NHL 2024-25 prediction contest results, where playing it safe (finally) paid off

July 1 has come and gone, marking one of the most important dates on the entire NHL calendar.

Free agency? Extension? The start of the new league year? Yeah, I guess that stuff matters a bit. But I’m talking about the truly big stuff: The end of the annual prediction contest.

Yes, with the first day of free agency over with, we can officially close the book on the 2024-25 contest. It was the fourth time we’ve run this thing, and scores have been increasing every year. In theory, you guys are getting better at this. In reality… well, we’ll get to that.

As usual, the gimmick here is that the questions are easy, but you take a zero if you offer even one wrong answer, so the risk-reward can get tricky. If you missed out on the contest, or could use a refresher on how it all works, you can find the original post here. An initial summary came a week later, in which we learned that nobody believed in Sam Reinhart. Correctly, as it turns out. I’m sure he’ll be crushed once he and the rest of his teammates sober up. If they ever do.

The good news is that unlike last year, there was no tie at the top this time. There was one winner. Was it you? Maybe! (No.) Let’s go through the questions and see how this played out.

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Should Leaf fans view Mitch Marner as a hero or villain? A debate with myself

It’s official. The Mitch Marner era is over in Toronto, with the Leafs executing a sign-and-trade deal that sends him to Vegas Golden Knights hours before Monday's midnight deadline. (add link)

Leaf fans, how are we feeling about all of this? More specifically, how are we feeling about Marner himself?

Let’s put the question even more simply: When he makes his first trip back to Toronto, are you booing him? Does he get an ovation? Something in between? No reaction at all?

I think I can guess where the majority might be leaning today. I’m also pretty sure that it’s far from unanimous. So today, let’s debate the subject with arguments, from two different types of fans, both of whom are me.

In one corner, my sports fan brain – logical, rational, and not especially susceptible to easy narratives. In the other, my sports fan heart, which is not quite as rational, but is also the main reason I’m here.

It’s worth pointing out that the last time we broke out this gimmick for a Leafs debate, it was 2022 and we were still doing the “run it back” dance with this team. Back then, my head said to stay the course, while my heart said to blow it all up. If you look back at that post today, well, I think it’s fair to say that the heart won, or at least it should have. We’ll see if that holds true today.

Mitch Marner is an ex-Leaf. Are we mad at him? Should we be? I’m not sure, so let’s drop the gloves and square off.

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The NHL tried something new with how this year's draft worked. It got awkward

For decades, the NHL had a unique approach to their annual draft. While other leagues used a decentralized approach, with teams drafting from various war rooms around North America, the NHL brought everyone to one host city for a days-long celebration of the future. Aside from 2020 and 2021, when COVID forced a fully virtual draft, it’s been an everyone-invited event for decades. It was a rare case of hockey doing something cool and unique.

And so of course, this year, they said: Nah, let’s just do it the way everyone else does.

Back in 2023, we reported on the reasons behind the potential change, but we’ll summarize here: It was expensive for teams to fly their entire front office and scouting staffs in to the draft,  the travel was a pain, the draft floor was too crowded for making trades, and there wasn’t enough time to get everyone back home before free agency opened.

You could argue that all of those complains are reasonable. You could also point out that absolutely none of them have anything to do with the fans, or the viewers at home. The NHL is ostensibly an entertainment product, but they tend to forget that minor detail roughly (checks notes) all the time. Is saving a few bucks worth it if one of your biggest nights looks worse as a result?

Maybe not, but that’s only if it looks worse. Maybe it could be fine. Heck, maybe it would even be an improvement – it’s not like the old way got rave reviews each and every year. Then again, last year’s Sphere experience would be a tough act to follow.

I didn’t love the change when it was first announced, but I was intrigued, especially after reading Julian’s piece about how it would all work. I wanted to give it a fair shot. Here are my thoughts on the good, the bad, and everything in between from Friday’s night’s opening round.

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Which team can build the most impressive starting lineup of cap era draft busts?

It’s draft weekend in the NHL. A time for renewal, and replenishment, and metaphors about fresh sheets of ice. Optimism, you might even say. This may be the one day of the year where every team and their fan base can legitimately feel like their situation is about to get better.

We can’t have that. Let’s make everyone sad instead.

Today’s post is simple: We’re going to go around the league and try to assemble the best six-man lineup of draft busts from the cap era. That’s three forwards, two defensemen and a goalie that were good enough to be worth a high pick, but for whatever reason just didn’t work out at the NHL level. We’re limiting this to first-round picks for the skaters, and to the first three rounds for goalies (who rarely get picked in the first).

Sound fun? No? Good, that’s the whole point. Let’s remember some whiffs.

As usual, we’ll do about 10 teams and then turn it over to you in the comments to suggest other contenders. Let’s start with the Bruins, if only because all their fans know what’s coming and we might as well rip the bandaid off right away.

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Mitch Marner UFA power rankings: Who needs him, what's funniest and where does he land?

We’re less than a week away from free agency, and the big name is Mitch Marner. You may have heard about it. It’s been kind of a thing.

And as you’d expect, several teams have emerged as potential destinations, while others are likely happy to lurk in the background. As of today, there’s no clear favorite. That feels like a good reason to break out the trusty Power Rankings gimmick, and see what kind of different lenses we can look at the situation through.

And yes, we’ll end with a prediction. You should probably ignore that part, because I’m bad at this. But first, let’s start with the obvious category…

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