Is Kyle Connor McDavid the best same-name combo player in NHL history?

We’re one day away from the biggest international showdown in 15 years, with Team USA hosting Team Canada in a grudge match that will feature all sorts of bad blood both on and off the ice.

And I’m going to be honest: My tummy hurts.

I know you're probably here looking for some sort of preview, or maybe historical context. I can’t do it. Not today. Right now, I could use a distraction.

So instead, we’re going to get dumb today. Call it a palette-cleanser. This is an idea I’ve had on my “too dumb to actually do” list – yes, of course that list exists, don’t act like you’re remotely surprised – for a while now, but it popped into my head again this week while watching Team USA.

That team has a pair of Connors… sort of. They’ve got Kyle Connor on the first line, and Connor Hellebuyck is goal. That had me wondering if Kyle Connor Hellebuyck would be the best combined name in international hockey history. And if we reach over to Team Canada, would Kyle Connor McDavid be the best offensive combo?

I have no idea, so I’m going to waste some of your valuable time figuring it out.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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The Athletic Hockey Show: Let's get Wild

On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- The Wild buy out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter and we're confused
- How many 10-year+ contracts actually worked?
- Remember that bonkers Chris Chelios threat to Gary Bettman
- Thoughts on the Senators' interesting new front office
- More on the Duncan Keith trade
- Jesse Granger on next year's Cup odds
- Cinderella teams, the days of coach/GMs, remembering the 1994 Mike Keenaan fiasco and more...

The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)

Puck Soup: Dunk on Keith

On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Reactions to the Duncan Keith trade and Pierre McGuire news
- Thoughts on the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup a month ago or whenever that was
- Nikita Kucherov had two beers and was mean to Habs fans
- Also the Stanley Cup is broken now
- The curious case of Marc Bergevin's contract status
- The NHL has decided cross-checking should be against the rules
- OUFL baseball sluggers, which just turns into us remembering how awesome a lot of guys were

>> Stream it now:

>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.

Puck Soup: Conne Smythe or con job?

On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Thoughts on the Stanley Cup final, and how Tampa's mayor may have ruined everything
- The Matiss Kivlenieks tragedy
- Jonathan Toews says he's on the way back
- Duncan Keith to Edmonton?
- Ron MacLean whiffs on his Bettman interview
- We pass judgment on each of the cap era's Conn Smythe calls
- A new game show on the NHL's longest contracts, and more...

>> Stream it now:

>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.

Grab Bag: Hawks since, we're old, and what were the GMs actually doing at those meetings?

In the Friday Grab Bag:
- What were the GMs doing all week? My spies found out
- I'm feeling old so now I'm going to make you feel old too
- An obscure player who played the most games in net without a loss
- The week's three comedy stars
- And a YouTube look back at the Blackhawks kind of maybe trying to sing

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Which NHL stars will end their careers as members of the one-franchise club?

You hear the term “franchise player” thrown around a lot these days, typically as a slightly fancier way of saying a player is very good. But actually playing out your entire career with one NHL franchise isn’t easy. Mario Lemieux managed to do it, but Wayne Gretzky and Gordie Howe didn’t. Nicklas Lidstrom did, but not Bobby Orr or Ray Bourque. Rocket Richard, Joe Sakic and Steve Yzerman made it, but not Mark Messier, Phil Esposito or Marcel Dionne.

And so far, it’s been an especially rough summer for modern-day players looking to join the club. Among the active leaders in games played with one team, as many as four players could have new homes in October. Patrick Marleau has already said goodbye to San Jose after 20 years. Shane Doan has been told that his services won’t be required in Arizona after 22 years with the organization, while Chris Neil got the same message from the Senators after 16. And as of right now, Andrei Markov’s 17-year tenure with the Canadiens appears to be in serious jeopardy.

Some of those players might still get to claim one-franchise status — Markov could re-sign in Montreal, and Doan and Neil could retire rather than sign elsewhere. But this summer has made it clear that playing out a decade or more with one organization doesn’t guarantee anything, and you never know when a player or team will decide that it’s time to sever a long-term relationship.

So today, let’s take a look at the 10 players with the most games played for a single team that they’re still on the roster of, and try to figure out which ones have the best odds of ending their career as a member of the one-franchise club.

Henrik and Daniel Sedin, Canucks

The tenure: 1,248 games for Henrik and 1,225 for Daniel, dating back to 2000

Why they’ll make it: Both sides in this one have been clear: The Sedins will finish their career in Vancouver. The twins have gone on the record to say they don’t want to leave. And the Canucks seem happy to hold onto them, resisting calls to think about moving their two veteran stars to help kickstart a rebuild.

On top of that, there’s another issue in play here: It’s just not easy to take on a pair of high salaries in the same deal. Assuming the twins will want to stay together wherever they play, there just aren’t many teams out there that could add that sort of cap hit. Sticking it out in Vancouver and then retiring as Canucks isn’t just the sentimental choice, it’s the practical one.

Why they won’t: The brothers have just one year left on their contracts, and the Canucks are expected to be a bad team this year and probably a few after that. Trading them today would be all but impossible, but getting a retained-salary deal done at the deadline might be realistic. And even assuming they finish the season as Canucks, the Sedins could head into unrestricted free agency next summer. Maybe they’d want to take a swing at a Stanley Cup somewhere before calling it quits.

Chance of making the one-franchise club: 75%. This will seem low to Canucks fans, many of whom seem to assume that the Sedins playing out their career in Vancouver is a sure thing. Maybe it is. But if Doan and the Coyotes taught us anything, it’s that loyalty has its limits, especially when a rebuilding team wants to go young. Is it really that hard to imagine the twins at least thinking about a discount deal with a contender next summer?

Henrik Zetterberg, Red Wings

The tenure: 1,000 games on the nose, dating back to 2002

Why they’ll make it: A lot of what we just wrote about the Sedins would apply here, too. It’s a veteran player on a rebuilding team that probably won’t have a shot at a Stanley Cup anytime soon.

But there are two key differences. First, Zetterberg already has a Cup ring. And second (and more importantly), he’s signed for four more years at a cap hit north of $6 million. Free agency isn’t on the radar, and even if the Red Wings wanted to trade him, they’d have trouble finding anyone willing to take on that deal.

On top of that, this is the Red Wings; no team holds onto its stars like Detroit. They made sure to do it for everyone from Yzerman to Lidstrom to Alex Delvecchio to Pavel Datsyuk. Well, kind of.

Why they won’t: Datsyuk never played anywhere else, but the Red Wings did trade his rights. That was a unique situation, of course, but it shows that Ken Holland is willing to get creative when it comes to dumping bad contracts. Zetterberg’s deal isn’t awful yet, but it’s headed there fast, and dumping it on a floor team down the line could be the sort of painful decision the rebuilding Wings have no choice but to make.

Chance of making the one-franchise club: 90%. In today’s NHL, I’m not sure you ever go higher than 90 until the player is actually making their way to the podium to announce their retirement. But of everyone on our list, Zetterberg is the most likely to retire with his team.

Dustin Brown, Kings

The tenure: 964 games dating back to 2003

Why they’ll make it: He’s been a warrior for the franchise, lifting two Stanley Cups as their captain. But let’s face it, the real reason Brown will retire as a King is his contract. With five years left at a nearly $6-million cap hit, and given Brown’s recent performance, it’s one of the worst contracts in the league. Even if the Kings wanted to trade him, no other team is going anywhere near that deal.

Why they won’t: The contract may be untradeable, but that doesn’t mean the Kings are stuck with it. Brown’s deal isn’t weighted down with bonuses, making it relatively straightforward to buy out. New management will no doubt give him a chance to find his game again before going that route, but this team already stripped him of his captaincy. The writing is on the wall here.

Chance of making the one-franchise club: 30%. Brown is a buyout waiting to happen.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

The 2017 playoff all-disappointment team

We’re well into the conference finals, which is great for fans of the four teams left standing. The Senators, Penguins, Predators and Ducks are filled with positive — and at times even inspiring — stories of perseverance and success.

It’s annoying. All of this saying-nice-things is getting exhausting.

So today, let’s get back to what hockey fans do best: Complaining about guys who didn’t meet our expectations. Yes, it’s time to name our annual playoff-bust team, in which we find a roster’s worth of players who’ve had a disappointing last few weeks.

We’ll fill out a complete lineup card, including a third-string goalie. For an extra challenge, we’ll do it all-star style, meaning we want at least one player from every team (including the four active ones). And like all great teams, we’ll build from the net out…

GOALTENDERS

Sergei Bobrovsky: We'll ease into things with one of the most straightforward picks on the roster. Bobrovsky will probably win his second Vezina this year, and deservedly so. But he never got going during the playoffs, giving up three or more goals in all five games and finishing as one of only two post-season starters with a sub-.900 save percentage.

Would a better performance have powered the Blue Jackets past the Penguins for their first-ever playoff series win? Maybe not, but without their star goalie in top form, Columbus never had a chance.

Brian Elliott: Elliott is the other starter to fall under the .900 mark, and he was actually a few points back of Bobrovsky. He made four starts, the Flames lost all four, and his 3.88 GAA tied with Bobrovsky for the post-season's worst. But unlike Bobrovsky, he almost certainly won't get a chance to redeem himself next year, at least not with the Flames.

Braden Holtby: Emergency backup duties on our all-disappointment roster is a little trickier call; you could make a case for Corey Crawford, or maybe even John Gibson. But we'll go with Holtby, who falls victim to sky-high expectations that he and his Capitals teammates carried into the playoffs. His shaky numbers were as much about bad bounces as any obvious flaw in his game, but given the stakes in Washington, Holtby's performance was a letdown. Spoiler alert: He won't be the only Capital on this team.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

The five toughest Top 100 calls among active players

The NHL will unveil its heavily hyped Top 100 list of the league's greatest players this weekend as part of the all-star festivities in Los Angeles. The list won't be ranked, but it's still sure to cause some controversy as fans pour over who makes the cut and who gets snubbed.

In the leadup to the announcement, there's been some confusion over how many active players have been included. Initial reports suggested there were only six, which seemed far too low. Later, it was suggested that there may be six of this year's all-stars on the list, in addition to several other active players who weren't taking part in the weekend's events. That seemed to make more sense, although the league hasn't confirmed anything.

Sorting out which active players to include is harder than it might seem, and I found that out firsthand. After criticizing the league for chickening out on doing a ranked list, I was approached about working on one of my own. The end result was an e-book, co-authored with Greg Wyshynski and Dave Lozo, that was released this week.

Here's what I learned: This stuff is harder than it looks.

And having been through the process of pulling together a Top 100, I can tell you that figuring out where to slot in active players may be the toughest calls of all. Remember, you're comparing guys who are still in mid-career to other players' finished products.

Sometimes, it's easy. Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin were no-brainers for the Top 25, and veterans like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla and Joe Thornton made the list without much argument. But other guys turned out to be more contentious debates.

Here are the five toughest calls among active players that we ran into, and what we ended up doing with them.

The Sedins

When we built our list, we were looking at two key questions: Was the player ever considered one of the best in the league, and were they able to consistently produce over the course of a long career? The Sedins check both boxes.

Both have won an Art Ross. Both were postseason all-stars on multiple occasions. Henrik won a Hart Trophy in 2010, and you could make a strong case that Daniel should have in 2011 (he finished second to Corey Perry in a close vote). And both have been consistent producers for over a decade.

So sure, they're great players. But top 100? Henrik just hit the 1,000-point milestone and Daniel will get there soon, but lots of guys have reached that mark. Competition for a spot on the list was tight, as you'd expect given we're dealing with 100 years of history. For example, we were surprised that we couldn't find room for names like Mike Modano or Doug Gilmour, both of whom will probably top the Sedins by over 300 points when all is said and done.

True, the twins played their entire careers in a lower-scoring era than many of the guys ahead of them on the all-time scoring list. But even factoring that in, they're far from a slam dunk.

Our call: They both made the list. But just barely.

Carey Price

The Sedins were a tough call, but at least they're closing in on the end of their careers. Players like Price are even trickier, because we don't have any idea where they'll wind up. The Canadiens' goalie hasn't even turned 30 yet, so there's a lot of runway left here.

That said, his resume is already impressive. He won the Hart Trophy, which few goaltenders have managed to do. Of course, so did Jose Theodore, and he's not on anybody's Top 100 list.

Price is no Theodore – settle down, Habs fans – and there are goaltenders with shorter careers than his who made our list easily. But those guys won multiple Vezinas. Price hasn't… yet.

>> Read the full post at The Hockey News

---

New book:
THE 100 GREATEST PLAYERS IN NHL HISTORY (AND OTHER STUFF): AN ARBITRARY COLLECTION OF ARBITRARY LISTS

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Weekend report: When injuries change everything

Faceoff: Insult to Injury

With one week left in the regular season and the playoffs drawing near, hockey fans have turned their attention to the usual questions: Who's in? Who's out? Who's playing who? Who's hot, who's cold, and who's got the clearest path to the final?

This year, another question is starting to loom even larger: Who's healthy?

The quick answer, as always, is "nobody" because this is the NHL and everyone is banged up in one way or another by this point. But this year, there are some very significant names showing up on injury reports around the league in the season's final days, and many of them are big enough to change the perception of some team's playoff chances.

The latest bombshell arrived late Saturday evening, with news breaking that Lightning captain Steven Stamkos would need to undergo surgery for a blood clot in his arm. He'll miss at least a month, and could be sidelined until after the final. While the good news is that the clots apparently won't impact his long-term health outlook, the timing is devastating to a Lightning team that had been considered a favourite to come out of the Atlantic, if not the Eastern Conference. The team had already lost key defenceman Anton Stralman to a broken leg that's left him hoping for a return "at some point." Losing Stamkos too may be enough to shift Tampa Bay from Conference favourite to first-round underdog. (And now, even potential AHL saviour Jonathan Drouin is apparently hurt, too.)

The Stamkos story followed on the heels of Saturday morning's news from Pittsburgh that Marc-Andre Fleury has been shut down with his second concussion of the season. That's a major blow to a team that had emerged as a legitimate Cup threat under new coach Mike Sullivan. We don't yet know how long Fleury will be out, but an extended absence would put all the playoff pressure on 21-year-old rookie Matt Murray. (For what it's worth, Murray has looked very good in his nine career games, including a 24-save shutout against the Islanders after the Fleury news broke on Saturday.)

Fleury isn't the only playoff-bound goaltender on the sidelines with a head injury. The Ducks announced Friday that sometimes-starter Frederik Andersen is out indefinitely with a concussion. Anaheim will also be without forward David Perron, who'll miss four to six weeks with a separated shoulder.

Just when things were going right for the Penguins...–Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

And then there's the ongoing mystery of Blackhawks starter Corey Crawford. He hasn't played since March 14 due to what the team is calling an upper-body injury, and there's been plenty of speculation over exactly what that might mean. The team still says it still hopes to have Crawford back in time for the playoffs, but with a tough first-round matchup looming, any sort of absence—or even rust—could spell disaster. Meanwhile, the Hawks have also lost Andrew Shaw to injury and Duncan Keith to a suspension, and could now be without Marian Hossa, who left Sunday's game after a collision and did not return.

The list continues. Tyler Seguin of the Stars. Travis Hamonic and Jaroslav Halak of the Islanders. Marc-Edouard Vlasic of the Sharks. Jay Bouwmeester of the Blues. Marian Gaborik of the Kings. All big names, all sidelined as the season winds down, all hoping to return for the playoffs but none a sure thing.

Any predictions of injury-related doom and gloom at this time of year need to be taken with a grain of salt—the star player who misses time late but manages to miraculously recover just in time for the playoffs is a story we've seen before. But the flood of big names on the injury report could be enough to tilt the balance of power in at least a series or two. And we still have a week to add to the list...

Race to the Cup

The five teams with the best shot at winning the Stanley Cup.

5. Chicago Blackhawks (46-26-7, +25 true goals differential)—I should have slipped the Penguins in here and dropped Chicago off the list. Then I watched the shorthanded Hawks speedbag what should have been a desperate Bruins team for 35 minutes Sunday and I went "Oh yeah, these guys." Then I watched the last 25 minutes and went "Wait, I'm confused." I remain confused.

4. Los Angeles Kings (46-27-5, +30)—They hold their spot in our top five, but the Ducks have passed them again for top spot in the Pacific.

>> Read the full post at Vice Sports

Why do Norris voters keep snubbing Drew Doughty?

We’re closing in on awards voting season, which means we’re already well into awards arguing season. And this year, the biggest argument so far has centered on the Norris Trophy for the league’s best defenceman. Despite Erik Karlsson‘s gaudy offensive totals, there’s a strong sense that this could finally be the year that Drew Doughty earns his first nod.

We can save the Doughty vs. Karlsson debate for another day. But there’s an interesting undercurrent to this year’s Norris talk, and it goes something like this: Doughty is just due. The guy has been one of the best defencemen in the league for the better part of a decade, and it’s somewhat shocking that he hasn’t won a Norris or two already. If the race is close, the thinking goes, he might deserve the trophy as a sort of make-good on all those previous snubs.

Putting aside the idea that it seems odd to be giving out lifetime achievement awards to a guy who’s only 26 years old, the argument makes a certain type of sense. But only if you buy the central premise – that Doughty has been narrowly missing out on the Norris for years. Fair is fair, and maybe you really do nudge a guy up your list if he’s continually posted Norris-worthy seasons, only to fall just short when the ballots are counted.

But has he? Let’s take a look back through all seven previous seasons of Doughty’s career and find out.

(All award voting data in this post comes from hockey-reference.com.)

2008-09

Norris winner: Zdeno Chara, who narrowly edged out Mike Green’s 31-goal season in a minor upset to earn his only Norris.

Doughty’s finish: No votes.

The case for Doughty: There wasn’t one, which is what you’d expect – Doughty was a teenaged rookie, so the fact that he was even able to handle a regular shift at the NHL level was impressive enough. He finished fifth in the Calder voting, well back of winner Steve Mason, and was named to the all-rookie first team.

Bottom line: No Norris case here. But Doughty would get to that level quickly.

2009-10

Norris winner: Duncan Keith, winning his first of two so far. Green finished second again.

Doughty’s finish: Doughty finished third in the voting, a stunning performance for a guy who was still 19 years old on opening night. He didn’t come all that close to winning – he had 15 first place votes to Keith’s 76 – but it was clear the Kings had something special.

The case for Doughty: It’s tough to argue with the Keith pick in what would stand as his breakout season. He posted 69 points while averaging 26:36 ice time and posting excellent possession numbers, topping Doughty in each of those categories. The gap in voting reflects that, although you have to figure that at least a few voters also figured that Doughty’s performance at such a young age meant that future Norris honours were inevitable.

Bottom line: Nobody would argue that Doughty had already peaked, although it’s interesting to note that he’s yet to come close to matching this season’s 59 points. That’s largely due to the Kings’ transition into the league’s top defensive team, one that’s paid off with two Stanley Cups, but could be hurting Doughty’s offensive numbers.

>> Read the full post at Sportsnet

The Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup... again

One of those odd unwritten rules of pro hockey is that your entire life revolves around winning the Stanley Cup, but when you’re one game away from actually doing it, you have to pretend like you haven’t noticed. You have to claim it’s just another game, and maybe even feign some degree of surprise that anyone would treat it any other way.

So Monday, hours away from a chance at capturing their third Stanley Cup in six years, that’s what the Blackhawks did. After their morning skate, player after player swore that the night would be like any other game. They repeated it like a mantra, almost robotically. Just another game. No big deal. It’s only a championship on the line. For their part, the Lightning were just as coy, shrugging off any suggestions that having their very playoff lives on the line made this game any sort of big deal.

The charade lasted all morning, right up until Lightning coach Jon Cooper addressed the media. He was asked whether this was, indeed, just another game.

“No chance,” he replied, incredulous. “The Stanley Cup’s in the building. I can’t believe they would say, ‘Oh, it’s just another game.’”

“We know it’s just not another game,” he continued, gaining steam as he went. “This is much different than Game 1. You got to win or you go home. On the other side, you know what happens if they win.”

“No. I don’t like to sugarcoat anything. This is the reality of the business we’re in.”

He’s right, of course, even if he’s not supposed to say it. This wasn’t just another game. As it turns out, it would be the last game of the series and the season, and the one that saw a new dynasty crowned. And it would be the night the reality Cooper spoke of finally caught up with the Lightning.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

A beginner's guide to game one

Every day of the Stanley Cup finals brings at least one micro-controversy, those little issues that flare up sometime around mid-morning and cause a good day or two of fist-shaking before eventually being forgotten.

At one point yesterday, the issue of the moment was a beginner’s guide to hockey published by one of the local Tampa papers. The reaction was predictable: old-school diehards rolling their eyes at a city that has had a team for 22 years needing a refresher on icing, followed by more forgiving types scolding those diehards to be more welcoming to new fans.

Every sport’s fan base gets its back up over new fans, but it seems to be a specialty in the hockey world. After all, NHL fans have spent so many years being told what’s wrong with their sport that they’re instinctively defensive of their turf. But that approach does more harm than good, because hockey has plenty of room for new fans. There’s lots of space available on the bandwagon, and the more rookie fans who climb aboard, the better.

So in that spirit, let’s do this game story in the style of a beginner’s guide to NHL hockey. Consider it a peace offering to any new fans, in Tampa Bay or beyond, who are trying to figure out the rules of this fun but occasionally confusing game.

Rule no. 1: Hockey is a sport that is played by two teams. Or at least it’s supposed to be. As last night’s first period wore on, it began to seem as if the Blackhawks had missed that particular memo. The Lightning dominated, outpacing the Hawks in shot attempts and often spending extended periods in the Chicago zone.

That sort of thing isn’t news when it comes to the Lightning, a tremendously talented team that can often overwhelm lesser opposition. But it is new for the Blackhawks, who haven’t fallen into that lesser-opponent category in a long time. The Blackhawks are the bullies of the NHL postseason and have been for years, and while nobody can be expected to bring their best game every night, it was still stunning to see them chasing the play for as long as they were.

The early imbalance stoked an already enthusiastic Tampa Bay crowd, one that had just finished being blasted by a series of pregame scoreboard videos that ran for roughly as long as the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Having endured that ordeal, they celebrated by cheering on the Lightning toward what quickly started to feel like an inevitable first goal.

Rule no. 2: In hockey, teams attempt to score a goal by directing the puck into their opponent’s net. This can be done in any number of ways; popular methods include the slap shot, the backhand, or the deflection. Or, if you’re Alex Killorn, all three things at once.

I’d strongly encourage you to click that link and watch Killorn’s first-period goal a few times, because I’m honestly not sure I can do it justice. Anton Stralman takes a shot from the point that’s almost comically unthreatening as it flutters toward the net like a knuckleball, headed well wide. And then, at least theoretically on purpose, Kilorn reaches back and swats the puck out of the air. The NHL’s official box score described it as a “tip-in,” which is technically the correct term for a shot that’s redirected but doesn’t seem quite adequate for a play that more closely resembled someone delivering a midflight 7-iron to a monarch butterfly.

The goal came less than five minutes in, and gave the Lightning a 1-0 lead. In today’s NHL, that tends to be important.

Rule no. 3: The winning team is the one that scores the most goals over the course of the game. In theory, that means that the lead can change hands several times, and comebacks are possible. In reality, not so much, and that’s especially true in games involving these two teams. The Blackhawks came into last night sporting a 9-1 record when scoring first in these playoffs; the Lightning were even better at a perfect 9-0. When they score first, they win, and Killorn’s circus act had just given them that first goal.

Tampa Bay fans spend much of each game chanting “Let’s Go Bolts.” If you happen to suffer from an acute inability to interpret chants at sporting events, that can end up sounding confusingly like “Let’s Go Home,” which would be far better, as if cocky Lightning fans are already chalking up the win and moving on to the next one. As the Lightning followed Killorn’s goal with more and more time in the Chicago zone, you started to wonder if that might be right.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

Stanley Cup preview

The Stanley Cup final gets started tonight in Tampa, as the young Lightning face the seasoned Blackhawks. It’s a fantastic matchup, one featuring plenty of star power and two teams that have at times looked both vulnerable and invincible over the past few weeks.

The Blackhawks have won two Cups since 2010; the Lightning look poised to win a few more down the road. But it’s this year’s that is up for grabs, so let’s see if we can figure out who’s going to win this thing by breaking down all the usual categories — plus a few more.

Forwards

Lightning: Tampa Bay is stacked up front, so much so that franchise player Steven Stamkos has somehow wound up as an afterthought for much of the playoffs. After a slow start to the postseason, Stamkos heated up against the Rangers with goals in four straight games, and linemates Alex Killorn and Valtteri Filppula have come along for the ride. That essentially gives the Lightning two no. 1 lines, since the “Triplets” trio of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita Kucherov shows no signs of slowing down.

If there’s a concern, it’s that the top six is basically doing all the team’s scoring. Filppula has three goals, while the other five each have at least seven; by comparison, nobody else on the team has more than one. That includes guys like Ryan Callahan and Cedric Paquette, who’ve been largely invisible on the offensive side. If you’re a Lightning fan, you could look at that as a good thing — the bottom six are playing other roles, and if they ever did start chipping in, the offense would basically be unstoppable. But with a matchup coming for one of those top lines against Jonathan Toews and friends, there has to be at least a little bit of concern with how top-heavy the Lightning lines are.

Blackhawks: The Blackhawks feature just as much star power as the Lightning, and maybe more. Toews and Patrick Kane get most of the attention, especially when they’re playing together (as they did in the late stages of the Anaheim series). Toews is that rare player who can be dominant at both ends, and Kane’s knack for scoring big goals is becoming legendary. Mix in a young star in Brandon Saad and a pair of old ones in Marian Hossa and ex-Lightning Brad Richards, and you’ve got enough firepower in the top six to push a guy like Patrick Sharp down to the third line.

The edge: There aren’t many teams that can match the Lightning’s top six, but the Hawks are one of them. And Chicago’s better depth and more balanced scoring gives it an edge here.

Defense

Lightning: Victor Hedman is the kind of guy you might not fully appreciate until you see him play live. You watch a Lightning shift and find yourself thinking Who’s that huge guy back there? and you realize it’s Hedman (he’s listed at 6-foot-6 and 230 pounds). Then a few seconds later you think Who’s that fast guy up there? and you realize it’s Hedman again. He’s smart, skilled, and just 24 years old; it’s scary to think about what he could be in another year or two.

The rest of the blue line is solid, which is an upgrade from the unit of recent years that was often a weak link. The other key guy to watch is Anton Stralman, a longtime darling of the analytics crowd who finally seems to be breaking through to some mainstream attention. He’s not big, but he’s a skilled puck-mover and a possession monster who doesn’t make many mistakes.

Blackhawks: Duncan Keith is getting all the attention these days, and rightfully so. He’s been ridiculously good at both ends of the rink, and would probably win the Conn Smythe if voting were held today. He plays huge minutes, and at some point you’d assume that fatigue would have to become a factor, but he’s such a physical freak that maybe he really can play 30 minutes a game (with gusts to 40 in overtime) without wearing down, at least for up to seven more games.

Beyond Keith, the rest of the Hawks’ top four is excellent, with Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook, and Johnny Oduya playing big roles. Things then get dodgy, though, because the fifth and sixth slots have been a mess. The Hawks have been using some combination of David Rundblad, Kimmo Timonen, and Kyle Cumiskey and don’t seem to trust any of them, limiting their minutes and sheltering them as much as possible. That’s tough to do, especially on the road, and it tends to catch up with teams. It hasn’t really yet for the Hawks, but it would make life a lot easier if at least one of those guys could up his game enough to take some of the heat off the big four.

The edge: We’ll give the edge here to the Blackhawks, at least for as long as Keith can keep up the Superman routine, but Hedman and Stralman mean it’s not as big a gap as you might think.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

Seven thoughts on a pair of game sevens

For the first time since 2000, hockey fans have a pair of Game 7s to look forward to in the conference finals. The Rangers will host the Lightning on Friday, with the Ducks welcoming the Blackhawks on Saturday, and by the time it’s all over we’ll have our Stanley Cup final matchup.

Game 7s tend to be just about impossible to figure out ahead of time, but that’s no reason not to at least try. So let’s take a look at seven factors that could help decide a Game 7 … or two.

1. Goaltending

It’s the goaltending. It’s always the goaltending. In fact, this seems like such an obvious category that I spent way too much time trying to figure out a way to get around including it at all. But I can’t, because it will be the biggest factor in both games, so we might as well start with it. Here’s the short version: The team with the better goaltender will probably win.

The slightly longer version is that both series feature battles between goalies who’ve taken turns looking both unbeatable and awful, often in the same game. That’s probably caused an ulcer or two on the coaching staffs, but it’s made for some fascinating hockey, where no shot is harmless and no lead is safe.

Let’s break down the numbers. As you’d expect, Henrik Lundqvist has been the best of the four remaining goalies, putting up a .928 save percentage. He’s also been the best in the third round at 5v5, where he’s at .934, although his poor .720 while shorthanded has dragged his overall numbers down. That gives him an edge over Ben Bishop, who’s at .917 overall and just .898 at 5v5. Both Bishop and Lundqvist have had awful games in what’s been a surprisingly high-scoring series, so nobody’s looking unbeatable, but Lundqvist has clearly been better.

Out west, Frederik Andersen and Corey Crawford have very similar numbers over the course of the playoffs. In this series, Andersen has been better 5v5 while Crawford’s numbers are slightly better overall, although we’re dealing with a six-game sample size, so we won’t read too much into small gaps. The eye test says both have looked shaky in recent games, but Andersen in particular has been fighting the puck over the past two games, including this stinker that almost certainly cost the Ducks Game 4.

2. The big stars

We like to think of a Game 7 as the time when the biggest stars shine brightest, and it’s certainly true that it works out that way sometimes. But just as often the stars go quiet, some random scrub plays the hero, and we all agree to never speak of it again.

Given all the star power spread out between these four teams, it seems likely that at least one big name will break through. That would bode well for Chicago, since its top guns are already hot. Jonathan Toews had those two late goals in Game 5, and Patrick Kane has scored in three of the past four. Meanwhile, Duncan Keith may be playing better than anyone else in the playoffs right now, which works out well since at this point he rarely leaves the ice.

By comparison, the Ducks’ big two of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry has had mixed results, combining for just two goals in the series. Getzlaf has been held scoreless but has chipped in seven assists, so he’s creating offense even if he’s started blaming himself for losses. Perry has been quieter, with two goals and no assists after racking up 15 points through the first nine games of the postseason.

In the East, the Lightning continue to get big production from the Triplets line of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos has now heated up (bringing Alex Killorn along with him). They’ve been more consistent than the Rangers’ top stars, although both Rick Nash and Derick Brassard have posted huge games late in the series. Meanwhile, Martin St. Louis has remained mostly invisible, and now has just one opportunity left to haunt his former team.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

What can the rest of the league learn from the NHL's big four?

Midway through the second round of the playoffs, the NHL has a shot at an interesting conference final scenario. The Kings, Blackhawks, and Penguins are all leading their series, and the Bruins are still very much alive despite trailing the Canadiens, 2-1. If Boston can come back and the other three teams hold on, we’d be left with a repeat of last year’s final four.

That would be an especially rare result, not just in the NHL but across North American pro sports. The NHL has only had one repeat final four since the Original Six era (it happened in 1977). And according to the Elias Sports Bureau, it’s only happened once in MLB (1978) and once in the NBA (1952); it’s never happened in the Super Bowl–era NFL.

So would a final four repeat just be a fluke? Or is it possible these teams know something the rest of the league doesn’t? That Boston, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and L.A. also happen to be the league’s four most recent Cup winners might make you lean toward the second option.

I figured I’d take a deeper look at these four teams, and see what sort of lessons they could offer us about building a successful NHL contender. That turned out to be easier said than done, because while they have plenty in common, finding any one factor that applied to all four gets tricky. Have you ever tried to get four kids to pose for a photo, only to find that one is constantly wandering off? That’s what this felt like.

So instead, here are eight lessons we can learn from most of the NHL’s big four, along with the one team from the group that ruins it.

Lesson 1: Build the blue line around a stud defenseman

Bill Smith/NHLI via Getty Images

They say you build a championship team from the net out. We’ll get to the goaltending part of that equation in a minute, but whoever you’ve got in the crease will need a solid blue line in front of him. And the easiest way to build one is to find one stud to handle the heavy lifting.

Chicago’s Duncan Keith is the odds-on favorite to win the Norris this year, thanks to a season that saw him rack up 61 points while logging big ice time. He’s already won the award once, in 2010. Not bad for a guy who slipped to the 54th pick in the 2002 draft, just behind such noted stalwarts as Alexei Kaigorodov and Barry Tallackson.

If Keith doesn’t win, this year’s award will probably go to Boston’s Zdeno Chara, another previous winner who’s a finalist for the sixth time. In addition to being absolutely terrifying, Chara is probably the most successful free-agent signing of the cap era. It seems strange now, but there were doubts about Chara’s overall game when the Bruins pried him out of Ottawa with a $37.5 million offer in 2006. Eight years later, not so much.

The Kings’ Drew Doughty didn’t earn a spot in this year’s top three Norris vote-getters, though there’s a good chance he finishes fourth. He’s the youngest of the trio at 24, which means we probably haven’t seen his best yet. That’s a scary thought for a guy who was already a Norris finalist in 2010 at the age of 20.

Having one of the league’s best defensemen on your roster doesn’t guarantee you a deep playoff run — hello, Shea Weber — but it sure helps.

The exception: Is Kris Letang a stud? He’s certainly paid like one, and he was a Norris finalist just last season. But despite his inspiring comeback this year, he’s not really viewed as being in that Chara/Keith/Doughty ballpark.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

Western Conference playoff preview

Another NHL regular season is in the books. The standings are set, 14 teams have been sent packing, and the matchups have been finalized. And that means it's playoff preview time.

We'll cover the Eastern Conference tomorrow. Today, let's start off with a look at the Western Conference matchups.

#8 Minnesota Wild vs. #1 Chicago Blackhawks

Damn you, google image search for "most recent
meaningful Minnesota/Chicago hockey game"

The view from Minnesota: The team spent almost $200 million in free agency so Wild fans could watch a championship caliber team, and now they can for four games until the Blackhawks move on to round two.

The view from Chicago: Know that playoff success can come down to taking advantage of just a few short seconds on one single shift, which is good since that's probably all the time that Ryan Suter will be spending on the bench each game.

Player to watch: Duncan Keith, assuming he's soaping himself up in the shower and you are an impudent lady reporter, Don Cherry assumes.

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Behind the scenes at the Raffi Torres suspension hearing

The first round of the NHL playoffs are drawing to a close. But despite several stunning upsets and breathtaking individual performances, it seems like all anyone in the hockey world wants to talk about is Raffi Torres.

Torres, of course, received a 25-game suspension from chief disciplinarian Brendan Shanahan for his devastating open-ice check on Chicago Blackhawks' star Marian Hossa. That sentence ranks among the most severe ever announced by the NHL, and was significantly higher than what most observers had been predicting.

While most NHL suspensions are handed down following a brief conference call between the league and the player involved, Torres's fate was decided at a lengthy in-person hearing due to the severity of the incident and the expected punishment. These sort of hearings are rare, and it goes without saying that what happens during one is highly confidential.

At least, it's supposed to be. But thanks to some well-placed moles at NHL headquarters, I was able to obtain a detailed transcript of the day's events. Here's a timeline of how the hearing unfolded.

Friday, April 20, 10:00 a.m. - The discipline hearing officially begins.

10:01 a.m. - As always, Raffi Torres arrives just a little bit late.

10:23 a.m. - NHLPA head Donald Fehr peppers Brendan Shanahan with questions like "What precedents have been set in similar cases?" and "What is the appeals process?" and "Wait, I've been the head of the NHLPA for almost two years, why didn't anyone tell me?"

10:34 a.m. - Every time representatives of the Chicago Blackhawks begin to complain about how unfair it is to lose a superstar player to injury on a blatantly dirty hit, Daniel Sedin pokes his head in the door and say "Tell me about it".

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A hockey fan's guide to Wrestlemania

This is the happiest anyone has ever
looked while wearing an Oilers jersey.

This Sunday is one of the biggest days on sports calendar, assuming you're willing to be generous with your definition of "sports". That's because it's time for another installment of Wrestlemania, the annual pay-per-view event that features the very best that the fine folks at World Wrestling Entertainment have to offer.

OK, Wrestlemania may not for everyone. But even if you're not a fan of professional wrestling, the overwhelming hype for each year's production can be hard to avoid. So if you're a hockey fan who's wondering what all the fuss is about, here's a quick guide to get you up to speed on the similarities and differences between Wrestlemania and the NHL.

Wrestlemania: If you see somebody wearing a sparkly silver jacket that spells out their name in bright flashing lights, you'll know that Chris Jericho has arrived for his match.
NHL: If you see somebody wearing a sparkly silver jacket that spells out their name in bright flashing lights, you'll know that Don Cherry has decided to wear something conservative that night.

Wrestlemania: If the crowd yells "What?" every time a person tries to speak, it's because they are using a traditional wrestling chant to attempt to interfere with the villain's train of thought.
NHL: If the crowd yells "What?" every time a person tries to speak, it's because the referee is announcing the results of the instant replay review using one of those microphones the league bought at Radio Shack in 1983.

Wrestlemania: The fans know that the fights are planned out well in advance, although everyone involved makes an effort to pretend that they're spontaneous and real.
NHL: John Tortorella and Peter DeBoer have no idea why everyone is staring at them right now.

Wrestlemania: The athletes can often be heard using catchphrases such as "Do you smell what The Rock is cooking" and "I am the Ayatollah of Rock-and-rollah".
NHL: The athletes can often be heard using catchphrases such as "We just have to take it one game at a time" and "Like I said, we just have to take it one game at a time".

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Signs your favorite player may be bankrupt

Keep punching, Milan. They pay $20 per pint.

We heard some surprising news from Ottawa today, with reports that Senators' winger Chris Neil is apparently bankrupt. While the case appears to involve a family business and not Neil directly, he's still on the hook to creditors for $2.4 million.

Many hockey fans are stunned -- how can a guy who recently signed an $8 million contract find himself in financial trouble? Unfortunately, this sort of story turns out not to be an uncommon one in the league. Despite their high salaries, many players find themselves in severe financial difficulty.

Could it happen to your favorite player? Maybe. Just in case, here are some subtle signs that an NHL player may be broke:

• After every victory, he digs up center ice to see if anyone hid a toonie in it.
  
  
• If his team ever wins a championship, his plans for his "day with the Cup" involves sitting on a street corner and shaking it at passers-by.
  
  
• His new dental bridge appears to be made out of paper mache, duct tape, and seven of Duncan Keith's old teeth.
  
  
• Every time he goes out to eat, he tries to convince one of the Canadiens forwards to order him something from the kid's menu.
  
  
• His current salary cap hit is negative fourteen million dollars.
  
  
• He walks around looking like he spent five dollars on his haircut, instead of seven dollars like all his teammates.
  
  
• Every time the zamboni slows down, he jumps out and starts trying to squeegee its windshield.
  
  
• On Twitter, Allan Walsh keeps referring to him as "Client Mr. Better-Pay-His-Agent-If-He-Still-Wants-To-Have-Kneecaps".
  
  
• Several weeks ago, he offered to buy Dustin Byfulgien lunch.
  
  
• He's drowning in so much red ink that Ron Maclean immediately breaks into his slow motion Hasselhoff beach sprint every time he sees him.
  
  
• Instead of a playoff beard or playoff moustache, he's currently rocking a playoff GoldenPalace.com forehead tattoo.
  
  
• When the Edmonton Oilers call with a contract offer, he answers the phone.
  
  
• He's started blogging for Hockeybuzz. (Wait, I'm sorry, that was meant for the list of "Signs your favorite player is morally bankrupt").
  
  
• He's so desperate for money that he's started posing for newspaper covers wearing a skirt.
  
  
• Gary Bettman just legally adopted him.