2009-2010 Season Preview: The Southeast Division

As we count down the final days leading up to the 2009-10 regular season, let's take a look at each of the 30 teams with the official DGB Season Preview. Today, we look at the Southeast Division.

Atlanta Thrashers

The good: The team does, in the strictest technical sense, still exist.
The bad: Their plan to finally make it back to the post-season seems to involve building around former Maple Leafs.
Biggest question mark: How will the team react to the absence of Garnett Exelby, which will force them to play with two defencemen in proper position?
Fearless forecast: A frustrated Ilya Kovalchuk decides to stop passing, hang out at the red line instead of playing defence, and take eight-minute shifts, making him the first player to ever play exactly like you do in NHL 10 "Be A Pro" mode.

Washington Capitals

The good: Alexander Ovechkin seems to finally be coming out of his shell, and may even be willing to participate in occasional off-ice promotional activity.
The bad: I entered "Semyon Varlamov" into a Russian-to-English dictionary, and it came back "Steve Penney".
Biggest question mark: Why does every photograph of Mike Green look like it was taken three seconds after somebody woke him up?
Fearless forecast: The Capitals win 50 games, or more than the Nationals, Wizards and Redskins combined.

Florida Panthers

The good: Recently named Bryan McCabe captain.
The bad: Oops, that last one was supposed to be listed under "the bad". I guess Bryan's not the only one who gets confused about which side things are supposed to go in.
Biggest question mark: With Jay Bouwmeester's departure, which veteran will step up and teach the younger players what it takes to miss the playoffs every single year?
Fearless forecast: A guy who looks oddly like Jim Balsillie starts spending a lot of time in South Florida.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The good: Vincent Lecavlier appears poised for the sort of big year the team had in mind when they signed him to an $80M extension.
The bad: That apparently makes him the only person associated with this franchise who has any actual money.
Biggest question mark: Wouldn't it be better if we all just agreed that the lockout actually started in May of 2004?
Fearless forecast: The Montreal Canadiens make an aggressive deadline push to trade for Martin St. Louis in an attempt to add size.

Carolina Hurricanes

The good: Cam Ward's stellar play continues to indicate that he hasn't yet realized that he's Cam Ward.
The bad: While Ric Flair may be a native South Carolinian, having a crazy old white-haired man scream maniacally is really just an uncreative ripoff of Don Cherry.
Biggest question mark: Does Aaron Ward get one free sucker punch on Scott Walker to use whenever he wants? (Answer: Yes.)
Fearless forecast: The free agent signing of Tom Kostopolous forces coach Paul Maurice to slightly modify his famous quote to "There was a lot of purse stealing out there."

Accurate NHL predictions: Hard, but not impossible.

There's been some confusion over my recent post about NHL predictions that I'd like to clarify. While I argued that the endless predictions by so-called experts were generally pointless and almost always laughably wrong, I wasn't trying to imply that hockey predictions are never accurate.

In fact, some experts really do seem able to predict the future with an almost creepy degree of accuracy. It's rare, yes, but it does happen.

Here are three examples, chosen completely at random.

Source: Behind the scenes: the Leafs deadline day war room (March 2009)
Prediction: "A confused Pavel Kubina phones to ask why the guy in charge putting together the Atlanta Thrashers 2009 media guide just showed up to take his picture."
Reality: Four months later, Pavel Kubina is traded to the Atlanta Thrashers.

Source: 10 Random Leafs predictions (October 2008)
Prediction: "...this year, Blake looks sharp. Whether he's come to grips with his medical issues or just decided to refocus after a tough year he's looked good in the pre-season. Here's betting that he puts together a decent year -- let's say 25 goals."
Reality: Jason Blake puts together a decent year, and scores 25 goals.

Source: Five games in... (October 2008)
Prediction: "Dominic Moore is playing so well that I'm going to give him a new nickname: Dominic 'Second Round Pick at the 2009 Deadline' Moore."
Reality: Six months later, Moore is traded for a second round pick at the 2009 deadline.

So as you can see, it's not impossible to make amazingly accurate predictions. It's just that you need to be really, really smart. And witty. And also handsome.

A look ahead at the Maple Leafs 2009-10 schedule

The Maple Leafs 2009-2010 schedule was released today. And since we already have a pretty good idea what all the rosters will look like next year, that means I could spend the afternoon loading everything into the top-secret DGB supercomputer to find out what will happen.

After several hours of flashing lights and whirring noises, I had my answer. Based on today's schedule, here are several highlights from the upcoming Leafs season.

(Warning: The following contains spoilers. If you want to be surprised, stop reading now.)

October 1 - The Leafs play the Montreal Canadiens in the season opener. Sadly, the traditional intermission "timbits" game is ruined when Bob Gainey wanders onto the ice and offers everyone contracts.

October 3 - The Leafs head to Washington. Hoping to catch the Capitals off guard, Ron Wilson gives Justin Pogge the surprise start in net. In a related story, Alexander Ovechkin becomes the first player in the league to reach the 50 goal mark.

October 10 - The Leafs host the Stanley Cup champion Penguins. Unfortunately, Evgeni Malkin and Tyler Kennedy are forced to miss the game after coming down with a bad case of the Schenn Flu.

October 17 - The Leafs host the Rangers, and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "I know some fans don't support me," says Heatley, "but I'm just thrilled to be playing hockey again."

October 17 - 24 - After a gruelling half-month of hockey, the NHL's schedule makers decide that the Leafs need a full week off. Gary Bettman defends the move by explaining "We sensed that fans were really starting to get excited about hockey, and wanted to nip that in the bud."

November 1 - 30 - The Leafs play 13 games during the month. Ron Wilson calls for a stick measurement in every single one, just to annoy Howard Berger.

November 13 - The Leafs head to Chicago for their only game of the season against their longtime rivals. In other Blackhawk news, Dale Tallon starts to get a sinking feeling that he forgot to register his kids for school.

December 7 - Nik Antropov and Pavel Kubina return to Toronto as members of the Atlanta Thrashers. After hours of answering questions about what it was like to play in Toronto, how exciting it was to play in a city that cares about hockey, and how difficult it is now to play in front of so few fans, they finally tell Ilya Kovalchuk to just be quiet and wait for free agency.

December 9 - The Leafs host the Islanders. During an intermission interview, John Tavares attempts to blink out a message asking someone to come rescue him.

December 14 - In a game that recalls the infamous "Flu Game" of 2004, the Leafs are awarded a forfeit win after the Ottawa Senators refuse to take the ice in what will later be known as the "Schenn Flu Game".

December 16 - The Leafs host the Phoenix Coyotes. Jim Balsillie buys every ticket, sits in the front row, and spends the entire game lighting cigars with $100 bills while giving the camera the finger.

December 26 - The Leafs host the Montreal Canadiens on Boxing Day. That ends up being somewhat ironic, since there are several incidents of fisticuffs during the game. And also because every player on the Canadiens goes home in a pine box.

January 8 - The Leafs kick off a four-game homestand with a game in Buffalo.

January 26 - The LA Kings make their only visit to Toronto. Brian Burke leaves early, presumably to catch a flight as he's seen dragging a heavy duffel bag out of the arena. In an unrelated story, the Kings report that Brayden Schenn has gone missing.

January 29 - February 5 - The Leafs play Jacques Lemaire and the Devils three times in one week. Leaf fans look back fondly on that comparatively thrilling week in October when there weren't any games.

February 8 - The Leafs host the Sharks, and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "It's unfortunate that things didn't work out in New York," Heatley says, "but I'm happy to be in San Jose because I'm all about the team."

February 12 - The NHL breaks for the Olympics games, a grueling three-week tournament featuring the very best players from around the world. Or, as the entire Maple Leafs roster calls it, "February".

March 11 - The Leafs host the Lightning, and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "I really think this will be a good fit," Heatley says. "When do the world championships start?"

March 13 - Prior to playing the Leafs, the Edmonton Oilers assure everyone that they're still totally in on the Dany Heatley sweepstakes.

April 4 - The World Health Organization declares Schenn Flu to be a global pandemic. They advise anyone who has ever thought about bodychecking a Leafs player to remain in an underground bunker for the next 15-20 years.

April 7 - The Maple Leafs are mathematically eliminated from the 2011 playoffs.

April 10 - On their way back to Toronto after the season finale, the Leafs stop at a McDonalds drivethru and get their first look at the newly acquired Dany Heatley. "I really think I handled everything well this year," says Heatley. "Would you like fries with that?"

Leafs sign Mike Komisarek

Well, it didn't take long for the Leafs to spend Pavel Kubina's money. They've signed former Hab Mike Komisarek.

Right now, the Leafs have a better defense and are a much tougher team than they were seven hours ago. The goaltending is still weak and the offensive depth is thinner than Mike Ribeiro's ankles, but you can't ask Burke to fix everything in one day.

This signing also gives the Leafs somebody other than Mike Van Ryn to get destroyed several times a year by Milan Lucic.

Burke is having a good day. Leaf fans are too.

Truculence.

Still waiting

It's been over five hours since free agency started, and here's a comprehensive list of the Leafs signings so far:

• Colton Orr

That is all.

This isn't the worst news in the world, since free agency is the one day of the year when teams can make truly devastating mistakes. A quiet July 1 isn't the worst thing that can happen to a team, especially one that's rebuilding.

But at the same time, we go back to what Brian Burke told us about his plan. He said he'd be active today, and so far he hasn't backed it up. Just like at the draft, what Burke told us he wanted to do and what he's actually done seem to be two very different lists.

That said, it seems obvious that the Sedins were the prime target today, and they were taken off the grid with a few minutes before noon. Burke was in Sweden ready to make his pitch, and he never got the chance. That's hardly his fault.

Still... there has to be something coming, doesn't there? Mike Cammalleri seems headed to the Habs, but Komisarek and Beauchemin are both still out there. Of course, the Leafs may need to move a defenceman first.

Speaking of which... the reported Kubina to Atlanta deal seems to be in limbo. Multiple outlets have now said that Colby Armstrong is not in the deal, if there even is a deal at all.

Remember, Damien Cox reported his deal hours ago. And while I regularly knock his cut-and-paste columns, he's rarely wrong on his facts. I still expect it to happen, but right now nothing has been confirmed.

(Update: Just as I post, TSN is now saying the deal is Kubina for Exelby.)

Pavel Kubina traded to Thrashers?

A confused Pavel Kubina phones to ask why the guy in charge putting together the Atlanta Thrashers 2009 media guide just showed up to take his picture.

DGB post, March 7, 2009

Damien Cox is reporting that the Leafs have dealt Pavel Kubina to Atlanta. Various rumors say that Colby Armstrong is coming back the other way. Neither detail has been officially confirmed. (Update: Reports are now saying Armstrong is not in the deal.)

If true, the deal would save the Leafs almost $4M in cap room. The big question is which UFA is getting Kubina's money. Reports have the Leafs chasing Mike Cammalleri and Mike Komisarek.

I think there's a lesson here: if your team clearly wants to trade you, and they ask you to waive your NTC two years in a row so they can trade you to a contender... you might just want to waive. Because otherwise, you might wind up in Atlanta.

As for Armstrong, he brings belligerence. With Colton Orr's truculence already signed and sealed, Burke's shopping list is now down to pugnacity and testosterone.

The Toronto Maple Leafs in the community

Our friends at PPP had a nice writeup about Luke's Troops, a program in which Leafs' rookie Luke Schenn donates a pair of seats for each game to a member of the Canadian Armed Forces returning home from service.

While this program is certainly admirable, it got me wondering about what other types of charitable donations and community service the Leafs are up to. So after making a few phone calls, I've compiled this list of programs that current and recent members of the Maple Leafs organization are involved in.

Burkie's Boys
A local orphanage receives a donation of a nickel every time Leafs GM Brian Burke makes a media appearance. Note: shortly after the trade deadline, the orphanage relocated to a small Caribbean island they'd purchased.

Howard Helps Out
Leafs beat reporter Howard Berger donates his time to the local sick kids hospital. This program has been dormant for several months, since Berger did all his giving in November when it actually mattered.

Fergie's Friends
Selected charities are given the opportunity to approach former Leafs GM John Ferguson with a request for what they feel would be a fair donation. Ferguson then immediately responds by offering them triple that amount, every year, for all of eternity.

It Could Be Worse
Victims of serious car crashes, workplace accidents and other life-altering injuries are shown videos of Wendel Clark fighting guys like Dave Mackey, Slava Fetisov and Bob Brooke, and come away realizing that things could be a lot worse.

The Martin Gerber Second Chance Program
Out-of-work derelicts who have been deemed unemployable due to a lack of marketable skills are given an opportunity to work again. Note: Gerber himself is not actually involved in this charity; it's named after him because he was the program's first recipient.

Kyle's Kupboard
This popular program by former Leaf Kyle Wellwood encouraged fans to drop potato chips and candy bars into a large box near Wellwood's locker. While nobody's sure exactly which food bank received the donations, they obviously worked fast because by the next day there was never anything left but empty wrappers and crumbs.

The Mats Sundin "Entire Journey" Program
This program was established by Mats Sundin when he first arrived in Toronto fifteen years ago. As of today, no final decision has been made on the campaign's format, goals and participants.

Pogge's Posse
Young fans who would otherwise have only a slim hope of ever being part of a Maple Leafs game at the ACC are invited to spend some time commiserating with Marlie's goalie Justin Pogge, who informs them that he can definitely relate.

Gabbing with Grabby
Mikhail Grabovski speaks at local high schools, reminding socially challenged kids that it's still possible to be marginally successful in your chosen career even though you're generally creepy and weird and everybody you meet feels a strong urge to punch you.

Blake's Buddies
Jason Blake speaks to cancer patients about his own battle with the disease, giving practical advice such as "Make sure you sign your $20M contract before the final tests come back," and "Look on the bright side, at least this will give everyone something to talk about instead of your albinoism".

The NHL's Revenue Sharing Program
Don't spend it all in one place, Phoenix.

Habitat for Kubanity
Leafs defenceman Pavel Kubina performs advocacy work on behalf of Toronto's many homeless squatters, due to his deep personal empathy for people who absolutely refuse to leave a hopeless situation even though it's obvious that nobody wants them there anymore.

Rolling the Dice With Dominic
Buffalo Sabres forward Dominic Moore returns to Toronto periodically to lecture on the dangers of gambling, delivering a moving speech called "How trying to get a little more money can unexpectedly result in you winding up stuck in a terrible hellhole that reeks of misery and hopelessness".

Mike Van Ryn Inspirational Hospital Visits
In an attempt to raise spirits and bring a sense of hope to a difficult situation, local children go to the hospital to visit Mike Van Ryn.

Behind the scenes: the Leafs deadline day war room

Hockey fans love trade deadline day, even though few of us will ever know what really goes on behind the scenes.

Well, I decided to find out. So with the help of some top secret internal sources (thanks Cliff!), I was able to plant several microphones and hidden cameras around the Maple Leafs war room on deadline day.

What follows is a never-before-seen level of detail on what an NHL front office looks like on the busiest day of the year.

8:45 a.m. - Leafs GM Brian Burke arrives early, and immediately begins furiously working the phones in an attempt to line up his media appearances for the day.

9:24 - Leafs assistant GM Dave Nonis takes a call from a rival GM asking what the Leafs would want in exchange for Luke Schenn. While talks are initially encouraging, they ultimately fail after Nonis is still listing players and picks when the 3:00 deadline passes.

10:00 - Concerned about the recent winning streak and its impact on draft position, Burke meets with Vesa Toskala in the parking lot to suggest that the red-hot goalie should go on the IR. When Toskala protests that he's not injured, Burke nods in the direction of Tim Hunter, who emerges from the shadows holding a baseball bat.

10:05 - Vesa Toskala agrees that he needs to go on the IR.

10:32 - Burke calls Montreal GM Bob Gainey, only to find out that Gainey has taken the day off.

10:57 - For the fifth time that day, a rival GM calls the Leafs front office asking to speak with John Ferguson Jr. and is devastated to learn he no longer works there.

11:12 - Burke calls Panthers GM Jacques Martin to ask for a scouting report on Jay Bouwmeester, his health records, and information on his salary demands. When Martin asks if he can call him back in an hour, Burke says "no problem, I won't actually need any of this until July 1."

11:27 - Struggling somewhat on his first deadline day in a front office, Joe Nieuwendyk accidentally trades himself to the Devils.

11:45 - Disguising his voice, Burke calls Kevin Lowe to ask if Dustin Penner is available, then laughs hysterically at how excited Lowe gets.

12:15 - With a sinking feeling, Leafs assistant GM Jeff Jackson realizes that the note on his desk that reads "Jeff, please pick up Gerber" is not actually in Brian Burke's handwriting, seems to be from his wife, and probably refers to baby food.

12:37 - Burke takes a break to update his hilarious DownGoesBrown twitter parody.

12:56 - A confused Pavel Kubina phones to ask why the guy in charge putting together the Atlanta Thrashers 2009 media guide just showed up to take his picture.

1:05 - The entire Leafs front office gathers around a computer to read Eklund's latest updates on Hockeybuzz, gaining valuable insight into which rumored trades are guaranteed not to happen.

1:20 - Burke steps out for some fresh air. Upon seeing a homeless panhandler pathetically begging for scraps of food and spare change, Burke makes a mental note to start calling southern market teams to see if he can buy their draft picks.

1:45 - A fellow GM calls to ask Burke if he'd be interested in a Lee Stempniak deal. After Burke angrily explains that the last thing he needs is some underachieving fourth-liner, the other GM is forced to awkwardly break the news that Stempniak has been playing for the Leafs for four months.

2:11 - While discussing details of a proposed Nik Antropov deal, New York GM Glen Sather offers to throw in a conditional draft pick if the Rangers make it to the conference finals.

2:14 - After three straight minutes of listening to Burke laugh and pound the table, Sather informs him that he was actually serious about that.

2:42 - In a tragic misunderstanding, Burke responds to Dominic Moore's plea that "I just want to play in front of 19,000 diehard Leaf fans every night" by trading him to Buffalo.

2:57 - With only minutes to go until the deadline, Burke turns down last-minute offers of a second round pick for Ian White, and a first round pick for Ian White's moustache.

3:45 - As he prepares for his post-deadline press conference, the rest of the front office bets Burke that he can't talk about fielding offers for Tomas Kaberle and claim that he never asks players to waive their NTCs in the same sentence without at least somebody in the Toronto media catching on.

5:30 - Sitting alone at the arrivals gate of the Nashville International Airport, a confused Alex Ponikoravsky wonders why nobody is coming to pick him up.

6:30 - Before heading home after a busy day, Burke slides a slice of stale bread under the door of the storage closet where Richard Peddie has been kept chained and bound since November.

Time to pull the trigger, Cliff

The Leafs have a terrible problem right now that most team wish they had.

They have too many NHL defencemen. And somebody needs to do something about it.

It's becoming more apparent every day that Luke Schenn isn't going anywhere. With Schenn, Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina guaranteed a lineup spot every night, that leaves six players fighting for three spots.

If newly heatlhy Jeff Finger is also considered an everyday player (and his contract would hint that he is), that leaves five guys fighting for just two spots: Stralman, Frogren, Van Ryn, Colaiacovo and White.

All five guys have upside. All five can play in the NHL. And none will have a chance to get in any sort of groove if they're shuffling in and out of the lineup every night.

The glut of defencemen also means that Jiri Tlusty had to be sent down. That may have a good move anyway, since Tlusty hasn't done much of anything so far this season. But demoting a prospect is not something a rebuilding team like the Leafs should ever be forced into doing.

Another negative side effect of carrying nine defencemen: it leaves on 12 forwards on the roster. Remember how great it was to see Ron Wilson hold veteran like Jason Blake and Matt Stajan accountable for their bad habits by sending them to the press box? That's history now. Every forward on the roster knows they get to play every night now... and that includes useless fourth-liner Ryan Hollweg.

So enough is enough. It's time to move one of these defenceman. Let's make a deal.

Fletcher told reporters this week that he plans to hold onto his defencemen "until somebody blows us away". In a perfect world, that's the way to go. But the Leafs world is far from perfect right now, and this doesn't feel like the time to be stubborn.

Let's face it, nobody is going to step up with a knock-your-socks-off offer for Ian White. While I'm as big a fan of Colaiacovo as you'll probably find in Leafland, there won't be any GMs looking to sell the farm for the guy. In fact, none of the Leafs five pressbox-warmers are worth much right now.

And let's face it, the price is only going to drop each time they're listed as healthy scratches.

Sure, maybe in a few weeks some team will run into injury trouble on the blueline and Cliff would be able to squeeze them for a fourth-rounder for White instead of a fifth. So be it. That's the chance you take.

Pull the trigger, Cliff. Give one of these kids a chance to resume their career somewhere else. And call up a forward (Tlusty, or somebody else who's earned it) to allow Wilson to keep everyone honest.

And do it soon.

And the next Leafs captain should be...

"C" no evil

This burning question in the Barilkosphere for the last week or so, other than "is it actually possible to screw up a no-trade scenario any worse than Bryan McCabe did?" has been around the identity of the next Leafs captain. Who should get the honor, assuming Sundin isn't back?

(And don't worry, eyebeleaf -- even I wouldn't suggest we strip Sundin of his 'C' if he re-signs¹.)

The Leafs have recently made a habit of bringing their old captains back to the fold: Wendel twice, and Dougie once. It says here that they should do it again.

They should award this year's captaincy to the same player who had it from 1986-89.

Nobody.

Back then, the Leafs didn't have any especially good candidates for the captain's job. The team wasn't very good, their few decent players were too young to carry a leadership role, and they didn't have much in the way of veteran presence. Stop me if any of this sounds familiar.

Faced with that scenario, and for perhaps the only time during the Ballard years, the Leafs did the right thing. They played without a captain for three years.

They should do it again. The current Leafs roster doesn't have a single player who deserves to wear the "C". And since there's no rule that says you need to have a captain, and no real disadvantage to going without one, the Leafs should declare the captaincy vacant for at least one season.

Let's look at the candidates on the current roster:

An established veteran like Tomas Kaberle, Pavel Kubina or Nik Antropov - Kaberle is a decent option, and would be my choice if I had to choose somebody. He's the longest serving Leaf, he's probably the best player on the team, and he's kept his nose clean. But from all accounts he's not much of a dressing room presence, preferring to stand aside and let others take on leadership duties. Could he grow into a more vocal leadership role? Sure. And if he does, he should be the next captain -- sometime in the next few years.

Kubina has been linked to the captaincy this week, and Antropov has been mentioned in various spots. But Antropov has essentially had one good season as a Leaf, and Kubina has arguably had one good month. And either one could become trade bait at this year's deadline, if not sooner. A captain should be somebody a team is committed to in the long term. I'm not sure either of these guys are in that category.

Besides, it's been well-established that the Leafs dressing room became a country club over the past few years. Players weren't held accountable, the same lazy errors happened over and over again, and nobody ever seemed all that bothered by any of it. Do any of the veterans who were part of last year's leadership core really deserve another shot so soon after that disaster?

A veteran newcomer like Jamal Mayers. No way. You don't hand your captaincy over to a new guy unless they're among the great leaders in the game. And with apologies to Mayers, who seems like a solid guy on and off the ice, he's not exactly Mark Messier.

One of the kids, like Alex Steen or Matt Stajan - There's certainly plenty of precedent for handing a captaincy over to a youngster. But that's an honor typically reserved for franchise players like Yzerman or Crosby who the team is looking to build around for the next decade. There's nobody on the Leafs roster who even comes close to that level of talent or potential.

Stajan and Steen may have some leadership skills, and either could be a captain in the league someday. But again, why rush it, especially in a pressure-packed market like Toronto? After all, the last time the Leafs let an untested youngster take over an important role, it didn't work out so well.

All of the above: rotate the captaincy - This idea seems to be picking up steam lately, including being raised as a possibility by Fletcher. It may be the worst option of all.

I don't want to get all traditional on you, but we're talking about the Toronto Maple Leafs here, not the Minnesota Wild. The captaincy of an Original Six team, even one wallowing in last place, should mean something. The Leafs have had six captains in the past 30 years. Do they really want to add six more in one season?

So leave the "C" on the sidelines for 2008-09. Use four alternate captains. See who steps up to fill the leadership void, and what kind of impact they can have. If somebody emerges as the team's undisputed leader, then and only then do you hand them the captaincy.

If it happens in time for next season, great. If not, better to go without for a few years than to force the role onto somebody who doesn't deserve it.

¹But if he has three bad games in a row, ship him to the Marlies.

Shocking news: Winning is fun

From today's Toronto Sun.

Hal Gill needs to send Cliff Fletcher a nice "Thank You Card."

Had Fletcher not shipped the towering defenceman at the Feb. 26 trade deadline from the Maple Leafs to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a 2008 second-round draft pick and a fifth rounder in '09, Gill would be hitting golf balls right now, not opposing forwards.

"I miss the guys (in Toronto) but this is pretty exciting," Gill said of the anticipation he is feeling about his first appearance in a Stanley Cup final.

He has reason to be stoked. One moment you are playing for a Leafs team headed for nowhere; the next, you are on a star-studded Penguins squad that is on the road to the Stanley Cup final.

Gill admits his days in Toronto seem like a million years ago.

"I kind of fit in here in Pittsburgh right away," he said. "It's not easy to click all the time. Your world is tossed upside down but in this case the pieces all fell into place."

"I'll tell you one thing," added Gill. "I'm sure glad I don't have to worry about facing Mats Sundin in the finals. On that Wings team, he'd be unstoppable, the toast of the hockey world. It's a good thing he doesn't care about winning, or else I'd really have my work cut out."

Yes, I made one of those paragraphs up.

But imagine that. Apparently, playing for your first Stanley Cup ring is more fun than holding your wife's purse while she tries on shoes at the Eaton Centre.

Look, I don't ask for much. But I'm asking -- nay, demanding -- that somebody cut out a few copies of this article and mail them to McCabe, Tucker, Sundin, Kaberle and Kubina.

If you wanted to, maybe add in a bonus item to Sundin's envelope: a photoshopped picture of him playing on a line with Chris Higgens and Jeff Carter. With a little note that says "Thanks for nothing".

Optimism Week is over, in case you were wondering.

20 Good Things About the 2007-08 Leafs

Optimism Week continues at Down Goes Brown. My first post this week was kind of a copout, since I spent most of it talking about other teams. Baby steps, people.

But today, we're going all out. For this post, I will choose 20 members of the Leafs organization and say something nice about them.

Can I do it? Is it possible that 20 good things happened in this writeoff of a season? Let's find out.

Wait, why is the goalie wearing blue too?

Bryan McCabe - Offensive contribution was actually greater than stats would indicate, thanks to obscure NHL bylaw that only gives credit for goals scored into opponent's net.

Andrew Raycroft - Much like Martin Brodeur (chip shot off glass) and Rick DiPietro (quick outlet pass from behind net), has developed his own trademark play for clearing the zone: "faceoff at center ice".

Kyle Wellwood - Knows that despite advances in theoretical physics, scientists still can't explain exactly how gravity functions or rule out the slim possibility that it could unexpectedly cease to work in the future. So just in case, bravely dedicated his summer to making sure his couch didn't float away.

Mark Bell - Crushed every Sens fan's will to live by injuring Mike Fisher, destroying Daniel Alfredsson, and then somehow sneaking onto the ScotiaBank Place ice before a playoff game dressed as a fat guy in a gladiator helmet.

Anton Stralman - Certainly cleared up any lingering confusion over that whole "the next Niklas Lidstrom" thing.

Nik Antropov - Was arguably the only Leaf to exceed expectations this year, scoring just enough big goals to singlehandedly keep the team from getting a top draft pick.

It's getting closer, closer... hey, what does that horn mean?

Vesa Toskala - Constantly finding new and creative ways to challenge himself, such as resolving to stop all 180-foot slapshots using only sense of smell.

Jason Blake - Revolutionized youth hockey coaching by dedicating entire season to single-handedly disproving the old "It's never a bad play to shoot the puck" theory.

Carlo Colaiacovo - Successfully read this sentence without hurting himself.

Andy Wozniewski - Showed impressive courage and determination by repeatedly suiting up for NHL games despite being really, really horrible at playing hockey.

Jeremy Williams - Showed tremendous respect for the head coach who gave him two minutes of ice time a night, eventually realizing he was embarassing him by scoring every single game and cutting that out.

Cliff Fletcher - Is proactively working to improve the team the best way he knows how -- by repeatedly calling up Minnesota GM Doug Riseborough and asking him if he feels like trading his best players for a five-pack of crap.

Darcy Tucker - Fulfilled obligations as corporate spokesperson by always remembering to wear his "Kewl" brand hat during post-game interviews, or would have, had he ever done anything that would warrant a post-game interview.

Alex Steen - His play served as a soothing reminder for Leafs fans that all those first rounders JFJ traded away wouldn't necessarily have ended up being very good anyways.

Justin Pogge - Currently with the Marlies gaining extensive experience in not taking part in the playoffs, which will be invaluable once he graduates to the Leafs roster.

Pavel Kubina - Played about 20 minutes a game, scored a handful of big goals, and wasn't bad defensively. And hey, that's about all you can ask from a $5 million defenceman, right?

Ian White - Not one of those obnoxious spotlight-seeking pro atheletes who tries to hog media attention by ever actually doing anything noteworthy.

"What the hell, go ahead and take most of October and November off too."

Paul Maurice - Is a totally cool boss who lets his employees leave two months early every year.

Tomas Kaberle - Four-for-four performance in accuracy shooting during NHL Skills competition answered the age old question "Is Tomas Kaberle physically capable of actually shooting the god-damned puck?"

Mats Sundin - Sent a powerful message about loyalty, leadership, and finishing what you start, which will no doubt prove exceedingly inspirational for his new teammates once he signs with Detroit this summer.

So now what?

Now that the pulse has stopped and we're two Flyer mudhole-stompings away from the official funeral, it's time to start thinking of the future.

No, not the long-term future. Thanks to Mats "I would do anything for love, but I won't do that" Sundin, we don't have one worth thinking about. Let's focus on the short-term. What should the Maple Leafs do over the next 12 games before they pack up their gear and head out for yet another early vacation?

I think it has to be a three-point plan. Here's what you do, and why you do it.

1. Play the kids.
I'd call this a no-brainer but that would be interpreted as a shot at Paul Maurice. So let's just say that conventional hockey wisdom is with me on this one.

The days of young players getting three or four minutes of icetime a night needs to end, right now. That doesn't mean you bench every veteran and let the kids run the show. But it does mean that you start grooming the youth for the roles they're expected to play next year and beyond.

That means that it's time to find out if Tlusty can play on a powerplay unit, whether Stralman can handle 22 minutes a game, and whether guys like Earl and Newbury can keep the energy level up for more than a shift or two per period.

Why?
Because it's time to figure out whay you've got in these kids. There may be some decent talent here, but I don't think any of the young players in Toronto are sure things. Some will turn into solid NHLers. Some won't. The sooner you start to sort them out, the better.

Whoever replaces Cliff Fletcher is going to want to know what these guys can do at the NHL level. Would you want to explain to Brian Burke -- er, I mean the mysterious future GM -- that you don't know who can do what because you were too busy boosting Jason Blake's powerplay time?

2. Play Raycroft
Not every game, and not even most games. But get Raycroft in there for at least three or four games the rest of the way. As a rule of thumb, start Toskala in games that have a critical impact on the other side's playoff chances, and split up the rest.

Why?
Ideally Raycroft will play well enough to increase his trade value from "zero" to "marginally above zero". Even if he doesn't, Toskala's groin could probably use some rest. And a third reason that not many people have talked about: Raycroft has earned it.

Yes, his play has been awful and I'll be the first in line to dance on his metaphorical grave when he's gone in the offseason, but say this for him: he's handled this situation with class from day one. As a hockey fan in Ottawa, I know that a backup goalie with a sour attitude can destroy the best of teams from the inside out.

Raycroft doesn't deserve any cheers for his play this year. But his willingness to take the high road entitles him to at least a round of polite applause, and a handful of chances to showcase whatever NHL skills he may have for his next employer.

3. Don't tank
You read that right.

Once you've taken care of the first two points, you continue to do everything else in your power to win. Expect the players to play hard when they're on the ice. Pull the goalie when you're down late. Fight right up until the final whistle.

Why?
Not because you owe it to the fans who "pay good money" to see you -- after all, most of the church-mice at the ACC have expensed their tickets long ago.

But playing hard sends the right message to the young players. This team has accepted losing with a shrug for too long. That's going to change next year, if Fletcher can be believed, so you might as well start ramping up the intensity now.

And besides, playing hard is just the right thing to do. Karma counts for something.

Are the Leafs the softest team in the NHL?

I've been thinking about this topic for a few days, but after watching Ponikarovsky get pummeled tonight while his teammates stood around pretending not to notice, I think it's now a legitimate question: are the Leafs the softest team in the entire NHL right now?

A quick check over a hockeyfights.com shows that the Leafs have had only 21 fighting majors this year, ranking 28th out of 30 teams.

It gets worse. That pathetic number is actually grossly inflated as far as the current lineup goes, since the players responsible for most of those fights are no longer with the team. Between the trades of Belak (six) and Gill (two), the injury to Bell (four) and the demotions of Battaglia and Ondrus (one each), the current Leafs lineup has only managed seven fighting majors on the year.

I'll pause here so you can read that last sentence again.

It gets worse. Those seven fights have come from Darcy Tucker, Kris Newbury, Matt Stajan and Bryan McCabe. So the only players in the lineup tonight to have dropped their gloves all year are two guys who are 5'10 on their tippy toes, one guy who had never fought before in his life, and a guy who can't remember which net to shoot at in overtime.

Of course, fighting isn't the only measure of team toughness (although it's a pretty good one, right Ducks fans?). But in the case of the Leafs, I don't think the fighting totals are some sort of aberration or fluke. This is just an easy team to play against these days, almost ridiculously easy to push around and completely incapable of even the slightest intimidation.

This isn't a new development -- remember last year's pathetic display in New Jersey, as the entire team watched their best player get scraped off the ice after a dirty hit from a no-talent thug and did exactly nothing about it? This team was soft at the start of the year, and the recent moves have only made the situation worse.

It wasn't always this way. Ever since the excellent Kordic for Courtnall deal, the Leafs have ranged from adequately tough to downright nasty for almost two decades, culminating in the 2002-4 era squad that would occasionally jump into opponent's benches or try to kick guys in the head during fights. Or, as we call it in Toronto, "the glory years".

Am I overstating the case? I don't think so, but I wanted to be fair about it. So let's take a look at the current squad, player by player. And there's only one fair way to do that -- with a completely arbitrary Toughness Scale™ that I just invented right now.

Level 1 - That guy looked at me funny, I better shut it down for the rest of the game just in case.

Tomas Kaberle - Probably the only Leaf on Level 1 who has the talent to justify it.

Johnny Pohl - Not likely to stick with the team after this year, but based on his name he could have a promising career in porn.

Anton Stralman - The rookie may still be finding his comfort zone, but so far he hasn’t shown much in this department.

Jiri Tlusty - Certainly has potential, but so far has been disappointingly soft. Was that a naked photo joke? You be the judge.

Kyle Wellwood - I’m flattering him with this ranking.

Ian White - That’s three of our six defencemen at level one, for those keeping track. I can’t imagine why this team doesn’t play well in its own zone.

Level 2 - All things considered I’d really rather stay here on the perimeter, thanks

Jason Blake - Wasn’t he supposed to be an “agitator”? Was that supposed to refer to the other team, or just Leaf fans?

Boyd Devereaux - Pro: He’s on the checking line. Con: May have the wimpiest name in Leaf history.

Dominic Moore - I haven’t seen much of him, to be honest. But he plays on the checking line, so he must have some sandpaper. Also gets extra room because players are afraid that if they hit him, he’ll get the family lawyer to sue them for millions.

Matt Stajan - This may be stretching it. But at least he was the one Leaf who looked mad during the 8-0 Panther game, so that’s something.

Alexander Steen - Much like his offensive contributions, the gritty side of his game shows up about once every two weeks and then goes back into hibernation. Still, anyone who can stagger Chara with a hit gets to stay clear of level one.

Jeremy Williams - To be honest, I couldn’t tell you how tough he is because Maurice only gives him ice time during Wellwood’s gravy-chug breaks.

Level 3 - Not looking to start anything, but won’t run and hide

Nik Antropov - He’s big, and just a little bit crazy. Almost never fights and is disturbingly injury prone, but he gets points for being just about the only player on the entire team who seems to be aware that the NHL got rid of the “in the crease” rule.

Carlo Colaiacovo - Is one of the league’s under-rated open ice hitters. Several times a year he’ll spot someone with their head down, launch himself at them, lay them out, and then spend a month of the injured list recovering. That still gives him enough time to land six or seven hits a year, which has him vying for the team lead.

Pavel Kubina - Not a fighter, but has an occasional mean streak that will serve him well in Columbus or Edmonton or whatever level of hell Fletcher can dispatch him to.

Bryan McCabe - Total NHL fights before signing $28M contract - 58. Total fights after signing $28M contract - 2. Just sayin'.

Alex Ponikarovsky - I’m probably overrating him, but he does seem to have a touch of that Danny Markov-style "could snap at any time" edge to him. Don’t forget, this guy once went toe-to-toe with Rob Ray. Yes, he lost the fight, ending the Leafs 14-year streak of victories over Rob Ray, but he still gets some points from this corner.

Mats Sundin - He doesn’t change his game one bit when the going gets tough. He’s probably a little soft for someone his size, but reasonably tough for someone of his skill level. Rumor is he’d like to fight, but his gloves stubbornly refuse to waive their no-drop clause.

Level 4 - Not afraid to go looking for trouble

Mark Bell - Prior to his injury, showed that he was definitely willing to get his nose dirty – usually with his own blood and fragments of his orbital bone. May be pound-for-pound the worst fighter in the league not named Hal Gill, but at least he looked interested when the temperature went up.

Kris Newbury - He’s ready and willing. The jury is still out on the “able” part, though. I like this kid, but let’s put it this way–you’re never going to see a game where the opponent's tough guy throws a few big hits, and the camera pans dramatically over to Kris Newbury snarling on the bench.

Darcy Tucker - He seems to have permanently buried the Sideshow Bob persona, but will still throw his weight around. Unfortunately, that ends up being about 165 lbs. Will still drop the mitts, though, even when he knows he’s taking one for the team. At least a 20% chance he snaps this year, tries to fight a legitmate heavyweight and is killed, which will have interesting salary cap implications.

Level 5 - Genuinely intimidating

Um...

(Crickets chirping)

(Tumblewed blows by.)

So what do you think? Have I been too harsh? Too easy on them? Is this in fact the softest team in the entire NHL?

The 2008 Deadline Disaster Blame-o-Meter

Now that the Great Trade Deadline Disaster of '08 has come and gone with nothing meaningful to show for it, there's not much left for a Leaf fan to do except point fingers. And luckily, there's plenty of targets available. You know what that means: time to fire up the Blame-o-Meter™.

As always¹, we'll start at zero (no blame) and work out way up to ten (get the firing squad). Let's see where it all shakes out...

0 - The fans
Just putting this out there, since you know the Damien Cox's of the world will find a way to pin this on us. Remember folks, don't blame the victim.

1 - Cliff Fletcher
The Silver Fox did what he could, which turned out to be not much. Even though he was the guy running the show on Dud-line Day, he had little room to maneuver once the NTC 5 (a.k.a. the Loser Brigade) decided to stick around. Could he have salvaged the situation by playing hardball early on? Maybe, but at the time his nice guy routine seemed like the way to go.

2 - Tomas Kaberle
Out of all the NTC 5, Kaberle is the toughest to get worked up over. Unlike the rest of the group, he's actually being paid at or below market value, so it's tough to begrudge him his NTC. And he's played at an all-star level these past few years, unlike some other defencemen I could mention.

3 - Richard Peddie
Good old Ricky Lipsynch actually managed to stay out of the way at the deadline, probably because he was too busy screwing up the hiring of the next GM. But he's done his damage, and many of this week's problems can be traced to his moronic leadership.

4 - Paul Maurice
How can a coach be blamed for what goes down on Deadline Day? Maybe he can't, at least directly. But it's clear from the eagerness of the NTC 5 to stay in Toronto come hell or high water that the Leafs dressing room is a pretty comfortable place to be these days. The next star player Maurice benches, sends to the press box or publicly admonishes will be the first.

Yes, his dry wit and little boy smirk make him popular with the local press (who judge everyone based solely on their media availability). But if he'd bothered to ask for even a little bit of accountability from his listless veterans this year, would they have been so eager to stick around and ride out another last place finish?

5 - Darcy Tucker
Tucker has had a terrible year, and still insists on spouting meaningless platitudes about how good the team could be if they were only healthy. On the other hand, his contract isn't actually all that bad -- especially if he's been playing hurt. And he's the only one of the veterans who seems to genuinely love playing in Toronto, so his refusal to waive seems somewhat reasonable.

6 - Andrew Raycroft
He deserves some blame for this somehow. Give me time, I'll figure something out.

7 - Pavel Kubina
The other NTCers were being selfish -- Kubina was just plain dumb. He could have hand-picked a deal to a contender, but instead he'll wind up going wherever Fletcher decides to banish him. Kubina is actually a better player than many give him credit for. I hope he enjoys proving it in Edmonton next year.

8 - Mats Sundin
I've been harsh on the captain this week, arguing that Sundin is selfish and mocking his NTC stance. There's little doubt that 14 years of service has earned him the right to make his own decision -- even if that decision turn out to be disastrous for the franchise, which it will. But once he made that call, it was a given that the rest of the veterans would fall in line. With retirement looking more and more likely, it's sad to think that our final memory of Mats will be of him torpedoing a desperately needed rebuilding plan for the sake of his own personal comfort zone.

9 - Bryan McCabe
The poster child and unofficial spokesman of the NTC 5. Has the worst contract of the bunch. Toyed with Leaf fans by pretending he'd accept a deal, then joked about it afterwards. Doesn't seem to understand how ridiculous he sounds when he says the Leafs are a good team. Probably wanted to leave, but couldn't get a signed permission note from his wife. Makes me so angry I write in incomplete sentences.

10 - John Ferguson Jr.
Apparently those wild street celebrations on January 21 were premature. Thanks to his weak-kneed willingness to hand out no-trade clauses to anyone who batted their eyes at him, Ferguson's utter incompetence has derailed this franchise so badly that it could take years to fix.

The only positive aspect to this whole debacle was watching Fergie squirm his way through TSN's deadline coverage, standing meekly by while everyone else piled on. I may not know much about the machinations of NHL front office work, but I know this much: if Mike Milbury is scoring points off of criticizing your performance, you were a monumentally terrible GM.

¹Note how I cleverly make this look like a regular feature, instead of something I made up today.

Fletcher's press conference

This is fascinating television. Cliff is clearly doing his "I'm incredibly pissed at the NTC 5, but I'm going to bite my tongue and hope you can all read between the lines" routine.

He's promised twice that next year's opening night roster will be significantly different from the current one. Buyouts are "absolutely" an option. Meanwhile, when asked about McCabe he says there was "no interest". None of this was delivered with a hint of a smile.

Now we can all speculate as to which player had agreed to a deal yesterday and then changed his mind. Kubina is the most likely suspect. I'm betting Fletcher trades him to Edmonton at 12:01 on June 15, just out of spite.

In other news, Cliff all but confirmed that a Sundin trade would have brought in more than what the Thrashers got for Hossa. That hurts. I wonder if the Anaheim deal was ever actually on the table. Part of me doesn't even want to know.

Some good news: He just referred to his successor as GM as "the ultimate man". Sweet, I didn't even know Wendel was in the running.

Ah well. I'm past the depression/anger stage and into acceptance. The team we all love is full of complacent losers, and we're probably stuck with them for years to come.

Deadline day: Quick early morning thoughts

• Pavel Kubina is getting bad advice if he refuses to waive. Let's assume the reports of his NTC being lifted in the off-season are true (and not just more confusion, a la Kaberle's no-trade clause). He can either accept a deal now, when he has some control over his destination and would almost certainly go to a contender. Or he can wait until the off-season and go wherever Fletcher wants to send him, with no input and no guarantee he won't wind up in an even worse situation than Toronto.
  
  
• Kyle Wellwood has requested a trade. If possible, he would also like a chocolate milkshake and a bag of funions.
  
  
• I sense I'm on the outside of the Leaf Nation consensus when it comes to the Sundin decision. Fair enough. But this article in the Star captured my feelings today.
  
  
• Am I seeing things, or was there a very odd reaction to Moore's goal last night? Or more specifically, a non-reaction. He scores a one-man highlight reel goal, peels into the corner, raises his arm and... nobody's there. The other players just go to the bench and leave him standing there by himself, looking around, before skating off. Maybe the Leaf players have rejected Moore -- after all, he hasn't been there since October, so Mats doesn't believe he's a real teammate.
  

More to come as the day goes on...

These are the days of Tomas Kaberle's NTC

Let's recap what we know about Tomas Kaberle's no-trade clause (NTC).

Nothing, apparently.

Well, that's not completely true. We've heard plenty about it over the years. Let's walk through the timeline:

- When he signed his deal, there was confusion over whether it included a NTC. Shortly after resigning, he was heavily rumored to be part of a package headed to Edmonton for Chris Pronger. Perhaps due to confusion caused by those rumors (his NTC wouldn't kick in until his old deal expired), several reports listed Kaberle as not having a no-trade clause.

- Except that... Kaberle did have an NTC. So over the past year, the articles started listing Kaberle as a member of the NTC brigade, just like Sundin, McCabe and Tucker.

- Except that... Over the weekend, a handful of reports began to mention that there was a crucial exemption to the clause, and that Kaberle could be traded during the summer following a non-playoff season. In other words, he was safe at the deadline but could be moved after this season. The obvious implication was that he may be more likely to waive his clause now if the right deal came along, since he'd lose all control in a few months.

- Except that... Today, Howard Berger is reporting that this exemption on Kaberle's no-trade clause doesn't kick in until the final year of the deal -- meaning he's safe through 2010.

My head hurts.

Hey, here's a question: How is it possible that nobody knows this stuff?

The problem isn't limited to Kaberle. Pavel Kubina's clause may not be a blanket no-trade -- it may only allow him to specify a limited number of teams he could be dealt to. Or maybe not. It depends which article you're reading on which day.

And here's the twist: I don't think this is a media problem. Those guys get kicked around plenty (including here) and it's usually deserved, but not this time. This is an NHL problem. The league needs to make sure that this sort of critical information is readily available and reported correctly, and they're not doing it.

Here's Mike Brophy writing on The Hockey News web site. Not only does he report the (apparently wrong) information about Kaberle's NTC voiding after the Leafs miss the playoffs this year, but he lists Kubina as being tradable to "pre-specified teams". OK. Which teams? How many? Specified by who? And when? Is there already a list in place?

Brophy doesn't say, presumably because he doesn't know. If a senior writer for The Hockey News can't find this information, who could?

And we haven't even touched on the mass confusion over salary cap numbers. More than one reporter has taken it on himself to crunch the numbers in an attempt to estimate how much cap space the Leafs have committed to next year. That's great, but why do they need to do this in the first place? Why isn't there a page on the NHL web site that lists everything?

Can you imagine an NFL reporter not knowing where the Dallas Cowboys stood with regards to the salary cap? He'd be laughed at. But in the NHL, everyone is left to make their best guess.

This is the kind of information that's important to serious hockey fans. Unfortunately, there don't seem to be any working at NHL headquarters.