchise instability, and over-the-top violence?

Well, my mother used to tell me that "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all". But my editors currently tell me that "If you don't say anything at all, we don't have to pay you". So apparently we'll be doing a 2011 year in review after all.

Here's a look back at some of the NHL's most memorable moments of the past 12 months.

January 1 - In a request that he will later wish he had worded slightly differently, Gary Bettman prays to the hockey gods that the millions of fans tuning into that night's Winter Classic will get to see Sidney Crosby have one of his best games of the entire year.

January 28 - Phil Kessel is picked last in the all-star draft while Alexander Ovechkin makes a show of taking his photo. Ovechkin later apologizes and promises that he won't take a photo when Kessel is drafted for the 2012 all-star game, since he'll probably just hit pause on his DVR while watching from his living room.

February 28 - In arguably the biggest deal of trade deadline day the Washington Capitals send David Steckel and a draft pick to the Devils in exchange for Jason Arnott, a player so old that he can actually remember a time when trade deadline day was interesting.

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Things overheard at the Hockey Hall of Fame induction ceremony

By the third time he ordered them to punch
an invisible midget, the inductees had begun
to realize the photographer may be crazy.

Last night saw four former NHL stars receive the highest honour the sport has to offer when they were inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame. Doug Gilmour, Eddie Belfour, Joe Nieuwendyk and Mark Howe will each now see their names included among the legends that line the wall in the Great Hall.

The induction ceremony capped off several days of celebration, which included the annual Hall of Fame Game, a fan forum, and a legends game. It all makes up one of the most popular weekends on the NHL's calendar, with many of the biggest names in the sport gathered to take part in the festivities.

Needless to say, my sources were there with tape recorders rolling. And they put together a list of the most interesting comments overheard during the course of the evening.

• Wow, Doug Gilmour sure is getting emotional during his acceptance speech. Wait, what do you mean you can't see him? He's standing right in front of you, Mr. Fraser.
  
  
• That's a great question, Mr. Belfour, I'm not sure why your plaque has that asterisk next to the mention of your Stanley Cup win. I'll ask the engraver, he's the guy over there in the Sabres jersey.
  
  
• Mr. Nieuwendyk, how does it feel to be the only player in NHL history to have ever been traded for Jarome Iginla? You know, until next March.
  
  
• BOOOOOOO! Oh, sorry Mr. Bettman, I saw you brush up against the Stanley Cup display and I guess it was just force of habit.
  
  
• Come quick! Mark Howe is telling some great stories about how in the old days the Flyers would respond to a tough defence by working harder instead of just refusing to play any more like spoiled toddlers.
  

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Success stories from the NHL's opening month

"And then Ryan Smyth told me he used to have a
phone that was connected to the wall! What a joker!"

The NHL season is now a month old, and for many hockey fans that can mean only one thing: it's time to start looking for something to complain about.

After all, these days it seems like some fans love nothing more than pointing out someone else's flaws. And sure, if you look closely enough at any team or player you can always find at least one or two things that may be slightly less than perfect.

But as long-time readers know, I've never been the sort of writer who chooses to focus on the negative. So instead, let's take a look around the league and highlight some of the good news that's been on display in the early going. Consider this a negativity-free zone.

Here are some of the most inspiring success stories from the season's first month.

Joe Thornton - Showed a lot of class by apologizing to the Rangers for calling them the softest team the Sharks had played against, after explaining that he hadn't realized that intrasquad scrimmages counted too.

Ken Hitchcock - The Blues' new head coach will no doubt be wildly popular in St. Louis, a town where fans have proven to be willing to embrace a team's boss even if he's incapable of correctly operating a simple telephone.

Ville Leino - His $27 million contract with the Sabres is completely guaranteed no matter how he plays, his agent incredulously reminds him several times a day.

Dion Phaneuf - Has managed to put together an impressive season despite his recent habit of coming back to the bench after every shift, turning on his smartphone, checking for updates about the Calgary Flames, then laughing hysterically while high-fiving all his teammates.

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Getting to know the NHL's new coaches

"Coach, if you took every puck Craig Anderson
will stop this season and stacked them on top
of each other, how high would that pile be?"

The 2011-12 season has seen six teams introduce new coaches. And instead of going back to the various familiar faces who were available, this year teams chose to go with relative newcomers. Not one of the new coaches has ever won a playoff game, and five have never been a head coach in the NHL at all.

All of which is to say that hockey fans could be forgiven if they aren't familiar with the league's newest bench bosses. So here's a handy guide to the half dozen men who are making their debut behind a bench this year.

Glen Gulutzan, Dallas Stars

Previous experience: Won the John Brophy Award for his work as coach of the Las Vegas Wranglers in 2006, so presumably rocks a mean fedora.
Early-season adjustment: Was recently able to get the media to finally start questioning him about strategy and roster decisions, instead of spending every press conference repeatedly asking "No, but seriously, who are you?"
Possible cause for concern: Reports of a possible sale of the team to a businessman from Vancouver could lead to the team's budget being slashed, or at least pretending to be slashed in an attempt to draw a penalty.

Kevin Dineen, Florida Panthers

Previous experience: His 20-year NHL playing career included a stint as Flyers captain that was interrupted when he was traded, which is really odd because that never happens says Mike Richards sarcastically.
Early-season adjustment: Has repeatedly had to politely ask Brian Campbell to stop coming back to the bench and saying "Hey, I just made more money on that shift than guys like you did during the entire 1980s!"
Possible cause for concern: Told reporters during training camp that he was looking forward to coaching emerging star David Booth, or the package of excellent young players the team would inevitably get in return if they ever traded him.

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