Image Courtesy lordosis via PPP
Let's assume that the Islanders have wrapped up last place. If the Leafs can continue their
Assuming that the lottery rules are the same as previous years (with the same distribution of odds, and the rule that no team can move up more than four spots), here's how the odds break down.
18.8% - Odds that the Leafs win the lottery and move up to #1
25.0% - Odds that the Islanders win the lottery, meaning the Leafs stay at #2
39.2% - Odds that a team behind the Leafs wins the lottery and bumps them down to #3
17.0% - Odds that a team behind the Leafs wins the lottery, but does not move up far enough to bump them out of the #2 spot.
In other words, if the Leafs can finish 29th they'll have an 60.8% chance at landing Tavares or Hedman.
Yes... we... can!