10 Random Predictions: How am I doing?

We're officially two months and one-third of the way into the 2008-09 season. Those two milestones, combined with my inability to think of anything interesting to write about this week, seem like an excellent opportunity to look back on some pre-season predictions.

So let's travel back to my 10 Random Leafs predictions, as posted on Pension Plan Puppets. These were posted on October 8, one day before the Leafs opened their regular season.

Do I actually know what I'm talking about when looking ahead to the future instead of back to 1993? Let's see how I did.

Ryan Hollweg will end a 17-year streak of Leaf fans loving their enforcers

For the first time since Kevin Maguire in 1991, the Leafs' only enforcer will be a designated punching bag who'll be ready and willing but not especially able. It won't take long for Leaf fans to get tired of his nightly Kimbo Slice impression.

The verdict (so far): This one was almost too easy. Hollweg already had six losing fights and one suspension under his belt from the pre-season, so predicting that he'd be useless wasn't difficult. And while he's managed to keep his nose unfractured clean lately, that won't be enough to win over Leaf Nation.

So yes, I got this one right... but so did everyone else who was paying attention. Also, I'm deeply disappointed that "Kimbo Hollweg" never caught on.

Jeff Finger will be a media favorite by November

The anti-Finger backlash is probably the most predictable element of the new season. But the flip side is that it won't take long for folks to realize that while he's not worth $3.5M, he's also not terrible. And that will lead to an emerging storyline of "Jeff Finger, so over-rated he's under-rated!"

The verdict (so far): OK, so I said November and it's happening in December instead. Factor in the time Finger has missed due to injury, and we're right on schedule.

That said, the Finger fan backlash was never really as bad as I expected. Maybe missing the first few games will turn out to be a blessing.

We're going to hear about Bryan McCabe, Darcy Tucker and especially Kyle Wellwood all year long

The same media that dogged them and worked to drive them out of town will breathlessly report on every goal these guys score all year long.

The verdict (so far): Tucker and McCabe haven't done much. Wellwood was hot early and we was saw the predictable "Leafs let one get away" stories, especially around the time of the Canucks game. But even those died down once Fatty McCrunchandmunch cooled off slightly.

Bryan McCabe will waive his no-trade clause to go to allow the Panthers to deal him to a contender at the deadline

Admit it, you hadn't thought of it but you're already nodding your head, aren't you?

The verdict (so far): Too soon to tell, of course, but this one is looking good. With the Panthers struggling to stay at .500 and rumors of an imminent Bowmeester trade, the Panthers should be selling at the deadline. And now that McCabe BFF (and main reason for agreeing to go to Florida in the first place) Wade Belak has been dispatched, McCabe will likely agree to move.

Damien Cox will find a way to turn that into a knock against Cliff Fletcher, by the way.

Mats Sundin's return to the ACC will be a letdown

Yes, he's coming back. And when he finally gets around to cherry-picking a front-runner to join some time after Christmas, the hockey world will circle the date of his return to Toronto as a visitor.

The verdict (so far): It looks like I may be off by two weeks on the timing, but Mats is apparently ready to cherry-pick away. I stand by my prediction that the ACC crowd won't know what to do when he returns as a visitor.

Two, and only two, of Jiri Tlusty, Nikolai Kulemin, Alex Steen, Jonas Frogren and Anton Stralman will take their game to the next level

And no, I don't know which two. But the truth is, if two guys from the list above can elevate their games to breakout status then that's pretty good.

The verdict (so far): Of the guys listed, only Kulemin has been a pleasant surprise. Steen is gone, Tlusty was a bust, Stralman has been iffy and Frogren was just OK when healthy.

On the other hand, I somehow managed to leave Grabovski off my list of promising young players. If I hadn't had that brain cramp, I'd be looking good on this one.

Carlo Colaiacovo will be one of the best stories of the season

(The best thing about this prediction: in the 90% likelihood that he does get hurt, I can shrug this prediction off as not being technically proven wrong.)

The verdict (so far): He was hurt, and benched, and then traded, so I can shrug this prediction off as not being technically proven wrong.

Jason Blake will be good this year

I know, I know. I've been as hard on Blake as anyone. But this year, Blake looks sharp. Here's betting that he puts together a decent year -- let's say 25 goals.

The verdict (so far): My god, I am a stupid, stupid man. Why does anyone even read this blog? More importantly, with so few functioning brain cells, how do I manage to feed myself?

Vesa Toskala will be dealt at the deadline

... deep down we all know Toskala is somewhat over-rated (if he's really a top ten goalie how come you can think of 15 guys better than him?)

The verdict (so far): Sadly, this one looks good. A standout season by Toskala was the one and only way the Leafs could make a playoff run this year, and he hasn't come close to delivering.

Two months ago, you rarely heard Toskala mentioned as trade bait. Now, everyone assumes he's as good as gone... if the Leafs can find a taker.

Wendel Clark Night will be the highlight of the season

It will also result in approximately 100 posts on Down Goes Brown in the weeks leading up to the big night.

The verdict (so far): Wow, I nailed that one.


The bottom line: I nailed a few easy ones, was reasonably accurate on few of the reaches, and still expect to be proven right on the McCabe trade prediction which I didn't see anyone else make. On the other hand, Colaiacovo let me down and the Blake prediction was just awful.

Overall, I give myself a B-.

Burke's first task: Find an enforcer

OK, enough is enough. The Leafs need an enforcer, or somebody's going to get hurt out there.

Another game, another two huge hits on unsuspecting Leafs. There's no doubt that the Leafs lead the league in being on receiving end of highlight reel hits.

Last year I called the Leafs the softest team in the NHL. The additions of Jamal Mayers and Ryan Hollweg was supposed to fix that, but haven't. Mayers did a nice job tonight against Garnet Exelby, but he's no heavyweight. Hollweg is just awful.

Let's be clear: the Leafs aren't soft the way last year's team was. This year's squad plays a tougher style, doesn't shy away from physical play, and has shown admirably eagerness to stick up for one another.

And that's the problem. They're almost too fearless. They play with guts, and those guts are going to wind up smeared across the ice pretty soon.

So far we've seen Matt Stajan, Jason Blake, and Mikhail Grabovski each get crushed on multiple occasions. Mike Van Ryn got run through the glass by the Bruins before being run through the end boards by the Habs. Luke Schenn almost had his leg broken on a cowardly trip on an icing call.

And guys like Schenn, Alex Ponikarovsky and Carlo Colaiacovo (RIP) have each dropped the gloves more than once to stick up for a teammate. That's admirable, but none of those guys should be fighting.

The Leafs are a team full of small guys who play like they're big. They're willing to skate into a high traffic area. They're will to take a hit to make a play.

That's great. They have big hearts. But they don't have big bodies, and pretty soon simple physics will catch up to them.

Not every team in the NHL has a heavyweight. In fact, some very good ones (like Detroit) don't dress one. That's fine. Not every team needs a tough guy.

But this team does. Mayers and Hollweg don't scare anybody. When the Bruins were brutalizing the Leafs with clean hits, do you think Milan Lucic was worried about anyone looking for payback? When the Habs were brutalizing the Leafs with dirty hits, do you think George Laraque bothered to look over his shoulder?

Right now, if you're a physical player the Leafs are a fun team to play against. There's an excellent chance that some speedy midget will cut across the trolley tracks with his head down, just begging to get knocked out. And if somebody does come after you, there's a good chance you'll have an easy time padding your won/loss record.

Here's hoping Burke has seen enough. Let's find a legitimate tough guy -- a top ten or twenty heavyweight. Preferably somebody who can play a little bit, but I'm not too picky. As long as they're big, can throw, and have just enough crazy in them to do some damage.

The next time some highly skilled Leaf (or Jason Blake) decides to admire his pass, let's make sure the guy closing in on him has something to think about besides "Hey, I'm going to be on Sportscenter tonight!"

Five games in...

Some quick hits as we round past the 1/16th mark...

• Please stop talking about Luke Schenn's contract situation. It doesn't matter. The decision to keep him in Toronto or send him back to junior has nothing to do with starting the clock on his free agency eligibility.
  
  First of all, it's crazy to make assumptions about what the CBA will be like three or four years from now, let alone seven or eight. We have no idea when Schenn will be a free agent, because we have no idea how the CBA will read in a few years. And for that matter, it doesn't even matter whether Schenn is helping the team. The season is already a writeoff, so who cares if Schenn can add a few wins?
  
  The only factor worth considering is Schenn's development. That's it. Will he develop better in junior than in Toronto? If so, send him there. If not, keep him around. End of story.
  
  If he hits free agency a year early and demands big dollars because he's playing at a superstar level, that will be a problem the Leafs will be happy to have.
  
  
• I want to like Mikhail Grabovski. The kid has some moves, he's fast, and I'd love to chalk up the zero points to bad luck. I want him to a be star. But... um... I'm not getting that vibe yet, you know?
  
  
• Do Jamal Mayers and Ryan Hollweg have some sort of secret sidebet to see which one of them can be the first to get one of their teammates killed?
  
  
• I love the way Ron Wilson is handing out playing time. He's basically throwing his lineup card onto the ice every night and saying "Here, you guys fill this out".
  
  Last night in Pittsburgh, Wilson gave virtually the entire team a shot at powerplay time. That's exactly what he should be doing this early in the season. While Paul Maurice basically handed out ice time based on salary and reputation, Wilson is letting guys play their way in -- or out. Perfect.
  
  
• That said, maybe it would be a good idea for Wilson to ask Cliff Fletcher for a list of guys he's trying to trade and not bench them. Mike Van Ryn, I'm looking in your direction.
  
  
• Nikolai Kulemin is good. Two unassisted breakaway goals and two shootout goals -- if anybody ever figures out how to pass the puck to this kid, look out.
  
  
• Speaking of people who are really good at breakaways, only the exact opposite, why was Matt Stajan taking a shootout on Friday? Did I fall asleep and miss the first 14 rounds of that one?
  
  
• Finally... Dominic Moore is playing so well that I'm going to give him a new nickname: Dominic "Second Round Pick at the 2009 Deadline" Moore.
  

Get Hollweg out of here now, please

Four minutes.

Mark it down. That's how long it took Maple Leaf fans to officially turn on Ryan Hollweg.

After a pre-season that saw Hollweg go 0-6 in fights and get suspended for a hit from behind, Hollweg made it through four minutes of his regular season Maple Leaf debut before being kicked out of this afternoon's game against the Blues. Apparently this idiot doesn't understand that laying your forearm across the name on a guy's jersey and drilling him into the boards is against the rules.

Hollweg will get an automatic three-game suspension from the NHL as a repeat offender, but it's not enough. The NHL should send a message and suspend him for 10 games. If they want to go 15, that would be fine too.

In the meantime, the Leafs need to move on. Toronto is a rebuilding team, and they should be using their roster spots to develop young NHLers. Hollweg may be young, but he's no NHLer. I'm no big fan of Matt Stajan, but there's no reason for him to sit in the pressbox just so Hollweg can goon it up for four or five shifts a game.

You could make an argument for keeping Hollweg around if he could fight, but he can't. Getting your ass handed to you in a fight is kind of inspiring if you're a skill(?) player like Alex Ponikoravsky. When you're a so-called tough guy, it's just embarassing. Let Jamal Mayers handle the occasional scrap, with support from Kris Newbury or Ben Ondrus if he needs it.

We were warned about him when the Leafs traded for him. Now we know that Ranger fans were being kind. Write off the fifth-round pick the Rangers stole from us, and ship Hollweg down to the minors. The ECHL may be a good fit.

This moron is going to cripple somebody soon. Here's hoping he's not wearing a Leaf jersey when it happens.

Update: Ron Wilson is giving his post-game press conference right now, and he just called the Hollweg penalty "debatable".

No, no, NO! Stop it, coach! The penalty wasn't remotely debatable. Nobody expects you to bury your own guy in front of the media, but do not let him off the hook by pretending it wasn't a penalty.

One of the top priorities of this season is accountability. We sure didn't have it under Paul Maurice. We have had it under Wilson, so far. Don't blow it now by giving this failed goon a free pass.

10 Random Leafs predictions

I submitted a list of predictions as part of season preview day at Pension Plan Puppets. So to all those who read this blog but don't visit PPP¹, you can read all about my predictions for Bryan McCabe, Ryan Hollweg, Vesa Toskala and others:

10 Random Leafs predictions

(Spoiler alert: these will all come true, but try to act surprised anyway.)

¹i.e. my wife

Leafs add Hollweg

The Maple Leafs, still claiming to be on a youth movement, have once again sacrificed the future by trading a valuable future draft pick for a veteran of questionable worth, this time in the form of talentless thug Ryan Hollweg. While Cliff Fletcher's latest head-scratcher may draw chortles from league executives, it will no doubt be welcomed by the delusional masses who continue to fill the ACC night in and night out. "Draft schmaft" indeed.

The preceeding paragraph was my attempt to predict the lead in tomorrow morning's Damien Cox column. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.

So yes, the Leafs have picked up Hollweg. As Steve points out, Hollweg fights often and wins rarely. Combined with the Jamal Mayers pickup, this means the Leafs have added two fourth-liners who are willing to drop the gloves but can't really be called heavyweights. Let's be honest, when Mats Sundin and the Habs come to town I don't think Georges Laraque will lose any pre-game nap time over these two.

While I'm all for the Leafs adding somebody, anybody, who won't piddle themselves as soon as the going gets tough like the rest of these guys do, I have to wonder... couldn't Ben Ondrus and Kris Newbury fill those roles? Perhaps even with a little of that youthful enthusiasm we've heard so much about but rarely seen around here?

Mayers at least brings some veteran leadership to the table. Fletcher gets some credit for filling that void, even though it's a void he helped create in the first place.

Hollweg, on the other hand, is good at getting hit in the face with a stick. That's a skill the Leafs haven't had since Bryan Berard was here.

(And by the way, has anybody already called him "Hollweg the Angry Inch"? Because if not, I'd like to start.)

Anyhow... because I love linking to youtube fight videos, here's a reminder of what Newbury and Ondrus can do. Enjoy them now, it may be your only chance to see these guys do their thing this year.