Friday, March 29, 2019

Grab Bag: Introducing the Devan Dubnyk Rule, a word about shutout jinxes and a decade of Canucks

In the Friday Grab Bag:
- Devan Dubnyk did something crazy this week, and I think we should make a new rule about it
- A word about people who think you can jinx a shutout by talking about it
- An obscure player whose first two years with the Leafs rank with Auston Matthews and Wendel Clark
- The week's three comedy stars
- And a YouTube look back at an entire decade of Vancouver Canucks' history

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Puck Soup: Benefit of the Doughty

In this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Drew Doughty rips into Matthew Tkachuk and Brent Burns
- Ilya Kovalchuk rips into his own coach
- Roberto Luongo nears the end, and what that could mean
- Thoughts on fighting, concussions, and my piece from earlier this week
- Ryan finds out about that St. Louis bagels thing and has some feelings about it
- An interview with Matt Porter of the Boston Globe
- Greg and I face off in an NCAA hockey quiz
- And lots more...

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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Ranking the ten best first-round matchups we might realistically see

We’re​ down to less​ than​ two​ weeks​ left​ in​ the regular​ season, and for​ a handful of teams​ still​ jockeying for wild-card​​ positions, there’s plenty left to play for. But for most fans, our teams are either locked into a playoff spot or already eliminated. There’s still seeding and home ice to play for, sure, but for the most part, we know whether our team is in or out.

And that means it’s time to start looking ahead to the single best time to be a hockey fan: The first round of the playoffs. It’s the best, just two straight weeks of non-stop hockey between teams that either already hate each other or are about to.

Let’s start the hype. But we have to do it responsibly. After all, there’s no point getting all worked up over a matchup that’s almost definitely not going to happen. I’d love to see the Jets face the Predators or Leafs vs. Habs as much as the next guy, but it would take a near-miracle to make those happen in the first round. We need to figure out which pairings actually have a shot at happening.

Luckily, our pal Dom Luszczyszyn has done that work for us. His projections page now includes a section for most likely playoff matchups. Today, let’s pick an arbitrary cutoff – let’s say 30 percent based on the March 26 update – and count down the ten best first-round matchups that we have a realistic shot at seeing. We’re looking for the total package: good teams that are legitimate contenders, an established rivalry, as much star power as possible and some interesting storylines.

With that in mind, here are the ten best matchups that look like they might actually happen.

10. Avalanche vs. Flames (47 percent likelihood)

Contender status: Not bad on the Flames side. The Avalanche are a major longshot.

Rivalry factor: Low. They’re not in the same division and they’ve never met in the playoffs. Aside from the whole Ian Cole/Sam Bennett incident back in November, there hasn’t been all that much bad blood between the two teams that didn’t involve poorly thought-out offers sheets.

Potential storylines: Only one of these teams made the playoffs last year and it was the Avalanche. That makes it kind of tough to call this some sort of classic underdog battle, even though it would probably feature a one-seed against a second wildcard. Instead, let’s focus on all the offensive firepower and questionable goaltending and hope we’d get some shootouts. (No, not those, the good kind.)

Random clip to get you fired up: The Flames score five straight in the third period to roar back to win that November game.

Bottom line: Calgary is one of those teams that’s going to make the playoffs but doesn’t yet have a clear opponent emerging, although the Avalanche are getting close. Personally, I’d probably rather see them face the Coyotes, but they don’t meet our 30 percent threshold. Still, the Avs at least bring some star power and it’s not like the Flames and their shaky goaltending are exactly looking upset-proof.

9. Hurricanes vs. Capitals (35 percent)

Contender status: The Caps are the defending champs. The Hurricanes haven’t made the playoffs in nine years, although that won’t stop all the analytics types from picking them to win this series anyway.

Rivalry factor: Who has fond memories of the Southeast Division? (Scans room.) Right, nobody. Still, they’ve at least been division rivals for two decades, even though they’ve never met in the playoffs.

Potential storylines: Celebrations. Last year, the Capitals took post-Cup hijinks to a new level. This year, it’s the Hurricanes and their Storm Surge. Does that prove that having a bit of fun is OK? Or are the Capitals still the counter-example, because they waited until they’d actually won something to get goofy? Get ready to hear all about it, whether you want to or not.

Once we get that out of the way, this sets up nicely for the well-worn storyline of the young up-and-comers running into the grizzled veterans who aren’t ready to give up the throne quite yet. Having a respected veteran like Justin Williams face his old team adds a bit of intrigue.

Random clip to get you fired up: OK, “fired up” may be overselling it a bit, but how about Alexander Ovechkin scoring a hat trick in a 6-5 win?

Bottom line: There’s no real history here to speak of. But the present features two good teams who could make for an intriguing matchup. We could do worse.

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Monday, March 25, 2019

I cheered as a generation of NHL players gave each other concussions. What do I owe them now?

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I’m​ going to warn​ you​ up​ front​ that​ this​ post is​ going to be​ heavy on the​ questions.​ It’s going to​​ be a lot of smaller questions, all piling up toward one bigger question. And the answer is going to be unsatisfying, because the answer is going to be: I don’t know.

Maybe I should, because I’ve been struggling with this for years. Maybe you have too. And if so, I wish I could wrap it up for you with a nice easy answer we could all agree on. That’s where I wanted this to end. I didn’t get there.

But I still think there’s value in the questions because for too long most of us didn’t ask them at all. Or at least, we didn’t ask them out loud, even as they might have been lingering somewhere in the background.

I have questions about concussions, the players who are still feeling their effects, and the shared experience of being a hockey fan and what that should mean. I find myself asking those questions a lot these days. But to get to right now, first I need to go back almost three decades.


It’s 1989, and I just finished opening up my Christmas presents. I don’t remember exactly what I got that year, but I’m sure there was a nice pile of clothes, books and computer games. I do know which gift I want to turn to first: a VHS copy of “Don Cherry’s Rock’em Sock’em Hockey.” I’ve been getting hockey tapes for years now, but this one is different. It’s the first in the series, before we even knew there would be a series, and it isn’t just the usual bloopers and silly sketches. This is Grapes. This is going to be good.

And it is good. All the hockey fans in the house quickly gather around the TV to watch the hits and goals and other highlights. Then comes a segment of big hits, after which Cherry thanks us for watching and gives a big thumbs up as the screen fades to black. There are probably a few puzzled looks for a second or two, but then Cherry is back and he chuckles at the fake out. “Hey you, folks, I know what you’re thinking out there. What’s a Don Cherry video without the odd tussle?”

But before we get to that, we arrive at what Cherry would eventually start calling “tea time.” That’s where he gives all the “sweethearts” out there who don’t like fighting a chance to turn off the TV. At my house, nobody even thinks of turning it off.

First up is a scrum involving a clearly uninterested Wayne Gretzky that’s played up for laughs, complete with rag-timey piano music. Then comes “two guys that aren’t fooling”: Bob Probert and Craig Coxe. The fight is from early in the 1987-88 season, more than two years before this time, but in the days before YouTube or 24-hour sports highlights, most fans have never seen the whole thing start-to-finish.

Coxe and Probert go toe-to-toe for nearly a full minute, and it’s all bombs. Cherry says there are 71 punches thrown; it seems like more. A lot of them don’t land. A lot of them do. “Way to go, Craig, and way to go, Bobby,” Cherry exclaims when it’s over. I’m sure I was nodding along.

Next up is another super heavyweight bout, this one featuring John Kordic and Jay Miller. Then another non-fight that’s played for laughs, and the video ends. I can remember feeling vaguely disappointed. Only two real fights? I thought there’d be more. Ah well, let’s rewind and watch Coxe and Probert again.

That scene became an annual tradition at my house. Christmas day was about stockings, family and a nice turkey dinner. But it was also the day to tear open the latest “Rock’em Sock’em” and gather around the TV to watch Grapes walk us through another season of goals, saves, crushing hits and, at the end, the odd tussle. I’m willing to bet there were plenty of families across Canada that did the same.

Bob Probert died in 2010. The cause was heart failure, but he donated his brain to researchers who found evidence of chronic traumatic encephalopathy, the degenerative brain disease that’s been linked to blows to the head. His wife described him as experiencing memory loss and uncharacteristic behavior in his final years in an article in the New York Times. Click that article today, and you’ll be greeted by a photo of Probert in mid-fight, blood pouring out of his forehead, while a young fan beams just a few feet away.

John Kordic died in 1992 after a drug-fueled altercation with eight police officers in a motel room; the official cause of death was listed as heart and lung failure. He’d abused steroids during his career and had long battled drugs and alcohol. He’d attributed his struggles in part to his father, who never approved of his role as an enforcer because he wanted his son to be a real player. Sports Illustrated wrote about Kordic’s passing in the weeks after it happened. They ran the article under the headline “Death of a Goon”.

Should we have turned it off?

Even then, even as a kid, I can remember feeling just the slightest twinge of guilt over watching players absorb haymakers. Or maybe I didn’t, and I’m just wishing that part into existence. But if it was there, it was easy enough to extinguish. This was hockey, after all. These guys knew what they signed up for. As Coxe and Probert are pummeling each other, Cherry bellows what we’re all thinking: “Two tough guys going at it. They want to go, let ’em go!”

And then, the fight fans’ mantra: “They’re not hurting anybody but themselves.”

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Weekend power rankings: Thinning the wild card herd and the Sabres make history

With​ less than two​ weeks​ to​ go​ in​ the​ regular season,​ let’s skip the​ gimmicks and get​ straight​ to figuring out​​ where we’re at after a busy weekend on the wild card bubble.

First things first: While we did our best this week to spread some optimism among the eight teams that were chasing playoff spots, we can safely narrow down that list now. The Flyers are done, thanks to a pair of weekend losses. So are the Panthers, who lost in regulation to the Bruins. And the Oilers and Canucks are also done. None of those teams are mathematically eliminated, but they’re close enough that they’d need a miracle. Chicago’s close to that point too; we’ll get to them in a bit more detail down below.

That leaves us with a more manageable group still in the wild card race. In the East, it’s down to the Blue Jackets, Canadiens and Hurricanes, with two spots up for grabs. The Habs and Canes hold them right now, and they met last night in one of those games that Columbus fans just knew was going to go to overtime and summon the loser point fairy. It did, with the Hurricanes taking the two points on Andrei Svechnikov’s winner.

That left the Blue Jackets facing a must-win in Vancouver and they got the job done with a 5-0 win. That capped off a week-long road trip which saw them lose three straight and their grip on a wild card spot, and after going all-in at the trade deadline, Columbus is dangerously close to falling out of the race. The good news is that they host the Habs on Thursday, in what will be the biggest game of the year and maybe even of the Tortorella/Kekalainen era – not to mention the one that determines whether it continues.

Out west, the feel-good Coyotes are flatlining, losing five straight to cough up their hold on a wild card spot and fall two points back. The only good news is that they haven’t lost as much ground during that streak as you might think; the Stars have lost four of five while the Wild have lost six of eight. Only the Avalanche are hot, winning four straight before having their streak snapped in OT by the Hawks last night.

Where does that leave us? In the East, the Blue Jackets still control their own destiny, although a loss to the Canadiens this week would just about spell the end. As for the Habs and Hurricanes, remember that seeding matters here, a lot – the first wild card spot earns a matchup with the Metro winner while the second spot gets the Lightning. That could be the difference between having a real shot at winning a round and just being happy to be there.

In the West, the Coyotes still hold most of the card thanks to a schedule that serves up the Hawks, Avalanche and Wild this week. Meanwhile, the Stars head out on a four-game Western Canadian road trip that starts tonight in Winnipeg, so they’ve got their work cut out for them.

By this time next week, both races could be settled. Or both could be even tighter. Or one of those teams I just said was dead and buried could be back in the hunt, and gosh, if that happens I sure some of their fans will drop by to remind me.

For now, let’s get to this week’s rankings, where we had more movement than usual in the top five and something very weird in the bottom five …

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed towards a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

Before we get to the top five, I thought last night’s fishing-themed Storm Surge was just OK. Saturday’s version was fun, though:

5. Vegas Golden Knights (42-27-6, +27 true goals differential*) – It might seem a little weird to hand a top-five spot to a team that probably won’t even have home ice in the first round. Maybe it is. But the Knights have been rolling since the trade deadline, going 10-1-1 since Mark Stone arrived and scoring five or more goals in five of those games. That includes this week’s impressive 7-3 win over a Sharks team they’ll probably face in round one.

Put simply, at this point I’d pick the Knights to beat the Sharks in a seven-game series, even one that started in San Jose. They have better goaltending, the offense is humming and their defensive game is good enough that they can pitch a 20-shot shutout at the Jets with their backup goalie. They’re not perfect – they lost to the Red Wings on Saturday – but I can’t think of five teams whose odds I like better right now, so they’re in.

4. Winnipeg Jets (45-26-4, +35) – Saturday’s 5-0 win over the Predators was a statement game, one that left even Roman Josi saying things like “they’re just better than us.” More importantly, it left the Jets in great shape to earn the top seed in the division, as they hold a four-point lead, a game in hand and the ROW tie-breaker. That means they should avoid an occasionally scary Blues team that just beat the Lightning and instead start the playoffs against a wild card opponent they’ll be heavy favorites against.

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