Weekend rankings: Sorting through the trade deadline fallout

The​ trade deadline was​ last​ week.​ It​ feels​ like​ last month.

That’s​ the thing about​ the deadline. It’s​ such​ a hugely important milestone​​ in the season that it almost manages to warp our sense of time around it. The weeks leading up to it seem to drag on forever. The day itself flies by in a blink. And then it’s all over and it almost immediately feels like a lifetime ago. Looks at us, watching Mark Stone play for the Ottawa Senators. We were so young then.

While you might be ready to move on past the deadline, the weekend rankings can’t quite yet. That’s because last week, we were still in pre-deadline mode and trying to figure out how different these rankings might look once the dealing is done. We can’t just leave a question like that open. Let’s dig in and find out how much the deadline day changed the rankings?

Uh, not all that much, actually.

That’s because the deadline saw something unusual this year: The best teams didn’t actually do all that much. Instead, most of the biggest moves were made by teams closer to the mushy middle.

That’s not the way it’s supposed to work. You’re supposed to have your sellers, who are bad and trying to get worse. They do that by selling off assets to the buyers, who are supposed to be the good teams searching for the final piece of a Stanley Cup puzzle.

But this year, we didn’t really see that. In fact, last week’s top five teams – the Islanders, Bruins, Sharks, Flames and Lightning – didn’t do all that much in the days around the deadline. The Bruins got Marcus Johansson and Charlie Coyle and the Sharks got Gustav Nyquist. But with apologies to Oscar Fantenberg and the Flames, that was about it in terms of meaningful moves. The Islanders and Lightning didn’t do anything at all.

In theory, that should open up the door for other teams to storm in and take those spots. But that didn’t really happen either. The Golden Knights were the biggest winners of deadline day itself thanks to the Stone blockbuster, but they’re not catching the Sharks or Flames so their path out of the Pacific remains brutal. And while the biggest trade deadline week moves were made by the Blue Jackets, they’re barely in the playoffs right now, let alone the top five. After this weekend, if anything, it might be time to start worrying about them.

The teams that could make a deadline-based claim at a spot are two that have spent much of the season shifting in and out of the top five. The Jets landed Kevin Hayes and the Predators got Wayne Simmonds and Mikael Granlund. Spoiler alert: One of them does crack the top five this week but we’ll get to that in a minute.

As for the sellers, the big one was the Senators. But they’ve already been owning the No. 1 spot in the bottom five, and after consulting with The Athletics’ analytics experts, it’s been determined that that’s as bad as I can rank them. I thought about trying to slot them in somewhere like “zero” or “negative three” or “let’s never speak of this again,” but apparently those aren’t options. The Senators stay where they already were and the rest of the bottom five doesn’t see all that much deadline-related movement either.

And that’s it for the 2019 deadline. I promise, after today, there will be no more weekly power ranking columns framed around it.

(But tune in next week for the 2020 trade deadline preview.)

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed towards a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

We all had a chance to learn a new rule yesterday: You can win a shootout without actually putting the puck into the net, thanks to the ultra-rare shootout HORN OF DOOM:

That win also moved the Capitals back into first place in the Metro, as the Islanders lost both weekend games and continue to struggle when they’re not pantsing John Tavares and the Maple Leafs. That leaves us without a Metro team in our top five again, at least temporarily, while making room for a Central team to nudge back in. But which one? Let’s end the suspense …

5. Winnipeg Jets (39-22-4, +28 true goals differential*) – Should this be the Predators? Maybe. But the Jets are still holding down a narrow lead in the Central and maybe more than narrow if you factor in their games in hand. They beat the Predators head-to-head on Friday. And they may have landed the bigger deadline day prize in Hayes, although that’s a close call and probably hinges on whether you think Simmonds has much left. It’s not much more than a coin flip, really. But we don’t do ties here, so the Jets get the spot this week.

4. Boston Bruins (39-17-9, +34) – Their win over Tampa snapped the Lightning’s 10-game win streak and was the sort of statement game that suggests that the Atlantic may not be quite the sure thing it looks like. The Bruins are riding a streak of 16 straight with at least a point, although they still haven’t opened up all that much of a lead over the Maple Leafs for home ice in their almost inevitable first-round matchup. Maybe that comes this week; Boston gets a tough matchup tomorrow with the Hurricanes, but then finishes off the week with home games against the Panthers and Senators.

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Weekend rankings: Trade deadline day edition

Welcome​ to the deadline​ day​ power​ rankings.​ Please​ read​ them quickly,​ since there’s a good​ chance that at​ least​ a few of them​​ will be completely out of date within a few hours.

But first, let’s do a quick round up of what’s happened so far. The star of the deadline show has been the Columbus Blue Jackets, who pulled off a pair of deals with the Senators for Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel while standing their ground on Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. That means that as of this morning, at least, the Blue Jackets’ roster features four of the top pending UFAs in the league. And they may not keep any of them past this season. As things stand right now, Jarmo Kekalainen hasn’t just pushed all his chips into the middle of the table, he’s also tossed in his watch, wedding ring and his childhood teddy bear.

On one hand, that seems insane. If a team like the Lightning want to go all-in, sure, you could see that. Maybe somebody like the Sharks or Flames too. Those teams are legitimate Cup contenders. And maybe you could even talk yourself into it for someone like the Bruins or Penguins, where cap pressure and aging curves mean there’s a window of opportunity closing. The Blue Jackets’ window isn’t closing, because it was never open to begin with. This is a franchise that’s never won a playoff round and has spent the last few weeks barely hanging onto a wildcard spot in the East. This is the team that’s going to double down?

But on the other hand … well, yeah, maybe this is the team. Look at the Metro right now. The Penguins look worn down. The Capitals have too, at least for long stretches. The Islanders are a great story, but they’re not a team you just take a knee and concede the division to. The Hurricanes might be as good as anyone, but they’re also the Hurricanes. If you’re the Blue Jackets, and you still haven’t won that first playoff round after all these years, and you’re staring down this sort of field, why not take your shot? How many times can you kick the can down the road? Maybe more importantly, how many times can you ask your fans to let you kick the can down the road? If not now, when?

Maybe it doesn’t work and you lose in the first round or even miss the playoffs altogether. (As Ian Mendes pointed out, a last-weekend playoff miss could even come at the hands of the Senators, which would be just about the nightmare scenario for Columbus.) This is exactly the sort of gamble that can cost a GM his job. But that’s why it’s hard not to admire it. In today’s NHL, most GMs would rather play it safe than stick their neck out. Instead, Kekalainen is going old school. He’s pretty much burning the boats.

And he might not be done. We could still see a Panarin trade today, although that’s seeming less likely. At the very least, he won’t be traded for futures. Could we see an old school hockey trade instead? In theory, adding Duchene and Dzingel could give the Blue Jackets the flexibility to at least consider it, although time may have run out.

Outside of Columbus, we’ve still got lots of stories to sort through today. Mark Stone is the biggest name left on the block, and barring a last-minute change of heart, he’ll be traded within the next few hours; Pierre LeBrun has the favorites as “Winnipeg, Boston, Calgary and Nashville in there and perhaps to some lesser degree the Islanders and Vegas.” That’s also a pretty good list of the buyers we’re still waiting on for power moves and there may not be enough big names left for everyone to come away with an impact player.

Another name to keep an eye on: Wayne Simmonds, as the Flyers take the better-late-than-never approach to deadline selling.

#Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher has now engaged in trade talks for Wayne Simmonds today. He’d been waiting until the last moment before deadline to give his team every chance to claw back in the race.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) February 25, 2019

We’re also watching the Rangers, who have more selling to do, and the Red Wings, who should. The Hurricanes still seem like a team with something up their sleeve. And what do the Stars do after landing Mats Zuccarello, only to see him break his arm in his very first game?

We’ll know by 3 p.m. ET. Until then, let’s get to the final pre-deadline edition of the rankings.

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed towards a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

There was an outdoor game on Saturday, a fact you had no doubt been looking forward to for weeks or only realized when you looked up from trade rumors and wondered why Gritty was running around naked. The novelty has certainly worn off these games, but this one ended up being a pretty good one despite some less-than-great conditions. The Flyers’ late comeback and overtime win probably won’t end up mattering all that much for them, but it could be the point that keeps the Penguins out of the playoffs.

In other news, we were this close to the pre-game shootout scenario. Maybe next time.

5. New York Islanders (36-18-7, +34 true goals differential*) – At least a few of the warning lights are starting to blink just a little brighter. The Caps are back within two points, and the Islanders haven’t looked great over the last few weeks, even as they’ve continued to earn wins. One of their Metro rivals has just improved, at least for now, and if others follow suit then Dennis Seidenberg isn’t likely to make up the difference. It’s possible that they have a quiet deadline and don’t belong in this spot by Monday afternoon. But it’s not Monday afternoon, and we don’t bump teams based on worst-case scenarios, so they’re still here for now.

4. Boston Bruins (36-17-9, +27) – They haven’t lost in regulation in over a month and have opened up a little bit of ground on the Maple Leafs for home ice in the Atlantic. The presence of the Lightning makes it hard for them to move much higher, but for now, their hot streak is enough to get them into the top five for the first time all season. Now, is it enough to convince Don Sweeney to pull the trigger on something big?

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Grab Bag: An important word about pajamas

In the Friday Grab Bag:
- I wrote a bunch of jokes about players on the trade block, and miraculously none of them got traded overnight to ruin it
- An important word to Islander fans about calling John Tavares Pajama Boy
- An obscure player who Don Cherry is mad at or something?
- The week's three comedy stars, featuring a lot more poop than usual
- And a YouTube look back at a distant past in which the Senators were cheap, losing players and facing arena delays. Sure glad those days are over!

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Weekend power rankings: A dozen deadline week predictions

One​ week to go.

We’re​ just​ seven​ days​ away​ from​ the trade​ deadline, and historically,​ this is when​ things​ really start to​​ get busy. Fans love to talk about deadline day, and that’s still the main attraction. This time next week, we’ll all be fake-coughing our way through calling in sick to work and settling in to watch the various deadline day shows struggle to fill airtime until the flood gates open. It’s always a fun day.

But in recent years, the process has evolved to the point where we should really be referring to deadline week. We typically see almost as many trades during the week-long lead up to the deadline as we do on the day itself. And that means the wait is pretty much over. It’s go time.

Let’s crunch some numbers. In 2016, there were 21 trades on deadline day and 16 more in the week leading up to it. The 2017 deadline was nearly identical, with 23 deals on deadline day and another 16 the week before. Last year, the numbers dropped slightly, with 18 deals on deadline day and 12 in the week leading up to it. (All totals are from the various NHL.com trade tracker pages.)

So in terms of the number of deals made, last year was quieter than a typical recent deadline, both on deadline day and in the week before. That could be a blip or the start of a trend. And if it’s the latter, we might expect that this week is relatively quiet too.

But something else stands out. In 2016, almost all of the action came in that final week; there were just four trades made around the league in the rest of February. In 2017, there were five. But last year, there were nine. Again, maybe that’s a blip. But it suggests GMs weren’t actually that much quieter last year after all — they were simply getting their deals done earlier.

So what about this year? It looks a lot like last year. We’ve already had eleven February trades. And that’s not counting the unusually busy January, which we talked about at the time. Back then, we wondered if the flurry of moves might predict a busy February. And in a sense, it already has, with more trades than usual over the last 17 days. But does that many deals already being done mean we’re now in for a quiet final week?

There are a few reasons to think we might be. The most obvious is the standings – the Western turtle derby has resulted in a scenario where virtually the entire conference is still in the race, or at least close enough to it that a delusional GM could try to talk himself into it. Thankfully, it doesn’t sound like teams like the Kings and Ducks will make that mistake. But if the rest of the conference still thinks they have a shot, there may not be enough sellers to support a busy market.

This year’s deadline also feels somewhat unique, in the sense that there are at least three or four players on the block who would be considered major stars who are still in their prime. Artemi Panarin, Mark Stone, Sergei Bobrovsky and Matt Duchene are bigger prizes than what we usually see available at the deadline. But they’re also the kind of names who could cause other teams to play wait-and-see. Are you really going to settle for Micheal Ferland as your big deadline acquisition if there’s a chance you could get Stone or Panarin? Maybe, but not until the last minute.

The good news, at least for fans who want to see some action, is that the last minute is almost here. And maybe I’m an optimist, but I don’t think we’re in for an especially quiet week. The situations in Columbus and Ottawa should come to a head soon, one way or another, and most of those Western wannabes are one or two more losses away from having no choice but to get real. The dam isn’t exactly going to burst, because it’s already been leaking steadily for weeks. But it’s probably not going to hold for much longer.

So this week, let’s do the regular top and bottom five rankings. But we’ll mix in a prediction for each of those teams along the way. Will I be right about any one them? Probably not, but that hasn’t stopped me before, so let’s do this.

Road to the Cup

The five teams that look like they’re headed toward a summer of keg stands and fountain pool parties.

The Carolina Hurricanes broke out a few new post-win celebrations this week, and Don Cherry criticized them for it. That meant we all had to spend the weekend playing yet another round of that game where we pretend that this is some sort of raging and divisive controversy, and not something that 95 percent of the hockey world already likes and supports. You’re being criticized by Don Cherry and Brian Burke and like three random dudes on Twitter, Hurricanes fans. Everyone else has your back. You’ll be fine.

In other news, the Hurricanes are going to make the playoffs, which will be good, and somebody is going to try to claim that they did it because they played duck-duck-goose after their games, which will be terrible.

5. New York Islanders (35-17-6, +33 true goals differential*) – Saturday’s win may have spelled the end of the Barclays Center era. The team doesn’t have any more regular-season games scheduled there, and they’ll play the first round of the playoffs at Nassau Coliseum. They’d be back at Barclays for the second round, though, meaning Islander fans are in the weird position of hoping to get a return to an arena they all hate.

As for the prediction, I admit that I love the theory that Lou Lamoriello will go out and land Panarin. It makes more sense than most of the other Panarin rumors.

Given the general manager, the assets and the irony (of how Tavares was handled last deadline), I think the Islanders might be my sneaky Panarin favorite.

— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) February 9, 2019

But as much as I’d love to make that my prediction, I don’t think it happens. The hurdle is the Blue Jackets, who we’re told still want to make a playoff run. Would they really send Panarin to a team they have a good chance of facing in Round 1? Maybe, but I can’t see it. So instead, let’s pencil Lou and the Islanders in for a consolation prize from among the lesser names. Maybe Gustav Nyquist?

4. Winnipeg Jets (36-19-4, +30) – The schedule served up three winnable games, but the Jets only came away with three points. They didn’t lose any Central ground to the struggling Predators, but it was a missed opportunity to build a cushion. And now that Jordan Binnington and the Blues are unbeatable, the division no longer feels like a two-team race.

Prediction: Given their roster and cap situation, the Jets should be all-in on the biggest rentals. I’m with Murat Ates when he identifies Mark Stone as their best fit. It will cost a ton, but I think they might get him.

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Which NHL teams are under the most pressure at the trade deadline?

With​ two weeks to​ go​ until​ the​ trade​ deadline,​ we’re well​ into that fascinating​ time of the​ year​ when wins and​​ losses take a back seat to the rumor mill. Did your favorite team play last night? You’re not sure, but you heard a rumor about them trading a conditional sixth-round pick, so let’s argue about that for a few hours. Honestly, it’s a pretty great time to be a fan.

So today, let’s skip the standings and focus on a far more important ranking: Which teams are under the most pressure to make a deal or two (or three, or four) over the next 12 days? Who can afford to stay quiet if they have to and who absolutely has to do something big?

These aren’t necessarily the teams that will be the busiest; instead, consider it a ranking of the ones that have the toughest jobs ahead of them. We’ll go through the whole league, working our way up from the least to the most pressure. That’s always fun, because there are 31 spots to fill and every fan base adamantly believes that their team has to at least be in the top 10.

We’ll start with a team that’s had a recent habit of showing up in unexpected places on lists and power rankings and the standings.

31. New York Islanders

The Islanders are a good example of the difference between wanting to make a deadline deal and needing to make one. They’re a good team with a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup and they’ll probably be looking to bring in reinforcements. They might even try to pull off something big, and if they do, their fans will be thrilled.

But what if they don’t? The Islanders are already the season’s best story. Lou Lamoriello, Barry Trotz and friends have pulled off a near-miracle. If they can dominate the deadline too, awesome. But even if they sit it out completely, they’ve already won. And even the most fickle Islanders fans couldn’t possibly have a word of complaint … could they?

30. Washington Capitals

You know that old saying about how when your team wins a championship, you’re not allowed to complain about anything for years afterwards? No fan actually believes that, and if the Capitals implode and miss the playoffs, Brian MacLellan will be ripped for it. But that seems exceedingly unlikely, and without any major holes to address or much cap room to do it with, expectations should be reasonable. Pierre LeBrun says they’ll be “careful buyers” and are “willing to tinker”, which sounds about right. But whatever happens, they’ve already got their rings.

29. Montreal Canadiens

28. Chicago Blackhawks

27. Vancouver Canucks

26. Philadelphia Flyers

Let’s call this the “playing with house money” section. All four teams are either making playoff runs we didn’t think they’d be anywhere close to, or at least looking far better than they did earlier in the season.

It feels weird to have Montreal this low, because it’s Montreal. But they’ve already exceeded expectations, and we’ve gone from Marc Bergevin being on the hottest seat imaginable to the local media insisting he was right all along. Plus, the Habs’ playoff spot seems relatively secure. Bergevin has already made some depth moves to bring in those heavy depth guys he loves so much, but the Habs have been largely absent from the rumor mill on the bigger names.

The Canucks, Hawks and Flyers are all in tougher spots in terms of the playoff picture, and may be tempted to bring in rental help. But with all three teams in various stages of rebuilds, it’s unlikely that any feel pressured to make major moves. The Flyers take the top spot in the group based on having one star UFA in Wayne Simmonds that they’ll need to find a home for, but otherwise at least a few Philadelphia fans are probably too enamored with Carter Hart right now to get mad about a quiet deadline.

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