On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Every veteran defenseman retires
- We remember how cool P.K. Subban and Zdeno Chara were
- Nathan MacKinnon gets a new contract
- Blake Wheeler is out as Jets captain
- The Oilers have a type
- Ryan quizzes me on all the new coaches
- Survivor talk and lots more...
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The offseason is over. Let’s get weird.
Or more specifically, let’s remember all the various ways that NHL teams got weird over the last few months. It’s time to fire up the Bizarro-meter, a feature I debuted back in 2013 in an attempt to understand whatever it was the Maple Leafs thought they were doing, and have been using since 2014 to round up every team in the league. It’s a high-tech system which evaluates each team’s offseason oddity index by, uh, giving it a score out of ten. Look, we never said this was complicated.
Before we get started, an important annual reminder: “bizarre” doesn’t necessarily mean “bad.” In last season’s list, some of the highest rankings went to the Capitals and Golden Knights, who ended up meeting in the final, as well as to the Avalanche, who shocked everyone by going from dead last to the playoffs. Sometimes, a little bit of chaos can work out well for a team. And maybe more importantly, sometimes a conservative, uninspired, paint-by-numbers offseason is the absolute last thing a team needs.
So with that caveat in mind, let’s dig in. As always, a team’s offseason begins the moment its season ends and stretches until last weekend. We’ll start today with the 15 Western Conference teams; we’ll be back to finish up with the Eastern Conference Tuesday.
The offseason so far: They locked down Ryan Ellis on a long-term deal, and got future starter Juuse Saros signed at a very manageable number. Mike Fisher retired again, Dan Hamhuis will slot in for Alexei Emelin, and Auston Watson will miss a third of the season pending an appeal of his suspension for domestic assault. But otherwise, last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners will bring back mostly the same roster.
But their strangest story was: Signing Zac Rinaldo always raises a few eyebrows, even when it’s a two-way deal. But the strangest moment of their offseason probably came when Ryan Johansen and Ryan Kesler appeared to arrange a street fight over Twitter.
Bizarro-meter ranking: 2.2/10. At this point, not being a jerk on Twitter is basically a terms of service violation, so even the Kesler/Johansen spat doesn’t earn many points. We’re not used to seeing a whole offseason go by without a major trade or two from David Poile, but for now it probably makes sense to stay the course with a top Cup contender.
The offseason so far: It started early, with the firing of GM Chuck Fletcher in April. But other than that, it’s been strangely quiet; the biggest headlines were the signing of Matt Dumba to a $30-million extension and a buyout for Tyler Ennis.
But their strangest story was: Not making many moves. The Wild have been spinning their wheels for years now, always good enough to make the playoffs but never quite good enough to feel like a real contender. At some point, they’re going to need to move forward or take a step back. For now, they seem content to plod ahead with the status quo.
Bizarro-meter ranking: 3.7/10. New GM Paul Fenton appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach. Sometimes that works out well. Sometimes it just means another lost season.
The offseason so far: It’s been largely a case of maintaining the status quo, which makes sense given the season they’re coming off. The only major departure was deadline rental Paul Stastny, and they didn’t add anything major. Instead, the big headlines were around extension for existing players, including an intriguingly long one for Connor Hellebuyck, a disappointingly short one for Jacob Trouba, and an impressively cheap one for Josh Morrissey.
But their strangest story was: Signing captain Blake Wheeler to an extension that will carry an $8.25 million cap hit until he’s 37. That deal was mostly well-received in Winnipeg, although other reviews haven’t been as kind.
Bizarro-meter ranking: 4.2/10. The Wheeler deal may well turn out to be a mistake. But bizarre? Not really. Wheeler is enormously popular in Winnipeg, is coming off a career year, and is the team’s captain. NHL teams almost never play hardball with those sort of guys, even if there’s some evidence that they should.
Welcome to the third-round preview. In round one, our predictions went an impressive seven-for-eight. In round two, uh, we reflected on the success of round one. Now we're down to four teams. Who'll advance to the Stanley Cup Final? We have no idea, but we're willing to pretend that we do.
In this corner: The Washington Capitals (49-36-7, 105 points, +18 true goals differential), who knocked off the defending champion Penguins to finally advance to the conference finals for the first time in the Alexander Ovechkin era.
The history books: This isn't quite uncharted territory for the Capitals, who made (and lost in) the 1998 final. But it's their first trip to the conference final in 20 years since, not to mention the first for any big four Washington team in that time span.
Injury report: Nicklas Backstrom missed the last game of the Pittsburgh series with some sort of hand injury, and we don't know when he'll be able to return. Andre Burakovsky is day to day.
The big question: Now what? The Capitals have been waiting to beat the Penguins and break through to the conference final for so long that you wonder what comes next. Maybe with the monkey off their back, they're just happy to be here and can't offer much resistance against an opponent that, on paper, should be the better team. But maybe not. Maybe with the dragon slain and the pressure finally off, they play the sort of playoff hockey they've always been capable of but never seemed able to summon.
One player to watch: Tom Wilson. You may as well keep an eye on him. We know the referees and the Department of Player Safety will be. All the Lightning players will, too, if they're smart. Wilson's a throwback to an earlier era, a player who still hits to hurt. Sometimes, he does it cleanly. Others, he throws those grey area hits that we all have to debate for days at a time. It caught up to him in round two, when he earned a three-game suspension for a high hit. He's eligible to return to start this series, and no doubt he'll claim that he won't change his style. But you have to figure he'll be second-guessing some opportunities to go for the big hit, if only to make sure he doesn't wind up back in the press box. The question is whether that helps or hurts his overall game.
Key number: 30.9% – The Capitals powerplay success rate through two rounds, good for second among all playoff teams. The only team higher: The Bruins, largely on the strength of going 5-for-12 against Tampa last round. Penalty killing has been one of the only weaknesses in the Lightning's game so far this postseason, so the Capitals will need to take advantage of any opportunities they can earn.
>> Read the full post at Vice Sports
Two weeks to go. That’s it. Two weeks from today, the regular season will be over and we’ll be on to the playoffs. We’ll be breaking down matchups without any of those “if the playoffs started today” caveats. We’ll know what the lottery odds look like. Awards voters will be hard at work on their now-public ballots. The way things are shaping up, we’ll probably also be in the middle of a few days’ worth of coach and GM firings. We’ll have a couple of days without any games, but there will be plenty to talk about, and a lot more clarity than we have right now.
But first we have to get there, and a lot can change in two weeks. So today, let’s take a moment to regroup and figure out where we’re at after the weekend’s action.
For starters, we can narrow down the playoff picture. The Flames are done. The Stars almost certainly are, too, after a pair of brutal weekend losses that saw them blow a third-period lead against the Bruins on Friday and then cough up a must-win against the Canucks last night. They’ve lost eight straight and are five points back, and the group ahead of them all have a game in hand. Unless Ben Bishop makes a miraculous recovery, the Stars aren’t going to be able to make up that ground.
That means it’s down to the Kings, Ducks, Avalanche and Blues in the West, with three spots up for grabs. The Blues are the surprise of that group, given how they’d all but surrendered at the deadline, but weekend wins over the Canucks and Blue Jackets made it five straight for them, so here we are.
One last thing we know about the Western Conference: Seven games of Predators vs. Jets needs to happen. Make it so, NHL. Rig it if you need to. After last night’s Jets win in a 5–4 barnburner, anything else will feel like a letdown. Just no shootouts this time, OK?
Over in the East, the Panthers are the only outsider with a chance. They’re chasing the Devils and (maybe) the Flyers and Blue Jackets, with everyone else home and cooled. Both division titles remain up for grabs, as is the possibility of the Leafs finishing with the conference’s third-best record, starting the playoffs on the road, and forcing us into a two-week national dialogue about the playoff format.
Filed under “still too close to call,” we’ve got the scoring race (although barely), the Rocket Richard, and the battle for both the Presidents’ Trophy and dead last overall.
That’s a lot left to figure out, and not much time to do it. Two weeks may not be much, but right now it’s all we’ve got. On to the power rankings…
The five teams that look like they’re headed towards Stanley Cup–favourite status.
5. Vegas Golden Knights (47-21-7, +46 true goals differential*): Saturday’s OT loss to the Avalanche may have been the game of the weekend, at least among those that didn’t involve the Predators and Jets. We get a rematch tonight. First-round playoff preview? Yes, please.
4. Winnipeg Jets (45-19-10, +53): Last night’s win clinches their playoff spot. In other news, Blake Wheeler is going to try really hard not to fight any more teammates in practice.
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The Athletic Hockey Show runs four days a week during the season, and will feature me with Other Sean Gentille on Wednesdays.
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