We are not smart, and other midseason lessons from the prediction contest

Every year, right before opening night, I run a prediction contest for the upcoming NHL season. And two things always end up being true: The questions seems very easy at the time, and everyone does terrible.

That “everyone” includes me, by the way – I’m not any better at this than all of you are. The lesson is that none of us know anything. Or maybe it’s that the NHL product is more unpredictable than any of us give it credit for, throwing us constant twists and turns and unexpected swerves to keep us guessing all year long. And also, none of us know anything.

Today, we’re going to do the annual midseason check-in and see how we’re all doing. Spoiler: Not great!

If you’d like a refresher, you can find the original 2023-24 contest post here, along with the roughly 2,000 entries in the comment section. A summary of the consensus, in which nobody understood the Bruins, followed here. But that was all months ago, and a lot has happened since, so let’s see where we’re at.

This year’s contest featured 10 standard questions, plus the dreaded all-or-nothing bonus. If you like feeling smart, this is your last chance to look away.

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NHL weekend rankings: A top 5 shakeup and some great potential playoff matchups

We’re into the second week of January, and if the playoffs started today, that would be way too early.

After all, there’s still half a season left to go. But on the other hand, well, there’s still half a season left to go. We need something to look forward to beyond eight weeks of trade deadline speculation. And since the NHL loves to tell us that success in the playoffs is all that matters, they can hardly blame us for wanting to fast-forward ahead to the good stuff.

So let’s do that, with five of the best quasi-realistic playoff matchups that could be on the horizon.

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The five teams shaping up to have the most intriguing deadline dilemmas

We’re past the holiday freeze and Winter Classic, and most teams are just about to hit the halfway mark. If you’re an NHL fan, you know what team means: Get ready for eight weeks of trade deadline speculation.

For some teams, that’s a good thing – the deadline is something to look forward to, because it means an influx of new talent on the way to save the season and/or firmly establish a contender as a Cup favorite. Those are the buyers. For other teams, the feelings may be mixed, as it becomes obvious that the deadline will be about players leaving and a view of the future. Necessary, maybe even exciting in its own way, but also an admission that the season is already lost. Those are the sellers.

But what about the teams that are somewhere in between? Right now, they may be the most interesting, because the how the next few weeks play out could determine not just their fate, but how the entire market could shift based on who is or isn’t available. So today, I’m going to look at the five teams who have the most interesting calls to make over the next month or two, and where I think they may end up.

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Which of the league's worst teams could recreate the Blues' worst-to-first miracle?

Happy anniversary, Blues fans.

Five years ago today, your team woke up in the NHL basement. Not near the basement, or closer to it than you might have hoped – you were there, all alone, dead last in the entire NHL in total points on the morning of January 3, 2019.

We all know what happened next. The Blues turned it all around, going on an unprecedented second-half run and then winning the franchise’s first and only Stanley Cup.

Here’s the question I pitched to my editors: Can any of the teams that are in the mix for last place right now pull off the same miracle?

And here’s the answer: No. What the Blues did in 2019 was a cautionary warning from the hockey gods, meant to remind us of how random this sport can be, and will never come close to being repeated.

Cool, good post. See you all in a few days.

(Editor’s note: Uh, when we greenlit this idea we kind of assumed you’d be doing more than 150 words on it.)

Huh. Weird. OK, in that case let’s see if we can dig a little deeper. Let’s look at the league’s eight worst teams, the ones that went into last night's action below .500, and see if any of them have what it takes to serve up a repeat of the 2019 Blues. We’ll judge them based on five criteria that, in hindsight, could have tipped us off to what that Blues team was really capable of.

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NHL weekend rankings: Five offseason moves that haven't worked (yet)

Happy new year. And happy holidays. Here’s hoping you got all the gifts you wanted. And if not, here’s hoping you at least kept the receipts, so that you can send the junk back where it came from.

That’s a luxury that NHL teams don’t have. If they go shopping in the summer, they’re stuck with whatever they land, even if it doesn’t pay off. So today, let’s take a look at five offseason acquisitions that haven’t worked out so far, and the teams may be wishing they had access to a return policy.

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