Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Which teams have the best (and worst) odds of winning a Cup by 2028? Part 1

The question is simple enough: Which teams have the best and worst odds of winning at least one Stanley Cup over the next five years?

The answer isn’t simple at all. I know, because I’ve tried to figure it out three times now. The first was way back in 2015, when there were only 30 teams and some kid named Connor McDavid was about to debut. More recently, I tried again in 2018, in an effort I revisited a few weeks ago.

Did I get those lists right? No, and that’s part of the problem – you can’t, really, when you’re dealing with probabilities. Was I wrong to say that the Devils had just a measly 1% chance to win a Cup back in 2015, dead last in the league? They didn’t win, so in that sense I was right, but the actual correct answer would have been zero. Was I right to have Tampa in the top spot back in 2018? Yes, since they won twice in the next three years, but that means the 40% odds I gave them were way too low.

It's impossible. It’s futile. So needless to say, I’m trying again this week.

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