Monday, November 1, 2021

Weekend rankings: A new number one, shaking up the bottom five, and closing out an ugly week

You’d be forgiven for feeling like we just lived through one of the worst weeks in NHL history.

We didn’t – there have been far worse, starting with several in May and June of 2010 that we’re only now beginning to truly understand. We didn’t know about that situation while it was happening, or for a decade after. It’s hard not to wonder what else we don’t know about.

But you could argue that last week was actually a good one, as an old boy’s club that lives in perpetual fear of ever acknowledging that something could be wrong actually offered some accountability for a few of their own. Many of us assumed the Blackhawks would bury the report; they didn’t, to their credit, and now we know much more about the many ways that the hockey world failed Kyle Beach. Those details were hard to stomach, but that’s the point – nobody gets to hand wave this one away (or pretend that it could never happen with your favorite team). Instead, we need to call it what it was, and continues to be: A near-total failure of leadership at every level.

So now what? What do you do now if you’re a fan? Is it OK to just want to have some fun watching – or reading about – a hockey game right now? Mark Lazerus wrestled with that question from a Chicago perspective. It’s not an easy one. We can’t ever forget what happened to Kyle Beach, and how many in the hockey world abandoned him, and there’s no option to just move on. We know what we know. This is the new normal. Do you even care what’s happening on the ice right now?

I’m not sure. I’m guessing that a lot of fans would like to get back to feeling like this league is fun, and might be looking for something a little more light-hearted, if only as a distraction. That sort of stuff is a big part of my role around here, and we’ll get back to something along those lines tomorrow. But for today, at least, I hope you’ll forgive me if I’m not really in the mood for punchlines or wacky takes.

On to the rankings…

Road to the Cup

The five teams with the best chances of becoming the first franchise in three years to win a Stanley Cup that we have to admit probably counts

Sidney Crosby is back in the lineup, and while the early returns were not great, it means we might finally start getting some clarity on what the Penguins are going to be.

If you’re keeping track, the team I said would have the widest range of possible outcomes this year just closed out October by holding down first place and dead last in the Metro within an 11-day span.

5. St. Louis Blues (6-1-0, +14 true goals differential*) – The five-spot was a very tough call this week, with three Western teams in the mix. I’m not sure what to do with the Pacifc; I had the Oilers here last week and they didn’t really do anything to lose the spot, but the emergence of the Flames and a win streak from the Knights means that the division looks like a tougher slog than it did even a few days ago. The Central is no slouch, and the Blues did lose to the Avalanche this week. But they had shutout wins in their other two, and I don’t mind churning the top five just a bit in the early going when we’re still not sure what’s real. St. Louis has the California trip this week, so let’s see if they can bank four or five points and make this pick look good.

4. Tampa Bay Lightning (4-3-1, -1) – If you missed it, check out Dom’s piece on why four top contenders off to slow starts shouldn’t be panicking quite yet. Two of those four teams are still hanging around our top five list, including the Lightning, who started the week with a bad loss to the Sabres but recovered to post back-to-back 5-1 wins. The Caps will be a good challenge tonight.

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Monday, October 25, 2021

Weekend rankings: Panthers keep rolling, Hawks keep losing, and the Maple Leafs get embarrassed

It’s week two, it’s still too early, and some of the power rankings out there are already losing their minds.

OK, Sean and Dom didn’t quite phrase it that way. They went with “embracing the chaos”. But the Sabres as the league’s second-best team? The Sharks in the top five? The Red Wings ahead of the Lightning? The Senators and Blue Jackets ahead of the Avalanche and Islanders? Vegas at 25? The Habs in dead last?

Well, yeah, maybe that last one works. But the rest of it is madness. It’s been two weeks! You can’t overreact to two weeks.

Except… what do you do, then?

It’s one thing to hand-wave away the occasional weird early-season results. But two weeks into this year, it feels like nothing makes sense. Hardly anyone is playing the way we expected, and the standings look like somebody took a snow globe full of little hockey logos and gave it a good shake. Not all of it will matter. Most of it won’t. But some of this has to mean something, right?

I’m not sure. And that’s a problem, since I’m the guy who does the “let’s think long-term” rankings, meaning I’m in way more danger of embarrassing myself than Sean and Dom are. If the Sabres don’t win another game the rest of the year, well, they were still 3-0-0, so maybe they deserved that ranking, if only briefly. I’m trying to predict the future here, so if I jump on a bandwagon too quickly then I have to wear it all year long.

It’s very possible that we’ll look back on a snapshot of the week two standings in a few months and laugh at how none of it held up. Welcome to the parity era, where anyone can beat anyone and it takes months to get any idea of what’s really happening, am I right? But maybe we look back and see that some of it was real, and some of those surprise teams on either side of the ledger were trying to tell us something.

Fair warning: For this week’s rankings, I’m still going to mostly stay conservative, and continue to lean more on preseason expectations than what’s happened on the ice so far. If that’s going to bother you, then hit up the Friday rankings and embrace that chaos. For now, I’m going to (mostly) step carefully for one more week. But after that, it will be time to start considering some bigger moves for the team’s that are surprising us, and things might get weird

Road to the Cup

The five teams with the best chances of becoming the first franchise in three years to win a Stanley Cup that we have to admit probably counts

We got an early-season Avs/Lightning matchup on Saturday, and in true pro wrestling style they left us wanting more by delivering a non-finish. Well, we call them shootouts in the hockey world, but it’s the same thing. Colorado took the extra point in the coin flip contest, and we’ll have to wait for December for the rematch – and then maybe June for the big showdown.

OK, seriously, final warning, a couple of the teams in this week’s top five have bad records – if you can’t get your head around the whole “long term” concept, this is your last chance to bail out while you can.

5. Edmonton Oilers (5-0-0, +10 true goals differential*) – Two reasons. First, and most obviously, they’re 5-0-0, and even with a weakish schedule that’s impressive. But they also get a boost because Vegas is struggling. We all kind of penciled the Knights in as the Pacific winner before they even dropped the puck, but the Oilers have already yanked that status away from them. It’s Edmonton, so of course we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop, but maybe this is the year that it doesn’t. Just a team with two superstars, enough supporting talent, adequate goaltending, and a path to winning a weak division. Add it all up, and start looking way too far ahead, and it could at least get them to home ice in the second round.

4. Carolina Hurricanes (4-0-0, +11) – I’ve only got one spot for the Metro this week, and I’m giving it to the undefeated Hurricanes, who’ve won four straight plus tonight’s guaranteed Freddie Andersen shutout against the Leafs. But with the Penguins, Rangers, and Caps all looking strong, it won’t take much of a wobble to put this spot up for grabs.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning (2-2-1, -4) – In hindsight, the early schedule was tough, but this week brings the Sabres and Coyotes so we should see the Lightning remind us of what they can do. Still, the long-term loss of Nikita Kucherov means we have to bump them down at least one slot.

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Friday, October 22, 2021

Grab Bag: Yes we know it’s too early, Gritty meets a puppy, Gretzky and Messier get weird and more

Welcome back to the Grab Bag, a feature that runs weekly monthly whenever I get around to it during the season. If you’ve been around over the years, you know the drill. If you’re new, you can expect NHL personalities trying to be funny, obscure players, weird rants, unworkable ideas, and breakdowns of old YouTube clips that go into way too much detail. Will you learn anything important? You will not. Look, it’s Friday and we all deserve some occasional empty calories. Let’s get to it.

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Thursday, October 21, 2021

The Athletic Hockey Show: Those unbeatable Sabres

On this week's episode of The Athletic Hockey Show:
- The Sabres start off hot, and you're a bad person if you're not rooting for them
- How worried should fans in Chicago and Montreal be?
- Teeing up Jesperi Kotkaniemi's return to Montreal
- A caller has an interesting point about some history that will be made next week
- A listener applies for the intern job
- This week in hockey history and lots more...

The Athletic Hockey Show runs most days of the week during the season, with Ian and I hosting every Thursday. There are two versions of each episode available:
- An ad-free version for subscribers that you can find here
- An ad-supported version you can get for free wherever you normally find your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify)




Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Puck Soup: Early season panic

On this week's episode of the Puck Soup podcast:
- Wait, is Buffalo good now?
- We debate just how worried Montreal and Chicago fans should be
- The Evander Kane mess
- More Jack Eichel trade talk
- Does the Leafs backup goalie prove the salary cap is broken?
- NHL dress codes, wrestling finishers during hockey fights, OUFL Halloween costumes and more...

>> Stream it now:

>> Or, listen on The Athletic or subscribe on iTunes.

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.