31 oddly specific predictions for the 2018-19 season

Predicting​ what’s going to​ happen​ in​ the​ NHL​ is​ all but​ impossible in an​ age of parity​ that​ borders on coin-flipping.​​ You can choose to play it safe and stick with stating the obvious – Connor McDavid will score a lot, the Lightning will win a lot, the Senators not so much – but nobody is giving you any credit for that. Plus you’ll still probably find a way to be wrong.

As futile as the whole thing might be, we all keep trying. It’s pretty much mandatory. And when we inevitably miss, our kind readers are right there to remind us all about it.

But I’ve always figured that if you’re going to be wrong, at least be really wrong. So whenever I do preseason predictions, I like to make them as specific as possible. Anyone can point to a team and say they’ll make or miss the playoffs. Let’s try to pick the exact date for their 17^th win.

I’ve been doing this in some form or other for years, and you may be wondering how many have actually turned out to be right. To be honest, not many. But every now and then the blind squirrel finds a nut – check out the double-pronged beauty on the Montreal Canadiens two years ago – and that’s where the fun comes in.

So with a new season just a few days away, let’s dial up another round of Oddly Specific Predictions for every team in the league. As always, no warranty of accuracy is expressed or implied.

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Ottawa Senators – Erik Karlsson’s return with the San Jose Sharks on Dec. 1 stands as the hottest ticket of the season in Ottawa. But it’s Thomas Chabot who scores the winner that night, leading to a barrage of torch-passing narratives.

Buffalo Sabres – I picked Casey Mittelstadt as my Calder winner earlier in the preseason. He’s, uh, not exactly giving off that vibe based on training camp, but what the hell, let’s say he recovers to win a close race over Elias Pettersson. Hopefully the league doesn’t decide this one with a novelty raffle wheel.

Arizona Coyotes – After torpedoing their 2017-18 season before it even got off the ground with an 11-game losing streak, the Coyotes flip the script by starting off this year 4-0-0.

Calgary Flames – He’s running out of time at 36-years-old, so let’s make this the year that Mike Smith becomes the first goalie in NHL history to score a second, regular-season shoot-and-score goal.

Dallas Stars – Every year, I like to take a team that seems on the verge of a big move in either direction and pick them to annoy everyone by finishing with the same record as last year. The 92-point Stars fit the bill this season.

Chicago Blackhawks – If the Hawks are as bad as many seem to think they could be, it’s going to be a tough season in Chicago, and they’ll need someone to take out their frustrations on. Luckily, the schedule-maker serves up an old rival in the Blues four times in the season’s first six weeks. Let’s circle that fourth meeting, in Chicago on November 14, and say that something ugly happens. Maybe not a massacre, mind you, but something.

Colorado Avalanche – The Avalanche tied for the fewest shootouts in the league last year, with just three. This year, they have that many by the end of October.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Which of the big guns leads the team in scoring, Auston Matthews or John Tavares? Neither, as Mitch Marner sneaks past both to claim the crown (and eventually a huge new contract).

Washington Capitals – After rolling to three straight Metro Division titles, this edition of the Capitals fall all the way to third. Absolutely nobody in Washington cares.

Detroit Red Wings – Ken Holland tries really, really hard to make it through the season without replacing Jeff Blashill with Dan Bylsma. He fails, and the change is made in January.

Florida Panthers – They’re the easiest team in the league to predict, since everyone already has them locked into fourth place in the Atlantic. So it goes without saying that they won’t wind up there; instead, they sneak past one of the division’s Big Three and into third place.

Columbus Blue Jackets – They decide that going through the season with two star players about to hit UFA status just isn’t workable. So they make it three, pulling off a mid-season trade for Matt Duchene. Here’s hoping that works out better for them than for the last team that tried it.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

2018-19 season preview

For​ the last few​ years,​ I’ve​ done​ in-depth​ season​ previews for​ various sites, in​ which I would​ divide​ the NHL into​​ four divisions. But not the four divisions that the NHL itself used. Instead, I would use my own versions that seemed to capture the spirit of the thing a little better: The Bottom-Feeder Division, The Middle-of-the-Pack Division, The Contenders Division, and my personal favorite, the Your-Guess-Is-As-Good-As-Mine Division.

A full preview isn’t really necessary this year. If you’re a subscriber, you’ve already seen plenty of in-depth preview work from The Athletic’s various writers, including Dom Luszczyszyn’s epic team-by-team series. So I’m off the hook.

But I’m not sure I want to be. I think anyone who covers the NHL should have to make a few predictions, if only to keep us honest once the season starts and things inevitably go sideways. One of the most frustrating subplots of last year’s miracle Vegas Golden Knights season was the eventual emergence of voices who swore the whole thing was rigged and they knew it was coming all along. No they didn’t. None of us did. But if you don’t put your thoughts in writing before the season, you can convince yourself you’re a lot smarter than you really are.

When it comes to predicting the NHL, I’m not smart and never have been. But the least I can do is be honest about it. So for this year’s preview, we’ll strip away the key stats and storylines and players to watch and all the other pieces that others can do better. But we’ll keep the four divisions, if only so we can all look back and laugh when I’m proven wrong in eight months. Fine, two weeks.

Within each division, the teams aren’t listed in any particular order. Let’s start from the basement and work our way up.

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The Bottom-Feeder Division

These teams are all sure-things to be terrible next year. You know, like the Avalanche, Devils and Golden Knights last year.

Ottawa Senators

Last season: 28-43-11, 67 points, missed playoffs.

Offseason report: They’d rather not talk about it.

Why they’re here: Because just about everyone thinks it’s a lock that they’ll be the worst team in the league. Even Avalanche fans, who know a thing or two about unexpected turnarounds, seem to already be debating who to take with next year’s top-four pick.

Is there any reason to think that everyone is wrong and the Senators might actually be passable? Not really, at least based on a roster that’s already underwhelming and figures to get even worse as the rebuild sees veterans shipped out for futures. If anything, it’s all starting to feel like a little too much of a sure-thing and we know how those typically end up in today’s NHL. If the Senators do pull off a miracle and make a run at the postseason, or at least to .500, remember that I was the only one who thought there was any chance of it happening. Just not enough of one to move them out of this section.

Montreal Canadiens

Last season: 29-40-13, 71 points, missed playoffs.

Offseason report: They finally acquired that #1 NHL center they’ve been chasing for years. No, just kidding. They did trade away Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk though, so there’s that.

Why they’re here: The Canadiens seem like such a mess that it’s easy enough to forget that they were the Atlantic champs as recently as 2017. But with a rebuild underway and Shea Weber missing at least the first two months, there doesn’t seem to be a path to the playoffs that doesn’t involve Carey Price morphing back into MVP mode.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic