Boo, in more ways than one. Celebrate Halloween with the NHL's scariest starts

Happy Halloween. Are you scared?

No? You should be. Because there’s probably a player on your favorite team who stinks right now.

That’s the stunningly creative theme of today’s post, as we scan around the league for players who've had frighteningly shaky Octobers. Bad starts are relative, of course, and we’re mostly focused on the guys who came into the season with high expectations – either because they were stars, or they were joining a new team, or both.

We’ll fill out a 21-man roster – we’re struggling here, so we’ll need that extra goalie – with a limit of one player per team, because otherwise the whole roster would just be this. That means 11 teams are left out, either because nobody is playing poorly or our expectations were already low, and I’ll leave it to you to decide which is which. We’ll work those teams in with some half-hearted honorable mentions, but for the rest of, let’s crank up the spooky music and hunt for some last-minute costume ideas that are truly scary.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

NHL weekend rankings: Who's had it worse so far, the Oilers or the Flames?

It’s the Battle of Alberta!

Specifically, the battle to see which of these two fan bases should be the most miserable right now.

This wasn’t how it was supposed to be. Heading into the season, the Oilers were a team that finally had everything lined up just right for a Cup run. And while the Flames weren’t favorites, they’d finally shed the dark cloud of Darryl Sutter and were ready to move forward in a Pacific where the path to the playoffs was wide open. Give the two teams a few weeks to establish themselves, and the Heritage Classic was destined to be a barnburner.

It's fair to say that the barn remains unburned. That’s not to way that last night’s game wasn’t fun, or it’s own kind of spectacle. By now, we all know the familiar beats when it comes to an outdoor game – the funny pregame outfits, the soaring panoramic shots, the alternate jerseys that will never be seen again, the weird-but-intermittently-loud ambience, the local flavor. Last night checked all the boxes. It was fun.

What hasn’t been fun for these two teams: Pretty much everything else. Both fan bases have the right to be cranky right now, with the teams tied for 30th in the NHL with five points each. In the spirit of competition, let’s ask the obvious question: Which team has had it worse, Edmonton or Calgary?

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

You can go home again, by acing our “Who did he play for twice?” quiz

Did you make time for Fluto’s story about Milan Lucic’s return to the Bruins this week? Be sure to check it out, it’s an interesting look at what brings a player back to a team after years away.

Lucic isn’t the only prodigal son who returned to a former team this year. We’ve seen Trevor Lewis head back to Los Angeles, Laurent Brossoit return to Winnipeg, and Tony DeAngleo get another chance in Carolina. Those guys are following in a rich history of NHL players returning to former teams, a storyline that everyone in this league seems to love. Big stars, virtual unknowns, and everyone in between – as their careers wind on, they often find themselves back in a familiar uniform.

So today, we’re going to honor those comeback stories by flipping the script on our usual quiz format. Most time, we play a game called “Who didn’t he play for?”, where I give you a player and you try to figure out which team never employed him. This time, we’re going “Who did he play for twice?”, in which I give you a player and you… actually, if you can’t figure it out from the title, I’m not sure any further explanation can help you.

As always, we’ll have 16 names to test your memory, ranging from super-easy to take-a-guess. Complete the quiz, then scroll back up to check your score and see how you did.

0 – 2 right: You’re Peter Forsberg returning to the Avalanche and lasting two games.

3 – 5 right: You’re Mark Messier returning to the Rangers with a footprint on your back.

6 – 8 right: You’re Luc Robitaille returning to the Kings.

9 – 11 right: You’re Luc Robitaille returning to the Kings. No, the other time.

12 – 15 right: You’re Roberto Luongo returning to the Panthers and rediscovering your magic.

16 right: You’re Teemu Selanne returning to the Ducks to win the Stanley Cup.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

A brief history of Canada's early Cup favorites, and where they went wrong

So about that Canadian Cup drought…

It’s been a while since one of the country’s teams has won a championship. You may have heard about it. In fact, you may be sick of hearing about it. You might even be looking for an exceedingly dumb alternate universe where things were easier, and if so I’ve got you covered.

Or you might be wondering if this is the year the drought ends, in which case the news isn’t great. Heading into this season, the oddsmakers pointed to two Canadian teams as legitimate contenders: the Oilers and Maple Leafs. Depending on where and when you looked, you could even make the case that those two teams were the leaguewide favorites. At the very least, they were near the top – in June, our list had the Oilers second at +900, while the Leafs were tied for fourth +1200.

(I’ll pause here to explain that +900 is the same as 9-to-1, which is to say an implied 10% chance at winning. The lower the number, the better for a team's chances, so +500 or 5-to-1 is a strong favorite, while +2000 or 20-to-1 is a much longer shot.)

But two weeks in, the Oilers are a mess and the Leafs have been inconsistent. And while we’ve seen some positive signs from the Canucks and Senators, none of the country’s teams are looking like Cup favorites right now.

There’s time for all that to sort itself out, but for now it had me wondering: Which teams were Canada’s best Stanley Cup hopes of the drought era, based on the preseason odds? We know teams like the 1994 Canucks, 2004 Flames and 2006 Oilers all came agonizingly close, but all of those were Cinderella runs. Which Canadian teams in the last 30 years went into a season as consensus Cup favorites? And then, what went wrong?

Luckily for me, it turns out there’s a site that tracks exactly this sort of thing. And as it turns out, there have been 15 Canadian teams that have gone into a season at less than +1000 since 1993. Let’s look back at those teams and see whether we can learn anything from what happened to them once the games mattered. At the very least, we can try to cheer up those salty Oiler and Leaf fans.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Puck Soup: Frozen frenzy

A new episode of the Puck Soup podcast has been posted:

>> Stream on the Puck Soup site
>> Listen on The Athletic
>> Subscribe on iTunes
>> Listen on Spotify

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.

Weekend NHL rankings: The Oilers are bad now, and other trends that may not last

We’re two weeks in. Are you keeping up on your mandatory first-month cliches?

Week 1: “It’s too early.”

Week 2: “It’s still early.”

Week 3: “It’s gets late early around here.”

Week 4: Miscellaneous Halloween “it’s getting scary” reference.

But while (checks notes) it’s still early, some trends are coming into focus already. Let’s take a look at a few, and see if we think they’ll continue.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Building history's best roster of guys who weren't the top star with their own name

A very important milestone happened on Saturday night in Montreal, when a longstanding NHL record was broken by rookie wonderkid Connor Bedard. They didn’t stop the game to recognize the accomplishment with a ceremony, which was unfortunate, and I’m not even sure that casual fans noticed it. But it was very important.

By recording the third point of his young career, Connor Bedard became the all-time leading scorer among guys named “Bedard”. He broke a decades old tie between a pair of Jims, 1950s defenseman Jim Bedard and 1970s goalie Jim Bedard, both of whom were tied with two career points.

No? It’s just me who cares about this stuff? Yeah, I guess that’s possible. But I’ve always been mildly fascinated by guys who become NHL stars while clearly being the second-best player with their own last name.

So that’s what we’re doing today, as an early-season Friday time-waster. Let’s make an all-time roster of great players who weren’t quite great enough to be the best player with their own name.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

The Contrarian: How Mark Messier saved the Canucks, and other fake arguments

Welcome to The Contrarian, a new column idea that I’m very excited about.

Or am I?

You see what I did there. And there’s more where that came from, because the concept here is simple: You send me some NHL-related statements that you believe to be true. It can be something that seems obvious, maybe even inarguable. Then I argue it anyways, and try to convince you that you’re wrong.

I get to flex my contrarian muscles, which will come in handy if I ever get invited to be on one of those TV shows where sportswriters just yell at each other about stuff they don’t actually believe. You get some (hopefully) fun contrarian content to challenge your cherished assumptions and/or roll your eyes at. It will be fun.

At least, that’s what I thought before I started reading through your submissions. You people are messed up. You couldn’t let me ease into this, could you? Nope, you went right to the top shelf with just about the most slam dunk statements you could find. I’m surprised none of you went with “ice is cold”. Maybe next time.

But I said I’d give this a try, and I’m a man of my word. Let’s do this. You’re wrong about everything, and I’m going to prove it to you. (And as an added bonus, try to figure out which of these I actually believe.)

Note: Submissions questions have been edited for clarity and style.

The Mark Messier era in Vancouver was an unmitigated disaster. – Olivier C.

On the contrary, Olivier, you moron.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Weekend NHL rankings: Early season picks for the best, the worst and the best bandwagon teams

We’re back, it’s way too early, and we wouldn’t have it any other way. Welcome back to the weekend NHL rankings, in which I’ll start off every week of the season by serving up a Top Five, a Bottom Five, and a Bonus Five, with a few of the week’s more interesting teams tossed into the mix.

First, let’s be clear about what this ranking is all about. Those of you who’ve been around for past seasons should know the drill by now, and if so skip on down to the bandwagon rankings. But if you’re new, it’s worth a quick aside on what we’re actually trying to do here.

These rankings are meant to be a long-term view, where we try to figure out which team will win the Cup and which will finish dead last. That means that while we’ll still react to what we see on the ice and who beats who, short-term swings may not have as much impact as you’d expect. A team can be the Cup favorite even after a three-loss week, and one team beating another doesn’t necessarily mean they move up and take their spot. If you’d prefer a more short-term view, the Friday rankings have you covered. Around these parts, it’s more of a slow-and-steady approach.

That means we won’t overreact to a game or two here and there. It also means that if we’re wrong about a team from the start, we run the risk of staying wrong for longer than we need to, so the way-too-early opening rankings can matter. The gap between being conservative and just being stubborn can be a tricky one. Or at least, that’s what the comments section likes to tell me.

We’ll get to the power rankings in a bit. But first, this week’s Bonus Five, in which I’m going to help you find a second-favorite team.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Help me become a better contrarian

Hey folks…

I had an idea for something new this season I’d like to try. It would be a semi-regular column called The Contrarian or something similar. You send in a statement that you think is obvious or inarguable, and I’ll try to come up with the contrarian view.

It could be anything: A team that’s definitely good (or bad), a rule that should change, a historical argument… up to you.

Let’s try it out and see where it goes. Send me your sure-thing statement via email at dgbcontrarian@gmail.com.

Nobody understands the Bruins (and other lessons from your preseason predictions)

Every now and then, somebody will ask me why I take the time to set up the annual prediction contest. Why bother, when it takes so much work to scrape all the data from our (occasionally uncooperative) comment section, massage it into some kind of working shape, and then monitor the whole thing over the course of a full season?

The first answer is that I just like seeing how wrong you all are, and how sad that makes you feel.

But the second answer is that there’s a bonus to the contest, from my perspective: By getting a few thousand readers to put their pre-season predictions in writing, I end up with a treasure trove of data on what fans are thinking. I like to think that The Athletic’s readers are reasonably bright and well-informed, and while a prediction game isn’t a random sampling, it’s still a useful way to take the pulse of the hockey world.

So today, let’s set aside the contest aspect – we’ll check in on that later in the year – and just focus on what you told me about what you do and don’t believe heading into the 2023-24 season.

This is all based on an early pass on the data, which hasn’t been cleaned up yet. (Special thanks to contest wrangler Mike, who was able to get the initial pass done in record time.) We’ll focus on broad trends rather than specific numbers, but there’s still plenty to dig into.

Such as…

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Offering up an oddly specific prediction for all 32 NHL teams this year

This is my favorite prediction column to write each year.

Like most hockey writers, I produce more than my share of predictions. There’s my annual leaguewide look, which also went live today and can be found here. I was part of The Athletic’s staff-wide award picks. I’ve been making picks on podcasts, and radio hits, and probably in my sleep. It’s part of the lead up to opening night, and it’s fun.

But once a year, I let myself go overboard by making predictions for each team that are way too specific. Anyone can predict that a player will hit a milestone or break a record; I want to also give you the exact date it will happen. Some player is going to be in the running for an award? Not good enough, you deserve to know exactly where they’ll finish. Along the way, we also dig up a few weird odds and ends from the stat book. But the key is that in these parts, we don’t use words like “around” or “approximately” or “close enough”.

We also don’t use words like “correct” very often, but that’s half the appeal. And when I do nail one of these predictions – like picking the exact game in which Joel Hanley would score his first regular season goal, or the exact night that the Kings would take their only misconduct penalty of the season – then it goes without saying that I will never shut up about it.

The offseason lasted forever and real hockey is just hours away. Let’s get oddly specific.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Puck Soup: Predictions + who he play for

A new episode of the Puck Soup podcast has been posted:

>> Stream on the Puck Soup site
>> Listen on The Athletic
>> Subscribe on iTunes
>> Listen on Spotify

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.

From Stanley Cup contenders to bottom feeders: Predicting the NHL season

Opening night is almost here. Are you sick of predictions yet? Too bad, here comes another batch, as I’ve put together my annual attempt to sort the NHL into four divisions.

The rules, as always: I get just those four divisions, each with exactly eight teams. We’ll have the bottom-feeders, the middle-of-the-pack, the legitimate contenders, and then the teams where I just have no idea. That last one should honestly just have every team in it, but let’s not dwell on that.

Four divisions, starting with the dregs and working our way up. Will I get them all right? No. But will I nail at least a few? Not necessarily, to be honest. Let’s do this.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Make your picks for the prediction contest that's so easy it's almost impossible

It’s easy to look like a genius when you predict the NHL season. Just focus on the obvious, lay out everything that you know is going to happen, and feel confident in your unshakeable wisdom. And then – and this is the important part – don’t leave a public record anywhere, so nobody can look back in a few months and see how wrong you actually were.

That’s where this contest comes in. A few years ago, I got tired of everyone telling me how predictable the NHL was. Something would happen that I thought was unexpected, like the Golden Knights being good in year one, or the Sharks collapsing, or Barry Trtoz getting the Islanders into the playoffs. I’d express my surprise, and I’d inevitably hear from all sorts of fans who’d scoff. It was obvious all along, they’d tell me. And everyone with half a brain knew it.

OK, I finally said – prove it. And after a little bit of tinkering, my annual prediction contest was born. The premise was simple: Since the league is so easy to predict, I’d ask you some of the most basic questions imaginable. Nothing fancy or especially complicated. Just which teams would be good or bad, which coaches and GMs were on safe ground, and which players would be the stars of the season. If the prediction business was as easy as everyone said, you guys would crush it.

Gentle readers, you have not crushed it.

In three years, the contest has grown from 800 entries to 1,600 to last year’s 2,1000. And nobody has come close to an especially great score. Only a small handful have even managed a passing grade. You can check in on last year’s results here, when it turned out that you didn’t believe in the Kraken, you did believe in Darryl Sutter, and literally nobody thought old man Erik Karlsson was a Norris candidate. Like I said, not so simple… at least when someone is keeping track.

This year, we’ve got all the old classic questions returning, plus a brand new one that shines a spotlight on the middle-of-the-pack. And yes, the dreaded bonus question is back too. As always, the winner gets a signed copy of my book, plus the (infinitely more valuable) bragging rights that you actually called your shots.

Good luck. History says you’re going to need it.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

We found playoffs in a hopeless place: The case for the NHL's 10 worst teams

We’re now just a week away from the start of the NHL season, meaning hockey fans are being flooded with season previews. That’s great for most of us, as we head into a new year clinging to optimism and best-case scenarios. But for fans of teams that rebuilding or just plain bad, preview season just means that any lingering hope gets squeezed out, as every preview seems to echo the same theme: You’re bad, and you’re screwed.

That’s where today’s column comes in. For the last few years, I’ve looked to offer some optimism to fans of the worst teams. And not just garden-variety optimism, where things might go a little better than expected. I’m talking a world where everyone is wrong, your team is actually good, and they’re going to make noise in the playoffs.

It’s, uh… not easy.

That doesn’t mean it can’t work sometimes. For example, heading into last season the consensus was that the second-year Kraken would miss the playoffs and maybe even be in the mix for last place. I made the case for why they could be better, and maybe even win a round. Then they did.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that last year, our previews only had the Kraken as the tenth worst team, and the nine teams below them all missed the playoffs by healthy margins. Sometimes bad teams are just bad, and all the hope in the world can’t trump that reality. But we can try, if only to give a few fan bases a break from all the negativity.

Here’s the optimist’s view of the ten teams with the bleakest outlook heading into the 2023-24 season, based on the previews that Dom, Sean and Shayna have been churning out. We’ll start with the best of those teams, and work our way down to the dregs.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

(Want to read this post on The Athletic for free? Sign up for a free trial.)

Puck Soup: Best and worst

A new episode of the Puck Soup podcast has been posted:

>> Stream on the Puck Soup site
>> Listen on The Athletic
>> Subscribe on iTunes
>> Listen on Spotify

>> Get weekly mailbags and special bonus episodes by supporting Puck Soup on Patreon for $5.