Emergency Cap Court session: Does the rising cap change the verdict on these stars?

But the cap is going up.

For years, it’s been the go-to excuse for any questionable contract signed in the NHL. Aside from the years immediately following the pandemic, the NHL’s cap ceiling always goes up, at least a little bit. And that meant that any criticism of a contract would immediately be met by a condescending reminder that the cap would eventually go up. A rising cap was an optimistic fan’s – and an overspending GM’s – very best friend, even when it was obviously nonsense.

Except…

Well, now the cap is really going up. Like, way up, by an amount that’s enough to have us reconsidering what we thought we knew about how the league’s economics work. So today, I’m convening a special session of Cap Court, the feature where we put contracts on trial. We’re going to reach back into the last few editions of this column to find deals that got the dreaded “bad contract” verdict, and give them another look based on last week’s news.

I went back through the archives and found five contracts that have a solid case for appeal. Let’s see if any of those can reverse the original call.

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Does Johnny Gaudreau have a bad contract? Pierre-Luc Dubois? Nazem Kadri? Cap Court returns

As NHL GMs have spent the last few years saying to the salary cap: Please rise.

Those GMs are about to get their way, and so are we. It’s time for another round of Cap Court, the feature in which we put contracts on trial. The last time we did this, it was with a twist: We were looking for great contracts, not the usual bad ones. That was a nice dose of positivity, so it goes without saying that we’re headed back to the negatives this time around.

As always, we’re looking at contracts as they stand right now – we don’t care if they were good deals or made sense at some point earlier, just about what they have left and how they’re likely to turn out from now on. That can be tough to predict, of course. Back in 2022, it looked like recent extensions for Jonathan Huberdeau and J.T. Miller were in similar territory, and it’s fair to say that those two deals look very different today.

That’s a nice reminder that we shouldn’t be as confident and we might be tempted to be when it comes to some of these deals. Still, we’ll do the best we can to give five contracts a fair trial. Court is now in session.

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Weekend rankings: We have a trade to announce

We’ll get to the games in a bit, but this was one of those weekends where the wins and losses weren’t the big story. Instead, we had a trade to announce. And not just any trade, but a legitimate blockbuster that was also an old-fashioned hockey trade.

Sort of. We’ll get to that.

First, the details, just in case you somehow missed them:

#CBJ acquire:
Patrick Laine
Jack Roslovic#Jets acquire:
Pierre-Luc Dubois
3rd round pick

— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) January 23, 2021

It’s not quite a one-for-one, but with apologies to a good young player in Jack Roslovic and whoever gets drafted with that pick, it will probably be perceived that way, at least initially. And that’s where it gets a little bit tricky, because Laine had expressed a desire to move on from Winnipeg and Dubois had made it very clear that he was done in Columbus. Even Roslovic didn’t want to sign with the Jets. Is it really a hockey trade if the main pieces wanted out?

Maybe not, but that’s where the “old-fashioned” part comes in, because the NHL used to have trades like this all the time. Mark Messier went home on the eve of a season to force his exit from Edmonton. Doug Gilmour walked out on the Flames days before the moved him to Toronto. Pavel Bure sat out half a season to get out of Vancouver. Eric Lindros went even further to get out of Philadelphia.

One pattern you may notice in those trades: The team whose hand was forced rarely makes out well in the long run. That’s bad news for Columbus and good news for the Jets, who managed to take a Laine situation that seemed to be on shaky ground and turn it into a deal where they were working from a position of strength. It’s no sure thing that this turns into a steal for Winnipeg, because Laine is no Gary Leeman or Pavel Brendl, but two-way centers are hard to find and they just landed one with a chip on his shoulder.

As for Laine in Columbus, well, it will certainly be interesting to see how he fits in with John Tortorella. You have to be a certain type of guy to succeed in a Tortorella world, and first impressions are that Laine doesn’t exactly give off that vibe. But that’s probably too simplistic. Tortorella has coached plenty of stars who’d have success under him, including offensive wingers like Martin St. Louis, Marian Gaborik and Artemi Panarin. If Laine does his job, however that’s defined for him, he should be fine.

Which leads to the next question: What does his next contract look like? He’ll be an RFA this offseason, so there’s plenty of time and the Blue Jackets control his rights. But long-time readers will know where I’m going with this: The dreaded “shiny new toy” syndrome, in which a team makes a big trade for a pending free agent and then has to figure out what kind of contract to give him. It’s a tough spot for a team to be in, since you can’t exactly play hardball with a guy you just gave up major assets to acquire. And it almost never works out well. Jarmo Kekalainen will have his work cut out for him on this one.

But that’s for down the line. For now, we’ve got two young stars in their prime with new homes and something to prove, and two fan bases who’ll spend the next few years arguing over who got the better of the deal. That’s going to be all sorts of old-fashioned fun.

On to the weekend’s games, which included the Dubois-less Blue Jackets beating the Lightning and the Laine-less Jets taking yet another from the Senators before coughing up last night’s stunner against the Oilers. Yes, it’s still way too early for this, but if NHL GMs can do their jobs then we can too.

Road to the Cup

The five teams that with the best chances of becoming the first team in history to win a Stanley Cup in July.

One team I have no idea what to do with this week: Dallas. They didn’t make their season debut until Friday, and looked scary good in beating the Predators 7-0, a win that gave them the division’s best goals differential despite only playing one game. Last night’s win in the rematch wasn’t as impressive, but they still took the two points.

Last week, we talked about how hard it is to rank teams when everyone has only played two or three games. What do you do with a team that’s played twice while everyone else is four games ahead? I have no idea, which is why the Stars (and 2-0-0 Panthers) aren’t in the top five mix this week. We’ll see where things stand a week from now.

5. Boston Bruins (3-1-1, +3 true goals differential*) – It was feeling pretty dicey through three games, as the Bruins struggled to create anything offensively. That changed against the Flyers, and 11 goals and two wins later, the Bruins feel like contenders again. The Flyers, meanwhile, do not, which opens up a spot from last week’s list.

4. Washington Capitals (3-0-3, +2) – We’ll give that extra spot to the Caps, who are holding down first in the East and have points in every game, including yesterday’s loss to the Sabres. The big story this week was the whole COVID mess that cost them four key players, but that’s a temporary situation that shouldn’t have a long-term impact. It’s still tempting to slip the Islanders into this slot, and maybe we would have if they’d handled the Devils last night. Instead we’ll wait and see how this week goes, as the shorthanded Caps face the Isles twice

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Ten scary starts to the NHL season

It’s Halloween, which means most of us will want to shut off the lights tonight and settle in with a scary movie or two. There’s just something about Oct. 31 that makes you want to shudder in fear while waiting for some hapless character to get hacked to bits.

Then again, you could save yourself some time and skip the movie. If you want a good scare at this time of year, all you need to do is check out the NHL stats page, where some players are off to truly frightening starts.

So today, let’s take a look at 10 of the scariest starts we’re seeing around the league, and whether there’s any hope of ending of their stories ending happily.

Frederik Andersen, Maple Leafs

Through 11 starts, he’s sporting some ugly numbers, including an .896 save percentage and 3.46 goals against. And it’s not like those stats are being thrown off by one or two bad performances. If anything, it’s the opposite, as Andersen has had only five games with a save percentage over .870. And lately, Leafs fans are getting used to seeing him beaten clean on high shots, often barely moving as the puck blows by him.

For a quasi-Cup contender that doesn’t seem to have much confidence in its backups, that’s worrying. Last night’s strong effort in San Jose was a good sign, but there hasn’t been much consistency yet on the year.

If the season were a horror movie, he’d be: The big guy with the goalie mask who makes you feel really nervous every time he’s on the screen.

Odds of a happy ending: We’ve been down this road before with Andersen, who started slowly last year, too. He eventually got back on track, and was one of the league’s better goalies from November on. That was a good reminder that goaltending is voodoo, and that everyone has a bad stretch or two over the course of a season. There’s a good chance that’s the case here, too.

And as rough as Andersen’s start has been, he still has six wins, so it’s not like he’s sinking his team. Still, Leaf fans wouldn’t mind seeing him string together a few solid starts to ease the tension.

Kris Letang, Penguins

After missing last year’s entire post-season run due to a neck injury that required surgery, Letang’s return to the Penguins’ lineup was supposed to provide a big boost to a team that had lost several depth pieces. He’s put up eight points through 13 games, which isn’t bad. But he’s also a -14 on the year, ranking him dead last in the league. We all know that +/- is a flawed stat that has as much to do with circumstance as actual performance. But an extreme number can still tell you something, and in Letang’s case it’s not anything good.

If the season were a horror movie, he’d be: The good guy who seems to have done something to accidentally trigger an ancient curse.

Odds of a happy ending: In addition to missing a Stanley Cup run due to last year’s neck injury, Letang has also had to battle through multiple concussions, groin problems, various upper- and lower-body injuries, and even a stroke. Now he’s getting pummelled by a stat that’s largely luck-based. Chances are his numbers even out over time, and here’s hoping he can stay healthy this year. But just in case, maybe don’t let him pick your lotto numbers.

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Draft weekend winners and losers

The NHL's annual entry draft is somewhat unique in the world of pro sports. Instead of various teams scattered across the continent sending in picks for a commissioner to read, everyone gathers in one building, with all 30 teams squished together at massive tables on an arena floor to make the picks themselves. It's a system that has its plusses (more trades, at least in theory) and minuses (seriously, guys, shut up with the preamble and just make the pick), but it's rarely boring, and this weekend was no exception.

The biggest star of the opening round was, as expected, top prospect Auston Matthews. He'd been the presumptive top pick all season long, and despite a small measure of intrigue thanks to a late push by Finnish winger Patrik Laine, the top of the draft played out as expected, with Matthews going to the Toronto Maple Leafs and their vaguely insane fan base. The second pick also followed the script, with Laine going to the Jets. That's when things started to go off the rails a bit, and we'll get to that down below.

In the end, the draft may be remembered as much for what didn't happen—remember when P.K. Subban was getting traded?—as for what did. And it may be overshadowed quickly, as we count down the days to Friday's opening of the free agency signing period. More than a few teams headed into the weekend looking to free up cap space for this year's auction; not all succeeded, at least not yet, which could set the stage for an interesting next few days.

One way or another, the league is going to look a lot different a week from today than it does right now. But for today, let's take a look back at the winners, losers and surprises from draft weekend.

Top Five

Celebrating those who've had the best week.

5. Tyson Jost's grandpa—Jost went tenth overall to the Avalanche. It was a nice moment, given the often-difficult path he and his family had followed to get here. Then his grandfather reacted like this, and suddenly everyone's allergies were acting up:

Tyson Jost

— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) June 25, 2016

4. 'Merica—Matthews became the seventh American to be taken first overall, joining the likes of Patrick Kane and Mike Modano (and also Rick DiPietro and Brian Lawton, but let's keep it positive). Two more Americans went in the top seven, and by the end of the round a total of 12 had been picked, equaling the number of Canadians taken and establishing a new US record. Perhaps even more encouraging, the picks weren't limited to the country's usual hockey hot spots, with picks used on players from Arizona and (especially) Missouri.

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